Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on April 05, 2021, 03:16:20 PM
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Uhuru is trying to unite the Cerelac coalition; if they unite; and get good GEMA candidate to join them; they could get some traction.
Kalonzo can bring his 8% Kamba. MaDVD can bring 4% (if he is candidate more than 10%); and GEMA candidate can theoretically if Uhuru uses all his magic and power; bring maybe 20%. I think few small tribes including Gusii can be rail roadbed to bring in another 5-10%
That will see Cerelac coalition at 40%! and sure bet for 2nd round.
Raila is looking increasingly a Luo Nyanza candidate - at 15%. The man is being made to accept to be a King Maker. I think soon it will dawn on him that his candidature is no longer viable. But Raila being Raila will try to cobble coalition of wannabes!
And Ruto will obviously be the man to beat - with 45-50% - starting strong with 25% of RV.
The problem with Cerelac coalition is who be the candidate - If it's GEMA candidate - the Kalonzo/MaDVD will bail out - if it's MaDVD - or Kalonzo - GEMA may not play ball.
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Uhuru is doing very well given he should long be lameduck by now - going by your fake punditry :) - instead he is the center of gravity. Uhuru gameplan seem obvious: key agenda is to block Ruto who is now radioactive skunk even small fish like Mukhisa or Kibwana won't touch with 10ft pole.
The One Kenya Alliance of tribal chiefs is strategy to scuttle Ruto UDA momentum. Cobbled after Diani, first strike has gone excellent in Luhya, Gusii, Kamba and now Juja. UDA is dead before the whistle. Noone remembers hustler nation since the last by-elections because the popular mass movement facade was shattered.
Raila is still the first among equals. Being cut to size was necessary: one, Ruto was chewing into his non-Luo bases while kingpins have been able to fend him off. Without Mvurya I doubt Ruto would have managed anything in Kwale. Two, Raila with NASA was impossible to negotiate with as he was holding too many aces. But now mere first among equals it easier to craft a BBI lineup and sell him as team player not imperial PORK.
BBI lineup remains intact, I see no signs of serious strife or disagreement. Ruto if he was serious should be the one lining up Mvurya-Kingi but instead they are talking to Uhuru. Tangatanga only hope is that Uhuru is playing Raila which remains improbable by many indicators. Gema of course will simply vote their own man not Raila or Mdvd or whoever. BBI is now very popular in Mt Kenya as all MPs draw red-line at unbeateable 1M1V1S. Gema have no choice but to back PK and guarantee him majority MPs for PM post.
Ruto as he lose Mt Kenya and his hustler nonsense wither will be lucky to be 3rd runner-up. RV 25% gani hio sasa - are Maa even with him? UDA is a URP knock-off.
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Juja and the BBI realignment basically tell us Ruto has lost Gema fight to Uhuru.
Pass the BBI as it is, Mt Kenya leaders tell House
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001407711/why-bbi-faces-fresh-assault-in-mt-kenya
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Laughable. If Ruto is done - kaput - why are the helter skelter. Raila is not acceptable to Mt kenya - both elite and laity - and that you cannot see is of course laughable. If Ruto is toxic - trust me - Raila is nuclear toxic to Uhuru and the mt Kenya folks. These are called tautologies. Known knowns.
At end of day - Ruto is sitting pretty - waiting for the gang to implode - and for him to take him one by one.
Ruto has solid gameplan - he will run with Kikuyu candidate - Most likely Mwangi Kiunjuri - and that is that. Ruto has made that very clear to anyone else trying to join him - that they are joining - for the crumbs. The cream is already taken. It therefore very understandable why those outside GEMA nation are not keen to talk to RUTO.
The rest of the field are trying to square circles and all kind of gymanstics - and find someone who can fit the bill - and of course agree to it :)
In my view Ruto just has to buy time - and wait it out - for the 10 or 20 candidates to try all sort of configurations - including in make-belief BBI - and then eventually they will split - and Ruto will take them out.
Bottomline: Ruto is at stage where he has to do DO NOTHING except wait. What is he waiting for - for Uhuru to finally realize he has been rejected long time ago by GEMA people.
Can Uhuru find someone in GEMA who can win community trust while opposing Ruto? Very unlikely. PK is dead as dodo. Munya and Muturi are just laughable. Kabago - mmh - the man lost Kiambu governorship. Outside say convincing say Mwangi of Equity to join politics - I just don't see a GEMA hero that would unite the 6 arms of kikuyus (kiambu,muranga, nyeri, diaspora, merus and embus) to take on Ruto.
So at this point Ruto really has to decide btw Kiunjuri and say another GEMA leader....and then take the war to poor unpopular Uhuru.
Uhuru is doing very well given he should long be lameduck by now - going by your fake punditry :) - instead he is the center of gravity. Uhuru gameplan seem obvious: key agenda is to block Ruto who is now radioactive skunk even small fish like Mukhisa or Kibwana won't touch with 10ft pole.
The One Kenya Alliance of tribal chiefs is strategy to scuttle Ruto UDA momentum. Cobbled after Diani, first strike has gone excellent in Luhya, Gusii, Kamba and now Juja. UDA is dead before the whistle. Noone remembers hustler nation since the last by-elections because the popular mass movement facade was shattered.
Raila is still the first among equals. Being cut to size was necessary: one, Ruto was chewing into his non-Luo bases while kingpins have been able to fend him off. Without Mvurya I doubt Ruto would have managed anything in Kwale. Two, Raila with NASA was impossible to negotiate with as he was holding too many aces. But now mere first among equals it easier to craft a BBI lineup and sell him as team player not imperial PORK.
BBI lineup remains intact, I see no signs of serious strife or disagreement. Ruto if he was serious should be the one lining up Mvurya-Kingi but instead they are talking to Uhuru. Tangatanga only hope is that Uhuru is playing Raila which remains improbable by many indicators. Gema of course will simply vote their own man not Raila or Mdvd or whoever. BBI is now very popular in Mt Kenya as all MPs draw red-line at unbeateable 1M1V1S. Gema have no choice but to back PK and guarantee him majority MPs for PM post.
Ruto as he lose Mt Kenya and his hustler nonsense wither will be lucky to be 3rd runner-up. RV 25% gani hio sasa - are Maa even with him? UDA is a URP knock-off.
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Juja is the kitendawili you must explain to us since Ruto is so popular and acceptable. You said something about respecting or not taking on Uhuru which is laughable. Juja should be good experiment on how he will face Uhuru in 2022 in larger Mt Kenya. Why will next year be easier than now? The beauty of by-elections is they are much better than polls or spin in laying bare the ground reality. Ruto cannot dare field UDA in Juja for simple reason: after the rout in non-Gema by featherweights like Weta 8) - and underwhelming performance in London and Hell's Gate - Mt Kenya is the remaining region he can hide his imaginary presidential lead.
Ruto stands no chance against BBI lineup. Your only hope is BBI collapse - for now pro-BBI camps: - One Kenya, ODM, Pwani, and Gema are in Uhuru corner. Uhuru remain Ruto sworn enemy unless you know something we don't.
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Really? How? he just got a dog-beating in 3 key regions: Kamba, Luhya, Gusii - and performed poorly in majority-Kikuyu areas in diaspora. You been telling us Gema diasporites are more amenable to Ruto.
What you don't get about Gema - and 2022 generally - is that Ruto watermelon BBI stand will kill him. He will have nothing for noone. Like Jeremy Corbyn and Labor Party in the UK Brexit elections in 2019. Labor lost so bad because they had a vague stand on the most important item of the day. Worst performance since 1935. 2022-BBI combo is Kenya's 2019-Brexit moment.
