But we had the same scenario in Kenya. In 2002 Luos voted for Kibaki to a man and Orengo received not more than 5% of luo vote. In 2007 luos voted against Kibaki to a man. What changed was not tribe but issues. Kale's voted for Raila to a men in 2007 and against him in 2013. I think tribalism or racism or regionalism or religion will always be factors but you need an issue to sway it one way or the other. You cannot rely on tribalism or racism to be the only factor in every single election. The 206 US election was perfect for racism but the issue was CHANGE from the Obama years. Trump cannot run the same campaign in 2020 and expect the same results. 2020 will be about his achievements and blatent racism like he did this year will not work.
In Kenya ICC case against Ouru and Ruto united kikuyus and Kalenjins. In 2017 the bond between the Kalenjins and the Kikuyus will not be as strong as in 2013 because the ICC issue is no longer there. They will have to create another issue to strengthen their bond or ouru will loose a lot of Kale's. I do not know if he will lose enough kale's to lose the elections but one thing I know, in 2022, Ruto needs a brand new issue to keep Kale's and kikuyus together and I do not know where he will find that issue. On the CORD side, they too need an issue to get the other tribes bonded. I do not know if "corruption" will do it for them but they have to give it a shot. In conclusion, tribalism and racism alone cannot do it-you need a STRONG ISSUE whether in Kenya or in the United States to combine with tribalism or racism to win. This only works if the elections are free and fair. If elections are not free and fair as in Kenya then it does not matter.
I agree with some of what you say, but you come down to saying there must be an issue that the voters care about enough to vote for the "outsider". Me? I just don't see what issue gets Kikuyus to vote against a
strong Kikuyu contender. The equivalent of Ouru or Raila (for Luos). What gets Kikuyus to vote against an Ouru for a Luo or for Luos to vote against a Raila for a Kyuk guy? Orengo is small fish. Like Peter Kenneth. When Luos votes for Kibaki, they were voing for Raila. When Kalenjins voted for Ouru in 2002, they were voting for Baba Moi. When Kalenjin voted for Raila in 2002 they were voting for Samoei and AGAINST Kibaki's treatment of Kalenjins in 2003; When they voted for Ouru in 2013, they were voting for Samoei and AGAINST what they saw as Raila's betrayal.
But Obama wasn't facing small fish. He was facing first Hillary who had been the favourite...How did she loose to him, when she was White, he was Black and a neophyte without much experience at that? Then he was facing the Republican Nominee. Granted, the economic crash did not work in McCain's favor, but Obama had another go at Romney, a VERY good White Candidate, and still beat him handily. Those very states that gave Obama the Presidency are the ones that have now given Trump the presidency. The swing states. It can't be that when they vote for Dems, they are good people and when they vote for Trump, the same ones are now deplorable racists! If racism was as important as the Left makes it, Obama would never have smelt anything close to winning at the Primaries against a strong Democrat and then twice nationally against the entire Republican machinery.
Also, when we act like we know people's motivations better than themselves, that is what I am rejecting. These people are screaming and complaining about what is bothering them. People on the left just ignore that and substitute it with telepathically derived know-how about the 'REAL MOTIVES' lurking in the dark. I see that kind of us-them demonization at home. But for us it is ethnic. For them it is liberal-Conservative or Dem-Republican. So Dems are good and kind and intelligent and enlightened, while Republicans are evil and racist. This is surely ridiculous. To me, it looks like the first step towards something really bad down the line, like a civil war. It is when people start treating other people like a caricature. It is how you divide a country beyond repair.
Both sides are guilty but because the Left has had an upper hand in the last 8 years, it has been most visible coming from them than from the Right.