The valley votes

[Pajero]

Raila 54%
Ruto 46%

Take this to the nearest bank.

[RV Pundit]

1) Central -  possible  - total votes 3M - 2.2m at low turnout of 70 perccent from 85 last two election - raila gets 0.8 - he would have to do 36-38 percent of Central - that is almost 40 percent of kikuyus - very very unlikely

2) Eastern - possible - if he carries Akambas - and get 40 percent of Meru-Embu - again unlikely - otherwise inflated by 0.5M

3) Coast - Laughable - 1.8m total votes - the turn out in Coast is always low - total expected cast votes is 1.1m at low of 60s turnout - and you think Raila will get all of it.

County
Turnout, 2013 (%)   Turnout, 2017 (%)
Kwale   73.59   67.08
Mombasa   66.62   60.49
Kilifi   64.91   66.23

3) NEP - another laughable proposition - total votes in NEP is 0.57 - expected total votes to be cast will be around 0.4M - and you expect Raila to get 100% of them

4) Nyanza - perfect.

5) Rift valley - 1.2m is impossible - best Raila get 0.8M.

6) Western - total expected cast votes will be 1.5m - and you're suggesting Raila will 65 while Ruto gets 35 percent - bhangi mbichi

FINAL VOTE FOR RAILA

CENTRAL 0.8
EASTERN 1.5
NAIROBI 1.1
NE 0.4
COAST 1.0
NYANZA 2.1
RV 1.2
WESTERN 0.9

TOTAL 9M

[RV Pundit]

In short you're saying -
Raila will get 40% of GEMA
Raila will get 65% of Luhyas
Raila will get 100% of Somalis
Raila will get  90% of Coast
Raila will get  95% of Luos
Raila will get 70 percent of Gusii
Raila will get 100% of Maasai/Turkana/Luhyas

[Pajero]

In RV ,am building in his 2017 numbers,he got 0.9 M votes,they can only go higher factoring the 30% gema votes in Nakuru,Laikipia,kajiado as well as the additional new voters.

Western,I start with busia where 80% is Baba,if the 460,000 voters,Baba starts with  a cool 350K votes,Vihiga he gets 70K(Luos around Nyangori and Luanda).Kakamega is 60% Baba ,that's about 300K for Baba.Bungoma Baba will make 40%,giving him about 200K votes,if you total that overall comes to about 0.9M votes.

Coast is dominantly ODM,Baba will do well in Mombaa and kilifi counties scoring over 65%.Both counties have over 1.2 registered voters and the two will give Baba close to 0.7M votes.Taveta,Kwake,Lamu & Tana river will give Baba additional 300 K votes to make it 1M for Baba in coast.

Eastern,with Kambas 1.6 registered voters,1.1 will come out to vote Baba,add 35% of merus,embus,Tharakas which is about 400K.overall Baba gets 1.5 M of eastern votes.

NE,Baba will manage over 65% of the 0.7 registered voters whisc is about 0.4M voters,all leading aspirants are in Azimio.Tgey tend to go with the winning team.

I say the magic number is 30% for Baba in gema nation,this is about 1.5M votes(central, Meru,Tharaka,Embu,Nairobi and gema in RV).,and it's the game changer.

Game over.The gains Ruto has made in coast and western are insignificant to the overall vite basket,1% gain in western or coast is not equal to 1% gain in central gema.

[RV Pundit]

Go through your numbers - factor reasonable turnout - to play safe - you can average the turnout of 2013 and 2017 - that is your 1st problem.

I have attached 2017 results to assist you.

In RV ,am building in his 2017 numbers,he got 0.9 M votes,they can only go higher factoring the 30% gema votes in Nakuru,Laikipia,kajiado as well as the additional new voters.

Western,I start with busia where 80% is Baba,if the 460,000 voters,Baba starts with  a cool 350K votes,Vihiga he gets 70K(Luos around Nyangori and Luanda).Kakamega is 60% Baba ,that's about 300K for Baba.Bungoma Baba will make 40%,giving him about 200K votes,if you total that overall comes to about 0.9M votes.

Coast is dominantly ODM,Baba will do well in Mombaa and kilifi counties scoring over 65%.Both counties have over 1.2 registered voters and the two will give Baba close to 0.7M votes.Taveta,Kwake,Lamu & Tana river will give Baba additional 300 K votes to make it 1M for Baba in coast.

Eastern,with Kambas 1.6 registered voters,1.1 will come out to vote Baba,add 35% of merus,embus,Tharakas which is about 400K.overall Baba gets 1.5 M of eastern votes.

NE,Baba will manage over 65% of the 0.7 registered voters whisc is about 0.4M voters,all leading aspirants are in Azimio.Tgey tend to go with the winning team.

