Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on September 19, 2020, 02:06:25 AM
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He is no longer of use. He is making those BBI/handshake crew unpopular on the ground.
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I thought these Mt Kenya lot are already with Mobutu. Are you saying they are yet to pick a candidate?
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Seem it was convened by Moses Kuria and Kibicho.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001386884/leaders-hold-meet-to-plan-afresh-uhuru-succession
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https://www.facebook.com/900455006698876/posts/3358455464232139/?extid=HLsTtGuZMoEtPDwQ&d=n
Hon Moses Kuria 2h ago
In view of the passage of the 3rd generation formula for revenue sharing, yesterday we kicked off a series of meetings as MPs and leaders from Mt Kenya region to discuss the repositioning of our core counties with the additional resources that will ultimately come with the new formula. This was only the first of such meetings that will take place in the next few weeks. Undoubtedly other regions will do the same. It is an inalienable right of every region to meet and chart the best way forward to uplift the lives of their people. Yet, sadly, when Mt Kenya meets its followed by suspicion, misinformation, innuedo and propaganda. There was no politics- Absolutely None- at Thika Greens yesterday, let alone succession politics. Why the Daily Nation chose to run with Fake News as a Headline and even quote shadowy, expired characters who were not at the meeting is baffling. If such is their fodder let them continue reserving space because we will meet again and again for the benefit and welfare of our people of Mt Kenya Region- An integral part of the Great Kenyan Nation
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Seem strange for Kuria to praise Prince Uhuru leadership over 1M1S - instead of Ruto Team Kenya like Murconman. Kuria now wants IPPG to implement BBI 35%
Hon Moses Kuria 1d ago
I take this opportunity to express my delight over the passage of the 3rd Generation Formula for Revenue Sharing among counties. This is a victory for all Kenyans in that
1. By maintaining the weight of population at 18% and land mass at 8%, the formula comes as close ad possible to the One Man, One Vote, One Shilling AS A PRINCIPLE
2. By offering a transitional relief of Ksh 54 Billion CONDITIONAL GRANT, President Uhuru Kenyatta has made it possible to not only break the stalemate but also ensure that no county receives an allocation less than what they received in the Financial Year 2019/2020. Further the extra Ksh 54 Billion is not a Harambee donation to Counties- It is a conditional grant which will be ring fenced for health, water and roads and not left to the whims of Counties. Whereas the Formula as passed ensures fairness in PRINCIPLE, the Ksh 54 Billion ensures that the fairness works in PRACTICE. Thank you Mr President Sir!
3. With the passage of the One Man, One Vote, One Shilling today, the Ksh 370 Billion if taken against an expected Ordinary Revenue of Ksh 2.1 Trillion over the same period represents 17.6 % of Revenue which is just slightly above the Constitutional threshold of 15% . Now that the historical injustice in the formula has been cured, it is possible and even desirable to devolve even more funds to counties. There is talk within the BBI circles of 45% of Revenue but with our runaway debt obligation and spiraling national wage and recurrent expenditure I do not see this being feasible. But even if we settle for 30% that would mean Ksh 750 Billion going to our counties.
Moral of the story. Lets have an Interparty Parliamentary Group (IPPG) to look at the good side of BBI and create a national consensus the way Senate and President Uhuru Kenyatta have done with the formula. It is doable. No one is absolutely right and no one is absolutely wrong. This is a lesson that no single person will solve our problems. We have to sit and reason together as Kenyans. The triumphalism of No one can stop Reggae goes against this spirit of reasoning and working together. It has to stop. If we resorted to No one Can Stop Reggae in the Revenue Sharing Formula, nothing could be achieved
This is our country. Lets talk to each other not at each other
God Bless Kenya
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Robina kizungu mingi.They want to go for their own.Ruto has his gema ground game.That is why he never bothers with moses kuria..he has run around before..formed a party and then came running back.Kieleweke are trying to wriggle themselves from Raila otherwise the ground ni ngumu
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Kabando wa kabando calling for a truce https://www.the-star.co.ke/siasa/2020-09-19-brokers-urging-uhuru-on-post-2022-are-killers-of-democracy/
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Pundito,don't spin it to look like it's Raila loosing here,We know who has been salivating for the gema vote all along.It was just a matter of time before okuyus show their real colours.Basucally they are telling your Mobutu to forget their votes.thar their votes will go to PK.I have always been on point insisting that gema will neither vote Raila not your Mobutu.The biggest looser here is Mobutu.without gema votes,he is as good as tissue paper.Aa of Raila anything that divides kalenjin and kikuyu is to his advantage.With Pk,Raila,Mobutu,Mdvd,Kalonzo,mutua, all on ballot,Raila must be smiling.
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Raila of 2022 is not the Raila of 2007. This one is done kaput. He is now losing coast. He will come distant third or fourth in 2017. Ruto is the man to beat - even if he scored zero gema votes.
Pundito,don't spin it to look like it's Raila loosing here,We know who has been salivating for the gema vote all along.It was just a matter of time before okuyus show their real colours.Basucally they are telling your Mobutu to forget their votes.thar their votes will go to PK.I have always been on point insisting that gema will neither vote Raila not your Mobutu.The biggest looser here is Mobutu.without gema votes,he is as good as tissue paper.Aa of Raila anything that divides kalenjin and kikuyu is to his advantage.With Pk,Raila,Mobutu,Mdvd,Kalonzo,mutua, all on ballot,Raila must be smiling.
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Really,Raila is loosing coast,Raila is loosing western,this is the only line of defence left with you.Atleast you are now coming to terms that Kikuyus will after all be supporting one of their own.Raila should be the least of your worries,his cards are safe,game plan on course,divide jubilee kabisa,kikuyu north,kalenjin south.
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What game plan when he divided NASA into smithereens - and now his own ODM is splitting - after he run to GEMA - and abandon coast and non-gema. Just wait for coast to unveil their party - you'll be left with Joho alone.
Continue to bury your ODM head in the sand - that is how you lost Gusii, Bukusu, Kalenjin, Maasai, Somalis, Boranas, now Turkanas and Mijikendas...to Ruto and others.