Bottomline: Ruto is at stage where he has to do DO NOTHING except wait. What is he waiting for - for Uhuru to finally realize he has been rejected long time ago by GEMA people.
Can Uhuru find someone in GEMA who can win community trust while opposing Ruto? Very unlikely. PK is dead as dodo. Munya and Muturi are just laughable. Kabago - mmh - the man lost Kiambu governorship. Outside say convincing say Mwangi of Equity to join politics - I just don't see a GEMA hero that would unite the 6 arms of kikuyus (kiambu,muranga, nyeri, diaspora, merus and embus) to take on Ruto.
So at this point Ruto really has to decide btw Kiunjuri and say another GEMA leader....and then take the war to poor unpopular Uhuru.
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Pundit i expect by now you accept BBI is 2022 combo not June or August this year.
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Why must Ruto fight Jubilee and Uhuru - a dying party with retiring head? What is there to be gained? Already Jubilee has lost in Muranga, Nakuru, name it;
Ruto is choosing his battles wisely; and has left Uhuru and groupies; basically unhinged; coz where they expect Ruto to fight; Ruto doesn't. Right about now they are totally confused - even with BBI - Ruto has kept his cards very close to his chest - he might even support it.
As for BBI - how does that solve the problem - PORK remain PORK - and everything else is flower girls. How you imagine that Uhuru and GEMA will endorse Raila for imperial PORK is for me a sign of pure madness.
If BBI was serious - power sharing - we would have seen attempt to take power from PORK - and share it - so Raila can be given a ceremonial PORK - it didn't happen - therefore we can conclude Uhuru and company are not interested in Raila as PORK.
BBI therefore remain a joke - the real deal remain PORK.
Juja is the kitendawili you must explain to us since Ruto is so popular and acceptable. You said something about respecting or not taking on Uhuru which is laughable. Juja should be good experiment on how he will face Uhuru in 2022 in larger Mt Kenya. Why will next year be easier than now? The beauty of by-elections is they are much better than polls or spin in laying bare the ground reality. Ruto cannot dare field UDA in Juja for simple reason: after the rout in non-Gema by featherweights like Weta 8) - and underwhelming performance in London and Hell's Gate - Mt Kenya is the remaining region he can hide his imaginary presidential lead.
Ruto stands no chance against BBI lineup. Your only hope is BBI collapse - for now pro-BBI camps: - One Kenya, ODM, Pwani, and Gema are in Uhuru corner. Uhuru remain Ruto sworn enemy unless you know something we don't.
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BBI is DOA and remain DOA. PORK remain PORK; heck even more powerful. I am not sure who you expect to blanket with useless positions like PM and Deputy PMS :)
You seriously think that GEMA elites will give Raila Imperial PORK :)
Jesus go for mental checkup. BBI lineup that Uhuru and company are working on - WILL NOT and DO NOT anticipate Raila as PORK - of course he can take PM or Deputy PM.
That to me is big difference btw your hallucinations and the reality. So far it appears Uhuru might be trying to help Gideon Moi - who will have to face WIlliam Ruto. I think Baby Matiangi is dead - too green. If Gideon doesn't fly - I won't rule out MaDVD or Poor Kaloi.We can rule out completely Raila as PORK. That is just too obvious.
Pundit i expect by now you accept BBI is 2022 combo not June or August this year.
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I will save you all the punditry and analysis. These is how this is going down. It will be a three horse race between one Kenya, Raila and Ruto. One Kenya will feature the so called celerac coalition, if they agree on a good candidate, it’s up to them but not the Moi son. If this happens, in the first round, with a poor kikuyu turnout and Kale 1.5m votes, one Kenya wins easily followed by Ruto, Raila will be third but with respectable numbers that both sides try to court him as a kingmaker in the second round. The quagmire is, if Ruto is joined by Raila, he loses Gema and gains the Luo vote and some remnants of Nasa, this is a losing proposition.Raila will most likely join one Kenya but with major demands for his Luo base. One Kenya coalition with Raila in it will win second round by noon. The only route Raila has to presidency right now is if the one Kenya agrees on him as a candidate but he has burnt so many bridges that I do not see this happening. The reality is, Raila without the NASA coalition doesn’t have enough votes to win on his own. At best, it’s time for him to play kingmaker. As for now I think BBI which could have expanded the executive and accommodated everyone is DOA, It will either be time barred or defeated in a referendum.
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Tick-tock we'll see it mere months now to showtime. I guess you missed the latest bromance as they open matatu station and openly mock Ruto. We may not know Uhuru plan but we know he does not want Ruto: all actions undermine the latter especially One Kenya in March by-elections that killed UDA momentum. But I get your new theory is that Uhuru is prepping more Gema for PORK - except we don't see anything like it anywhere. By now PK or whoever would be well marketed but nope. Cause you prop a man too early and he run with it and become uncontainable.
For me it remain Raila. I really want to see how Bonchari goes - if Jubilee-ODM team up to finish off UDA. Such signal would be big. UDA ducking Juja is a very bad sign obviously and totally undermine your Ruto Gema supremacy narrative. No miracle will happen next year if Gema are not in UDA right now. Even Kang'ata is not UDA just lip service about BBI is unpopular which is manifest nonsense if you follow closely the bill's debate in parliament. Opposing BBI is no longer an option in Mt Kenya - so what is common thing with Ruto without UDA?
BBI is DOA and remain DOA. PORK remain PORK; heck even more powerful. I am not sure who you expect to blanket with useless positions like PM and Deputy PMS :)
You seriously think that GEMA elites will give Raila Imperial PORK :)
Jesus go for mental checkup. BBI lineup that Uhuru and company are working on - WILL NOT and DO NOT anticipate Raila as PORK - of course he can take PM or Deputy PM.
That to me is big difference btw your hallucinations and the reality. So far it appears Uhuru might be trying to help Gideon Moi - who will have to face WIlliam Ruto. I think Baby Matiangi is dead - too green. If Gideon doesn't fly - I won't rule out MaDVD or Poor Kaloi.We can rule out completely Raila as PORK. That is just too obvious.
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I will save you all the punditry and analysis. These is how this is going down. It will be a three horse race between one Kenya, Raila and Ruto. One Kenya will feature the so called celerac coalition, if they agree on a good candidate, it’s up to them but not the Moi son. If this happens, in the first round, with a poor kikuyu turnout and Kale 1.5m votes, one Kenya wins easily followed by Ruto, Raila will be third but with respectable numbers that both sides try to court him as a kingmaker in the second round. The quagmire is, if Ruto is joined by Raila, he loses Gema and gains the Luo vote and some remnants of Nasa, this is a losing proposition.Raila will most likely join one Kenya but with major demands for his Luo base. One Kenya coalition with Raila in it will win second round by noon. The only route Raila has to presidency right now is if the one Kenya agrees on him as a candidate but he has burnt so many bridges that I do not see this happening. The reality is, Raila without the NASA coalition doesn’t have enough votes to win on his own. At best, it’s time for him to play kingmaker. As for now I think BBI which could have expanded the executive and accommodated everyone is DOA, It will either be time barred or defeated in a referendum.
How will BBI be time-barred or defeated in referendum? It literally has no opposition except Karua and Ndii #Linda-Katiba. It will be the 7th ballot - yes or no - and this ensures One Kenya-ODM enough slots to stem a fallout. Unless Uhuru betrays Raila you have a credible line-up here that takes it NARC-style. Mdvds, Matiang'i and Kingis will run for MP and wait to be D/PM or CS. Except maybe delusional Gideon Cerelac are not gullible or vain enough to think they can be PORK without any of Uhuru-Raila-Ruto endorsement. They tested those waters and wind up with 4 or 8%. Only Ruto is running on hubris.
