Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on February 28, 2021, 09:31:56 AM
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Look like UDA may take Matungu, Kabuchai and most of the MCA seats.
Matungu - still 3 horse race btw Nalondo, Lanya and Were
Kabuchai - 2 horse race btw Majimbo and Kakai.
As for MCAs seat in Jubilee zone - nobody want to hear about Tuju-Murathe Jubilee - it's UDA all the way
ODM which is now just but a glorified NDP withdraws - everywhere except Matungu - and maybe Gusii MCA seat.
Machakos - 3 horse race btw Wiper, UDA and MCC.
Bottomline - UDA is everywhere.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/odm-pulls-out-of-london-hell-s-gate-ward-by-elections-to-back-jubilee--3306644
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Pole pole we nawe...
Look like UDA may take Matungu, Kabuchai and most of the MCA seats.
Matungu - still 3 horse race btw Nalondo, Lanya and Were
Kabuchai - 2 horse race btw Majimbo and Kakai.
As for MCAs seat in Jubilee zone - nobody want to hear about Tuju-Murathe Jubilee - it's UDA all the way
ODM which is now just but a glorified NDP withdraws - everywhere except Matungu - and maybe Gusii MCA seat.
Machakos - 3 horse race btw Wiper, UDA and MCC.
Bottomline - UDA is everywhere.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/odm-pulls-out-of-london-hell-s-gate-ward-by-elections-to-back-jubilee--3306644
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Siasa haifai tumbo joto.
Pole pole we nawe...
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Some analysis on London ward from Facebook - the tribal maths are insightful.
London Ward by elections is hard to predict who will carry the day between the top 3 aspirants who are:
1.Njosh
2.Nzuki
3.Gatusso
Fact findings..
Total registered voters is slightly above 18,000
Breakdown as per tribe,:
1.Kikuyus-6112
2.Kisiis-4532
3.Kalenjins_3523
4.Luos-1583
5.Kambas-1248
6.Luhyas-1123
7. Others eg Turkana, Maasai_250
My prediction...
Assuming vote turnout is 50 percentage, save for Kalenjins and Kisiis who cos of Aramah support and UDA love turn 70 percent,
A_Kisiis by majority will vote Njosh
B-Kalenjins to the last will vote for Nzuki cos of Ruto love
C -Kikuyus votes might be shared equally among the 3 but Gatuso gets higher number
D.-Luos, coz of BABA reqqae and Aramah love adding withdraw of their candidate they will vote for Nuosh
E.-Kambas and Luhyas might be shared equally.
F.Gatusso will have a higher number of votes from those independent minds who don't follow kingpins or tribe voting block.
In conclusion Njosh is slightly leading cos of Kisiis and Luo block vote before they coshare the rest.
Note _ if any of this 3 top aspirants fails to mobilise well his supporters to go and vote he will be shocked how he will loose terribly.
Finally Arama might have the last laugh against Tangatanga.
Any different opinion welcomed to oppose this but without feelings.
https://www.facebook.com/kinyanjui.wakibara/posts/245120000588225
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He is wrong that kikuyu votes will be shared equally. There has been two MCAs seats already in muranga and naivasha were Jubilee lost. Jubilee is odious. GEMA votes will vote like 70% for UDA and 30% for Jubilee. So UDA carry the seat.
Some analysis on London ward from Facebook - the tribal maths are insightful.
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It is hard to achieve dispassionate analysis in tribal maths. The analyst is a handshake person
The hasora branding is quite irresistible. London ward just like most suburbs near main towns are home to hasora- landloards, tenants, kiosk owners and all.
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Machakos ndio iko shida but it's on 18th march but UDA/Kuria party will be competitive tomorrow. Machakos seems Muthama personalized it - and therefore unless Hustler Nation sweep on 4th - and use the momentum in Ukambani - it may escape.
It is hard to achieve dispassionate analysis in tribal maths. The analyst is a handshake person
The hasora branding is quite irresistible. London ward just like most suburbs near main towns are home to hasora- landloards, tenants, kiosk owners and all.