Now Ruto is intelligent - he going for both gema and non-gema. He may miss a few in GEMA - but he has huge non-gema backing him. Infact the only place he is struggling on now is Gusii - where Matiangi the test-tube maybe a factor.
Within GEMA - Ruto has direct support - that Raila can only envy - and that your friends in PK camp - are trying to figure out how to slice it. Uhuru for last 3yrs ameshindwa. Sasa PK atawezena?
Jubilee you maybe suprised is very intact unlike NASA - Jubilee is very united outside a few in Mt kenya -because Mt Kenya ground has refused to board BBI/Handshake/Raila eventually Uhuru will come crying to negotiate with Ruto a safe exit - before the dynasties are kicked out.
Really,Raila is loosing coast,Raila is loosing western,this is the only line of defence left with you.Atleast you are now coming to terms that Kikuyus will after all be supporting one of their own.Raila should be the least of your worries,his cards are safe,game plan on course,divide jubilee kabisa,kikuyu north,kalenjin south.
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First I see the heading is "Its President or Nothing" , some of us who can read between the lines , it means a total opposition of BBI.
Going through the statements by Kuria , its eveident the seeds of discord against BBI have been planted , further by proposing IPPG this is a scheme of sideling the newly formed committes with memebers fully supporting the BBI from PSC to the Financial committe which are critical in ensuring a publiscte happens.
Another point to note is Mt Kenya politicians for the first time in history have found themselves in an unknown territory, more so for the elected leaders, previously they had a Kingpin , they had a party , read Ford Asili, DP etc now the elected leaders who have learnt from history coming back to parliament is not an easy fete are trying to measure where they can place their eggs , no matter what no matter where its not a guarantee that they will get nominated in the most popular party in the region now add to the fact just like in 2013 and 2002 this will be a regime changing elections , people will want to see new faces as MPS , MCA and Senators.
Now seeing Kibicho along with these MPs will tell you , people inside government know their time is up and a safe exit would be to wnter politics.
As it stands things with things on the ground in Mt Kenya Ruto is the man to beat come 2022.
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Really,Raila is loosing coast,Raila is loosing western,this is the only line of defence left with you.Atleast you are now coming to terms that Kikuyus will after all be supporting one of their own.Raila should be the least of your worries,his cards are safe,game plan on course,divide jubilee kabisa,kikuyu north,kalenjin south.
Apart from Mombasa(due to Luo diaspora factor) , Raila will lose the other 5 counties, Kilifi and Taita Taveta where people thought they could share evenly has actually shifted . Just last week Kilifi politicians would want to be seen with Raila thats how bad it is for Raila.
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So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.
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Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen. :)
Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.
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Maybe the title should read it's presidency or nothing. Honestly who is opposing a retiring Uhuru. He has less than 2yrs to go.
I think after 1M1S - basically appetite for BBI in them has died - this was something they wished they could sell as their BBI bargain.
I think the failure of Raila to secure 1M1S - has Uhuru and his Kibicho powers really worried - and Raila should be the most worried.
His bargaining chips are now very few. If he could not secure 1m1s - against Murkomen - 7 or 10 times - how can he secure other difficult things.
So Raila is kaput in power games - with Murathes ensared by COVID.
If Raila was smart he would have strike a rode when it's hot - and got himself something. When Ruto folks were being hounded in parliament - that was the time to demand a share of gov. He failed.
Now he is position where he support something - and gov has go through the motion 10 times - before compromising! - where Raila has basically lost support of many senators and their home-ground.
Now what is going to happen in mt kenya is simple. It's ground game. What will Mt Kenya people buy. If they insist on Ruto Liwe Liwalo. The elite will negotiate a safe exit - and support Ruto. No political elite want to face an angry populace and be send home.
Ruto in ODM face the same dillema - he wanted Kalonzo because he'd win in good unriggable margins against an incumbent (same 2005 white-wash of gov in the referendum) - but kalenjin were so angry and were in Raila LIWE LIWALO - so eventually Ruto had to run to their front and pretend to lead them into ODM.
From now till 2022 - the ground is everything - everyone in 2021 will be listening to their homegrounds - the local issues - and etc.
First I see the heading is "Its President or Nothing" , some of us who can read between the lines , it means a total opposition of BBI.
Going through the statements by Kuria , its eveident the seeds of discord against BBI have been planted , further by proposing IPPG this is a scheme of sideling the newly formed committes with memebers fully supporting the BBI from PSC to the Financial committe which are critical in ensuring a publiscte happens.
Another point to note is Mt Kenya politicians for the first time in history have found themselves in an unknown territory, more so for the elected leaders, previously they had a Kingpin , they had a party , read Ford Asili, DP etc now the elected leaders who have learnt from history coming back to parliament is not an easy fete are trying to measure where they can place their eggs , no matter what no matter where its not a guarantee that they will get nominated in the most popular party in the region now add to the fact just like in 2013 and 2002 this will be a regime changing elections , people will want to see new faces as MPS , MCA and Senators.
Now seeing Kibicho along with these MPs will tell you , people inside government know their time is up and a safe exit would be to wnter politics.
As it stands things with things on the ground in Mt Kenya Ruto is the man to beat come 2022.
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You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.
Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.
Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).
Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released - it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.
Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.
Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen. :)
Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.
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So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.
So tell me why do you think Kwale , Lamu, Tana River will vote for Raila, when in last election even with the hate of Uhuru ,Jubilee managed in some cases to beat Raila and some to even out .
Now for Kilifi and Taita I will explain to you , In Taita Taveta Uhurus perfomace was affected by his surname Kenyatta Family, His family and the park own vast amount of lands and Wadavi believe its theirs hence the reason Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 with an improvement in 2017. Actually Jubilee has MPs and MCAs there and suprisingly won Women Rep As for Ruto he has no baggage in Coast Province wait and see how it will end up.
Now for Kilifi its the same thing, they hate anything associated with Kenyattas , Jommo had appointrd a Coast PC in his time who terrorised the locals economically and socially , hence the reason in 2002 they opted for Kibaki the other Kikuyu against Uhuru the Kenyatta Kikuyu. Now coming to the biggest factor ,would i dare say Giriama because there are other tribes like Ribe,chonyi etc have historical ties with Kalenjin remember KADU?, for them its easier to unite with Kalenjin , thats the reason you see Ruto is most welcome there .Take this to the bank Kilifi in 2022 will go to Ruto.
