Kibicho versus ndindi

[hk]

Jubilee found the debts was around 25B dollars - and has doubled it 55B dollars - that is addition of 30B dollars - and economy has grown by 50B- so roughly Jubilee has leveraged well.Kibaki also borrowed heavily - although to his credit he reduced the debt to gdp from 60%(Moi) to 45% or around. But to do that Kibaki SOLD MANY gov jewels...Kengen, Safaricom etc. Jubilee have yet to sell any gov rabbit.

All that fueled by debt and almost zero organic growth. Its the policy and decisions made in the first 5yrs of jubilee that are ailing the economy now. There's nothing like universal health care, hell there's barely any basic healthcare in Kenya. When the government offers free maternity, unless someone is very desperate who would want to take their wife to pumwani? The key is having policies to lift people from poverty so that they can afford decent healthcare.
My question has always been what would Ruto do different as president that he hasn't been able to do as a DP?

Gov raised less than 5b through privatization. The budget deficit under kibaki was never over 4%. This heavy government spending mostly overpriced has led to crippling of the private sector. Mind you in kenya private sector represents more than 90% of the economy. A perfect example of what ails the country is pedestrian bridges being constructed on thika rd. 4 bridges cost a whopping ksh1.1b. By eliminating bumps on the highway it'll reduce traffic jam, this is obviously good for the economy. But the effect on economy is reduced due to overpricing and delays. It'd probably cost 100m for all those bridges, so in essence the economy is being sucked 1b and that money goes to an individual. There're many projects like that in Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

Who is generating all these revenues...now approaching 20B dollars...if the economy was struggling..it would show in economic data. We know sectors that are struggling now...real estata and construction..for example.

Gov raised less than 5b through privatization. The budget deficit under kibaki was never over 4%. This heavy government spending mostly overpriced has led to crippling of the private sector. Mind you in kenya private sector represents more than 90% of the economy. A perfect example of what ails the country is pedestrian bridges being constructed on thika rd. 4 bridges cost a whopping ksh1.1b. By eliminating bumps on the highway it'll reduce traffic jam, this is obviously good for the economy. But the effect on economy is reduced due to overpricing and delays. It'd probably cost 100m for all those bridges, so in essence the economy is being sucked 1b and that money goes to an individual. There're many projects like that in Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

Because Uhuru is not ready to give a collateral - Chinese asked them about politics and feasibility studies.Everyone and their mother knows Nairobi-Malaba is not viable unless Uganda commit to carry their cargo on it.

So how does Uhuru running again become collateral to anything?

[hk]

Who is generating all these revenues...now approaching 20B dollars...if the economy was struggling..it would show in economic data. We know sectors that are struggling now...real estata and construction..for example.

Gov raised less than 5b through privatization. The budget deficit under kibaki was never over 4%. This heavy government spending mostly overpriced has led to crippling of the private sector. Mind you in kenya private sector represents more than 90% of the economy. A perfect example of what ails the country is pedestrian bridges being constructed on thika rd. 4 bridges cost a whopping ksh1.1b. By eliminating bumps on the highway it'll reduce traffic jam, this is obviously good for the economy. But the effect on economy is reduced due to overpricing and delays. It'd probably cost 100m for all those bridges, so in essence the economy is being sucked 1b and that money goes to an individual. There're many projects like that in Kenya.

That's driven by huge budgets. If you hired one million civil servants the government would collect billions from PAYE but that doesn't mean there's marginal difference to the economy. Its literally shifting money from one pocket to the other.

[RV Pundit]

Gov taxes private sector too.Agriculture is doing okay. Manufacturing is doing okay.Tourism is doing fine. Financial & Intermediation doing okay.Transportation, ICT, name them are okay. Only real estate and construction have serious issues now.

That's driven by huge budgets. If you hired one million civil servants the government would collect billions from PAYE but that doesn't mean there's marginal difference to the economy. Its literally shifting money from one pocket to the other.

[RV Pundit]

Look like it backfired badly - they didn't even charge him.

