Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on April 11, 2019, 07:43:50 AM
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(https://www.nairaland.com/attachments/9156611_tzforecast_jpegf8f0c29a05931115484b0f3bf1777145)
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Ours is cooked
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Well it could be - Agriculture was clandestinely rebased from 25 - to 30% of GDP now.
But anyway it very likely we will cross 100B (kshs 10 trillion) mark this year. It appears we have overtaken Angola to become the 3rd biggest SSA economy - after Nigeria & South Africa.
Kenya shs economic fundamentals are strongs - interest rate, inflation, exchange rate - are all in a sweat spot.
Any TZ recently re-based - saw 4% increased - Kenya is yet to re-base - and should be able to rebase in 2011 or around - after census number crunching.
So prepare for an economy of around 150B - when Uhuru leaves office in 2023.
Ruto will take kenyan economy to current South Africa level - 400-600B
Ours is cooked
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We are back to the subjective arbitrary OUTPUTS.. - anything to sanctify His Holiness the High Priest of Corruption.
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Even if you shutter your brain - like ostrich - and pretend graft has no economic impact. Corruption as a vice alone is cancer or AIDS. The economy can skyrocket but AIDS must be fought. Because it has severe effects - sick, pain, death - regardless of GDP.
I can list the non-economic impacts of graft if you want.
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You sounds like Raila. You just need to start with - We are at CROSS-ROADS. Corruption is a cancer. Why do I even take your seriously - you're pretty much empty-headed.
Even if you shutter your brain - like ostrich - and pretend graft has no economic impact. Corruption as a vice alone is cancer or AIDS. The economy can skyrocket but AIDS must be fought. Because it has severe effects - sick, pain, death - regardless of GDP.
I can list the non-economic impacts of graft if you want.
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Drought is looming with the long rains already 30+ days late.
Not sure what Jubilee is banking on to handle the looming crisis: Waiting to see how far the pesa ya wazee and the Mpesa to hungry folks in the villages will stretch.
Seems people will suffer given Ruto braggadocio stance and Uhuru no concern stance unless the rainmakers come through. Though Mkenya has learnt to vumilia all sort of traumatic experiences with god and jesus.
Well it could be - Agriculture was clandestinely rebased from 25 - to 30% of GDP now.
But anyway it very likely we will cross 100B (kshs 10 trillion) mark this year. It appears we have overtaken Angola to become the 3rd biggest SSA economy - after Nigeria & South Africa.
Kenya shs economic fundamentals are strongs - interest rate, inflation, exchange rate - are all in a sweat spot.
Any TZ recently re-based - saw 4% increased - Kenya is yet to re-base - and should be able to rebase in 2011 or around - after census number crunching.
So prepare for an economy of around 150B - when Uhuru leaves office in 2023.
Ruto will take kenyan economy to current South Africa level - 400-600B
Ours is cooked
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Yes rainfall doesn't look good. We need to allow duty free import of food anytime anyday.
Drought is looming with the long rains already 30+ days late.
Not sure what Jubilee is banking on to handle the looming crisis: Waiting to see how far the pesa ya wazee and the Mpesa to hungry folks in the villages will stretch.
Seems people will suffer given Ruto braggadocio stance and Uhuru no concern stance unless the rainmakers come through. Though Mkenya has learnt to vumilia all sort of traumatic experiences with god and jesus.
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How will this work out given the hounding of those involved in duty free fertilizer, sugar and maize in the past by DCI, EACC??
Interestingly Magufuli can boost his economy by allowing cereals exports to Kenya.
Yes rainfall doesn't look good. We need to allow duty free import of food anytime anyday.
Drought is looming with the long rains already 30+ days late.
Not sure what Jubilee is banking on to handle the looming crisis: Waiting to see how far the pesa ya wazee and the Mpesa to hungry folks in the villages will stretch.
Seems people will suffer given Ruto braggadocio stance and Uhuru no concern stance unless the rainmakers come through. Though Mkenya has learnt to vumilia all sort of traumatic experiences with god and jesus.