As for Mombasa , with the Kisumu ndogos there , its a gone case thats a satellite Luo county, thats Tailas for Keep, even Odinga gave Moi a running in 1992, majority MPs with exception of KANUs Nassir and Chamgamwe s DP kiliku were Odingas Ford Kenya
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Coast people hate thieves and land grabbers
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Coast people hate thieves and land grabbers
Ehe true , in their region, so with Uhuru as part of the equation out. Dont you think this will make Raila and ODM worried ?
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The only hold out in ODM were Mijikenda - mostly the Giriamas. They are bolting as we speak. Otherwise Tana river/Lamu - those have nothing common with Kilifi/Kwale/Mombasa - Taita Taveta are always 50-50 - in everything they do. The battle for Mijikenda I think Raila has lost in the 1M1S - it was the last nail in the coffin.
So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.
So tell me why you think Kwale , Lamu, Tana River will vote for Raila, whem in last election even with the hate of Uhuru Jubilee managed in some cases to beat Raila and some to even out .
Now for Kilifi and Taita I will explain to you , In Taita Taveta Uhurus perfomace was affected by his surname Kenyatta Family, His family snd the park own vast amount of lands and Wadavi believe ots theirs hence the reason Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 with an improvement in 2017. Actially Jubilee has MPs and MCAs there and suprisingly won MCA there. As for Ruto he has no baggage there wait and see how it will emd up.
Now for Kilifi its the same thing, they hate anything associated with Kenyatta , Jommo had put a PC there in his time who terrorised the locals there economically and socially , hence the reason in 2002 they opted for Kibaki the other Kikuyu against Uhuru the Kenyatta Kikuyu. Now coming to the biggest factor ,would i dare say Giriama because there are other tribe like Ribe,chonyi etc have historical ties with Kalenjin remember KADU, for them its easier to unite Kalenjin , thats the reason you see Ruto is most welcome there .Take this to the bank Kilifi in 2022 will go to Ruto.
As for Mombasa , with the Kisumu ndogos there , its a gone case thats a satellite Luo county, thats Tailas for Keep, even Odinga gave Moi a running in 1992, majority MPs with exception of KANUs Nassir and Chamgamwe s DP kiliku were Odingas Ford Kenya
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That is what Raila exploited after inheriting coast from Moi's KANU. Ruto has been trying to reclaim it - but's its difficult when you don't sell anti-kikuyu/anti-gema/anti-wabara narrative.
So I think they will probably go on their own - and try negotiate a post election deal. They are out of Raila. If GEMA attack Ruto - they will back Ruto 100%.They abandoned KANU when Moi decided to betray the KADU base (anti-large tribes) go for Uhuru (a Kikuyu). It's akin to Uhuru turning 360 to say Raila tosha...he will die a lonely man like Moi.
Raila is done kaput there. Joho may even abandon him.
Ehe true , in their region, so with Uhuru as part of the equation out. Dont you think this will make Raila and ODM worried ?
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So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.
In Mijikenda Raila is finished cause MPs bailed - but in Central the same MPs don't affect Ruto cause he has the "ground" - which is a new yardstick only Pundit has the groundmeter. Yet the reality- Gema have never voted non-Gema - while Raila has bagged Mijikenda 3 rounds 80%+
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Ooh really,they have been bolting out since 2013 if we go by pundit,we are in 2020 and still waiting,meanwhile Mungaros,Shaabal,Chidzugas,Kazungus,Joyce lay, are lining up to return to Baba.
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Are Mps abandoning Ruto in GEMA because the ground is hostile or because they are being bribed, cajoled, threatened, intimidated. That is the big difference. What is happening in GEMA is the opposite of Mijikenda. Nobody is bribing or threatening Mijikenda to abandon Raila.
The next 1yr you'll see proper ground game of GEMA - as threats and bribery - will not sway anybody - because mwananchi is waiting - and last time they were so angry - they send like 80-90 of them home.
In Mijikenda Raila is finished cause MPs bailed - but in Central the same MPs don't affect Ruto cause he has the "ground" - which is a new yardstick only Pundit has the groundmeter. Yet the reality- Gema have never voted non-Gema - while Raila has bagged Mijikenda 3 rounds 80%+
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ODM in 2007 had 50% of parliament
ODM in 2013 had dropped to 30%
ODM in 2017 has 62 mps - 20% - consisting of 30 mps from Luo Nyanza and 20 mps from coast - and 10 elsewhere.
ODM in 2022 will have 30 mps - 10% of parliament -almost exclusively from Luo nation.
And that is what I do -predict.
Ooh really,they have been bolting out since 2013 if we go by pundit,we are in 2020 and still waiting,meanwhile Mungaros,Shaabal,Chidzugas,Kazungus,Joyce lay, are lining up to return to Baba.
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So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.
In Mijikenda Raila is finished cause MPs bailed - but in Central the same MPs don't affect Ruto cause he has the "ground" - which is a new yardstick only Pundit has the groundmeter. Yet the reality- Gema have never voted non-Gema - while Raila has bagged Mijikenda 3 rounds 80%+
Nope all Kilifis politicians bagged out , elected and aspiring.
Raila in 2007 bagged Rift Valley and North Eastern but that didnt necessarily translate to outcome of 2013 with the same elected politicians of 2007 remember the sally and Henry Kosgeis Bett ,Sirmas etc, grounds shift and thats why you need to shift focus from elected officials to the energy on ground.
In 2022 elections will be between Non Gemas Kingpins just like in 2002 when it was between 2 Gema politicians , the dyanamics will be different .
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Well says Dr Pundit the intellectually finished product.
Hustler vs dynasty has big cons - it alienate Mdvds ab initio - to replace with Washiali. Ruto wheelbarrow and tank handouts can be outdone easy with GoK stimulus of local jua kali desk budget I saw Uhuru unveiling in Eastlands. You cannot kill tribe - Kikuyu or Kamba will never be Kalenjin - but class is dicy.
