The valley votes

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

It's actually 530,000 not 586,000

Even if they are 300K majority are kales, Kikuyus and Luhyas;  the DP voters. Same will be replicated in El Keiyo, Nandi, Bomet, Kericho, Tranzoia, Nakuru, Baringo, Narok, and Beyond. DP is the darling of vote-rich Rift Valley. The votes that will churn out will shock they system!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

uasingishu 530,000
 Nandi 402,000
Elgeyo 211,000
Baringo 271,000

Kericho 429,000
Bomet 300,000

TOTAL 2.1M

HOW WILL YOU MANAGE 4 M IN RV.

Where is Turkana, Samburu, Trans nzoia, Laikipia, Kajiado, Nakuru, West Pokot? Put the numbers of all RV and will tell you?

[GeeMail]

Good question on RV vote. Pundit posted on stronghold rigging. Only that give RV 4m votes.

[RV Pundit]

https://mobile.twitter.com/rvpundit/status/1502621587039789057/photo/1

[RV Pundit]

It's been sometimes but if I recall kalenjin makes 55 percent of rift valley, Kikuyus 20 percent, the rest share 25 percent..total votes and population roughly 24-25 percent of kenya.Raila is getting little in RV this time round.. outside narok maasai I don't see anywhere else where he has more support than Ruto.. Tranzoia and turkana have flipped.. kajiado maybe 50 50...

[Pajero]

Which 55%,The six counties of Kalenjin have 2.1 M votes,add Kalenjins in Narok,Transzoia and Nakuru about 0.3M totalling to about 2.5M.That makes you about 45% of RV.

[RV Pundit]

I have done these things since 2005. Just give up.

Which 55%,The six counties of Kalenjin have 2.1 M votes,add Kalenjins in Narok,Transzoia and Nakuru about 0.3M totalling to about 2.5M.That makes you about 45% of RV.

[RV Pundit]

Now that I am in front of a computer - here are the stats with tribal breakdown

Total RV votes is about 5.1M

Tribal breakdown - Census 2009

[Pajero]

How many voters do we have in the 6 Kalenjin counties combined,list them down plz.

[RV Pundit]

I have done everything FOR YOU in MOASS. You're stressing yourself bure. Of 5.1m votes...Ruto will score upto 3.2m from rift valley - Raila will score 0.8m  (generously gave him 20 percent of Nakuru). I expect about a million voters not to show up - mostly maasai, turkanas, samburus and Luhyas - and even many kikuyus.

How many voters do we have in the 6 Kalenjin counties combined,list them down plz.

[Pajero]

Let's go central,out of the 3M registered,voter turn out expected to be 75%.That makes it 2.2M voters.Hiw much are you giving Ruto here.

[RV Pundit]

Kiambu Ruto scores 65 percent - elsewhere he scores 75 percent.
That was on account of Uhuru really working his arse off.
Evidence now suggests - this may not be the case.
I think as of today - Ruto support has gone up to 85 percent.
Ruto has the momentum now in Mt kenya.
Sagana III simply failed.

Agreed on turnout - I expect even worse - maybe 70 percent.

If Uhuru really really tries

NYANDARUA   263075   197306   63138
NYERI   356355   267266   85525
KIRINYAGA   274179   205634   65803
MURANGA   456906   342680   109657
KIAMBU   864912   648684   207579
   2215427   1661570   531702

Total votes will be 2.2M - with Ruto scoring 1.7M - and Raila scoring 0.5M votes.

Let's go central,out of the 3M registered,voter turn out expected to be 75%.That makes it 2.2M voters.Hiw much are you giving Ruto here.

[Pajero]

I put it at 1.5 for Ruto and 0.7 for Raila.

[RV Pundit]

Hakuna shida - I have run all those scenarios - Ruto plays 52-53 percent - Raila 45-46 percent - gap from 1-1.5m. I will keep watching - so far I see Ruto doing strongly in Mt Kenya and swinging some suprise in Ukambani - so it's likely he will be adding 2-3 percent nationally - and Raila will be at 43-44 versus Ruto 55-56 - with 1 percent for all the jokers who will run.

I did this couple months ago. Ruto 8.5M - Raila 7M -

I put it at 1.5 for Ruto and 0.7 for Raila.

[Pajero]

Hebu tuende Eastern kwa wameru,1.4 registered,with 75% turn out,about 900K will be voting.Hapa unapea Ruto ngapi.

[RV Pundit]

Wameru are about 0.9M - 0.8M in Meru and half in Tharaka (0.1m). I think Raila as of now will do well in Meru - gave Ruto 55 & Ruto 45 - obviously this assume Munya get DPORK - if not - it will have same margins with rest of GEMA - Ruto will do more than 75 percent - if Uhuru continues with his lipservice - Ruto goes to 85 percent.

Tharaka,Embu and Mbeeres -0.4m - I see Ruto doing very well here - almost 80 percent.

Eastern tribal composition

County Name   Ethnic Composition
MARSABIT   Gabra 28%,Borana,Rendile,Burji &others 5%
ISIOLO   Borana 37%,Somali,Samburu, Turkana ,Meruu & Gikuyu10%
MERU   Meru 94%,Gikuyu,Akamba 2%
THARAKA NITHI   Meru 55%,Tharaka 40%,Mbeere & others 5%
EMBU   Embu 50%,Mbeere 35%,Gikuyu 7%,Akamba 5%,others 3% ?
KITUI   Akamba 97%,Tharaka & others 3%
MACHAKOS   Akamba 91%,Gikuyu 5% & others 4%
MAKUENI   Akamba 95%,others 5%

Hebu tuende Eastern kwa wameru,1.4 registered,with 75% turn out,about 900K will be voting.Hapa unapea Ruto ngapi.

[Pajero]

You are getting it wrong in western,coast,eastern,Rift valley and central

[RV Pundit]

Okay put you figures and share - and then we meet on the 10th August - we compare notes. I'd like to see Raila path to victory.

You are getting it wrong in western,coast,eastern,Rift valley and central

[Pajero]

FINAL VOTE FOR RAILA

CENTRAL 0.8
EASTERN 1.5
NAIROBI 1.1
NE 0.4
COAST 1.0
NYANZA 2.1
RV 1.2
WESTERN 0.9

TOTAL 9M

[Pajero]

FINAL VOTES FOR RUTO

CENTRAL 1.5
EASTEEN 0.8
NRB.         0.8
NE.            0.2
COAST.     0.4
NYANZA.  0.3
RV.             3.0
WESTERN 0.7

TOTAL.  7.7M
46%