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You are just regular Joe mesmerized with Ruto. Defending a corrupt politician so hard - ni kama ni babako - you're a BIMBO - falling for a snake-oil hawker like Ruto ati performer. :) We are not here to ask you how high - my opinion is just as valid as yours. People die on the roads daily due to corruption. GDP iyo ni yako.
You sounds like Raila. You just need to start with - We are at CROSS-ROADS. Corruption is a cancer. Why do I even take your seriously - you're pretty much empty-headed.
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Magufuli has fought corruption - and yet the economy has basically tanked - he inherited 7% growth rate from Kikwete - he has already halved that - TSHs has depreciated against the dollar - he has clamped down on democracy and freedoms.
You see the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Nyerere never stole - he died owning only a bicyle - but he left Tanzania BANKRUPT - as in completely bankrupt - and resigned in great shame. Kenyatta stole - so much - they need to invent the word for his stealing - but he left Kenya way richer - than he found it. The more he stole - the more the economy boomed.
We need to focus on OUTPUT. Tells us what you have delivered.
You are just regular Joe mesmerized with Ruto. Defending a corrupt politician so hard - ni kama ni babako - you're a BIMBO - falling for a snake-oil hawker like Ruto ati performer. :) We are not here to ask you how high - my opinion is just as valid as yours. People die on the roads daily due to corruption. GDP iyo ni yako.
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OUTPUT - a fresh unicorn like Legacy. At least dark forces is an old line. You can't pick a single metric - GDP - and insist it's the ultimate measure of all things. Can we stop fighting AIDS or cancer because the economy is vibrant? Graft is not simply an economic factor - it is a VICE with non-economic aspects as well. A good number of road accidents are caused by corruption. We are probably seeing more cancer cases due to corruption. Terrorists bribe their way around planning massacres. Try to be dispassionate for a change.
Magufuli has fought corruption - and yet the economy has basically tanked - he inherited 7% growth rate from Kikwete - he has already halved that - TSHs has depreciated against the dollar - he has clamped down on democracy and freedoms.
You see the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Nyerere never stole - he died owning only a bicyle - but he left Tanzania BANKRUPT - as in completely bankrupt - and resigned in great shame. Kenyatta stole - so much - they need to invent the word for his stealing - but he left Kenya way richer - than he found it. The more he stole - the more the economy boomed.
We need to focus on OUTPUT. Tells us what you have delivered.
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GDP is the only OUTPUT. Hii ni kali - it's like the proverbial thinking inside the box - toka hio echo chamber.
Even in China. Economy is great, but they still want freedom, etc. Many would be happier in a poorer freer country.
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Of course, we can look at other indicators - economic, socio-political and even religious - and Uhuru is doing better than Magufuli - despite the different approaches.
We need to judge leaders by what they deliver on.
OUTPUT - a fresh unicorn like Legacy. At least dark forces is an old line. You can't pick a single metric - GDP - and insist it's the ultimate measure of all things. Can we stop fighting AIDS or cancer because the economy is vibrant? Graft is not simply an economic factor - it is a VICE with non-economic aspects as well. A good number of road accidents are caused by corruption. We are probably seeing more cancer cases due to corruption. Terrorists bribe their way around planning massacres. Try to be dispassionate for a change.
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I don't know about Magufuli but graft is a really bad tumor. Which brings us to why Ruto is not the panacea or savior we need at this point. I remain unconvinced we need an omnipresent leader with glaring deficiencies like William Ruto.
Of course, we can look at other indicators - economic, socio-political and even religious - and Uhuru is doing better than Magufuli - despite the different approaches.
We need to judge leaders by what they deliver on.
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Pundito,
Absence of or reduced corruption does not necessarily mean highest growth rate. Tz is still haunted by socialist experiments of Nyerere. What they have working? They are not borrowing as if there is no tomorrow unlike us so they have the capacity to catch up while we are busy blowing our chances as most of the borrowed funds go to individuals
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Kikwete and Mkapa did well - with even more socials - Magufuli is entirely to blame - by attempting to be the anti-corruption tzar - you end up messing up big companies like Acacia/Barrick - and right now Kenya is trying to mess with CMC and Italy - when consequences come - thro capital flight - then don't cry.