That Ruto has Gema or Bukusu or whatever ground.... we will see soon - starting with Msambweni. ODM vs Hustler is next showdown in few months. Oops what's Ruto party again :) Will he spring a Mariga or back Jumwa briefcase ala Ganda?
You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.
Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.
Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).
Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released - it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.
Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.
Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen. :)
Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.
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That is dynamic of politics they fail to observe. Raila threw 18 counties under the bridge while running to GEMA. He failed to get GEMA. Now he is no mans land - well he has Luos. GEMA knows he is over and done - cannot get you anything. Non-GEMA see his continued betrayal.
Nope all Kilifis politicians bagged out , elected and aspiring.
Raila in 2007 bagged Rift Valley and North Eastern but that didnt necessarily translate to outcome of 2013 with the same elected politicians of 2007 remember the sally and Henry Kosgeis Bett ,Sirmas etc, grounds shift and thats why you need to shift focus from elected officials to the energy on ground.
In 2022 elections will be between Non Gemas Kingpins just like in 2002 when it was between 2 Gema politicians , the dyanamics will be different .
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Ruto doesn't need maDVD - that much. He is 4% center. He is frying bigger fish. MaDVD will not get Ruto DPORK.
Yes I think coast is ripe for some politics - and Msabweni will be good indicator.
And hope we won't see desperate ODM violence like in Kibra.
Well says Dr Pundit the intellectually finished product.
Hustler vs dynasty has big cons - it alienate Mdvds ab initio - to replace with Washiali. Ruto wheelbarrow and tank handouts can be outdone easy with GoK stimulus of local jua kali desk budget I saw Uhuru unveiling in Eastlands. You cannot kill tribe - Kikuyu or Kamba will never be Kalenjin - but class is dicy.
That Ruto has Gema or Bukusu or whatever ground.... we will see soon - starting with Msambweni. ODM vs Hustler is next showdown in few months. Oops what's Ruto party again :) Will he spring a Mariga or back Jumwa briefcase ala Ganda?
You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.
Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.
Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).
Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released - it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.
Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.
Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen. :)
Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.
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BBI will not happen - it empty promises of NARC. I mean Hustler Nation is a rallying cry as well obviously. Let see Msambweni in Kwale - who has better chance in Mijikenda. Of course you cannot protest ODM violence - yet condone Ruto bribery - both are cheating plain and simple. Keep it clean or get messy.
Ruto doesn't need maDVD - that much. He is 4% center. He is frying bigger fish. MaDVD will not get Ruto DPORK.
Yes I think coast is ripe for some politics - and Msabweni will be good indicator.
And hope we won't see desperate ODM violence like in Kibra.
Well says Dr Pundit the intellectually finished product.
Hustler vs dynasty has big cons - it alienate Mdvds ab initio - to replace with Washiali. Ruto wheelbarrow and tank handouts can be outdone easy with GoK stimulus of local jua kali desk budget I saw Uhuru unveiling in Eastlands. You cannot kill tribe - Kikuyu or Kamba will never be Kalenjin - but class is dicy.
That Ruto has Gema or Bukusu or whatever ground.... we will see soon - starting with Msambweni. ODM vs Hustler is next showdown in few months. Oops what's Ruto party again :) Will he spring a Mariga or back Jumwa briefcase ala Ganda?
You're clinically mad. More like Kichwa Mbaya. You imagine that everyone is preparing the road of the 2nd coming of Messiah Odinga. That people are pulling all the stops - so they can come and sit on the table - with now glorified Luo King - and negotiate - not even for positions that are on the table - but those that King Odinga will create after he wins in BBI 4.0.
Please check yourself in the nearest mental hospital.
Ruto right now is incredibly popular - it appears the more Uhuru attacks him - the more popular he is on the ground - he is getting a lot of sympathy and is now seen as the change guy - the guy to bring new hope for hustlers (poor masses).
Raila is seen as spent force - he had good momentum in those BBI rallies - where he is promising nothing but everything to everyone - but surely eventually the document is released - it will be back to formulae kind of debate - so it's not good strategy. You cannot reconcile the gema and non-gema issues - it's just re-opening wounds. Maasai want this. Gema want opposite. Coast want that.
Ruto strategy is working - and is sustainable. The man is not sleeping. They kicked him out of gov - he has turned his Karen office into 2nd statehouse where people go to pray and pay homage to him.
Pajero - RV insists Gema and Luo are oil & water. What I see here is Gema anointing PK before partnering into coalitions. I agree with you the person who was meant to have these Kurias in the bag is Mobutu - but 1M1S and other problems have unveiled the wolf. I am watching Sudi release on bail in Nakuru yesterday and the usual loudmouths are really timid and disciplined. Not a single shot from Kimani Ngunjiri or Murkomen. :)
Anyway people are posturing or positioning now for coalition. Not every Matiang'i will make final round - it's why I see Raila BBI as a better strategy than Hustler Nation. People want positions - they are not all delusional like Aukot - they need winning formula and a stake in it. Kaloozer is happy to retire as Senior CS - he just needs to save face - which PM carrot nails.
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I doubt if jubilee will field a candidate in msambweni,maybe Mobutu will support an independent candidate or sponsor his jubilee Nandi Asili candidate
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Robina and Pajero, its naive to think Ruto wont sponsor a candidate in Msambweni when he has Mvurya and Mwashetani hailing from same county.
Uhuru should come and campaign for ODM candidate and you will see the results
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Robina and Pajero, its naive to think Ruto wont sponsor a candidate in Msambweni when he has Mvurya and Mwashetani hailing from same county.
Uhuru should come and campaign for ODM candidate and you will see the results
Uhuru utility to Raila start and end with Gema and machinery. Raila is tried & tested non-GEMA veteran - Ruto needs a party first otherwise wishy-washy Mvurya is not guaranteed to back him. Getting local briefcase to beat ODM entrenched network, then coalesce entire strip, survive Joho-Kingi-Mvurya-Jumwa dick contest - then hopefully back Ruto - sio mchezo. That a taller mountain to climb than Raila in Gema - at least Uhuru has live live cut Ruto to size and erected hurdles all over - but you don't know for sure what Mvurya or Kingi is planning. At least Raila has Joho, Samboja, et al still tagging along.
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How many MPs are in Jubilee Asili? NASA parties are intact - and none leans towards Ruto - yet he has been all but kicked out of Jubilee.
