Can A Free Ruto Shit on GEMAS cake?

[RV Pundit]

Here is Uhuru asking Mt kenya to back Ruto
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000198395/support-ruto-in-2022-uhuru-tells-mt-kenya

[RV Pundit]

All the stars for now are aligned for Uhuru in 17 and Ruto in 2012. The factors that will work for ruto in 2012 include Uhuru/gema support, collapse of ICC games, new demographic changes by then and north rift oil that will be flowing donw.

[jakoyo]

WSR was paid billions by GEMA to back Uhuru. Alishalipwa. What else does he want ? That is constant narrative.

[RV Pundit]

Narrative by who. When was Ruto paid. Street rumours. Uhuru is the guy who will determine  Ruto fate..and Uhuru clears owes Ruto & RV alot. He won't be PORK if it had not been for RV propping him and supporting him all those years.

WSR was paid billions by GEMA to back Uhuru. Alishalipwa. What else does he want ? That is constant narrative.

[Nefertiti]

I pray Gema sticks to "our man" so silly tribal politics can unravel. Leaders should be picked on performance not MOUs and tribal loyalties.

MERITOCRACY   

[MOON Ki]

Narrative by who. When was Ruto paid. Street rumours. Uhuru is the guy who will determine  Ruto fate..and Uhuru clears owes Ruto & RV alot. He won't be PORK if it had not been for RV propping him and supporting him all those years.

I agree with your earlier comment that Ruto looks set for 2022.   There are those who say---Terminator here, for example---that the dynamics could change before then.    Possible.   But voting in Kenya is a simple tribal affair, and the nature of that won't change in 6 years.    So, unless Jubilee really f**ks up, the stage is set: the same numbers game----who gets them registered to vote, who gets them showing up to vote.   

But I disagree with you on how much of a role Uhuru will play in 2022; and it's not just the past and current "propping up".   Uhuru's hands are tied.   GEMA has a simple choice: Support Ruto (whom they can control) or go it alone and lose (to ???).    And there, Ruto has a strong hand to play: If GEMA doesn't support him, he goes back to his old CORD friends.   He laments on the iniquities of GEMA and how they can't be trusted to honour a deal.   Liars and thieves, they stabbed him in the  back and stole from him.  Etc.  Etc.   Etc.   His audience will only be too happy and prepared to hear and believe all of  that.   Welcome back, Brother Samoei; nasty folks there in Central.   Didn't we tell you?  Still, you are now back among friends and comrade.  Much loved by one and all. (Aside: Done deal.  Board-boy, put a "tick" next to "RV". Non-stop to State House.)  And the GEMA lads know that too.

Whether Ruto was paid for or was bought is actually irrelevant.    The clueless and disorganized Opposition have nothing to offer him, whereas GEMA both owes him (as RV Pundit has pointed out) and also need him.   The former means nothing in politics; the latter means a great deal.

Another thing is that in 2022 Ruto could attract votes beyond Central and the RV.   There is no doubt that he is a very capable fellow.   But so far, he has focused on (starting under Moi) electoral violence and theft fuelled by seemingly endless greed.   If he could sell the message that his bad ways are a thing of the past ...

[RV Pundit]

It won't be easy for Gema to short-change Ruto.For the same reason Uhuru has honoured the MOU by making 50-50 appointment in all areas including critical ministries (unlike even NARA international negotiated deal), GEMA will not find a reason not to give Ruto is 10.Certainly Ruto will make it very hard for anyone to do that..by being loyal dependable ally and yet a hard negotiator behind the scenes.Then there is unspoken reality...Ruto holds the fate of 1M GEMA diaspora in RV in his hands. He doesn't need to plan or pre-plan any violence but Kalenjin will rise in great anger of betrayal and cause unprecedented violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame.The GEMA diaspora thanks to way they were settled will always remain a political hot potato.

I agree with your earlier comment that Ruto looks set for 2022.   There are those who say---Terminator here, for example---that the dynamics could change before then.    Possible.   But voting in Kenya is a simple tribal affair, and the nature of that won't change in 6 years.    So, unless Jubilee really f**ks up, the stage is set: the same numbers game----who gets them registered to vote, who gets them sho
wing up to vote.   