Pundito,
Absence of or reduced corruption does not necessarily mean highest growth rate. Tz is still haunted by socialist experiments of Nyerere. What they have working? They are not borrowing as if there is no tomorrow unlike us so they have the capacity to catch up while we are busy blowing our chances as most of the borrowed funds go to individuals
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I think those figures are mere projections. Let's wait for the actual growth numbers.
It's always better to have an homegrown development than fake growth fuelled by a few whites and Chinese exploiting Africans. It's the reason why an African is worse on average in GDP rich South Africa than tz.
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What's hurting TZ is not anti-corruption fight(that is a good thing), but their lack of economic freedom.
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What's hurting TZ is not anti-corruption fight(that is a good thing), but their lack of economic freedom.
If I stoop to Pundit's level - of idolatry - I could pick on Nigeria or Afghanistan and showcase the evils of graft. Ignore all other factors. Of course he accuses the rest of us of wearing ODM blinkers - while he's entirely dispassionate :)
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What's hurting TZ is not anti-corruption fight(that is a good thing), but their lack of economic freedom.
nonsense.kikwete grew the economy at 7%.Magufuli is hurting tz.No iffs or butts.
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Tz economy is slowing because magufuli is attacking businesses. He may not be corrupt but harassing businesses and arbitrarily changing the rules is affecting investment. In a nutshell he thinks bureaucrats should control and command the economy. Case in point is the mess he created in the cashew nut sector. Guess who else thinks he should command the economy cause he's efficient and smart?
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You're right on Magufuli. Wrong on Ruto. Ruto approach is more Meles/Museveni/Kagame - intervening when needed - yes running a tight ship - but not being so obtuse - not to listen to contrary opinion.
Tz economy is slowing because magufuli is attacking businesses. He may not be corrupt but harassing businesses and arbitrarily changing the rules is affecting investment. In a nutshell he thinks bureaucrats should control and command the economy. Case in point is the mess he created in the cashew nut sector. Guess who else thinks he should command the economy cause he's efficient and smart?
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You're right on Magufuli. Wrong on Ruto. Ruto approach is more Meles/Museveni/Kagame - intervening when needed - yes running a tight ship - but not being so obtuse - n ot to listen to contrary opinion.
Tz economy is slowing because magufuli is attacking businesses. He may not be corrupt but harassing businesses and arbitrarily changing the rules is affecting investment. In a nutshell he thinks bureaucrats should control and command the economy. Case in point is the mess he created in the cashew nut sector. Guess who else thinks he should command the economy cause he's efficient and smart?
Its Ruto as minister for agriculture who banned export of raw macadamia. Even though biggest macadamia producer Australia sells to Chinese raw nut cause of cultural reasons https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2015-11-24/macadamia-industry-launches-million-dollar-campaign-into-china/6967782 depriving farmers better prices from the Chinese. Just like what magufuli tried to do in the guise of eliminating middlemen. He's supporting ban of green coffee export, even though their no law that prohibits coffee roasting or adding value to it. Anyway just like most kenya politicians he's a crony capitalist.
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Do or did the three go donating cash to churches over weekends? :) :) :)
You're right on Magufuli. Wrong on Ruto. Ruto approach is more Meles/Museveni/Kagame - intervening when needed - yes running a tight ship - but not being so obtuse - not to listen to contrary opinion.
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They mostly spend their weekend murdering people like you who cannot reason. Ruto preaches and prays for you type every weekend.
Do or did the three go donating cash to churches over weekends? :) :) :)
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How is Macadamia industry doing post-Ruto. Very well. There farmers are earning good money and so are the processors.
Thanks to Ruto intervention - production of macadamia nuts has increased fourfold in less than a decade as more farmers embrace the crop.The ban on export of in-shell macadamia has paid huge dividends from national annual production of 11,000 metric tonnes in 2009 and four processors to over 40,000 metric tonnes and 30 processors currently, said NutPAK executive officer Charles Muigai.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Macadamia-boom-as-more-take-up-crop/539546-4825774-gbwx6x/index.html
The same is true for tea - Ruto allowed farmers the freedom to sell to multinationals - and KTDA - has serious competition.We can go on and on - but we need intervention in coffee and tea sector - to ensure we don't sell cheaply. Srilanka did the same - they produce half the tea we do - and earn I think twice. Everyone knows about Ceylon Tea and of course LIPTON TEA - nobody has heard of Kenyan tea.