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What a waste of time and resources politicking in Kenya is. Unemployed young men just milling about doing nothing listening to empty political speeches from opportunists who want to loot the country's coffers.
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Look like Uganda; Uhuru dying Jubilee party and their handshake partners using all state coercion; 2022 will be hard.
https://twitter.com/OleItumbi
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More chaos and arrests as Deep State uses the police to fight Hustler Nation. I wonder how they intend to pull such in a general election or a referendum.
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More chaos and arrests as Deep State uses the police to fight Hustler Nation. I wonder how they intend to pull such in a general election or a referendum.
It will be a sad ending for gatheca mlima has turned against him and you can see in social media guys threatening to liquidate him and they are Kikuyus because they are just totally disillusioned. Gatheca can't rig refrendum and kura he has to choose 1 and the one he chooses will still be monumental guy has no soft landing. When you hear kikuyus threatening him..........
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I can understand the anger at how Uhuru is mismanaging his transition and is setting kenya for big war in 2022 - and people who will suffer the most are kikuyus obviously - because once it starts - they will be at receiving end.
It will be a sad ending for gatheca mlima has turned against him and you can see in social media guys threatening to liquidate him and they are Kikuyus because they are just totally disillusioned. Gatheca can't rig refrendum and kura he has to choose 1 and the one he chooses will still be monumental guy has no soft landing. When you hear kikuyus threatening him..........
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I think for once in a very longtime Mt Kenyas are in the right side of history .Yes in 2022 there is a probability of a war if Uhuru does not change how he is managing the country and the politics being aided by Raila . The people in receiving end are very well known , however ICC will come knocking the door and this time around people will refuse to be used to shield the perpetuators .
With Khan at the helm of prosecutors office , he very well understands Kenyan politics .
I can understand the anger at how Uhuru is mismanaging his transition and is setting kenya for big war in 2022 - and people who will suffer the most are kikuyus obviously - because once it starts - they will be at receiving end.
It will be a sad ending for gatheca mlima has turned against him and you can see in social media guys threatening to liquidate him and they are Kikuyus because they are just totally disillusioned. Gatheca can't rig refrendum and kura he has to choose 1 and the one he chooses will still be monumental guy has no soft landing. When you hear kikuyus threatening him..........
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Malala and his goons
https://www.facebook.com/PIDONAS/videos/10223963857061025/
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Uda tallying centre https://uda.ke/results/all/?fbclid=IwAR0DZYPSQWrkOwEXjt767xe46hrGcaXehViynTcpYFnhZMpeHA-mCy2TTsQ
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Uda wins london ward with dying jubilee competing with moses kuria PEP.Dying jubilee pulled all stops including handshake partners withdrawal.
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Just because elitist do not take time to understand rural and slum economies does not mean these people should have no say in politics. It is democracy. Those young men are strong and healthy running around very jovial. Politics is their entertainment not their lives. Employment is not the end of life.
Reason those employed Trumpians were in the Capitol.
What a waste of time and resources politicking in Kenya is. Unemployed young men just milling about doing nothing listening to empty political speeches from opportunists who want to loot the country's coffers.
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And thats the former Jubilee zone . Still you will here ODMers saying Uhuru controls former Jubilee zones once he talks they will listen .
Uda wins london ward with dying jubilee competing with moses kuria PEP.Dying jubilee pulled all stops including handshake partners withdrawal.
