Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 12, 2017, 09:59:32 AM
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Starting from governor race...MOAS predicted about 38 correctly and missed out on 9 - which were races that were tightly contested.
Some of the highlights where MOAS disagreed with opinion pollsters and prevailed.
1) MERU - MOAS predicted on strength of Imenti vote - Kiraitu would prevail.
2) Kajiado - Despite opinion trickster tipping the former governor - MOAS predicted Ole Lenku would wipe the floor.
3) Nairobi - Despite the so called tight race - Kidero was beaten like a luhya isukuti as predicted by MOAS.
4) Bomet - They stop realizing polls - but all previous polls showed Isaac ahead - Isaac got a dog beating and has yet to be seen in public since.
5) Laikipia - Nderitu of Independent won as predicted.
6) Anne Waiguru - beat Martha Karua - which MOAS predicted before any opinion poll was ever done.
7) Ali Korane of Garissa - beat Nathif on the strength of tribal alliance (talamunge) btw Abduwaka and Sigawal(sp).
8) Lenny Kivuitu(Mbeer) stood no chance against Embu's Wambora.
9) Tharaka governor stood no chance against Meru (Chukas) - Muthomi.
8) We can go on and on...
Rough MOAS predicted tight races - that were too close to call but we had to make the call anyway
Bungoma KEN LUSAKA v W WANGAMATI
HomaBay CYPRIAN AWITI v MAGWANGA
Isiolo GODANA DOYO v MOHAMMED KUTI
Kirinyaga ANN WAIGURU V MARTH KARUA
Kitui D MUSILA V J MALOMBE VC NGILU
Kwale SMVURYA V C MWAKWERE v I Chipera
Laikipia NDERITU MURIITHI v JOSEPH IRUNGU
Lamu ISAA TIMMAY v FAHIM TWAHIM
Machakos WAVINYA NDETI v ALFRED MUTUA
Mandera HASSAN NOOR V ALI ROBA
Marsabit UKUR YATANI v MUHAMUD ALI
Migori OCHILLO AYACKO v OKOTH OBADO
TaitaTaveta T MWANDEGU v J MRUTU v D MWANZO
TanaRiver GODANA DHAHDO V H DADO V D MUNGATANA
UasinGishu JACKSON MANDAGO v KIPROTICH BUZEKI
Vihiga O OTICHILLO v M AKARANG v Y CHANZU
WestPokot JOHN LENYANGAPUA v SIMON KACHAPIN
The only surprise was Granton Samboja.
Attached is complete comparison btw what MOAS predicted and what IEBC announced.
Jubilee - Moas predicted 27 - they lost 3 - Tana River,Isiolo & Westpokot to ODM,Ind & KANU - and squeezed in a win in Wajir & Mandera - ended up with 25 governors.
ODM - MOAS predicted 11 - they got unlikely win in Tana River, Vihiga and lost Wajir. Ojamong also won against Otuoma. ODM ended up with 13.
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5 of these races will be overturned in a petition
1. Kirinyaga
2. Machakos
3. Kilifi
4. UG
5. Nairobi
petitions are already being filed as we speak.. Then depending on What Nasa decides we may see some activity in Western counties and Nyanza
I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column. The reason of not going to court is that they think that judges wont order new elections when we are most likely going to end up with the similar but close outcome.
Lessons:
Incumbency gives government of the day a lot of leverage
It is very hard to win without Kalenjins or Kikuyus. You got sacrifice everything to get either of the block.
After Nasa Jubilee will rule for another 15 years unless there is a fallout or if NASA decides to go militant on them
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The Senate projection.
We got 39 counties right. We predicted Jubilee coalition would win 25; they end up with 28. NASA 22 ended up with 19. It's a rout that makes senate Jubilee stronghold. Governors who won't toe the lie need to understand that. Unlike the previous senate which was 50-50; Jubilee has 10 (before nomination) advantage and so Jubilee controls the lower and upper house.
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Kindly share the data. I find your figures wild.
I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column.
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Kindly share the data. I find your figures wild.
I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column.
I do not have access to it. due to security we were not allowed to share or copy the data. The other thing is that you should just interrogate strongholds of Jubilee in central you will be surprised at some of the cooking done.
It was 99.5% on most polling stations and to make it look legit Raila was awarded tokens. The worst case was one place where POs decided to award Raila random 4 votes in every other polling station..This was almost like 2007/2008 no audit can determine who really won. In Nyanza the same shenanigans were carried out by NASA and Jubilee.. The only hope here is to see if petitioners are going to be able to get some of the elections nullified and they should be nullified. Hopefully courts will jail some of these ROs and candidates
Anyway Nasa knew for get go that it was herculean task to beat a determined incumbent using a demoralized base.