Why should we sell our tea in bulky - farmers will suffer in short term - but eventually they will reap.
Magufuli mishandled the cashew nuts - but that isn't why TZ is struggling - it's bone-headed attack of big corporates like Barrick and donors - in an aid-dependant country.
Magufuli is a classic case of good intentions leading to hell.
Its Ruto as minister for agriculture who banned export of raw macadamia. Even though biggest macadamia producer Australia sells to Chinese raw nut cause of cultural reasons https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2015-11-24/macadamia-industry-launches-million-dollar-campaign-into-china/6967782 depriving farmers better prices from the Chinese. Just like what magufuli tried to do in the guise of eliminating middlemen. He's supporting ban of green coffee export, even though their no law that prohibits coffee roasting or adding value to it. Anyway just like most kenya politicians he's a crony capitalist.
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WAGES OF SIN... the current crop of tumbocrats that have zero values - that sell out to the highest bidder for 30 pieces of silver - raise their salaries every year - inflate mileage claims - get bribed in the toilets and name it. These rotten crop are the fruits of Kenyatta, Moi, Kibaki's corrupt, wicked ways. Nyayo particularly entrenched graft - TKK - to mashinani from the ivory towers. Dishing out state cash & resources by the roadside.
People rarely see the truth plastered all around them. The crazy temperatures being experienced now happened over the decades as China, etc rapidly industrialized. The drought is caused by years of deforestation and environmental destruction. If you are afraid of terrorists for your security; if you fear for your safety on the roads; if as an employer you expend resources to verify educational credentials, you worry that even if real they are inadequately skilled and bribed their way into certification; if you worry about the future of your children; worry about where our society is headed... corruption and its High Priest is your real true enemy. Voting for the overtly unabashed, ungroomed Moneybag is literal suicide. Like the temperatures, the drought, the Judases in our Parliament, - Kenya will pay a heavy price for the wages of corruption William Ruto and his ilk are planting in our youth today.
So Pundit, you can preach here the New Testament of OUTPUTS. Spawn thread after thread - pick on Magufuli - and tell us corruption does not matter. But we know the truth. Corruption is an evil and a vice worse than incompetence, inefficiency and any poor governance combined. President William Ruto is the worst thing possible that could happen to our Dear Kenya.
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How is Macadamia industry doing post-Ruto. Very well. There farmers are earning good money and so are the processors.
Thanks to Ruto intervention - production of macadamia nuts has increased fourfold in less than a decade as more farmers embrace the crop.The ban on export of in-shell macadamia has paid huge dividends from national annual production of 11,000 metric tonnes in 2009 and four processors to over 40,000 metric tonnes and 30 processors currently, said NutPAK executive officer Charles Muigai.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Macadamia-boom-as-more-take-up-crop/539546-4825774-gbwx6x/index.html
The same is true for tea - Ruto allowed farmers the freedom to sell to multinationals - and KTDA - has serious competition.We can go on and on - but we need intervention in coffee and tea sector - to ensure we don't sell cheaply. Srilanka did the same - they produce half the tea we do - and earn I think twice. Everyone knows about Ceylon Tea and of course LIPTON TEA - nobody has heard of Kenyan tea.
Why should we sell our tea in bulky - farmers will suffer in short term - but eventually they will reap.
Magufuli mishandled the cashew nuts - but that isn't why TZ is struggling - it's bone-headed attack of big corporates like Barrick and donors - in an aid-dependant country.
Magufuli is a classic case of good intentions leading to hell.
Macadamia farmers are doing well in spite of Ruto raw nuts ban. There's boom in production as farmers look to supplement their income. Also globally macadamia nuts consumption has increased, that's why Zimbabwe is producing more https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/macadamias-to-marigold-seeds-spark-hope-for-zimbabwe-farm-reboot and South Africa https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/macadamia-nut-craze-transforms-farmland-in-south-africa-s-east . This has nothing to do with ruto ban.
