Martha Karua has made a smart political choice

[RV Pundit]

We are still some light years to issue-based ideological politics. You need to understand the nature of our politics something you seem incapable after spending many years in trumphsland. Here in kenya the path to presidency is to slowly build a personal base, then tribal base, then once you've consolidated that, to try to build regional or national base, and now with 50% requirement & with many fragmented tribes; to make a deal. Martha has never gotten this. She has no friends. She has no networks. She has no base. She has no money. This is why she is now running back to Kirinyanga to start again. Raila has all the igredient but right now age is his biggest undoing. He cannot agree to deputize anybody. Ruto in the meantime is just waging a war of attrition on Raila as he waits for him to age. By 2022...Raila would be 78yrs or about - that is no age to ran for PORK. Ruto will be 55yrs.

So AGE is very important. You need time in politics to slowly build. You don't just wake up like Martha Karua or Raila in 97 and run for PORK - even if you have NO SHOT at all. It waste of time and money - and more importantly waste of opportunity to leverage that 4-7% for some position.Luckly raila made something with 10% in 97 by joining KANU . You have to work loyally for gov, rise from mp, to ministers, to DP to PORK while building your up network and arsenal - growing your allies all over the country. The very few times Raila has tried this - he has come closer to power - see 02 when he build himself in KANU --NARC time- and pre-2013 in 50-50 .We are now agreed that governorship is a new path for leadership. I see the likes of Mutua, kidero and Joho as future leaders if they play their cards. I don't see how Martha or Kenneth can retrace their steps back - and find themselves back in contention. First if they lose the governorship - they are dead and buried.

Politics is not about age, its about ideas and issues.  The USA just elected a 70 year old president after electing Obama in 2008 when he was only 46.  Kenya is maturing very fast politically-thanks to devolution, multi-party and freedom of speech and expression all enshrined in the new katiba. If corruption will be the next big issue then Martha Karua and Raila will be relevant regardless of their age. The new generation may not identify with the 2nd liberation but they understand corruption, tribalism and ineptitude.  Separate your personal opinions from facts. Raila is very relevant today because the issues he raises are relevant regardless of his age. Even if he loses in 2017 he can still run in 2022 if the issues are still relevant-he will only be 75 years old.

[Kichwa]

You are contradicting yourself. What you are selling as universal truth is "Ruto's" plan to presidency which may fail miserably. So how long in your estimation does it take to build "personal base" + "tribal base" + consolidate + the "regional base" and then I guess "national base".  If that is the "magic recipe" for the presidency of Kenya then it may take a Ndorobo 100 years to be the president. 

I will never buy the lie that the presidency of Kenya is purely tribal.  Every election is different.  I do not believe its an ideology either but more like the pressing "issue" of the day.  The issue could be "change" it could be "ICC" it could be "corruption", " poverty" "ineptness" etc.  Tribe will always be a background factor.  The 2002 election was about "change" or "getting rid of Moi" and that is why it was easy for luos to get together with kikuyus.  In 2013 the issue had changed and therefore the coalition of tribes changed.  I believe "issue" is the driving factor that informs the combination of tribes that will form a winning coalition.  The issue in 2017, and 2022 will be different and that will inform the tribal combination that will prevail.  Kalenjins are not going to be together every single year just like the luos could not sustain their coalition beyond 2002 elections or their coalition with Kalenjins beyond 2007 elections.  I can see a scenario where the issue of the election where Kalenjins and Luos could be together, or Kikuyus and luos could come together.  It is very difficult to predict which issue will be the most important issue of any particular election until a few months into the election or sometimes the issue will only be clear after the elections.  In 2002 it was change, in 2007 Raila won but the elections was stolen, and in 2013 the issue was ICC.  The issue of 2017 maybe corruption but that may change. In 2022 its definitely going to be change if ouru wins and that means it will be the worst year for Ruto to run for the presidency.  Young kalenjins and Kikuyus will not be beholden to their pact of 2013.

We are still some light years to issue-based ideological politics. You need to understand the nature of our politics something you seem incapable after spending many years in trumphsland. Here in kenya the path to presidency is to slowly build a personal base, then tribal base, then once you've consolidated that, to try to build regional or national base, and now with 50% requirement & with many fragmented tribes; to make a deal. Martha has never gotten this. She has no friends. She has no networks. She has no base. She has no money. This is why she is now running back to Kirinyanga to start again. Raila has all the igredient but right now age is his biggest undoing. He cannot agree to deputize anybody. Ruto in the meantime is just waging a war of attrition on Raila as he waits for him to age. By 2022...Raila would be 78yrs or about - that is no age to ran for PORK. Ruto will be 55yrs.

So AGE is very important. You need time in politics to slowly build. You don't just wake up like Martha Karua or Raila in 97 and run for PORK - even if you have NO SHOT at all. It waste of time and money - and more importantly waste of opportunity to leverage that 4-7% for some position.Luckly raila made something with 10% in 97 by joining KANU . You have to work loyally for gov, rise from mp, to ministers, to DP to PORK while building your up network and arsenal - growing your allies all over the country. The very few times Raila has tried this - he has come closer to power - see 02 when he build himself in KANU --NARC time- and pre-2013 in 50-50 .We are now agreed that governorship is a new path for leadership. I see the likes of Mutua, kidero and Joho as future leaders if they play their cards. I don't see how Martha or Kenneth can retrace their steps back - and find themselves back in contention. First if they lose the governorship - they are dead and buried.

Politics is not about age, its about ideas and issues.  The USA just elected a 70 year old president after electing Obama in 2008 when he was only 46.  Kenya is maturing very fast politically-thanks to devolution, multi-party and freedom of speech and expression all enshrined in the new katiba. If corruption will be the next big issue then Martha Karua and Raila will be relevant regardless of their age. The new generation may not identify with the 2nd liberation but they understand corruption, tribalism and ineptitude.  Separate your personal opinions from facts. Raila is very relevant today because the issues he raises are relevant regardless of his age. Even if he loses in 2017 he can still run in 2022 if the issues are still relevant-he will only be 75 years old.

[Empedocles]

Karua, like Kenneth, is gearing up to try getting the MKM nod in 2022 and needs too build her support.

Ruto should ask Kalonzo for advice.

[Kichwa]

Governorship is a very good office to launch a presidential run.  Come 2022 nobody will remember the OURUTO MOU of 2013 like most MOU's. Kenya's politics is very volatile and nobody can tell me today that they know the burning political issues of 2022. If you do not know the issues of 2022 then how can one know which tribal combinations to put together and win the 2022 elections.  Kalenjins and kikuyus came together in 2013 because of ICC. In 2017 and 2022 there will be other issues which may make that coalition unattainable. The strong sympathy and connection that Kikuyus felt towards Ruto in 2013 because of ICC will not be there in 2022. Folks will have forgotten about all that. Ruto must come up with new reasons to get the kikuyu support in 2022.  If corruption is the issue then Ruto does not have a chance because he is known as the High Priest of corruption in certain quaters.

Karua, like Kenneth, is gearing up to try getting the MKM nod in 2022 and needs too build her support.

Ruto should ask Kalonzo for advice.