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Matungu ni odm v anc..uda imelaba jini
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Lanya climbing https://uda.ke/results/all/?fbclid=IwAR0DZYPSQWrkOwEXjt767xe46hrGcaXehViynTcpYFnhZMpeHA-mCy2TTsQ
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Jubilee will cry with huruma which was not contested by uda out respect for chomba window
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Not looking that good Ruto..look like madvd and weta still a force in western..gusii still stuck with baba or Matiangi..and kikuyu split down the middle. 2022 may need plan C..where second round is inevitable..because the only way the rest can beat hustler nation is to splinter the vote...and then post round one coalition. For Ruto plan C would mean getting 40% of the national vote and getting 10% kinda of guy.That is different maths...Kiunjuri biggest causality today.If he brings 50% of kikuyu vote but bring the 2 tribe tag dilemma then a meru can do that so Prof Kindiki looks good..then second round is different ballgame.Ruto likely to end 1 followed by deep state candidate with Raila distance third especially if mijikenda dont play ball and gusii go with Matiangi deep state. The 2nd round Babu as third candidate will determine...but how will Babu handle fresh betrayal by deep state...because he will be betrayed..because he cannot sell in Gema..cannot be trusted by elite or laity
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:o that like Raila keeping off Bondo byelection. Silly move.
Jubilee will cry with huruma which was not contested by uda out respect for chomba window
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i see hustler rats have doubled down on koolaid since this cat left, :)
ODM made a tactical retreat this round - to deflate UDA momentum - which was easy to achieve coming from zero. Seems it's paying off as UDA get mere London.... after deploying half Tangatanga brigade there. Kihika, Murkomen, Genrali Nixon, Ngunjiri, name it. They loose hands down to paperweight Weta 8) 8) 8) - by sizeable margin. Matungu despite ANC-ODM Handshake split they still lose to Were.
Hell's Gate is gone to Jubilee lady.
Kisii?
Machaa i saw everyone fled from Ruto guy to Wiper.. thanks to toxic Muthama with Miguna or Ndii EQ. Not going well at all for UDA - momentum is a big deal for new party. Unless they get something they will have mere MCA from today. Vey bad optics.
Expect lots of whining about machinery tomorrow.
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Pundit & Noway - Ukambani after Kibwana bolted back to Handshake - what does Ruto have? Muthama looks like a big flop as influencer.
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So what does Jubilee win in Kikuyu-only Hell's Gate mean? At least London has some Kalenjin.
https://www.kbc.co.ke/jubilee-uda-win-hells-gate-and-london-ward-seats-respectively/
And thats the former Jubilee zone . Still you will here ODMers saying Uhuru controls former Jubilee zones once he talks they will listen .
Uda wins london ward with dying jubilee competing with moses kuria PEP.Dying jubilee pulled all stops including handshake partners withdrawal.
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Hell gate had Luo.. but why disappear then cowardly re emerge
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Not looking that good Ruto..look like madvd and weta still a force in western..gusii still stuck with baba or Matiangi..and kikuyu split down the middle. 2022 may need plan C..where second round is inevitable..because the only way the rest can beat hustler nation is to splinter the vote...and then post round one coalition. For Ruto plan C would mean getting 40% of the national vote and getting 10% kinda of guy.That is different maths...Kiunjuri biggest causality today.If he brings 50% of kikuyu vote but bring the 2 tribe tag dilemma then a meru can do that so Prof Kindiki looks good..then second round is different ballgame.Ruto likely to end 1 followed by deep state candidate with Raila distance third especially if mijikenda dont play ball and gusii go with Matiangi deep state. The 2nd round Babu as third candidate will determine...but how will Babu handle fresh betrayal by deep state...because he will be betrayed..because he cannot sell in Gema..cannot be trusted by elite or laity
Why did you expect him to perform better in Western? He just needs to find a way to roping some of these former Nasa chieftains. He should buy Weta and then go for Kingi at coast. This way he will put pressure on state to play defense. Raila has to maintain NASA coalition intact plus win over 15% of GEMA vote. By scattering NASA coalition ruto should be able to make 2022 competitive.
2022 is still open. The problem is Ruto trying to maintain a campaign for the rest of the term. He should chill and ignore some of these contests. They just expose him.
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Pitiful hindsight. BBI am still convinced won't happen till 2022 - Raila already once bitten twice shy from 2010. Ruto remains watermelon due to this.
The biggest casualty is Ruto and UDA, not useless MK who had nothing worth losing. Biggest winners are Mdvd & Weta.