Ruto is watermelon due to BBI inevitability. His biggest headache is how to cross the bridge to yes - which Raila-Uhuru totally thwarted during BBI reviews and audits - and this denies him the credibility to cobble a credible BBI-like coalition with D/PM/CSs. Hustler nation UDA wave has died after the string of embarrassing by-election losses to Cerelac - and this makes Ruto need tribal kings whom he has nothing to offer.
Without openly endorsing BBI solid power-sharing Ruto has nothing for Cerelac and Kingis. Not a whiff of any Cerelac joining him. But endorsing BBI destroys the facade of radical pro-poor reforms he has been attempting to build under wheelbarrow.
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Pundit badala ya hadithi let watch 2 things;
Bonchari - ODM-Jubilee game will tell us something about Uhuru-Raila deal. Open hostility between them that risk throwing UDA new straw is bad sign.
Kiambaa - yet another opportunity for UDA to man up and be counted in Gema. If Ruto chickens again - pretend to "respect Uhuru" :) - this is another bad sign. If not how will UDA perform?
At this point BBI just wait for 2022-combo as was the plan all along... which persuades me Raila is not being played.
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Uhuru is trying to unite the Cerelac coalition; if they unite; and get good GEMA candidate to join them; they could get some traction.
Kalonzo can bring his 8% Kamba. MaDVD can bring 4% (if he is candidate more than 10%); and GEMA candidate can theoretically if Uhuru uses all his magic and power; bring maybe 20%. I think few small tribes including Gusii can be rail roadbed to bring in another 5-10%
That will see Cerelac coalition at 40%! and sure bet for 2nd round.
Raila is looking increasingly a Luo Nyanza candidate - at 15%. The man is being made to accept to be a King Maker. I think soon it will dawn on him that his candidature is no longer viable. But Raila being Raila will try to cobble coalition of wannabes!
And Ruto will obviously be the man to beat - with 45-50% - starting strong with 25% of RV.
The problem with Cerelac coalition is who be the candidate - If it's GEMA candidate - the Kalonzo/MaDVD will bail out - if it's MaDVD - or Kalonzo - GEMA may not play ball.
Pundit, I keep reminding you that the nos and percentages you post here are hocus pocus, karumanzira, kiini macho......
Where does Ruto get 25% in RV.
Going by 2017 nos. percentage of votes cast to total
North; Turkana, Samburu & West Pokot - 2.3%
Core Counties; Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu & Baringo - 10%
Madoadoa; Nakuru, Laikipia & Transzoia - 8%
Maasai; Narok & Kajiado - 4%
Give Ruto 100% of core counties and 60% of the other rift counties, Ruto tops up at 18.5%.
How you get 25% of the national vote while the entire Rift vote is 24% is what I call kalongo-longo math
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Uhuru is trying to unite the Cerelac coalition; if they unite; and get good GEMA candidate to join them; they could get some traction.
Kalonzo can bring his 8% Kamba. MaDVD can bring 4% (if he is candidate more than 10%); and GEMA candidate can theoretically if Uhuru uses all his magic and power; bring maybe 20%. I think few small tribes including Gusii can be rail roadbed to bring in another 5-10%
That will see Cerelac coalition at 40%! and sure bet for 2nd round.
Raila is looking increasingly a Luo Nyanza candidate - at 15%. The man is being made to accept to be a King Maker. I think soon it will dawn on him that his candidature is no longer viable. But Raila being Raila will try to cobble coalition of wannabes!
And Ruto will obviously be the man to beat - with 45-50% - starting strong with 25% of RV.
The problem with Cerelac coalition is who be the candidate - If it's GEMA candidate - the Kalonzo/MaDVD will bail out - if it's MaDVD - or Kalonzo - GEMA may not play ball.
Pundit, I keep reminding you that the nos and percentages you post here are hocus pocus, karumanzira, kiini macho......
Where does Ruto get 25% in RV.
Going by 2017 nos. percentage of votes cast to total
North; Turkana, Samburu & West Pokot - 2.3%
Core Counties; Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu & Baringo - 10%
Madoadoa; Nakuru, Laikipia & Transzoia - 8%
Maasai; Narok & Kajiado - 4%
Give Ruto 100% of core counties and 60% of the other rift counties, Ruto tops up at 18.5%.
How you get 25% of the national vote while the entire Rift vote is 24% is what I call kalongo-longo math
:D :D after the "RV 25%" - how does Ruto manage 45-50% nationally when he has been run out of town by Cerelac and is now ducking small contests in Juja and Garissa?
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Uhuru is trying to unite the Cerelac coalition; if they unite; and get good GEMA candidate to join them; they could get some traction.
Kalonzo can bring his 8% Kamba. MaDVD can bring 4% (if he is candidate more than 10%); and GEMA candidate can theoretically if Uhuru uses all his magic and power; bring maybe 20%. I think few small tribes including Gusii can be rail roadbed to bring in another 5-10%
That will see Cerelac coalition at 40%! and sure bet for 2nd round.
Raila is looking increasingly a Luo Nyanza candidate - at 15%. The man is being made to accept to be a King Maker. I think soon it will dawn on him that his candidature is no longer viable. But Raila being Raila will try to cobble coalition of wannabes!
And Ruto will obviously be the man to beat - with 45-50% - starting strong with 25% of RV.
The problem with Cerelac coalition is who be the candidate - If it's GEMA candidate - the Kalonzo/MaDVD will bail out - if it's MaDVD - or Kalonzo - GEMA may not play ball.
Pundit, I keep reminding you that the nos and percentages you post here are hocus pocus, karumanzira, kiini macho......
Where does Ruto get 25% in RV.
Going by 2017 nos. percentage of votes cast to total
North; Turkana, Samburu & West Pokot - 2.3%
Core Counties; Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu & Baringo - 10%
Madoadoa; Nakuru, Laikipia & Transzoia - 8%
Maasai; Narok & Kajiado - 4%
Give Ruto 100% of core counties and 60% of the other rift counties, Ruto tops up at 18.5%.
How you get 25% of the national vote while the entire Rift vote is 24% is what I call kalongo-longo math
why 60% ..not 65%...you see we are painting in broad brushes but RV is about 25% if you factor turn out...Ruto start with almost all of it if kamatusa plus gems diaspora play ball.Next Ruto goes to Nairobi, Central and Mt Kenya east where at worse he looking at 50% if not more of the voters...that already takes him past 40%...I mean worse case scenario...otherwise it almost 50% at that time...then rest of country Ruto will try get 20 or 30 percent here and there
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Robina..by elections have their own dynamic..but generally dying Jubilee is still gov but not worth a fight..technically UDA is part of Jubilee and Ruto is still jubilee deputy party leader.Juja ,Garissa and Huruma uda decided to support family. I don't see jubilee having any future to be a threat...its like uhuru...the lameduck is becoming powerless everyday.He will attempt to play everyone but soon he has to pick PORK candidate and deal with subsequent fallout.Ruto therefore just has to wait it out as he builds UDA..Ruto biggest threat was Raila..who is getting killed by one Kenya friendly fire...so Ruto is now waiting for cerelac candidate to compete with in GEMA trenches..
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Bbi fate lies with judiciary..it also will be time barred for stuff like 70 extra seats if by August it's not the law..and being unpopular with Kenyans I don't see anybody talking about it in 2022...if it survive judiciary assault.Its very likely parliament will told to enact referendum law and BBI to restarted again following some guidelines.That will bury BBI.