But I disagree with you on how much of a role Uhuru will play in 2022; and it's not just the past and current "propping up".   Uhuru's hands are tied.   GEMA has a simple choice: Support Ruto (whom they can control) or go it alone and lose (to ???).    And there, Ruto has a strong hand to play: If GEMA doesn't support him, he goes back to his old CORD friends.   He laments on the iniquities of GEMA and how they can't be trusted to honour a deal.   Liars and thieves, they stabbed him in the  back and stole from him.  Etc.  Etc.   Etc.   His audience will only be too happy and prepared to hear and believe all of  that.   Welcome back, Brother Samoei; nasty folks there in Central.   Didn't we tell you?  Still, you are now back among friends and comrade.  Much loved by one and all. (Aside: Done deal.  Board-boy, put a "tick" next to "RV". Non-stop to State House.)  And the GEMA lads know that too.

Whether Ruto was paid for or was bought is actually irrelevant.    The clueless and disorganized Opposition have nothing to offer him, whereas GEMA both owes him (as RV Pundit has pointed out) and also need him.   The former means nothing in politics; the latter means a great deal.

[MOON Ki]

It won't be easy for Gema to short-change Ruto.For the same reason Uhuru has honoured the MOU by making 50-50 appointment in all areas including critical ministries (unlike even NARA international negotiated deal), GEMA will not find a reason not to give Ruto is 10.Certainly Ruto will make it very hard for anyone to do that..by being loyal dependable ally and yet a hard negotiator behind the scenes.Then there is unspoken reality...Ruto holds the fate of 1M GEMA diaspora in RV in his hands. He doesn't need to plan or pre-plan any violence but Kalenjin will rise in great anger of betrayal and cause unprecedented violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame.The GEMA diaspora thanks to way they were settled

Sounds nasty and unpleasant, but that's the reality.    Given all that, here's something I've been wondering about and on which point you could shed some light: Why didn't Ruto go for 5-years-GEMA, 5-years-RV, 5-years-GEMA, 5-years-RV, ...? 

The context is this: GEMA might support a Ruto post-22 presidency, but one can be sure that they will either cripple it or somehow maintain control.   The key to either path is what happens in the next 5 years.

Oh, here's a thought on "violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame": The ICC cases failed, but all now know what it would take to make such cases stick (or fail), and I have no doubt that all Kenyan politicians will henceforth keep all that in mind.    (We can argue it later, but I believe the ICC prosecutions are ultimately good for Kenya, even if nobody got locked up.)   So, if I were one of the lads who control GEMA, one of the things I would be doing, in the face of such an obvious (even if implicit) threat of violence would be keeping a sharp eye on people and maintaining meticulous records.   2017-2022 Neutralization: "This time you don't burn our women and children in a church and away with it; we've been keeping tabs."

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Narrative by who. When was Ruto paid. Street rumours. Uhuru is the guy who will determine  Ruto fate..and Uhuru clears owes Ruto & RV alot. He won't be PORK if it had not been for RV propping him and supporting him all those years.

I agree with your earlier comment that Ruto looks set for 2022.   There are those who say---Terminator here, for example---that the dynamics could change before then.    Possible.   But voting in Kenya is a simple tribal affair, and the nature of that won't change in 6 years.    So, unless Jubilee really f**ks up, the stage is set: the same numbers game----who gets them registered to vote, who gets them showing up to vote.   

But I disagree with you on how much of a role Uhuru will play in 2022; and it's not just the past and current "propping up".   Uhuru's hands are tied.   GEMA has a simple choice: Support Ruto (whom they can control) or go it alone and lose (to ???).    And there, Ruto has a strong hand to play: If GEMA doesn't support him, he goes back to his old CORD friends.   He laments on the iniquities of GEMA and how they can't be trusted to honour a deal.   Liars and thieves, they stabbed him in the  back and stole from him.  Etc.  Etc.   Etc.   His audience will only be too happy and prepared to hear and believe all of  that.   Welcome back, Brother Samoei; nasty folks there in Central.   Didn't we tell you?  Still, you are now back among friends and comrade.  Much loved by one and all. (Aside: Done deal.  Board-boy, put a "tick" next to "RV". Non-stop to State House.)  And the GEMA lads know that too.

Whether Ruto was paid for or was bought is actually irrelevant.    The clueless and disorganized Opposition have nothing to offer him, whereas GEMA both owes him (as RV Pundit has pointed out) and also need him.   The former means nothing in politics; the latter means a great deal.

Another thing is that in 2022 Ruto could attract votes beyond Central and the RV.   There is no doubt that he is a very capable fellow.   But so far, he has focused on (starting under Moi) electoral violence and theft fuelled by seemingly endless greed.   If he could sell the message that his bad ways are a thing of the past ...

