1. Most likely the Tribunal will find a way of throwing back the arguments back to the combatants. Like ask Kositany to demand for NEC meeting to ratify or reject the KANU pact; that would be a smart way for the Tribunal to get itself out of it. In any case, Uhuru and his groups are not in the mood of following any laws/legislation or procedures. It's brute force.
2. Technically, nothing has changed. Only this time Uhuru is using State power to muscle out Murkomen and other parliamentary leaders not of his liking. I say so because the split between UHuru/Ruto has been so obvious for a while. The current ongoings confirm so.
3. As far as political ground support is concerned, nothing has changed. Ruto still has significant support plus Mt. Kenya is still with him. Even now the attitude is "Let Uhuru do what he wants, na sisi tutafanya venye tutafanya. Tuko na Ruto.." Thus basics remain unchanged.
4. Unless Raila/Uhuru group find a way of making sure Ruto is NOT on 2022 Ballot, the Hustler is STILL the front-runner. The ONLY thing that can alter that fact is IF Uhuru/Raila groups amend the Constitution as per their BBI intentions. Especially under the current set up of President/Deputy, and it be Raila vs Ruto; BE ASSURED HUSTLER IS THE NEXT PRESIDENT.
5. But Ruto should be fearful. Very fearful. You see as i have stated before Uhuru group developed hatred/loathing for Ruto and they can do anything to make sure he doesn't become President. Then State House hired Mutahi Ngunyi as Political Advisor. This Mutahi Ngunyi character totally believes in Machiavelli political principles such as if you have your "enemy" on the run, NEVER show mercy until you have vanquished them in totality. He will be advising for much more bold moves.
And then there is Raila who also has some kind of personal issue with Ruto; heard him say in contempt how Ruto is a "disrespectful young man who should be taught some lessons..." But more importantly bear in mind Raila is probably the BIGGEST BENEFICIARY of Jubilee internal warfare and its obvious he has ambition to be President (or PM) and Ruto is his CHIEF OPPONENT at the moment. In short, all these sharks are cycling to finish Ruto completely. It is not easy being WSR at the moment.
6. Very few people understand Uhuru gameplan here. He's solidifying his "brotherhood" with Raila, but to what end?