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Jubilee is UDA's biggest threat actually - because of Uhuru anti-Ruto hostility. Power concede nothing - so why can't the families vie on UDA ticket? Swali tu 8) Ruto would only rest easy if Gema were lined up in UDA instead they are stuck in Jubilee and a few PEP or TSP. When exactly do you see the en masse defections to UDA? While likes of Didmus and Jumwa have refused or offloaded. The attempts to gate-crush Ukambani and Luhya is reducing risk and hedging bets, which has largely flopped. Now Gema are a more critical plunk than before Cerelac locked UDA out elsewhere.
Ati deputy party leader.... in paper only. Zero control and that makes it a very bad situation. Bulk of Gema (as in most regions) have refused to board MV UDA. Main sticking point I believe is the BBI watermelon disposition.
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UDA is not the final piece; this stop gap; just to deal with technicalities; I expect Ruto will form Hustler Coalition with many parties; in GEMA; Ruto will not go for tight coupling - he will allow Moses Kurias, TSPs and name them to compete with UDA - in a friendly fire.
As for Jubilee - that is very bad name now - it's like KANU. Tuju and Murathe will be hawking them nomination and there will be no takers. Even kieleweke band are now confused.
Jubilee is UDA's biggest threat actually - because of Uhuru anti-Ruto hostility. Power concede nothing - so why can't the families vie on UDA ticket? Swali tu 8) Ruto would only rest easy if Gema were lined up in UDA instead they are stuck in Jubilee and a few PEP or TSP. When exactly do you see the en masse defections to UDA? While likes of Didmus and Jumwa have refused or offloaded. The attempts to gate-crush Ukambani and Luhya is reducing risk and hedging bets, which has largely flopped. Now Gema are a more critical plunk than before Cerelac locked UDA out elsewhere.
Ati deputy party leader.... in paper only. Zero control and that makes it a very bad situation. Bulk of Gema (as in most regions) have refused to board MV UDA. Main sticking point I believe is the BBI watermelon disposition.
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That just conjecture about the future. Meantime confusion will kill you - what is UDA stand on BBI? Who is UDA candidate? Is Ruto in UDA? :)
So long as Uhuru line-up PK as PM under Jubilee expect people to stay put and give UDA a wide berth. See how Wakapee widow or Haji kid automatically go Jubilee and avoid UDA jinx. PEP and TSP will probably bail and align with Jubilee. It more likely BBI coalition will stick than Gema moving to UDA in big numbers.
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Okay everyone in GEMA is waiting for Prince Uhuru direction. PK the PM and Raila the PORK. Bhangi mbichi. The prince who has completely destroyed GEMA economy and is now threatening their future including diaspora life and properties. Some weed.
That just conjecture about the future. Meantime confusion will kill you - what is UDA stand on BBI? Who is UDA candidate? Is Ruto in UDA? :)
So long as Uhuru line-up PK as PM under Jubilee expect people to stay put and give UDA a wide berth. See how Wakapee widow or Haji kid automatically go Jubilee and avoid UDA jinx. PEP and TSP will probably bail and align with Jubilee. It more likely BBI coalition will stick than Gema moving to UDA in big numbers.
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why 60% ..not 65%...you see we are painting in broad brushes but RV is about 25% if you factor turn out...Ruto start with almost all of it if kamatusa plus gems diaspora play ball.Next Ruto goes to Nairobi, Central and Mt Kenya east where at worse he looking at 50% if not more of the voters...that already takes him past 40%...I mean worse case scenario...otherwise it almost 50% at that time...then rest of country Ruto will try get 20 or 30 percent here and there
Why 60%, its what they collected while teamed up with Uhuru in 2017, which was an improvement of 2013. a near impossible to best it in 2022 while alone. And that math is very generous e.g 100% Uasin Gishu and 60% Narok.
You are talking about a clean sweep of matusa, 100%?
Pundit, even you know thats spinning yarns.
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Kamatusa plus all pastoralist are united behind Ruto; You see Uhuru being a kikuyu was toxic candidate outside GEMA; and maybe Gusii region is only pro-GEMA friendly region; In coast, western and name it; he was hard sell; In 2013 - Uhuru scored 4% of western votes:) 1% of Luo Nyanza; and I think 15% of Coast if not worse; Ukambani was also bad.
Ruto is easy sell almost everywhere; first candidate who may unite GEMA and Non-GEMA; The rest have to unite against him; but will they really unite? I think their strategy right now is to deny Ruto the first round win - and gang up in 2nd round.
Why 60%, its what they collected while teamed up with Uhuru in 2017, which was an improvement of 2013. a near impossible to best it in 2022 while alone. And that math is very generous e.g 100% Uasin Gishu and 60% Narok.
You are talking about a clean sweep of matusa, 100%?
Pundit, even you know thats spinning yarns.
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Those long tales... Ruto is equally toxic on so many levels. I mean UDA had to skip Kiambaa MCA by-elections not to wake PEV ghosts. You seem to think Jubilee gains were all Ruto, but nope, Uhuru is quite the schemer and landed likes of Lenku, Mvurya to beat ODM. Way he is steering One Kenya and BBI now Ruto is a deer in the headlights.
How Ruto was to score 50% Gema might be the funniest meme in 2022. Unless a miracle happens and Uhuru aids him.
Kamatusa plus all pastoralist are united behind Ruto; You see Uhuru being a kikuyu was toxic candidate outside GEMA; and maybe Gusii region is only pro-GEMA friendly region; In coast, western and name it; he was hard sell; In 2013 - Uhuru scored 4% of western votes:) 1% of Luo Nyanza; and I think 15% of Coast if not worse; Ukambani was also bad.
Ruto is easy sell almost everywhere; first candidate who may unite GEMA and Non-GEMA; The rest have to unite against him; but will they really unite? I think their strategy right now is to deny Ruto the first round win - and gang up in 2nd round.
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Uhuru is PORK; wait until Ruto is PORK; and see how he will win re-election with magufuli style 85%. Ruto is just but now a Raia; and yet Uhuru and entire opposition are uniting against him ; and the man is just idling in Karen. Eti Mvurya sijui Lenku :) - those are dead as dodo - the are new players you need to be aware - like Mwashetanis and Mary Senator huko Kajiado.
Outgoing governor and outoging PORK uniting is laughable - unless they are forming retirement club of kenya.
Bottomline; Ruto is the man to beat in 2022; his nearest competitor Raila is political dying as we speak;
Now only option for rest is to UNITE AGAINST RUTO; how now? They have to zone out their tribal regions and hope they deny Ruto the 50% in first round.
If they don't - well Ruto is seen as only VIABLE NATIONAL SERIOUS CANDIDATE.
Those long tales... Ruto is equally toxic on so many levels. I mean UDA had to skip Kiambaa MCA by-elections not to wake PEV ghosts. You seem to think Jubilee gains were all Ruto, but nope, Uhuru is quite the schemer and landed likes of Lenku, Mvurya to beat ODM. Way he is steering One Kenya and BBI now Ruto is a deer in the headlights.
How Ruto was to score 50% Gema might be the funniest meme in 2022. Unless a miracle happens and Uhuru aids him.
Kamatusa plus all pastoralist are united behind Ruto; You see Uhuru being a kikuyu was toxic candidate outside GEMA; and maybe Gusii region is only pro-GEMA friendly region; In coast, western and name it; he was hard sell; In 2013 - Uhuru scored 4% of western votes:) 1% of Luo Nyanza; and I think 15% of Coast if not worse; Ukambani was also bad.
Ruto is easy sell almost everywhere; first candidate who may unite GEMA and Non-GEMA; The rest have to unite against him; but will they really unite? I think their strategy right now is to deny Ruto the first round win - and gang up in 2nd round.
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Lol Raila is the raia that pulled the rag from under the former co-president and anointed successor, hubris will kill you man. Ruto just got a serious beating and that shows you the power of those Cerelac babies. Who would have thought Weta can clobber hustler nation that hard. Even on twitter you can see the Tangatanga-hustler fake confidence is gone. Itumbi noise is much less.