The so called processing only means cracking the shell and vacuum packing. Even in-shell nuts need to be dried to remove moisture using steam powered by boiler before being exported. So technically the Ruto ban only forces processors to crack the shell. It's not like the processors are roasting, branding and packing nuts(only 3 processors do that, kenya nut,equatorial and jungle nuts). For the additional process farmers are deprived higher income for their nuts to the tune of about ksh.50 to 100 per kg. Kenya produces about 45000 to 50,000 tons annual. Which means farmers are losing about $22.5m to $50m annually. btw the processors would still be there even if the ban was lifted to clean,dry and vacuum pack.
Macadamia farmers are doing well due to overall global demand but cashew nuts industry has completely collapsed due to the ban https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Cashew-nut-farming-collapse-looms/996-3885600-ryd3ocz/ .
Everyone is for adding value to commodities to sell finished goods and capture the entire value chain. But not by arbitrarily banning export of raw commodities without even creating a brand that can absorb entire local produce. By banning export of raw nuts the local processors buy nuts at a cheaper price, since they do compete directly with Chinese. So basically farmers are subsidizing processors.
On tea, again we need to create brands that can be marketed globally, here is company doing that https://www.wsj.com/articles/kenyan-tea-a-reliable-export-brews-a-market-at-home-1488796208 . Creating brands that can be sold locally and globally. Kenya export council headed by the clueless Mr.Biwott, should be marketing our finished products just like tourism council advertises Kenya. The kenya tea levy should be used to promote local brands internationally that meet the standards.
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Nobody really has all the answers or knows until it's tried. I am all for policy experimentaton - with ability to sustain good ideas and discard bad ideas. That is what gov need to do. Private sector does this - they launch a product, monitor it and discard it if the numbers are consistently bad. The problem with public sector - is nobody want to change - and there is no evidence fact based policy making. If for example this cashew nut ban is not working - remove it. This requires a gov that is responsive - not MIA. Ruto had a free wednesday - where farmers and everyone who come and complain - Ruto also visit everywhere everytime - so such complains are heard and acted upon.
Macadamia farmers are doing well in spite of Ruto raw nuts ban. There's boom in production as farmers look to supplement their income. Also globally macadamia nuts consumption has increased, that's why Zimbabwe is producing more https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/macadamias-to-marigold-seeds-spark-hope-for-zimbabwe-farm-reboot and South Africa https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/macadamia-nut-craze-transforms-farmland-in-south-africa-s-east . This has nothing to do with ruto ban.
The so called processing only means cracking the shell and vacuum packing. Even in-shell nuts need to be dried to remove moisture using steam powered by boiler before being exported. So technically the Ruto ban only forces processors to crack the shell. It's not like the processors are roasting, branding and packing nuts(only 3 processors do that, kenya nut,equatorial and jungle nuts). For the additional process farmers are deprived higher income for their nuts to the tune of about ksh.50 to 100 per kg. Kenya produces about 45000 to 50,000 tons annual. Which means farmers are losing about $22.5m to $50m annually. btw the processors would still be there even if the ban was lifted to clean,dry and vacuum pack.
Macadamia farmers are doing well due to overall global demand but cashew nuts industry has completely collapsed due to the ban https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Cashew-nut-farming-collapse-looms/996-3885600-ryd3ocz/ .
Everyone is for adding value to commodities to sell finished goods and capture the entire value chain. But not by arbitrarily banning export of raw commodities without even creating a brand that can absorb entire local produce. By banning export of raw nuts the local processors buy nuts at a cheaper price, since they do compete directly with Chinese. So basically farmers are subsidizing processors.
On tea, again we need to create brands that can be marketed globally, here is company doing that https://www.wsj.com/articles/kenyan-tea-a-reliable-export-brews-a-market-at-home-1488796208 . Creating brands that can be sold locally and globally. Kenya export council headed by the clueless Mr.Biwott, should be marketing our finished products just like tourism council advertises Kenya. The kenya tea levy should be used to promote local brands internationally that meet the standards.