Not looking that good Ruto..look like madvd and weta still a force in western..gusii still stuck with baba or Matiangi..and kikuyu split down the middle. 2022 may need plan C..where second round is inevitable..because the only way the rest can beat hustler nation is to splinter the vote...and then post round one coalition. For Ruto plan C would mean getting 40% of the national vote and getting 10% kinda of guy.That is different maths...Kiunjuri biggest causality today.If he brings 50% of kikuyu vote but bring the 2 tribe tag dilemma then a meru can do that so Prof Kindiki looks good..then second round is different ballgame.Ruto likely to end 1 followed by deep state candidate with Raila distance third especially if mijikenda dont play ball and gusii go with Matiangi deep state. The 2nd round Babu as third candidate will determine...but how will Babu handle fresh betrayal by deep state...because he will be betrayed..because he cannot sell in Gema..cannot be trusted by elite or laity
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Why did you expect him to perform better in Western? He just needs to find a way to roping some of these former Nasa chieftains. He should buy Weta and then go for Kingi at coast. This way he will put pressure on state to play defense. Raila has to maintain NASA coalition intact plus win over 15% of GEMA vote. By scattering NASA coalition ruto should be able to make 2022 competitive.
2022 is still open. The problem is Ruto trying to maintain a campaign for the rest of the term. He should chill and ignore some of these contests. They just expose him.
Ruto just flopped in Luhya, Gusii, Gema. And failed to get UDA momentum. Very bad optics. Machaa will further expose him.
BBI ace remains very potent weapon in Raila's grip. Expect Ruto to continue as watermelon after this defeat.
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i promised Noway I would disappear after Diani if Raila lost. It's Noway turn to zip it.
Hell gate had Luo.. but why disappear then cowardly re emerge
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Not looking that good Ruto..look like madvd and weta still a force in western..gusii still stuck with baba or Matiangi..and kikuyu split down the middle. 2022 may need plan C..where second round is inevitable..because the only way the rest can beat hustler nation is to splinter the vote...and then post round one coalition. For Ruto plan C would mean getting 40% of the national vote and getting 10% kinda of guy.That is different maths...Kiunjuri biggest causality today.If he brings 50% of kikuyu vote but bring the 2 tribe tag dilemma then a meru can do that so Prof Kindiki looks good..then second round is different ballgame.Ruto likely to end 1 followed by deep state candidate with Raila distance third especially if mijikenda dont play ball and gusii go with Matiangi deep state. The 2nd round Babu as third candidate will determine...but how will Babu handle fresh betrayal by deep state...because he will be betrayed..because he cannot sell in Gema..cannot be trusted by elite or laity
Actually it went very well for Ruto. It has showed that politics in luhyaland can't be counted on. I think am on record numerous times saying Ruto is wasting his energies and resources in mbalujaland no one believed me. Trust them at your own Peril including Kambas.
2022 appears now that will go to second round. Ruto getting 42% first round and baba getting below 20% other 3rd force will make around 33%
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I expected more respectable showing. It still better than 2013 Tawe when Jubilee were scoring nearly zero - in western. This is about 25% - which is not bad. If the handshake crew go tribal and divide the enclave then Ruto will need Plan C for round 2.As for Raila - and ODM - it now reduced to small party - basically it getting routed out of Luhyaland, coast, ukambani - and Gusii are just mark timing waiting for Matiangi.
Ruto has to work on Plan C - where he wins first round with 45% - Raila comes with 20% - and the handshake crew backed by Uhuru will get 35% - split into several parties.
Why did you expect him to perform better in Western? He just needs to find a way to roping some of these former Nasa chieftains. He should buy Weta and then go for Kingi at coast. This way he will put pressure on state to play defense. Raila has to maintain NASA coalition intact plus win over 15% of GEMA vote. By scattering NASA coalition ruto should be able to make 2022 competitive.
2022 is still open. The problem is Ruto trying to maintain a campaign for the rest of the term. He should chill and ignore some of these contests. They just expose him.
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https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-05-ruto-mps-make-u-turn-to-starve-jubilee-of-cash/
Tough-talking MPs allied to Deputy President William Ruto quietly rescinded their decision to stop their monthly contribution to Jubilee Party, the Star has established.