We are still waiting for the court to kill BBI. Such a coalition of Cerelac wannabes was impossible before; but now BBI give them a bone each. Uhuru is just a facilitator but everyone is in for their own interest. They want power it not only about Ruto. Only Giddy seem delusional enough to think he can be PORK with 10 Baringo MCAs: desperate Kalonzo and Mdvds know it fat chance so they are angling for D/PM. That remain Ruto soft underbelly: he has no credible offer for anyone.
Now ati kingpins are dead :o only if they were going home. BBI make them new kingpins from mere governor. Mvurya-Kingi are more powerful than 2017.
Uhuru is PORK; wait until Ruto is PORK; and see how he will win re-election with magufuli style 85%. Ruto is just but now a Raia; and yet Uhuru and entire opposition are uniting against him ; and the man is just idling in Karen. Eti Mvurya sijui Lenku :) - those are dead as dodo - the are new players you need to be aware - like Mwashetanis and Mary Senator huko Kajiado.
Outgoing governor and outoging PORK uniting is laughable - unless they are forming retirement club of kenya.
Bottomline; Ruto is the man to beat in 2022; his nearest competitor Raila is political dying as we speak;
Now only option for rest is to UNITE AGAINST RUTO; how now? They have to zone out their tribal regions and hope they deny Ruto the 50% in first round.
If they don't - well Ruto is seen as only VIABLE NATIONAL SERIOUS CANDIDATE.
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How many kingpins and tribal lords do you need to counter Ruto; it appears the number now is easily 30 :) or well 47 governors and equal number of wannabes!! The time for coalition is not NOW. Anybody doing coalition now is a JOKER. Coalition are done in last quarter of 2022.
The time now is to gather as much support as you can!
Coalition will be done in 2022 when boys and men will be separated; Likes of Weta with 4 mps in Bukusu cannot get into any serious negotiation table and therefore his by-election win is pyrrhic!
If you are expecting Ruto to go round desperately looking for me too alliance like Raila and One Kenya - huko na shida kweli.
Coalition will happen next year! Ruto job btw now and 2022 is to keep GEMA and have national footprint to deal with few Kieleweke Uhuru may convince - this where 20% here and there come in.
Lol Raila is the raia that pulled the rag from under the former co-president and anointed successor, hubris will kill you man. Ruto just got a serious beating and that shows you the power of those Cerelac babies. Who would have thought Weta can clobber hustler nation that hard. Even on twitter you can see the Tangatanga-hustler fake confidence is gone. Itumbi noise is much less.
We are still waiting for the court to kill BBI. Such a coalition of Cerelac wannabes was impossible before; but now BBI give them a bone each. Uhuru is just a facilitator but everyone is in for their own interest. They want power it not only about Ruto. Only Giddy seem delusional enough to think he can be PORK with 10 Baringo MCAs: desperate Kalonzo and Mdvds know it fat chance so they are angling for D/PM. That remain Ruto soft underbelly: he has no credible offer for anyone.
Now ati kingpins are dead :o only if they were going home. BBI make them new kingpins from mere governor. Mvurya-Kingi are more powerful than 2017.
Uhuru is PORK; wait until Ruto is PORK; and see how he will win re-election with magufuli style 85%. Ruto is just but now a Raia; and yet Uhuru and entire opposition are uniting against him ; and the man is just idling in Karen. Eti Mvurya sijui Lenku :) - those are dead as dodo - the are new players you need to be aware - like Mwashetanis and Mary Senator huko Kajiado.
Outgoing governor and outoging PORK uniting is laughable - unless they are forming retirement club of kenya.
Bottomline; Ruto is the man to beat in 2022; his nearest competitor Raila is political dying as we speak;
Now only option for rest is to UNITE AGAINST RUTO; how now? They have to zone out their tribal regions and hope they deny Ruto the 50% in first round.
If they don't - well Ruto is seen as only VIABLE NATIONAL SERIOUS CANDIDATE.
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Those Kivuthas and Mvuryas are not "needed to counter Ruto". They DUMPED Ruto because he has nothing to offer. It is not that Ruto has a 50-50 strategy therefore only needs noone but RVGema... that pure nonsense. Nobody is joining Ruto because Uhuru-Raila have better chance of winning.
There is nothing more laughable than saying Jubilee (asili :)) is intact and that is all Ruto needs. He is scampering for breath and holding night meetings. Watu maekataa kuunga UDA.
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Pundit you really believe people will quit Jubilee to join Ruto en masse at 11th hour. What happened to MPs and everyone gravitating to ground? I mean you are already in 12th hour but nada. Except a handful of Nyoro and Kihika I have not seen any serious UDA traction. Gema are put in Jubilee, non-Gema are joining Cerelac or Raila.
Wake up n smell the coffee.
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Ruto is the brand..jubilee is a bad name now..mt Kenya people want Ruto..political class will follow the ground.Elsewhere all I see is NASA splitting into two camps...and expecting to win against Ruto who carries the dream of jubilee asili...minus tuju papers.Next election will be determined by GEMA...the rest are details. Raila has completely failed to win GEMA. SO HE IS OUT..battle is btw Ruto and maybe one Kenya...Uhuru knows Raila is kaput and is trying to sell someone else...we don't know who..madvd or gideon or even kaloi can get traction in gema..but Raila nope..will gema listen to a failure like uhuru..when they didn't listen to a hero like Kibaki..nope. uhuru has scandalized gema.He is like Moi to kalenjin..an embarrassment they had to endure as he killed all key sectors in kalenjin land and made everyone a pauper
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this how it feels to be Ruto minion... end of the road
Governor Okoth Obado: I won’t vie for Uriri Parliamentary seat, it is like kalongo longo in my village
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thenairobian/politics/2001408934/governor-obado-i-wont-vie-for-mp-seat-it-is-like-kalongo-longo-in-my-village
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Maybe he will go for Senate - or presidency under PDP (which affliate of Hustler Nation); All in all for first time we have Luo who can take on Raila. Obado has enough thugs to counter Raila in Migori. If you add Kurias in there who are already 40%; Migori can flip for Hustler Nation; All we need from Obado is to get us 20% of Luo votes.
this how it feels to be Ruto minion... end of the road
Governor Okoth Obado: I won’t vie for Uriri Parliamentary seat, it is like kalongo longo in my village
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thenairobian/politics/2001408934/governor-obado-i-wont-vie-for-mp-seat-it-is-like-kalongo-longo-in-my-village
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going rogue is good move for Obado compared to Orengos who will have to square with Johos. ODM is crowded space.
but also for Luo. Raila expiry date is near so we need more of these alternative voices. Orengo and Nyong'o are baba agemates. Mbadis are featherweights.
Lest the point is forgotten: going for MP/senator while opposing BBI is laughing stalk. Village kalongo longo. It a mountain to net any influencer with such selfish strategy. Ruto shackled himself.
Maybe he will go for Senate - or presidency under PDP (which affliate of Hustler Nation); All in all for first time we have Luo who can take on Raila. Obado has enough thugs to counter Raila in Migori. If you add Kurias in there who are already 40%; Migori can flip for Hustler Nation; All we need from Obado is to get us 20% of Luo votes.
this how it feels to be Ruto minion... end of the road
Governor Okoth Obado: I won’t vie for Uriri Parliamentary seat, it is like kalongo longo in my village
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thenairobian/politics/2001408934/governor-obado-i-wont-vie-for-mp-seat-it-is-like-kalongo-longo-in-my-village
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BBI popularity last I checked was 20%: 80% opposed BBI; Maybe we BBI fortunes have changed; But remember for mwananchi BBI is unnecessary burden; So I don't get why you've almost bet your life on BBI; are you as senile as Raila.
