Can A Free Ruto Shit on GEMAS cake?

[Globalcitizen12]

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Can ruto dare to take on Uhuru by asking for his chance now? is too late for ruto to ask GEMA to change either support him or he goes for it alone? I think Ruto would emerge 2 in an general election that has Raila, Kalonzo, Uhuru running. The only scenario where ruto should not run is if CORD is intact because it means he can be third but even at that time he can still make  a post election deal with either group.

So should Rift Valley stay in 50/50 or go for 100%?

[RV Pundit]

50-50 is the new reality after constitution put 50% pass mark. There is no one who can go in without some form of coalition. If I were Ruto I'd want to enjoy 50-50 as long as it last. So 10yrs ad DPORK with 50% power and then maybe 10yrs as PORK with 50%. That is good deal.

[Georgesoros]

Kenya has not benefited from the current breed of politicians. Yes there are millionaires but there are more "0"nailers. They have nothing. Children go to bed hungry and wake up hungry. Schools are a luxury ....

[Nefertiti]

Ruto's challenge will appear in 2022 when Kindiki insist on DPORK. A Peter Kenneth can split Gema. His lucky bet would be Opposition disarray. He is best advised to complete his SGR and other 50-50 schemes under Jubilee.

[Pajero]

Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).

[RV Pundit]

Really, you said kikuyu and kalenjin were oil and water, would never mixed. Now I hear you say Ruto will never become pork. While we know Ruto has already become PORK for 3 days. All Ruto need to do to become PORK is to make a deal with Uhuru..for Uhuru to hand power to him....and go on extended holiday...just before the 2017 elections. Ruto get to ran 2017 as an incumbent. DPORK is not VP.

Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).

[MOON Ki]

Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).

Ruto has a very strong chance of becoming PORK in 2022---in fact, the strongest among the current field of lacklustre candidates.    All he has to do is stick with his GEMA friends, who will have no alternative but to back him in 2022.    For its part, the Opposition can only help him: it continues to be  mess, and, as things stand, 2017-2022 will be an even bigger mess, with a fight over Raila's replacement.   

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).

Ruto has a very strong chance of becoming PORK in 2022---in fact, the strongest among the current field of lacklustre candidates.    All he has to do is stick with his GEMA friends, who will have no alternative but to back him in 2022.    For its part, the Opposition can only help him: it continues to be  mess, and, as things stand, 2017-2022 will be an even bigger mess, with a fight over Raila's replacement.   

While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true. 

[MOON Ki]

While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true. 

Reasons?   

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true. 

Reasons?   

It's really just a hunch.  GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe.  Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture.  The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.

I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.

[Georgesoros]

They have no policy, or if they did they are not telling voters.
Defeating Uhuru is no policy.

Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).

Ruto has a very strong chance of becoming PORK in 2022---in fact, the strongest among the current field of lacklustre candidates.    All he has to do is stick with his GEMA friends, who will have no alternative but to back him in 2022.    For its part, the Opposition can only help him: it continues to be  mess, and, as things stand, 2017-2022 will be an even bigger mess, with a fight over Raila's replacement.   

While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true. 

[RV Pundit]

GEMA for now is Uhuru and Uhuru is gema. There were times when you had powerful gema elite...during weak kibaki regime maybe..but know what Uhuru says..GEMA does. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed and I don't see any reason why he doesn't; then Ruto is shoe-in.Most folks are yet to understand Kenya tribal politics and the game the tribal kings can play. Right now Raila, Uhuru and Ruto -and kalonzo--can basically tell their community to hate this guy today and to love him tomorrow.Madvd/Wetangula and other small players are playing in the second league.

Come 2022 I just don't see how GEMA will start a war with RV folks. They'll have to swallow it hard like Kalenjin swallowed by allowing another Gikuyu to rule them. Actually there is no swallowing; it will be 50-50 arrangement with Uhuru calling the shots post-retirement with proxy DP.

It's really just a hunch.  GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe.  Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture.  The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.

I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

GEMA for now is Uhuru and Uhuru is gema. There were times when you had powerful gema elite...during weak kibaki regime maybe..but know what Uhuru says..GEMA does. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed and I don't see any reason why he doesn't; then Ruto is shoe-in.Most folks are yet to understand Kenya tribal politics and the game the tribal kings can play. Right now Raila, Uhuru and Ruto -and kalonzo--can basically tell their community to hate this guy today and to love him tomorrow.Madvd/Wetangula and other small players are playing in the second league.

Come 2022 I just don't see how GEMA will start a war with RV folks. They'll have to swallow it hard like Kalenjin swallowed by allowing another Gikuyu to rule them. Actually there is no swallowing; it will be 50-50 arrangement with Uhuru calling the shots.

It's really just a hunch.  GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe.  Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture.  The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.

I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.

To be fair, 2022 is too far away.  Still, GEMA have an unbroken history.  When kamwana is a lame duck President, they wont listen to him.

[MOON Ki]

It's really just a hunch.  GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe.  Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture.  The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.

I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.