ODM in 2007 had 50% of parliament
ODM in 2013 had dropped to 30%
ODM in 2017 has 62 mps - 20% - consisting of 30 mps from Luo Nyanza and 20 mps from coast - and 10 elsewhere.
ODM in 2022 will have 30 mps - 10% of parliament -almost exclusively from Luo nation.
And that is what I do -predict.
Ooh really,they have been bolting out since 2013 if we go by pundit,we are in 2020 and still waiting,meanwhile Mungaros,Shaabal,Chidzugas,Kazungus,Joyce lay, are lining up to return to Baba.
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Actually the opposite is true. Jubilee is intact with Ruto. NASA has splintered into their parties - with some joining Ruto. Jubilee of Murathe has a few Kieweleke Mps - on their own - they are nothing. Ruto just didn't want to engage Uhuru in a fight - and that was tactical retreat. All those that they intimidated or bribed - have come back to Ruto. And next year those lying low not to be bankrupted or jailed - will come out. Include those in senior gov positions.
Otherwise Jubilee as party - membership and leadership - back Ruto. There is no competitor. Uhuru is going home. Maybe Tuju can take the certificate home - but Jubilee - the real one - asili - remain committed to Ruto.
Just watch as the lameduck becomes irrelevant and as everyone tries to win Ruto favour.
How many MPs are in Jubilee Asili? NASA parties are intact - and none leans towards Ruto - yet he has been all but kicked out of Jubilee.
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"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time. Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters. Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory. Not too long ago he was a powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason. He is going down very fast.
So being seen with somebody nowadays has become a measure of popularity,come on,don't expose your ignorance.Anyway just stick to your lane.
So tell me why do you think Kwale , Lamu, Tana River will vote for Raila, when in last election even with the hate of Uhuru ,Jubilee managed in some cases to beat Raila and some to even out .
Now for Kilifi and Taita I will explain to you , In Taita Taveta Uhurus perfomace was affected by his surname Kenyatta Family, His family and the park own vast amount of lands and Wadavi believe its theirs hence the reason Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 with an improvement in 2017. Actually Jubilee has MPs and MCAs there and suprisingly won Women Rep As for Ruto he has no baggage in Coast Province wait and see how it will end up.
Now for Kilifi its the same thing, they hate anything associated with Kenyattas , Jommo had appointrd a Coast PC in his time who terrorised the locals economically and socially , hence the reason in 2002 they opted for Kibaki the other Kikuyu against Uhuru the Kenyatta Kikuyu. Now coming to the biggest factor ,would i dare say Giriama because there are other tribes like Ribe,chonyi etc have historical ties with Kalenjin remember KADU?, for them its easier to unite with Kalenjin , thats the reason you see Ruto is most welcome there .Take this to the bank Kilifi in 2022 will go to Ruto.
As for Mombasa , with the Kisumu ndogos there , its a gone case thats a satellite Luo county, thats Tailas for Keep, even Odinga gave Moi a running in 1992, majority MPs with exception of KANUs Nassir and Chamgamwe s DP kiliku were Odingas Ford Kenya
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Hope spring eternal. In fact hustler vs dynasty further cement Uhurutopia tomb - there is no Jesus resurrection of the Jubilee carcass. You still hope one afternoon Uhuru will call Jubilee NGC and everyone endorse Ruto - akin to the Last Supper :D - in meantime all the mayhem is to fool Raila.
Actually the opposite is true. Jubilee is intact with Ruto. NASA has splintered into their parties - with some joining Ruto. Jubilee of Murathe has a few Kieweleke Mps - on their own - they are nothing. Ruto just didn't want to engage Uhuru in a fight - and that was tactical retreat. All those that they intimidated or bribed - have come back to Ruto. And next year those lying low not to be bankrupted or jailed - will come out. Include those in senior gov positions.
Otherwise Jubilee as party - membership and leadership - back Ruto. There is no competitor. Uhuru is going home. Maybe Tuju can take the certificate home - but Jubilee - the real one - asili - remain committed to Ruto.
Just watch as the lameduck becomes irrelevant and as everyone tries to win Ruto favour.
How many MPs are in Jubilee Asili? NASA parties are intact - and none leans towards Ruto - yet he has been all but kicked out of Jubilee.
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Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time. Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters. Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory. Not too long ago he was a powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason. He is going down very fast.
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It's uhuru orphans who will soon be desperate - as they face an angry votes in their region -and will be running to Ruto to cut some deal.
When you will you ever realize that Uhuru is going home - he is slow punctured politicians - and you're hitching a ride onto statehouse - on a vehicles - that WITHOUT ANY DOUBT - will deflate - and stall. I mean have you read constitution yet on term limits.
Hope spring eternal. In fact hustler vs dynasty further cement Uhurutopia tomb - there is no Jesus resurrection of the Jubilee carcass. You still hope one afternoon Uhuru will call Jubilee NGC and everyone endorse Ruto - akin to the Last Supper :D - in meantime all the mayhem is to fool Raila.
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Manyora is dim-witted.
As dim-witted as Raila or any politician who is bettin on Uhuru.
When you guys realize that Uhuru is going back to Ichweri to enjoy his loot - and is not interested in politics - it will be too late.
Ruto would already have been sworn for another 10yrs.
Uhuru by mid-next year - nobody will care what he say or does.
Even right now - cabinet are already preparing their CVs - seeing where next they will land
We are in transition. If Ruto was fighting Uhuru going for re-election - some of these stupid theories would be right.
Ruto would be facing gov machinery.
But Ruto is not facing Uhuru. He has no opponent. All of them too scared to come forward.
They are waiting for Uhuru to transfer power to them :) - some are even calling for military take over - Kichwa is even calling Uhuru to just continue :)
Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time. Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters. Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory. Not too long ago he was a powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason. He is going down very fast.