The reality is BBI has nothing for outgoing govenors - not unless they are all deluded they will become prime minister or deputy - those are just two positions - and require one to be an MP.
What this mean is for outgoing 1) Go for Senate 2) Go for MP 2) Aim to become Minister - by supporting top candidates.
going rogue is good move for Obado compared to Orengos who will have to square with Johos. ODM is crowded space.
but also for Luo. Raila expiry date is near so we need more of these alternative voices. Orengo and Nyong'o are baba agemates. Mbadis are featherweights.
Lest the point is forgotten: going for MP/senator while opposing BBI is laughing stalk. Village kalongo longo. It a mountain to net any influencer with such selfish strategy. Ruto shackled himself.
Maybe he will go for Senate - or presidency under PDP (which affliate of Hustler Nation); All in all for first time we have Luo who can take on Raila. Obado has enough thugs to counter Raila in Migori. If you add Kurias in there who are already 40%; Migori can flip for Hustler Nation; All we need from Obado is to get us 20% of Luo votes.
this how it feels to be Ruto minion... end of the road
Governor Okoth Obado: I won’t vie for Uriri Parliamentary seat, it is like kalongo longo in my village
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thenairobian/politics/2001408934/governor-obado-i-wont-vie-for-mp-seat-it-is-like-kalongo-longo-in-my-village
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My point exactly. As you can see Kingi and Kivutha don't buy your BBI is unpopular. Most Mutuas don't mind to be MP - while BBI save them the kalongo embarassment. It golden parachute. The Ruto option means non-pensioned retirement.
BBI popularity last I checked was 20%: 80% opposed BBI; Maybe we BBI fortunes have changed; But remember for mwananchi BBI is unnecessary burden; So I don't get why you've almost bet your life on BBI; are you as senile as Raila.
The reality is BBI has nothing for outgoing govenors - not unless they are all deluded they will become prime minister or deputy - those are just two positions - and require one to be an MP.
What this mean is for outgoing 1) Go for Senate 2) Go for MP 2) Aim to become Minister - by supporting top candidates.
going rogue is good move for Obado compared to Orengos who will have to square with Johos. ODM is crowded space.
but also for Luo. Raila expiry date is near so we need more of these alternative voices. Orengo and Nyong'o are baba agemates. Mbadis are featherweights.
Lest the point is forgotten: going for MP/senator while opposing BBI is laughing stalk. Village kalongo longo. It a mountain to net any influencer with such selfish strategy. Ruto shackled himself.
Maybe he will go for Senate - or presidency under PDP (which affliate of Hustler Nation); All in all for first time we have Luo who can take on Raila. Obado has enough thugs to counter Raila in Migori. If you add Kurias in there who are already 40%; Migori can flip for Hustler Nation; All we need from Obado is to get us 20% of Luo votes.
this how it feels to be Ruto minion... end of the road
Governor Okoth Obado: I won’t vie for Uriri Parliamentary seat, it is like kalongo longo in my village
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thenairobian/politics/2001408934/governor-obado-i-wont-vie-for-mp-seat-it-is-like-kalongo-longo-in-my-village
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Jubilee crafted a winning coaliton without BBI. There are enough position now to be shared - there is nothing new BBI will create. Ruto will offer your the Majority Leader = Prime Minister. Others will get Speaker. Others will get Cabinet executive.
If you want to expend a lot of energy chasing BBI mirage - go for it. It wont change anything in power matrix - PORK will remain POWERFUL PORK.
You don't need BBI to share power. You need someone trusty worthy. Otherwise like Ruto is now idle - nothing really can force PORK to share power if they dont want to.
My point exactly. As you can see Kingi and Kivutha don't buy your BBI is unpopular. Most Mutuas don't mind to be MP - while BBI save them the kalongo embarassment. It golden parachute. The Ruto option means non-pensioned retirement.
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Dismiss BBI at your own peril. Mdvd does not want Majority Leader but D/PM. If you are Kingi how do you support Ruto - take his word that you will be CS? What if he loses?
In BBI, you angle for DPM or CS but if Raila lose you still bag MP.
Jubilee coalition was winning formula before Handshake implosion. Now Kalenjin are UDA, Gema are Jubilee or PEP, Barasas are Ford-K. Mvurya is forming new party. Duales are MIA :)
You are loudly silent on Kiambaa by-election.
Jubilee crafted a winning coaliton without BBI. There are enough position now to be shared - there is nothing new BBI will create. Ruto will offer your the Majority Leader = Prime Minister. Others will get Speaker. Others will get Cabinet executive.
If you want to expend a lot of energy chasing BBI mirage - go for it. It wont change anything in power matrix - PORK will remain POWERFUL PORK.
You don't need BBI to share power. You need someone trusty worthy. Otherwise like Ruto is now idle - nothing really can force PORK to share power if they dont want to.
My point exactly. As you can see Kingi and Kivutha don't buy your BBI is unpopular. Most Mutuas don't mind to be MP - while BBI save them the kalongo embarassment. It golden parachute. The Ruto option means non-pensioned retirement.
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BBI won't change nothing. Power will remain about Trust.
Anyway Jubilee has no future. It's being killed by Corona and NASA.
Jubilee is now a bad brand. It like KANU.
New parties will emerge.
Ruto gameplan is to form Hustler Coalition..from many parties...so UDA is just part of the journey.
GEMA ground has given hope on Uhuru and is waiting for Ruto - to offer them a deal.
That deal will be 50% - signed by Kiunjuri and GEMA leaders - hiyo tu - and it will be done next year.
Uhuru will NOT attempt Raila :) his 5% support will evaporate!
He will go for maDVD or someone else.
Always remember Jubilee the party is dead - but Jubilee the vision is alive.
Jubilee was killed by NASA mixing it in...but Jubilee members knows Ruto carries their dream and vision.
Dismiss BBI at your own peril. Mdvd does not want Majority Leader but D/PM. If you are Kingi how do you support Ruto - take his word that you will be CS? What if he loses?
In BBI, you angle for DPM or CS but if Raila lose you still bag MP.
Jubilee coalition was winning formula before Handshake implosion. Now Kalenjin are UDA, Gema are Jubilee or PEP, Barasas are Ford-K. Mvurya is forming new party. Duales are MIA :)
You are loudly silent on Kiambaa by-election.
Jubilee crafted a winning coaliton without BBI. There are enough position now to be shared - there is nothing new BBI will create. Ruto will offer your the Majority Leader = Prime Minister. Others will get Speaker. Others will get Cabinet executive.
If you want to expend a lot of energy chasing BBI mirage - go for it. It wont change anything in power matrix - PORK will remain POWERFUL PORK.
You don't need BBI to share power. You need someone trusty worthy. Otherwise like Ruto is now idle - nothing really can force PORK to share power if they dont want to.
My point exactly. As you can see Kingi and Kivutha don't buy your BBI is unpopular. Most Mutuas don't mind to be MP - while BBI save them the kalongo embarassment. It golden parachute. The Ruto option means non-pensioned retirement.
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Lots of ifs and buts. Jubilee is winning seats, some unopposed, long before PK get annointed. Ruto best chance is IF Uhuru betrays Raila - which is very unlikely since Uhuru key motivation is to thwart Ruto. My assessment is Uhuru has masterfully edged Ruto out of Gema - while you were stuck in Uhurutopia - bulk will vote where he tells them provided they get big carrot - PM and the BBI 1M1V1S overt inducements. Noone will sell Raila but vote for coalition deal akin to Kalenjin 2013+17. You are conflating this BBI Raila with Arap Mibei. Raila bushy fox tail and excess fat are being trimmed to resemble harmless Merino sheep. Raila "weakness" make BBI lineup more palatable.