The move was triggered by fears that President Uhuru Kenyatta could move to crack the whip, expel the MPs and throw them into a difficult legal battle to save their seats, months to a General Election.
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They have coiled their tails as usual,too much noise for nothing.
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Some fights are not worthy - UDA guys are smart to choose their battles. ODM could have learn a lot but it's their sunset years.
They have coiled their tails as usual,too much noise for nothing.
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Nice showing by UDA, Congrats to ANC and Ford Kenya. They went for it all out and as they said their political life depended on it.
Now one thing with a By election , the matrix are different and it cant be used as barometer to measure political outcome of a general election.
1. By election voter turn out is usually low in most cases below 50%
2.The tactic which was successful in Malindi 2016 by elections and Kibra by elections of using violence to rig elections is now universally acceptable .
3.Its easier to fund by elections and bribe people to vote for you . Only Ruto and Raila have the money muscle to do that.
4.Based on available Data Most By elections is always won by the previous holding parties, relatives or individuals .
All said and done , Its very important to Keep Raila and his supporters hope, Wentagulas and Mudavadis tactic of attacting Raila showed they are their own people but its Railas supporters who are celebrating more than Wentagulas/Mudavadis. Fact Remains if Raila is not on the ballot in 2022 Ruto will have problems.
And for the first time since Mois era we have seen that Government Machinery is being used politically. The only way to deter this is Ruto should go straight away for the heads of the Civil/Public service , warn them that whatever the case they need to be neutral and if they try to side come 2022 they will be on their own. We should see more of court cases against Matiangis /Kibichos . He should collaborate more with activists and use the courts for expediency .
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Yes some tactics are good for by-elections - but come general election - these guys will not agree to field one candidate against UDA - they will each field and compete - and that is when UDA will win in those swing zones.
Violence and police intimidation cannot be scaled and applied in general election - so I won't worry about. I'd worry about establishing systems to monitor election, establishing nationwide election monitors, and agents.
Nice showing by UDA, Congrats to ANC and Ford Kenya. They went for it all out and as they said their political life depended on it.
Now one thing with a By election , the matrix are different and it cant be used as barometer to measure political outcome of a general election.
1. By election voter turn out is usually low in most cases below 50%
2.The tactic which was successful in Malindi 2016 by elections and Kibra by elections of using violence to rig elections is now universally acceptable .
3.Its easier to fund by elections and bribe people to vote for you . Only Ruto and Raila have the money muscle to do that.
4.Based on available Data Most By elections is always won by the previous holding parties, relatives or individuals .
All said and done , Its very important to Keep Raila and his supporters hope, Wentagulas and Mudavadis tactic of attacting Raila showed they are their own people but its Railas supporters who are celebrating more than Wentagulas/Mudavadis. Fact Remains if Raila is not on the ballot in 2022 Ruto will have problems.
And for the first time since Mois era we have seen that Government Machinery is being used politically. The only way to deter this is Ruto should go straight away for the heads of the Civil/Public service , warn them that whatever the case they need to be neutral and if they try to side come 2022 they will be on their own. We should see more of court cases against Matiangis /Kibichos . He should collaborate more with activists and use the courts for expediency .
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We do not even know whether UDA will survive to be around by the time of the general election. This kifua mmeanza nayo will dissipate soon enough.
Yes some tactics are good for by-elections - but come general election - these guys will not agree to field one candidate against UDA - they will each field and compete - and that is when UDA will win in those swing zones.
Violence and police intimidation cannot be scaled and applied in general election - so I won't worry about. I'd worry about establishing systems to monitor election, establishing nationwide election monitors, and agents.
Always shifting goal-posts, excuse after excuse and spin after spin.... watching you tie yourselves in knots.
May I remind you once again given that you need constant reminder! Mark especially the highlighted part. Western has spoken and it has just started, just the beginning….
Matungu will go either ODM or ANC. It is yet to get clear.... some boardroom negotiations are on-going and Were (ODM) may just let it be for ANC to allow for the handshake/BBI camaraderie... Were will come back and easily take it in the proper General Election in 2022.