And he is corrupt as hell yet he is not even at the top.  GEMA will see that as a problem, not because corruption is a problem per se, but because he is not their man.  He is not one of them.  They only needed him to save one of their own from ICC fangs, something that is likely to have no relevance in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

I think 5-5-5-5 although more assured would be akward(sp).As for ICC, nobody gives a damn if you consider the tribal clashes that have happened since then. This year we have had tribal clashes btw kipsigis & Maasai, Maasai & Kikuyu, Dorobo/Okiek & tugen and several in northern kenya. These are localized tribal clashes that can quickly denegerate. Let not talk about 2015. These tribal/land clashes are just waiting for the opportune time to erupt. The politicians are to blame to some extent..but large extend it the average kenyan who is so tribal..he'll resort to tribal clashes sooner or later.

The context is this: GEMA might support a Ruto post-22 presidency, but one can be sure that they will either cripple it or somehow maintain control.   The key to either path is what happens in the next 5 years.

Oh, here's a thought on "violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame": The ICC cases failed, but all now know what it would take to make such cases stick (or fail), and I have no doubt that all Kenyan politicians will henceforth keep all that in mind.    (We can argue it later, but I believe the ICC prosecutions are ultimately good for Kenya, even if nobody got locked up.)   So, if I were one of the lads who control GEMA, one of the things I would be doing, in the face of such an obvious (even if implicit) threat of violence would be keeping a sharp eye on people and maintaining meticulous records.   2017-2022 Neutralization: "This time you don't burn our women and children in a church and away with it; we've been keeping tabs."

[MOON Ki]

And he is corrupt as hell yet he is not even at the top.  GEMA will see that as a problem, not because corruption is a problem per se, but because he is not their man.  He is not one of them.  They only needed him to save one of their own from ICC fangs, something that is likely to have no relevance in 2022.

For GEMA, as I imagine they see it, it's a choice between very bad (Ruto) and probably really, really bad (some character from Nyanza/Ukambani/Western).   I think they'll make the "logical" choice.

You say he will have no relevance in 2022.     So what does GEMA do then?    2 (big ones) vs. 40 or 1 (big one) vs. 41 (including one new big recruit)?   

The ICC ... it might be the case that "there is no honour among thieves", but thieves, if they do any thinking, will be mindful of their interests.  The Central-RV marriage is like most marriages: He/she did this to my relatives, was mean to them in this and that way ....  I'm not getting any of the in+out. ... What a piece of work the dog/bitch is.   But I'll stick with it for now ... the alimony, the kids, the threats of violence ...

And here's another thing: Going just by "anecdotal" evidence, I don't think much of the country is amused that GEMA is back, in full force to (re)-loot the country.    I can't give any objective information on that, but I sense a lot of anger.    That means they have to keep control.   So while Ruto might not be their "our man", he is certainly their "our brother"---a bond lately cemented in travails in "neo-colonial" regions.  A much-needed man.

The Opposition could capitalize on the above, but they are too clueless and disorganized:   rigged internal elections, apathy in getting prospective voters to register, apathy in getting the vote out, a reputation for "hooliganism", etc.       

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

And he is corrupt as hell yet he is not even at the top.  GEMA will see that as a problem, not because corruption is a problem per se, but because he is not their man.  He is not one of them.  They only needed him to save one of their own from ICC fangs, something that is likely to have no relevance in 2022.

For GEMA, as I imagine they see it, it's a choice between very bad (Ruto) and probably really, really bad (some character from Nyanza/Ukambani/Western).   I think they'll make the "logical" choice.

You say he will have no relevance in 2022.     So what does GEMA do then?    2 (big ones) vs. 40 or 1 (big one) vs. 41 (including one new big recruit)?   

The ICC ... it might be the case that "there is no honour among thieves", but thieves if they do any thinking) will be mindful of their interests.  The Central-RV marriage is like most marriages: He/she did this to my relatives, was mean to them in this and that way ....   What a piece of work the dog/bitch is.   But I'll stick with it for now ... the alimony, the kids, the threats of violence ...

And here's another thing: Going just by "anecdotal" evidence, I don't think much of the country is amused that GEMA is back, in full force to (re)-loot the country.    I can't give any objective information on that, but I sense a lot of anger.   

They'll just vote for one of theirs.  History says they don't do number 2 on a ticket.  They voted Kibaki, Matiba in the 90s even though they had no chance.  In 02, they would have voted Kamwana, regardless of chances, if Kibaki had not been toshad on the other ticket.

That aside, I also the hustler could also be undone in his own backyard by mashinani agents like Isaac, and Johnny come lately Gideon.