Anyway it few months to showtime. Ruto is yet to cobble newer safina... to rescue hustlers from UDA wreckage.
BBI won't change nothing. Power will remain about Trust.
Anyway Jubilee has no future. It's being killed by Corona and NASA.
Jubilee is now a bad brand. It like KANU.
New parties will emerge.
Ruto gameplan is to form Hustler Coalition..from many parties...so UDA is just part of the journey.
GEMA ground has given hope on Uhuru and is waiting for Ruto - to offer them a deal.
That deal will be 50% - signed by Kiunjuri and GEMA leaders - hiyo tu - and it will be done next year.
Uhuru will NOT attempt Raila :) his 5% support will evaporate!
He will go for maDVD or someone else.
Always remember Jubilee the party is dead - but Jubilee the vision is alive.
Jubilee was killed by NASA mixing it in...but Jubilee members knows Ruto carries their dream and vision.
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well as always come d-day you'll be wrong.
You're looking at lagging indicators - Jubilee is gov - Ruto himself is technical in Jubilee and so are the UDA brigade.
The leading indicators - Jubilee is dead as dodo.
Come 2022 - Jubilee will be lucky to get 20 Mps - heck 10mps will be their max.
Uhuru has completely killed the party!!!!!!
Obviously when a cow dies - you'll find ticks still sucking the blood - unaware their host is dead. Lagging versus leading indicators.
Jubilee has been killed by Uhuru (No PG/elections/nothing - just impostor Tuju/Murathe) and NASA (handshake) - but some ticks will suck it's blood for another few months.
Come next year - around 1st Q of 2022 -as current gov tenure ends- you'll know Jubilee died, Uhuru is powerless and Kenya will move on.
Increasingly you'll see the real color of politician as they listen to the ground.
Kieleweke crew as we speak are DEAD as DODO...many are trying to run to Ruto...because they know Uhuru is retiring...doesn't give much of a fu.ck ..and they will face the wananchi wrath.
Who want to go back to Wananchi with a party that has basically bankrupted Kenya :) Who on his right mind will trust Tuju-Murathe to say preside nomination - 2017 Ruto had to camp in Pangani :)
My friend if Jubilee get 10Mps - it should count itself as lucky as KANU. KANU still get MPS in remote part of kenyan where people don't know much about Kenya :) - and many think Moi/KANU/Kenya are one thing.
It very likely Raila will inherit and own Jubilee mess - as Jubilee members run far away from it - blaming handshake for the mess. The same way Uhuru and Ruto run away from KANU.
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All that insha. By "Jubilee is winning" I mean people especially the Gema-TNA constituency is with Uhuru not Ruto. That is what the Garissa and Juja scenarios show. They can even move to PK KNC or any new brand just not UDA. Ruto is not the only viper capable of shedding skin.
Anyway wake us up when anyone but Kalenjin, Nyoro and Echesa move to UDA.
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Long insha short. Uhuru is retiring - with economy on it's knees. He is like Moi of 2002. Jubilee is like KANU. If Uhuru was interested in Jubilee - he would hold elections, revamp it and name it.
I will be suprised next yr if anybody will want to associate with it.
Jubilee is dead but Jubilee spirit lives in Ruto and company.
All that insha. By "Jubilee is winning" I mean people especially the Gema-TNA constituency is with Uhuru not Ruto. That is what the Garissa and Juja scenarios show. They can even move to PK KNC or any new brand just not UDA. Ruto is not the only viper capable of shedding skin.
Anyway wake us up when anyone but Kalenjin, Nyoro and Echesa move to UDA.
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Gema and Uhuru crew (Matiang'is) will just ship to new party - same way Kalenjin have shipped to UDA. I think you are very wrong to count on "Jubilee laity" especially Gema being with Ruto but somehow mark-timing in Jubilee. That a self-deception. If they are with Ruto UDA would sweep by-elections in Gema areas. Why step down for PEP with flimsy excuses like respecting Uhuru who is supposed to be so unpopular? That is a big contradiction.
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UDA and affiliate parties have only lost Naivasha/Ruiru (where ODM crew helped Jubilee) otherwise Jubilee has lost everywhere- where GEMA are majority - in Muranga, In Naivasha, In Nakuru.
I won't count Eldoret because UDA out of respect for Chomba and sensitive issues stayed away. The same way UDA stayed out of Garissa. UDA are not keen to get into a contest with Uhuru. Ruto strategy is to pretend to respect Uhuru - and play time. Big difference with Raila - who normally would be all GUN BLAZING - every battle - but come the war - he is MIA.
GEMA are in Ruto - some will come directly - others will want to come through Kiunjuri/Moses kuria/other parties.
Ruto has the ground gema from Meru to Nakuru.
Uhuru is facing open rebellion almost - as we speak half GEMA MPS openly do not want to hear anything from a sitting pork - the other half are making hay while the sun shines - but will all quit Uhuru collapsing thing.
See Kangata, Mwaura, Muthomi Njuki for reference.
The ground is very hostile on Uhuru - GEMA are not ready for betrayal.
Gema and Uhuru crew (Matiang'is) will just ship to new party - same way Kalenjin have shipped to UDA. I think you are very wrong to count on "Jubilee laity" especially Gema being with Ruto but somehow mark-timing in Jubilee. That a self-deception. If they are with Ruto UDA would sweep by-elections in Gema areas. Why step down for PEP with flimsy excuses like respecting Uhuru who is supposed to be so unpopular? That is a big contradiction.
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London and Hell's Gate are 80% Kikuyu - how many did UDA bag? It was a sobering underperformance. Ati Gema MPs are with Ruto... any time a roll-call is done Gema and in fact bulk of Jublee MPs side with Uhuru: when they hanged Kindiki it was 44-7 :) - only 4 Kalenjin and 3 Gema senators backed Ruto dwarf, everyone else backed Uhuru. When they hanged Duale it was unanimous - poor Ruto choked when asked to salimia watu. BBI bill which Ruto opposes at night and plays watermelon daytime... unanimous in Gema. See? Ruto is outfoxed by Uhuru at every turn.
Now talk Kiambaa. Since Uhuru is so unpopular, do you really believe UDA "respect Uhuru" or are afraid of losing? I mean with gazillion debt and IMF shenanigans it should be cakewalk to beat Uhuru guy, no?But you see UDA just lost in all Cerelac regions despite the all-appealing hustler nonsense, how would Ruto maintain the front-runner facade if he lost in Kiambu? That is the real conundrum in Juja and Kiambaa - UDA would be exposed as Kalenjin party. If Ruto had a bankable Gema following he would be dying to flaunt it. But you are already telling us there is another hustler coalition in the works.
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Ruto game play is too advance for you. Ruto will not fight Uhuru unless it neccessary. Last year he told his people including Duale to stand down. Kangata became the chief whip - and few months was back with Ruto - after going round Muranga.
The same with by-elections - Ruto will analyse - for Garissa, Eldoret and Juja - UDA stood down for family.
Jubilee members are allowed to benefit from Jubilee if they can before bailing out next year - coz the party has no future.Maybe Matiangi-Kagwe will inherit it; if they do not do a coalition with cerelac.
How many GEMA mps support Ruto - more than 40 - that is more than half - openly in rebellion against Uhuru - who is PORK with power and patronage. The rest are buying time.