Will not vote for Ruto?   They know they can't go it alone.  What are their other options?  They either go with Ruto or accept someone they detest even more.   At least Ruto they can control, if they compromise him enough and also throw enough goodies into the RV to ensure that he won't pull a "Moi".    The other thing they will probably aim to do in 2017-2022 will be to entrench "our people" in important positions with security of tenure.   

Issues like corruption and ethnic cleansing don't matter in Kenya.   The elections are never on an objective basis.   No doubt many are still aggrieved over things like Kiambaa, but there's money and power at stake!

[RV Pundit]

If Uhuru really want Ruto to become PORK that will be easy breezy. Constitution allows him to resign anytime and let DPORK become PORK. So even today If Uhuru want Ruto to become PORK; he can just resign or go on holiday. Ruto is very very close to becoming PORK. Oops he was PORK for 3 days.

Making Uhuru happy should be Ruto's plan A. Plan B of course is to consolidate his RV bases and expand into other areas.

To be fair, 2022 is too far away.  Still, GEMA have an unbroken history.  When kamwana is a lame duck President, they wont listen to him.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If Uhuru really want Ruto to become PORK that will be easy breezy. Constitution allows him to resign anytime and let DPORK become PORK. So even today If Uhuru want Ruto to become PORK; he can just resign or go on holiday. Ruto is very very close to becoming PORK. Oops he was PORK for 3 days.

Making Uhuru happy should be Ruto's plan A. Plan B of course is to consolidate his RV bases and expand into other areas.

To be fair, 2022 is too far away.  Still, GEMA have an unbroken history.  When kamwana is a lame duck President, they wont listen to him.

I get what you are saying.  But you have to rely on uncharacteristic behavior on the part of GEMA.  Kamwana himself is on record as telling Ruto that he can only guarantee him his family support.

2017 is more predictable.  In 5 years, anything would have happened triggering unpredictable alliances.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It's really just a hunch.  GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe.  Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture.  The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.

I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.

Will not vote for Ruto?   They know they can't go it alone.  What are their other options?  They either go with Ruto or accept someone they detest even more.   At least Ruto they can control, if they compromise him enough and also throw enough goodies into the RV to ensure that he won't pull a "Moi".    The other thing they will probably aim to do in 2017-2022 will be to entrench "our people" in important positions with security of tenure.   

Issues like corruption and ethnic cleansing don't matter in Kenya.   The elections are never on an objective basis.   No doubt many are still aggrieved over things like Kiambaa, but there's money and power at stake!

I suspect the current setup will unravel in 2022 leaving options wide open for new alliances. 

I mention corruption and ethnic cleansing just to show that GEMA does not even have to rely solely on tribe to reject him, even if that is a primary reason.  In other words, they can even reject him with respectable reasons.

[Nefertiti]

The issue is GEMA succession. Meru claim its their chance after propping Kibaki and Uhuru. Ruto priority is to ensure Uhuru props up Kindiki or whoever to consolidate GEMA as DPORK.

2002 Moi managed to get RV under Uhuru. Ruto needed ICC and Kibaki patronage to pull RV in 2013. The biggest risk is GEMA split. GNU, APK and Kenneth-like parties can cause trouble. Don't be surprised to find Kiunjuri appointment is Ruto idea.

Issue is not Uhuru willingness but his ability to annoint a strong enough successor to back Ruto.

How sustainable is a two-region alliance?

[MOON Ki]

I suspect the current setup will unravel in 2022 leaving options wide open for new alliances.

With one exception---Kibaki's first victory, which was after a very length beating from Moi----"tribe" is what matters to Kenya when it comes to voting, and one thing tha won't unravel in 2022 is the "our man" mentality.

I mention corruption and ethnic cleansing just to show that GEMA does not even have to rely solely on tribe to reject him, even if that is a primary reason.  In other words, they can even reject him with respectable reasons.

Would corruption really be an issue for GEMA?   There is definitely residual bitterness in relation to the ethnic cleansing, but it seems to have been decided that money and power are more important and that certain things will have to be swallowed. 

The real question is this: If they reject Ruto, to whom will they turn?   I see no reason to believe that they will be welcomed elsewhere with open arms.

[Real P]

Will not vote for Ruto?   They know they can't go it alone.  What are their other options? 

It is too soon to know what the GEMA nation is planning, but my intuition is that Peter Kenneth will be their next choice.  I have a gut feeling they are secretly grooming PK behind the scenes to take over the helm in 2022. Ruto has a daunting task ahead of him. GEMA will never allow him to get anywhere near the State House. Most Kikuyus can't bring themselves to admit although they believe deep down their hearts that Ruto was one of the masterminds of 2007 post election violence. Not only I am 100 percent certain that they won't vote for him in 2022, but they'll rather vote for another Njoroge or Kamau and will do so without a tad of guilt of voting for their own. Fourteen years in, Kikuyus are still battling a Moi hangover and it will probably take them another 30 years to recover. They have this notion that they are still cleaning up the aftermath of the previous 24 years of Moi era. It will probably take them eons to get over that reasoning.  What is frightening to Kikuyus is another Moi or another tribe curtailing their rights, blocking their advancement and failing to protect them.