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Pundito my broda, I see you are still hanging on tough for Ruto even when he is going down like a rock. Just imagine where Ruto was not too long a go and look at where he is right now. The trajectory is clearly downhill and yet you are asking us to believe you and not our lying eyes. I am starting to think that WSR may not even run for the presidency in 2022 after Ouru is finished with him. When WSR sent his air-head surrogates like Ngeno and Sudi to abuse Mama Ngina, something in Ouru turned. Ruto can now forget the presidency so long as Ouru holds the instrument's of power. He was already doing everything under his power to stop Ruto's dreams for the president, now I think he is doing "everything else plus). WSR is cooked as far as the presidency is concerned.
Manyora is dim-witted.
As dim-witted as Raila or any politician who is bettin on Uhuru.
When you guys realize that Uhuru is going back to Ichweri to enjoy his loot - and is not interested in politics - it will be too late.
Ruto would already have been sworn for another 10yrs.
Uhuru by mid-next year - nobody will care what he say or does.
Even right now - cabinet are already preparing their CVs - seeing where next they will land
We are in transition. If Ruto was fighting Uhuru going for re-election - some of these stupid theories would be right.
Ruto would be facing gov machinery.
But Ruto is not facing Uhuru. He has no opponent. All of them too scared to come forward.
They are waiting for Uhuru to transfer power to them :) - some are even calling for military take over - Kichwa is even calling Uhuru to just continue :)
Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time. Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters. Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory. Not too long ago he was a powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason. He is going down very fast.
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Uhuru is not that powerful. And he is going home. He is using you to loot and pad his retirement package.
He doesn't want to share the loot with Ruto - and that is all their is on their fight.
And What make you think Uhuru has all the instruments of Power :)
What exactly is that? Why is Ngeno and Sudis out there freeeeeeee - because Kenya is a mature democracy!
All Uhuru can do is huff and puff - but he doesn't control any arm of gov - not evene exeuctive (completely).
kenya is NOt a monarchy.
Uhuru can only destroy Ruto in GEMA - the rest of the country has little respect for him and his directions.
Now within GEMA - he may only still has some support in mostly Kikuyu areas
And within those areas - that support is fizzling out.
If you read the article in first post - It's about Harambee house elite like Kibicho - getting jittery and trying to launch their post-Uhuru candidate.
Only a fool think Uhuru is our King who will appoint the gov he wishes to suceed him.
As powerful as Moi was - he failed.
Kibaki orphans attempted something stupid called UDF and maDVD their candidate was DOA.
Next two years - prepare to be on your own - ODM.
Kikuyu elite cannot take Raila to GEMA and risk eroding the little support they have.
They seem to want to use 1M1S to try chart a new path - and try re-connect to the wananchi.
If they stick to the message (1M1S) - they may be able to undo some of Ruto grassroot support in GEMA - but the moment they say BBI or Handshake or Raila.All those votes evaporate to thin air - and DR Ruto sleepwalks to PORK - with or without Kikuyu elite.
Bottomline; For Uhuru to become powerful again (meaning to regain GEMA) he MUST ditch Raila :) :) as a start.
That should take him to ground zero. Then if he endorse Ruto - he goes back. If he endorses someone else - he has a lot of explaining to do.
If he doesn't care like he has shown - he will quietly retire like Kibaki did - and leave kenyans to decide.
Pundito my broda, I see you are still hanging on tough for Ruto even when he is going down like a rock. Just imagine where Ruto was not too long a go and look at where he is right now. The trajectory is clearly downhill and yet you are asking us to believe you and not our lying eyes. I am starting to think that WSR may not even run for the presidency in 2022 after Ouru is finished with him. When WSR sent his air-head surrogates like Ngeno and Sudi to abuse Mama Ngina, something in Ouru turned. Ruto can now forget the presidency so long as Ouru holds the instrument's of power. He was already doing everything under his power to stop Ruto's dreams for the president, now I think he is doing "everything else plus). WSR is cooked as far as the presidency is concerned.
Manyora is dim-witted.
As dim-witted as Raila or any politician who is bettin on Uhuru.
When you guys realize that Uhuru is going back to Ichweri to enjoy his loot - and is not interested in politics - it will be too late.
Ruto would already have been sworn for another 10yrs.
Uhuru by mid-next year - nobody will care what he say or does.
Even right now - cabinet are already preparing their CVs - seeing where next they will land
We are in transition. If Ruto was fighting Uhuru going for re-election - some of these stupid theories would be right.
Ruto would be facing gov machinery.
But Ruto is not facing Uhuru. He has no opponent. All of them too scared to come forward.
They are waiting for Uhuru to transfer power to them :) - some are even calling for military take over - Kichwa is even calling Uhuru to just continue :)
Ruto and his chihuahuas got a dog beating in Kibra. Then they were chased like kids out of Jubilee and parliament. Now they are puffing their chests and daring UhuRao for the next bout. I know faith can move mountains but this is Kinjeketile bare-breast holy-water madness.
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." Voters of Kenya are like costumes, you only need them during the show and not during rehearsal. Its too early to even worry about who is going to vote for who at this time. Voters are usually the last piece to be put in place in Kenyan politics. Kenyan voters can be mobilized to swing to one side or the other in a matter of literal days. 2022 is still too far to even worry about voters. Ruto has lost a lot of ground in a very short time and may not be around much longer given the downward trajectory. Not too long ago he was a powerful DP, and now he is wondering in the wilderness hanging out with cults who need his money badly for whatever reason. He is going down very fast.
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Where is kiunjuri (purported Mobutu running mate) in all this matrix,he is missing in action.
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Pundit can draw that false comparison with Moi or Kibaki - who were senile in different circumstances. Moi did not mind Kibaki - their beef was Raila who was reformer. Kalenjin still voted Uhuru 70%. Kibaki wanted to impose Mdvd not only on Gema but entire country- against Prince Uhuru - still he did not really mind Uhuru but Raila. UDF was based on belief that Kenya was done with Gema PORK. Now today - Uhuru is not senile and is not imposing anyone. Ruto and Raila are both aliens - he merely smashed Kiunjuri, Waititu, Gachaguas and anyone pro-Ruto - as he props PK. He has pushed BBI, edged Ruto to GoK-Jubilee periphery, persecuted Cherargeis, Sudi inciters - orchestrated 1M1S. Now Gema MPs are meeting to decide direction - lead by Moses Kuria and Kibicho 8) - you think they are meeting to endorse Ruto? They will endorse their own - to negotiate with non-Gema. We already know who Uhuru clique prefer even in the 11th hour looting and AOBs. Ruto is so deeply loathed and untrusted by this lot it astounding - after all the hardwork and promises - they will rather hand over to Raila by a mile.