By next year most of the coalition partners will be working with Jubilee
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Meru had to be top - what a moron
1) MERU - MOAS predicted on strength of Imenti vote - Kiraitu would prevail.
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Meru had to be top - what a moron
hehehe yeap considering the snide remarks you and munya made...and the extensive polling damn right
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Kindly share the data. I find your figures wild.
I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column.
I do not have access to it. due to security we were not allowed to share or copy the data. The other thing is that you should just interrogate strongholds of Jubilee in central you will be surprised at some of the cooking done.
It was 99.5% on most polling stations and to make it look legit Raila was awarded tokens. The worst case was one place where POs decided to award Raila random 4 votes in every other polling station..This was almost like 2007/2008 no audit can determine who really won. In Nyanza the same shenanigans were carried out by NASA and Jubilee.. The only hope here is to see if petitioners are going to be able to get some of the elections nullified and they should be nullified. Hopefully courts will jail some of these ROs and candidates
Anyway Nasa knew for get go that it was herculean task to beat a determined incumbent using a demoralized base.
By next year most of the coalition partners will be working with Jubilee
Yup - MOAS models stuffing - Pundit is just a quack - scoring dismal 80% even with live live rigging
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Robina,
It is a mess. I am not disappointed because I knew from the get go that this was just a circus and there wont be a resolution. My take is that NASA knew the couldn't win. The GOK didn't trust it's base (Nairobi, Central and some areas at the coast) so what happened was stuffing by GOK to cover for its insecurity. Now we are going to see poor hoodlums getting killed as they try to move out of slums to the CBDs to loot and create mayhem. I am glad Raila decided earlier on that he didn't want to confront the GOK machinery so I expect this protest to run out of fuel by next weekend. The damage to Judiciary, IEBC and legitimacy of this government will really kill all the gains of the last 15 years.
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MOAS - Mother Of All Stuffing
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHC9mcnXYAAuD4G.jpg)
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Jukwaa MOAS was a pile of shit
http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/9574/projections-governor
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Ngilu and Samboja guy were quite a surprise.
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The reasons why Babu cannot wake from nightmare of 2017, Omollo and his conspirators are still looking for the smoking gun only to turn up a smelly bean.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251136/battle-for-numbers-how-jubilee-outplayed-nasa-in-its-own-game
Kisiis and Luhyias soldout and Babu was defeated. When Babu wakes up from Matanga today he will try to hoodwink his robots that he was robbed by the Cloud Kamputer
NASA on the other hand relied on impersonal huge campaign rallies spewing negative rhetoric and invective attacking of popular and transformative Jubilee initiatives such as the SGR and rural electrification in ordinary homes. This did not connect with Wanjiku. NASA has been left relying on screen–captured images from anonymous sources to claim victory. In the crucial and core opposition strongholds of Nyanza and Western Kenya that should have formed the foundation for a strong NASA showing, Jubilee made significant inroads, dealing a debilitating blow for NASA as every additional Jubilee vote was one less for NASA. ALSO READ: Bumps on Uhuru's road to expanding economy In Nyamira County, Uhuru increased his tally from 54,000 votes (29 per cent) in 2013 to in excess of 155,000 votes (52 per cent) in 2017 against NASA’s 46 per cent in what was a Raila stronghold in 2013. In this county alone, Uhuru gained in excess of 100,000 votes. In neighbouring Kisii County, Uhuru increased his vote tally from 95,000 (27 per cent) in 2013 to in excess of 170,000 (43 per cent) in 2017, gaining approximately 75,000 new voters. Raila’s vote tally reduced from 236,000 (64 per cent) in 2013 to approximately 220,000 (52 per cent) in 2017. Next door in Migori County, Uhuru increased his vote tally from 26,000 in 2013 to in excess of 44,000 in 2017, with Jubilee winning all the parliamentary seats in Kuria (Kuria East and Kuria West). This was a significant shift from within Raila’s home province. Major gains Western Kenya provided the most dramatic but astounding gain for Uhuru, considering that two NASA principals, Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi, hail from this region. The NASA coalition had pegged their hopes on getting in excess of 90 per cent of votes. This was not to be. In 2013, Uhuru garnered 42,000 votes (12 per cent) in Bungoma County. He garnered 127,000 votes (34 per cent), gaining approximately 85,000 new votes. The Jubilee Party also won about 45 per cent of the nine seats in the county having won