London and Hell's Gate are 80% Kikuyu - how many did UDA bag? It was a sobering underperformance. Ati Gema MPs are with Ruto... any time a roll-call is done Gema and in fact bulk of Jublee MPs side with Uhuru: when they hanged Kindiki it was 44-7 :) - only 4 Kalenjin and 3 Gema senators backed Ruto dwarf, everyone else backed Uhuru. When they hanged Duale it was unanimous - poor Ruto choked when asked to salimia watu. BBI bill which Ruto opposes at night and plays watermelon daytime... unanimous in Gema. See? Ruto is outfoxed by Uhuru at every turn.
Now talk Kiambaa. Since Uhuru is so unpopular, do you really believe UDA "respect Uhuru" or are afraid of losing? I mean with gazillion debt and IMF shenanigans it should be cakewalk to beat Uhuru guy, no?But you see UDA just lost in all Cerelac regions despite the all-appealing hustler nonsense, how would Ruto maintain the front-runner facade if he lost in Kiambu? That is the real conundrum in Juja and Kiambaa - UDA would be exposed as Kalenjin party. If Ruto had a bankable Gema following he would be dying to flaunt it. But you are already telling us there is another hustler coalition in the works.
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Pundit those Gema MPs who support Ruto should have backed Duale and Kindiki. Unless the "support" is just lip service. Ruto crew meet in Naivasha or Karen and post unverified numbers - ati 140 - but when a crucial vote is called they back Uhuru-Raila. You can only measure support by numbers on the floor not spin.
Haha Uhuru is wildly unpopular but somehow Ruto plays "advanced game" not to cross huis path. So is UDA fielding Kiambaa or not? :)
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In Murang'a you can clearly see who is with Ruto - Nyoro, Wahome, Kang'ata. Rest are Uhuru waiting for his orders. Kiambu it mere Ichung'wa - Kuria is a PEP long-ranger. Ditto in Kirinyaga, Nyeri, etc. There is no "secret support" - only governors or nominated you can claim are intimidated. Kang'ata or Gachagua are doing their thing and the others are doing the same. They used to be with Ruto and gradually left - it was in the news: Waiguru, Sabina, Kanini Kega, Cate Waruguru and shebang. Gema MPs and leaders DUMPED Ruto. The few diehards are cold-feet over UDA. Only few Nyoro, kIhika openly associate with UDA. Compared with 90% Kalenjin.
UDA is Kalenjin party :)
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Ruto did not and does not intend to fight or frustrate Uhuru. It's different strategy from Raila betrayal with KIbaki. You cannot do the same thing and expect different results.
Ruto is playing smart strategy on Uhuru giving no way to justify his betrayal of Jubilee vision and dream.
Pundit those Gema MPs who support Ruto should have backed Duale and Kindiki. Unless the "support" is just lip service. Ruto crew meet in Naivasha or Karen and post unverified numbers - ati 140 - but when a crucial vote is called they back Uhuru-Raila. You can only measure support by numbers on the floor not spin.
Haha Uhuru is wildly unpopular but somehow Ruto plays "advanced game" not to cross huis path. So is UDA fielding Kiambaa or not? :)
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UDA is national party. ODM is now moving to regional party.
In Murang'a you can clearly see who is with Ruto - Nyoro, Wahome, Kang'ata. Rest are Uhuru waiting for his orders. Kiambu it mere Ichung'wa - Kuria is a PEP long-ranger. Ditto in Kirinyaga, Nyeri, etc. There is no "secret support" - only governors or nominated you can claim are intimidated. Kang'ata or Gachagua are doing their thing and the others are doing the same. They used to be with Ruto and gradually left - it was in the news: Waiguru, Sabina, Kanini Kega, Cate Waruguru and shebang. Gema MPs and leaders DUMPED Ruto. The few diehards are cold-feet over UDA. Only few Nyoro, kIhika openly associate with UDA. Compared with 90% Kalenjin.
UDA is Kalenjin party :)
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Uhuru has control of everything. he is playing everyone. The crack head has made Ruto irrelavant. Yaani a crack head beating a chai drinking Mathafaka
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Uhuru has control of everything. he is playing everyone. The crack head has made Ruto irrelavant. Yaani a crack head beating a chai drinking Mathafaka
:)
Pundit's tail-chasing spin: Ruto has been floored by paperweights like Weta, Mdvd, Kalonzo. In Juja and Kiambaa he has ducked the bullet for Kuria. Kuria is himself wailing for sympathy claiming drinking past curfew is persecution. Despite all this, Ruto magically has an iron grip on Mt Kenya.
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Uhuru has control of everything. he is playing everyone. The crack head has made Ruto irrelavant. Yaani a crack head beating a chai drinking Mathafaka
Worth to note I think Ruto underestimated Gatheca. He might have been carried away by the mlevi thing. Actually its typical behaviour for teetotalers to think drunkards are easy prey. All the time you will hear ni wajinga pesa anamalizia kwa pombe and other crap but most wealthy and influential people in the world are actually typical walevi me included.
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Mzee Njur what is your take on the state of affairs? Does Ruto have an iron grip on Mt Kenya? Can he bank them?
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Mzee Njur what is your take on the state of affairs? Does Ruto have an iron grip on Mt Kenya? Can he bank them?
This dangling with baba has shaken his supporters kwa mlima there is a certain level of disappointment.Like Noway says mountain people support Ruto to destroy baba but if the current stories are true kuna shida. Its possible gatheca is spreading this malicious rumors to try finish Ruto after everything else failed
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Mzee Njuri: i see you fall for the ruse. That Ruto has Gema under lock & key. The indicators show the opposite.
Ruto designed his presidential run on beating Raila as the non-Gema supremo. He nailed Kalenjin pre-2012. Then he used the Jubilee monolith and heavy bribery to encroach on Ukambani (esp Machakos), Luhya (Bukusu), Coast (Kwale), Gusii, Maa. Swing regions saw most of ODM incumbents edged out. He used 2017 Jubilee primaries mlolongo to lineup his cronies in Gema and sabotage PK, Kabogo, Kinuthia Mbugua, etc.
How has it turned out? How has he fared in say Luhya? He started by hawking Eugene in Nairobi pre-2017. Flop. Next he lined up Lusaka, Washiali, Echesa, Mariga and a whole train of ingokho. Despite having half the MPs in Bungoma as his diehard psychophants - he lost hands-down to the worthless fool Weta. Kakamega, Kisii, Machakos same thing or worse. This exposed his soft underbelly: that Ruto has no real following past the army of bots on twitter and mega-rallies. Before the recent dog-beating by 4-1 margin :) - Pundit & Noway would plaster photos of mass rallies in Athi River or Kisii stadium here akin to Ford or Narc days.
You see spin works until it runs headfast into reality.
Mt Kenya is in fact the same story. Uhuru had noone a while back. Although we were often assured of his deep unpopularity, Tangatanga MPs had to be whipped out of his meetings. BBI passed unanimously in counties and remains very popular there. The turncoat became watermelon. In Nakuru UDA lost Hell's Gate and scratched London by 39%. Kikuyus are 80% of the voters there. Why did UDA find it okay to antagonize Uhuru and Jubilee in Nakuru but not in Juja or Kiambaa? Aren't they wildly popular in Gema? - which area is more purely Gema - Nakuru vs Kiambu? Oh don't worry this is rhetorical.
Ruto having been locked out of non-Gema by Cerelac - is desperate to maintain the front-runner facade. And cannot risk exposing his nudity in Mt Kenya.
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When Ruto won coast I didn't see you give the entire coast like you said he totally lost in cerelac areas.When real election come cerelac will not be able to step down for one another..uda will sneak in..otherwise Ruto strongholds remain jubilee strongholds that delivered 55%..Ruto is trying new conquest to compensate for a few gems votes he may lose otherwise he has about 80% or more of gema.Youre confusing the respect and support uhuru is getting as PORK for Raila like blind loyalty in Luo nyanza