Raila and BBI and Handshake  - Jubilee imekataa kata kata. You cannot force it. Or use money on it.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001341428/no-charges-against-kiharu-mp-nyoro

[Nefertiti]

Of course Tanga Tanga have rejected the Handshake. That's not news. The real work is taking the party from Uhuru's grasp. It next to impossible without outright UDM-like mayhem. I told you Jubilee would need GSU or Recce to keep the peace - to hold a mere PG or delegate conference. With Handshake Uhuru has a carte blanche to rain blows on Ruto midgets until 2022. 

[RV Pundit]

Kieleweke are stuck with Maina Kamabda and Wambugu...of the 67 GEMA MPs nearly 60 are backing Ruto..nearly all from Nakuru,Laikipia,Meru,Tharaka,Embu,most of central 5 counties and Nairobi are backing Ruto.Outside GEMA nearly all Jubilee MPs except Kuttuny and few in Gusii are Ruto damu.Its been two years since Nancy and Kibicho got the assignment..and yet in their counties of muranga and nyeri they have zero traction.. despite the billions expended, the police forces,KRA,DCI,NIS and DPP.Tell me of any failed project like that.Their trump card is BBI otherwise Uhuru is a lame duck going home.BBI referendum is the rubbicon..if Uhuru is serious we will know then.

[Nefertiti]

I see you have a new "rubicon" called referendum. All your redlines recede with the horizon as we approach them. Ruto does not have enough muscle to counter Uhuru. The fight is at his doorstep and he can't fight back. We are watching live circus as the Gema mnofu is brutally pulled out of his jaws.

[KenyanPlato]

Kieleweke are stuck with Maina Kamabda and Wambugu...of the 67 GEMA MPs nearly 60 are backing Ruto..nearly all from Nakuru,Laikipia,Meru,Tharaka,Embu,most of central 5 counties and Nairobi are backing Ruto.Outside GEMA nearly all Jubilee MPs except Kuttuny and few in Gusii are Ruto damu.Its been two years since Nancy and Kibicho got the assignment..and yet in their counties of muranga and nyeri they have zero traction.. despite the billions expended, the police forces,KRA,DCI,NIS and DPP.Tell me of any failed project like that.Their trump card is BBI otherwise Uhuru is a lame duck going home.BBI referendum is the rubbicon..if Uhuru is serious we will know then.

Which 60 are supporting ruto?

[KenyanPlato]

Ruto is being milked dry.

Robina you are funny ati ruto munofu is being pulled out of his jaws

[MOON Ki]

Moonki here is the article from Economist
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/06/29/china-is-thinking-twice-about-lending-to-africa

I see.   The article does say that they "even" asked him if he intended to run again.  What I don't see is anything that would lead you the conclusion that that was the main reason for Kenya's failure to get a loan .... where you write that

- Chinese asked if he intended to run again - and because he was non-committal - Chinese also backed off.

Instead, had you read the entire Economist article and not just that one line, you would have found a more plausible reason:

(If you really know about Chinese finding of African etc. projects, then I'm sure you must have been aware of all the news---in China and outside China---of Sinosure and Exim's concerns about dodgy loans.)

By the way, given how much that one "even" line the  Economist excited you, and your apparent faith in the "credible news", did you see the other lines in the same article?   The ones that  come before the throw-away "even" one ...

Corruption made it a ludicrously expensive venture, costing twice the international average per kilometre of track. It was meant to be cheaper to ship goods up the line than send them by road.China seems to have belatedly realised that throwing good money after bad would be an error.  So it is embracing caution instead.

"Stuff of legends"?  Kenyan legends, perhaps.  But Chinese workers putting up structures quickly---relative to what Kenyans would have done, if they knew how to do the job, which they still don't---is not uncommon, and I can't imagine why Chinese abilities should excite you so much.    I would rather you told me about Kenyan legends (other than "eating", of course).

And you also seem to have confused yourself in writing that

Chinese don't care about commercial viability. Uhuru can get the money if he wants today - he just need to give some collateral.

They don't care about commercial viability, but they want collateral?   Very strange people.