Kimilili, Mt Elgon, Sirisia and Webuye West. In neighbouring Kakamega County, a similar fate befell NASA. In 2013, Jubilee managed approximately 12,000 votes (three per cent). But in 2017, Jubilee garnered in excess of 63,000 votes (nine per cent) while at the same time winning 33 per cent of the parliamentary seats (Ikolomani, Malava, Navakholo and Mumias East) in an area that did not have any Jubilee MPs in the 2013-2017 Parliament. ALSO READ: NASA asks supporters to avoid engaging cops In Busia and Vihiga, the tally increased to about 34,000 in 2017. These figures represent a total representation of 12 Jubilee MPs in Western Kenya and a massive improvement from about 66,000 votes for Uhuru in the four counties in 2013 compared to in excess of 242,000 in 2017. The Coastal region, another perceived NASA stronghold from which they had projected to gain a major competitive edge over Jubilee, also failed to deliver as expected. Jubilee gained two governors in the coast — Lamu’s Fahim Twaha and Kwale’s Salim Mvurya. In 2013, Jubilee had only succeeded in garnering approximately 158,000 votes in the six Coast counties, but this has improved to in excess of 285,000 in 2017, with a net gain of approximately 130,000 votes. In Ukambani, another perceived NASA stronghold, Jubilee registered an improved performance, garnering more than 171,000 votes from 89,000 in 2013. This is apart from winning the Machakos County gubernatorial seat, through its affiliate party, Alfred Mutua’s Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC). But a sterling performance in NASA strongholds by Uhuru was just half the Jubilee success story. The party also had a good showing in the battleground counties. Dethroning NASA in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, was a significant win for the Jubilee Party. By virtue of its metropolitan nature, it represents the thinking of Kenya. Strategic campaign In Nairobi, Uhuru garnered approximately 780,000 votes, an improvement from 660,000 votes in 2013, gaining about 120,000 votes. More so,winning both the gubernatorial and senatorial seats in Nairobi is a manifestation of national acceptability of both the Jubilee Party and Uhuru as its presidential candidate. The floodgates also burst open in the North-Eastern region where the Jubilee Party won majority of the gubernatorial seats, sweeping Mandera, Wajir and Garissa. The region gave Uhuru 213,000 votes, an improvement from 175,000 in 2013. ALSO READ: Heal this country Mr President, religious leaders tell Uhuru The Jubilee campaign also succeeded in turning the Maasai vote in their favour by winning both the Kajiado and Narok gubernatorial seats while winning approximately 329,000 (55 per cent) of the presidential vote. This was an improvement from 2013 when they garnered 248,000 votes. Touch and feel The Jubilee Party ran a smart, targeted and strategic campaign pegged on their transformative five years in office. It recognised that NASA didn’t have anything concrete and bankable to offer Kenyans, except an abstract promise to deliver them to a Utopian place called Canaan. Kenyans simply didn’t buy it. They wanted something more substantive that they could touch and feel, like the road network, electricity connections, the Standard Gauge Railway, a social protection plan, improved healthcare and more jobs. That’s why they voted for Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta.They have given UK a thumbs up sign with more than eight million votes and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in 35 counties. - The writer is a senior lecturer at the History Department, University of Nairobi
Read more at: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251136/battle-for-numbers-how-jubilee-outplayed-nasa-in-its-own-game
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Boring. Who do you really think will read all that crap. Move on already.
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Another twirra MOAS
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The evidence that this was a computer generated election is too overwhelming and has not been debunked in any way.
So this exercise is totally unproductive. It is like debating the "results" of the Azeri Election a day before voting:
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/azeri3.jpg)
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Who has the list of mps and counties - that I can use to compare how MOAS performed in parliamentary projection. Also certified final IEBC results per county?
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Let's wait for the Bot to stop awarding and subtracting votes then I will hand you your list. At this rate some may not be MPs given the votes being deducted post declaration.
One Presidential candidate has lost 7000 votes to the bot.
Who has the list of mps and counties - that I can use to compare how MOAS performed in parliamentary projection. Also certified final IEBC results per county?
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Turns out we hath a self-fulfilling prophet, Nipate.org's very own. Veritas should organize an iSwearing-in party with Sonko's loose change.
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I like the Ichaweli smike this Azerbainjani guy is sporting. Has he been invited to join us at Uhuru Park?