I say the magic number is 30% for Baba in gema nation,this is about 1.5M votes(central, Meru,Tharaka,Embu,Nairobi and gema in RV).,and it's the game changer.

Game over.The gains Ruto has made in coast and western are insignificant to the overall vite basket,1% gain in western or coast is not equal to 1% gain in central gema.

[Pajero]

Turn out averages between 73% to 75% of all areas apart from Luo Nyanza,Kalenjin Rift,Gema nation which have high level turn out of over 80%.Whichever way,those are the most realistic projections,In western,Busia will be the tier breaker for Baba,In coast it will be Mombasa and Kilifi,in central,it will be Kiambu and in Eastern ,it will be Meru.
It's a fact Ruto has made gains in western especially Bungoma but the gains are marginally low,they can't tilt the scale,same applies to coast.Battle ground is the gema nation,that's where this thing is won or lost.If Ruto pulls over 90%,he is in,If Raila pulls above 30%,he is equally in.

[RV Pundit]

Coast turn out at best will be 60-65.
Luo Nyanza and Kalenjin RV will have more than 85 percent.
GEMA will not see why they must vote in such number - I see even 10-15 percent drop of turnout.
Turnout in Western, Luhyas and Ukambani is normally low.
So is turnout in part of RV and northern Kenya.

Ruto has made gains in Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma, Tranzoia, many luhyas in RV (nandi, uasin gishu, nakuru), Turkana, parts of Ukambani (Machakos with Muthama), Kwale and will generally perform better than Uhuru did in many areas including Kalenjin counties with tighter Ruto numbers & higher turnout - except Gusii & parts of Northern Kenya.

All those gains will cancel Raila 30% gain in GEMA.

It would have been rosy if Raila had retained his 2013/2017 figures - then added 30% of GEMA (which is about 8-9 percent).

Turn out averages between 73% to 75% of all areas apart from Luo Nyanza,Kalenjin Rift,Gema nation which have high level turn out of over 80%.Whichever way,those are the most realistic projections,In western,Busia will be the tier breaker for Baba,In coast it will be Mombasa and Kilifi,in central,it will be Kiambu and in Eastern ,it will be Meru.
It's a fact Ruto has made gains in western especially Bungoma but the gains are marginally low,they can't tilt the scale,same applies to coast.Battle ground is the gema nation,that's where this thing is won or lost.If Ruto pulls over 90%,he is in,If Raila pulls above 30%,he is equally in.

[Pajero]

Let's close it,I stand with 54% Raila,46% Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Okay. We shall meet on 10th August. Moas as of now is 52-53 percent for Ruto - and 46-47 for Raila.We are almost agreed on GEMA (30%), we major disagree on Luhya and Kambas where you suppress Ruto numbers, and we disagree on turnout.

Let's close it,I stand with 54% Raila,46% Ruto.

[Pajero]

On luhya,am pretty much being objective,I opine that Raila is loosing votes,in 2017 Raila got 1.3M votes in western,am giving him 0.9M votes now,he is loosing 400K votes to Ruto.
In ukambani,let's see if Muthama beats wavinya for machakos seat before we even start discussing who gets what.But Kalonzo is to kambas what Raila is to Luos and Ruto to Kalenjins.

[RV Pundit]

MaDVD alone scored 0.5m in 2013 - you have NOT factored a Bukusu flip in Bungoma&Tranzoia - and elsewhere - Busia is not Kakamega or Bungoma so Raila winning there doesnt flip Luhyas. As for Ukambani - without Kalonzo as DPORK - he is nothing that serious - he now a butt of jokes.
As for RV - you need know Luhya&kalenjin turnout & turkana - will cancel out few Kikuyus who will vote Azimio - most kikuyus in RV - are voting for peace (under duress). Apart from Lee of Moi & Kibaki nephew - who feel their dynasties root - are more important - everyone else in UDA directly - so expecting Raila to increase voters in RV is crazy - he will actually reduce his voters. That 0.9M he got will probably reduces - not increase.

On luhya,am pretty much being objective,I opine that Raila is loosing votes,in 2017 Raila got 1.3M votes in western,am giving him 0.9M votes now,he is loosing 400K votes to Ruto.
In ukambani,let's see if Muthama beats wavinya for machakos seat before we even start discussing who gets what.But Kalonzo is to kambas what Raila is to Luos and Ruto to Kalenjins.

[Pajero]

So if Kalonzo is not made DP kambas revolt,what if Mudavd is also not made DP,will luhyas too revolt???

[RV Pundit]

We already factored luhyas revolt but for you even with opinion polls showing Ruto doing great in ukambani you still insist Azimios will score 90 percent...and yet kalonzo may not be dpork.. reality is that Ruto will do extremely well in ukambani if Dpork is not given to kalonzo..same way Raila score nearly half of luhya if madvd is not dpork.There is a science to this guesswork...not wishful thinking