[MOON Ki]

Gov taxes private sector too.Agriculture is doing okay. Manufacturing is doing okay.Tourism is doing fine. Financial & Intermediation doing okay.Transportation, ICT, name them are okay. Only real estate and construction have serious issues now.

The latest Quarterly GDP report from KNBS shows a slowdown in all sectors of the economy.

[hk]

A healthy growing economy doesn't necessitates "brutal cuts"  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/kenya-vows-brutal-travel-cuts-as-3-6-billion-of-projects-stall?srnd=premium-africa .  Why do we have stalled projects? Anyhow chicken are coming home to roost.  Meanwhile the Kenya shilling has lost sh20 since 2013 to 2019, from 86 to now 106.

[RV Pundit]

2nd Q or 1st Q - I think 1Q - we at nearly 24B dollars. I think despite all the problems - we will be very shy of 100B dollars this year.

The latest Quarterly GDP report from KNBS shows a slowdown in all sectors of the economy.

[RV Pundit]

The pending bills - they need to sort that out - I think it's been addressed because it was causing problems to everyone - from banks (NPL) to economy. Kshs has depreciated less than nearly all other Africa currencies. Check at say Tanzania or Uganda or Nigeria or South Africa. Kibaki at some point had kshs 63 then I remember Kimunya sweating when it got 107. CBK as always wanted Kshs depreciated to 100 - and that has been the sweatspot - but UG/TZ depriciation makes our exports there expensive - and their imports cheap-- and that is the problem we have now.

A healthy growing economy doesn't necessitates "brutal cuts"  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/kenya-vows-brutal-travel-cuts-as-3-6-billion-of-projects-stall?srnd=premium-africa .  Why do we have stalled projects? Anyhow chicken are coming home to roost.  Meanwhile the Kenya shilling has lost sh20 since 2013 to 2019, from 86 to now 106.

[hk]

The pending bills - they need to sort that out - I think it's been addressed because it was causing problems to everyone - from banks (NPL) to economy. Kshs has depreciated less than nearly all other Africa currencies. Check at say Tanzania or Uganda or Nigeria or South Africa. Kibaki at some point had kshs 63 then I remember Kimunya sweating when it got 107. CBK as always wanted Kshs depreciated to 100 - and that has been the sweatspot - but UG/TZ depriciation makes our exports there expensive - and their imports cheap-- and that is the problem we have now.

A healthy growing economy doesn't necessitates "brutal cuts"  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/kenya-vows-brutal-travel-cuts-as-3-6-billion-of-projects-stall?srnd=premium-africa .  Why do we have stalled projects? Anyhow chicken are coming home to roost.  Meanwhile the Kenya shilling has lost sh20 since 2013 to 2019, from 86 to now 106.

The reason for pending bills is cause government doesn't have money(enough). The government can't raise enough revenue to meet the envisioned budget while at the same time treasury is trying to keep budget deficit at least below 7%. Last financial yr, budget deficit was 7.7%, that's nosebleed level. This budget deficit and heavy spending on ill-thought out projects is going to haunt jubilee. Or we might muddle along with an economy which dynamism is hampered despite GDP number both nominal and real GDP.

[RV Pundit]

I think deficit is now down to 5% and target is 3.5% in medium term.. we are not borrowing just refinancing..we need to restart privitazation when NSE bear run ends

[hk]

I think deficit is now down to 5% and target is 3.5% in medium term.. we are not borrowing just refinancing..we need to restart privitazation when NSE bear run ends

The last financial year budget deficit was 7.7% and it was probably higher if we factor in things like pensions. This will only exacerbate since jubilee government keep raising budget size without commensurate kra collection to finance the budget. 

[RV Pundit]

2018/2019 - was 6.3 per cent. This year the target is 5.6%. Medium term Treasury is 3%. We are not doing any leveraging. Just refinancing. This year I think we are set to repay 6-7B dollars and borrow 6-8B dollars. Our gdp this year will be 99-100B dollars.

The last financial year budget deficit was 7.7% and it was probably higher if we factor in things like pensions. This will only exacerbate since jubilee government keep raising budget size without commensurate kra collection to finance the budget.