Kabuchai will go to Ford K.... Weta will get a respite from Eseli- Wamunyinyi- Wangamati triumvirate for the sake of BBI. Kakai was potentially actually a strong candidate but his chosen party will let him down... plus he is being asked to go vie in Maragoli where apparently his father originated from.
Forget the Hustler nonsense.... this is where it will get clear to Ruto that he is selling snake oil in Luhya Land.
Soon enough when the floodgates of trouble open for Ruto, you will see an avalanche of rats running away from the burning house. Seems like the gameplan was so meticulous, almost precision to the dot. Yet it was not, things have just unfolded naturally and we find ourselves here. A bit of luck has lent a hand and we will take the lucky break anytime.
Take a chill pill... it is not the end of the world. That your boy is in these circumstances, ni mwiba ya kujidunga tu... he will soon enough throw in the towel.
Kenya, we match on!
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You have no game plan. You're busy trying to stop Ruto but have no idea how your own or the guy you support Raila will win. I'd worry more about your OWN GAMEPLAN to winning PORK. Ruto has his gameplan. He is not naive to imagine he can sweep western. At best he'd be happy with 30% of that..about the same for coast..and other swing zones.
Obviously Ruto want to sweep the board with Kamatus+Somali+related as a core; then really do well in Mt Kenya; then he would already be past 40% - just few notches from Jubilee 54%. This is where the extra hardwork comes in. Otherwise if he was stupid - he'd concentrate on easy stuff like Weta defending his own home constitutuency.
If your game plan is to stop Ruto at all cost - then you one and only one option - support another GEMA leader.
Otherwise continue hiding under Uhuru skirt until he unleashes his candidate (NOT RAILA). Then you'll run around in 2022 trying to campaign...:) and it will be too late. Like 2013 - where combined maDVD/Weta scored 4% nationally - and got I think 15 mps :) :)
We do not even know whether UDA will survive to be around by the time of the general election. This kifua mmeanza nayo will dissipate soon enough.
Yes some tactics are good for by-elections - but come general election - these guys will not agree to field one candidate against UDA - they will each field and compete - and that is when UDA will win in those swing zones.
Violence and police intimidation cannot be scaled and applied in general election - so I won't worry about. I'd worry about establishing systems to monitor election, establishing nationwide election monitors, and agents.
Always shifting goal-posts, excuse after excuse and spin after spin.... watching you tie yourselves in knots.
May I remind you once again given that you need constant reminder! Mark especially the highlighted part. Western has spoken and it has just started, just the beginning….
Matungu will go either ODM or ANC. It is yet to get clear.... some boardroom negotiations are on-going and Were (ODM) may just let it be for ANC to allow for the handshake/BBI camaraderie... Were will come back and easily take it in the proper General Election in 2022.
Kabuchai will go to Ford K.... Weta will get a respite from Eseli- Wamunyinyi- Wangamati triumvirate for the sake of BBI. Kakai was potentially actually a strong candidate but his chosen party will let him down... plus he is being asked to go vie in Maragoli where apparently his father originated from.
Forget the Hustler nonsense.... this is where it will get clear to Ruto that he is selling snake oil in Luhya Land.
Soon enough when the floodgates of trouble open for Ruto, you will see an avalanche of rats running away from the burning house. Seems like the gameplan was so meticulous, almost precision to the dot. Yet it was not, things have just unfolded naturally and we find ourselves here. A bit of luck has lent a hand and we will take the lucky break anytime.
Take a chill pill... it is not the end of the world. That your boy is in these circumstances, ni mwiba ya kujidunga tu... he will soon enough throw in the towel.
Kenya, we match on!
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Why should I resign , The goal is to capture presidency in 2022 elections. In regards to your disappearance, I actually missed you. 8) 8)
i promised Noway I would disappear after Diani if Raila lost. It's Noway turn to zip it.
Hell gate had Luo.. but why disappear then cowardly re emerge