You're naive. Moi had very brilliant people. He appointed proffesors and phds in all critical positions. Biwott was very brilliant. Saitoti is mathematics genius - I think one of world top 1000 mathematicians who nailed hardest field of maths- topology- with phd in his 20s. Kanyottu whom moi kept as NIS head was brilliant - with photographic memory. Brig Boinnet is a genius - also with photographic memory. Dr Sally Kosgey was very brilliant - stanford university and taught pretty much most of those orengos or nyongos at UON. Moi had Prof Mbithis, Dr Karanjas. Kibaki was very brilliant.
Moi was able to identify and keep Ruto when he proved his brillaince - he even allowed him to sit in Cabinet - despite being Ass Minister
Moi was not educated to high levels but he valued intelligence. That is how he maintained power for 24yrs despite coming from a small tribe then.
You say the opposition did not unite. My friend they were MADE NOT TO UNITE.
Things just dont happen- they are made to happen. You see Ruto winning PORK having demolish any competiton from Mt Kenya and you think It JUST HAPPENED. RUTO MADE IT HAPPEN.
If MOi had not secured MOU with undertaking from the Americans - kenya would have gone to dogs easily. Mois and his crew know how VERY EASY to incite Kalenji. You do not need to incite them. Just burn a few houses and pretend they are kikuyus burning them. Kalenjin will raise a war cry - and the entire Kalenjin nation will respond in matters of hours. That is how 1992 PEV was started out of nowhere. Biwott had NIS provoke - Luos, Kikuyus, Luhyas and Gusii start the war...literally provoke the war....knowing Kalenjin would respond in few hours.
Then due to war - hand it over to military to secure peace.
That was Plan B - until Brig Boinnet and Americans convinced both Kibaki and Moi to sign MOu.
When was it signed - long time ago - Moi knew six month or about that UHURU HAD DRUNK WATER>
YOU THINK MOI KNEW ELECTION DATE THAT UHURU WILL LOSE?
Once Raila said TOSHA it was OVER for Uhuru. MOi had NIS doing surveys. Those six months or so - before election - that is when PLAN B and C were kicking in - do we escape abroad? do we start secession war? do we hand over to military? to be wait to be finished?
It is likely NOW - people are on PLAN B OR C OR D - others are probably buying houses abroad.
Thats precisely how Moi managed to survive Power . After 1982 Moi never wanted any Brilliant people near him , Look at all the people he appointed from the forces to his Cabinet and yes Biwott is the same caliber like the rest . Worse is that his opponents were more foolish that wih their might they never united to go against Moi . That was tragedy of Kenyan politics from 1982 to 2002.
So when did this secret pact happen when Kibaki was ill and in and out of the country due to the Mombasa road accident .
You and your war stories - There is noway there would have been violence in RV 2002 same as 2013 and 2017 and now 2022 . Simply because of inciting . Raila managed to do that because the Tribes living in RV were in different formations .