There is something we call inflexion point.
You keep pushing and pushing - and it appear you're not making effort - until you're
UDA winning Mswabweni consolidated Kwale...where shy governor and mwashetani of lunga lunga were already doing good job.
Sonko is limited to Mombasa and he nails Joho.
Now move on to Kilifi - Kingi will affect Kilifi - together with Aisha - and UDA top gun now (Owen Baya) - you can see Kilifi flipping with Giriamas
Tana River is 50-50 game though Ruto seem to have upperhand now - having won Pokomos and rest orma will split.
Lamu is 50-50 - GEMA are in mpeketoni - Bajunis are split
Ruto struggles now in Coast are restricted to Taita Taveta - where he seen as new Kenyatta/Criticos - he need to address that issues.
i don't buy that because Ruto and his handouts, economic forums, bottom-up, name it is anything but new. Kingi grumbling about land is not new either - just switched sides but his PAA trailing UDA, ODM in all polls.
Jumwa and Mung"aro have been running for a year at least.
only real new thing in Pwani is Sonko - who is Wiper/Azimio. His battle with Nassir or Joho will not affect Raila and Ruto. No, in fact I expect him to softly drum up Raila.
Raila has remained ahead despite 4yr offensive by Ruto. Hakuna UDA wave huko.. that works in Kalenjin.
places "momentum" is working is Gema where Karua DPORK is new. And Luhya where UDA utapeli is becoming more apparent.