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Kiunjuri has gone underground and is doing damage as always from radio station. His party TPS will negotiate with Jubilee Asili to form TNA-URP like coalition. Kiunjuri will be appointed DPORK of course.
On the GEMA elite front - we are hearing Kagwe/ Matiangi combination from Harambee house - and Peter Keneth from Muranga.
Both are dead on arrival - but Kagwe/Matiangi could at least fly because Gusii could buy into it.
As for PK - that one will die in Muranga.
Where is kiunjuri (purported Mobutu running mate) in all this matrix,he is missing in action.
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You're nearly getting it.
The idea from Uhuru orphans (again forget about Uhuru) like Kibichos is to front a candidate to negotiate for them post-Uhuru.
Now assume they manage to unite - and get us one united candidate - improbable in my view because all of them are 'nobodies'.
That candidate will come to the table - and decide - pre-election or post-election.
Now if they meet Ruto or Raila - they can only negotiate for DPORK.
If they meet Kalonzo or Matiangis or Wamalwas - they may give them DPORK - and run for PORK.
Now when it comes to Raila and Ruto - who is loathed by GEMA ground and distrustred by elite more - RAILA AMOLO ODINGA.
That is why despite Uhuru trying all that - and spending all the money - as long as Raila shadow hovers around him - he is DOA - and Ruto remain strong.
For a generation - Anti-Raila narrative has been woven - most GEMA think Raila is a devil child.
Ruto already paid his penancnes and is accepted by GEMA elite and ground - so he is an easy sell.
In short - Raila will never be PORK :) - hei is loathed by Jubilee base of GEMA-Kalenjin that scored 50%.
Ruto will negotiate with either GEMA breakway (Kiunjuri group) or united GEMA (Kibicho test-tube if they pull all stops and unite behind some candidate).
It's really their choice.
Ruto is ready with 50-50 deal btw GEMA and NON-GEMA to continue Jubilee dream.
In meantime Ruto has the rest of Jubilee and is busy cannibalizing ODM in kamtusa, mijikenda, luhya, gusii and name it.
Pundit can draw that false comparison with Moi or Kibaki - who were senile in different circumstances. Moi did not mind Kibaki - their beef was Raila who was reformer. Kalenjin still voted Uhuru 70%. Kibaki wanted to impose Mdvd not only on Gema but entire country- against Prince Uhuru - still he did not really mind Uhuru but Raila. UDF was based on belief that Kenya was done with Gema PORK. Now today - Uhuru is not senile and is not imposing anyone. Ruto and Raila are both aliens - he merely smashed Kiunjuri, Waititu, Gachaguas and anyone pro-Ruto - as he props PK. He has pushed BBI, edged Ruto to GoK-Jubilee periphery, persecuted Cherargeis, Sudi inciters - orchestrated 1M1S. Now Gema MPs are meeting to decide direction - lead by Moses Kuria and Kibicho 8) - you think they are meeting to endorse Ruto? They will endorse their own - to negotiate with non-Gema. We already know who Uhuru clique prefer even in the 11th hour looting and AOBs. Ruto is so deeply loathed and untrusted by this lot it astounding - after all the hardwork and promises - they will rather hand over to Raila by a mile.
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Honestly,you still believe Mobutu has jubilee,you need to have your head recalibrated
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Honestly,you still believe Mobutu has jubilee,you need to have your head recalibrated
Pundit means Mobutu has the Jubilee "laity" - hoi polloi - while Uhuru only has the certificate and offices. One weekend they will rebrand one of the reserved parties at Bomas - and all & sundry will board safina. It a perfect script full of intelligent precautions- why could anything possibly go wrong? Because Mobutu has ground - a new animal complete with a groundmeter - another mythical beast like the legacy they are more concerned with than Uhuru himself. For 2 years they threatened MAD - which never came as all redlines shifted. Uhuru was a system and Kibicho and Jezebel were responsible for all the mischief. That Uhuru would just sign MOU - hand over the sword to Ruto - and wait for 50%. Haha - if that not delusion then it true 98% idiots are right here.
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Jubilee is a national party - there are few kieweleke from mostly central province that got intimidated or bribed by Harambee house - but are facing hostile winds from the ground.
Otherwise Jubilee is intact.
Gema have to make a decision.
1) Go it alone - Pajero option - post-election coalition
2) Make a pre-election coalition with either Raila or Ruto
3) They pick a stooge like Matiangi or Madvd - and back - this UDF - Prof Wanjohi brainless idea from JKUAT :)
4) Most likely to happen - GEMA splinters into many camps without a clear leader - as everyone tries their own ideas.
Let examine
1) Pajero Option:
If they go it alone - they have to find a credible leader who can sell beyond GEMA - they have NONE. Kibaki has run previously as GEMA only candidate. He scored 33% in 1997. He run in 2007 as mostly GEMA but got lots of votes in Bukusu, Ukambani, Gusii, Somali and even coast. And all that came to 43% with lots of rigging.
Now that was a credible Kibaki. Who in GEMA right now can even unite GEMA votes. NOBODY. They are all dwarfs. The Kikuyu supremacist were hoping Uhuru will continue somehow but now they will stuck.
Now the best case scenario for Pajero option. They play for 2nd round. They hope their candidate become no 2 and Raila backs them in 2nd round contest against Ruto.
United GEMA candidate will score about 25% - but with Ruto running - with DPORK from GEMA like Kiunjuri - that becomes less than 20% - so they compete with Raila for No 2.
Pretty dicey. Btw upstart GEMA and Raila - I think Raila will become no 3 or 4.
2) They choose btw Raila and Ruto - and enter a pre-election.
It's no brainer. They will pick Ruto. They fear Raila the most. Raila has the biggest axe to grind with them. With Ruto - things are still pretty much okay. They can just say sorry - it was a misunderstanding - and Jubilee will be intact that afernoon.
4) They choose Matiangi or MaDVD or Kalonzo.
They figure out they don't want either Raila or Ruto - and go for a new person.
They try to shore 25% to make it 35% - well this could get them 2nd round contest.
And then they hope Raila will back them in 2nd round.
Assumption: Ruto will be the guy to beat and is the front runner - as shown by all opinion polls and common sense so far.
Now after Raila is dumped by GEMA - he becomes DEAD AS DODOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. He is now selling snake oil that Uhuru has agreed to back him in BBI and handshake.
Once it clear - there is no such deal - he will not even get all the Luo votes.
It will be a desperate run ending with 7-10%.
Pundit means Mobutu has the Jubilee "laity" - hoi polloi - while Uhuru only has the certificate and offices. One weekend they will rebrand one of the reserved parties at Bomas - and all & sundry will board safina. Because Mobutu has ground - a new animal complete with a groundmeter - another mythical beast like the legacy they are more concerned with than Uhuru himself. For 2 years they threatened MAD - which never came as all redlines shifted. Uhuru was a system and Kibicho and Jezebel were responsible for all the mischief. That Uhuru would just sign MOU - hand over the sword to Ruto - and wait for 50%. Haha - if that not delusion then it true 98% idiots are right here.
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Who has Jubilee? Raila? or Uhuru
Honestly,you still believe Mobutu has jubilee,you need to have your head recalibrated
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When are Jubilee elections - let alone the primaries?
Jubilee is a national party - there are few kieweleke from mostly central province that got intimidated or bribed by Harambee house - but are facing hostile crowd.
Otherwise Jubilee is intact.
Gema have to make a decision.
1) Go it alone - Pajero option - post-election coalition
2) Make a pre-election coalition with either Raila or Ruto
3) They pick a stooge like Matiangi or Madvd - and back - this UDF - Prof Wanjohi brainless idea from JKUAT :)
Let examine
1) Pajero Option:
If they go it alone - they have to find a credible leader who can sell beyond GEMA - they have NONE. Kibaki has run previously as GEMA only candidate. He scored 33% in 1997. He run in 2007 as mostly GEMA but got lots of votes in Bukusu, Ukambani, Gusii, Somali and even coast. And all that came to 43% with lots of rigging.
Now that was a credible Kibaki. Who in GEMA right now can even unite GEMA votes. NOBODY. They are all dwarfs. The Kikuyu supremacist were hoping Uhuru will continue somehow but now they will stuck.
Now the best case scenario for Pajero option. They play for 2nd round. They hope their candidate become no 2 and Raila backs them in 2nd round contest against Ruto.
United GEMA candidate will score about 25% - but with Ruto running - with DPORK from GEMA like Kiunjuri - that becomes less than 20% - so they compete with Raila for No 2.
Pretty dicey.
2) They choose btw Raila and Ruto - and enter a pre-election.
It's no brainer. They will pick Ruto. They fear Raila the most. Raila has the biggest axe to grind with them. With Ruto - things are still pretty much okay. They can just say sorry - it was a misunderstanding - and Jubilee will be intact that afernoon.
4) They choose Matiangi or MaDVD or Kalonzo.
They figure out they don't want either Raila or Ruto - and go for a new person.
They try to shore 25% to make it 35% - well this could get them 2nd round contest.
And then they hope Raila will back them in 2nd round.
Assumption: Ruto will be the guy to beat and is the front runner - as shown by all opinion polls and common sense so far.
Pundit means Mobutu has the Jubilee "laity" - hoi polloi - while Uhuru only has the certificate and offices. One weekend they will rebrand one of the reserved parties at Bomas - and all & sundry will board safina. Because Mobutu has ground - a new animal complete with a groundmeter - another mythical beast like the legacy they are more concerned with than Uhuru himself. For 2 years they threatened MAD - which never came as all redlines shifted. Uhuru was a system and Kibicho and Jezebel were responsible for all the mischief. That Uhuru would just sign MOU - hand over the sword to Ruto - and wait for 50%. Haha - if that not delusion then it true 98% idiots are right here.
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Jubilee elections were only relevant for lower ranks otherwise there has never been a question on who next leader is. Nobody is contesting against Ruto for top seat.
As of now - unless GEMA elite save Jubilee - it's dead.
Ruto will form his own party - and merge with Kiunjuri - and others - to create another Jubilee Asili - Hustlers Nation or something like that.
Ultimately Hustler Nation is going to be the slogan - it resonating and has potential to unite the poor against the rich.
When are Jubilee elections - let alone the primaries?
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That option 2 pre-election deal is loading. GEMA are not stupid as you imagine to go for losing option. They are already meeting to formalize Uhuru choice PK who will deal with Raila. Ruto is the worse option - it start from weak point of PEV threats - you reward such with absolute No to mark the redline. You fail to resolve this logic by claiming Uhuru is a system or bewitched - ohoo he wants to loot in peace - instead of asking yourself why he has leaned to old Kenyatta nemesis Odinga.
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Raila-PK :) that is the most improbable but personally if GEMA can get over their fear of Raila - well we should elect the old dude. I think you understimate the fear and loathing of Raila in GEMA. Your make me question your sanity.
Raila is still waiting to be taken to central - 3yrs from handshake. The man is anathema in GEMA. In fact the only reason Uhuru has not TKOed Ruto from GEMA is the overbearing shadow of Raila...otherwise it's not for the lack of trying...bribes, intimidation, cajoling, insults..name it.
But every market has their own mad man or woman.
Uhuru I explained several times is using Raila for two purposes
1) Pacify NASA from going to the streets and causing chaos
2) Move Ruto cheese from 50-50 table. He knows unlike Raila who can be fooled with motorcade and symbols of power - Ruto understand REAL POWER.
Ultimately Uhuru is worried about NOW - governing. You're worried about the future - gaining power.
That option 2 pre-election deal is loading. GEMA are not stupid as you imagine to go for losing option. They are already meeting to formalize Uhuru choice PK who will deal with Raila. Ruto is the worse option - it start from weak point of PEV threats - you reward such with absolute No to mark the redline. You fail to resolve this logic by claiming Uhuru is a system or bewitched - ohoo he wants to loot in peace - instead of asking yourself why he has leaned to old Kenyatta nemesis Odinga.