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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: vooke on July 27, 2017, 11:53:16 AM

Title: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: vooke on July 27, 2017, 11:53:16 AM
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: RV Pundit on July 27, 2017, 12:05:48 PM
Interesting.Lusaka is perceived to have delivered - so I am not surprised. But what was the sampling size. Yeah I know it very close but didn't think he can nick it. Lusaka is popular in his area -kiminini,Sirisia, Webuye and mt elgon. Wangamati seem only popular in Kanduyi,Bumula and Kabuchai.  This is bad news for NASA....

Look like we may change MOAS for some governor seats... they are just too many close calls.
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: vooke on July 27, 2017, 12:09:12 PM
Quote from: RV Pundit on July 27, 2017, 12:05:48 PM
Interesting.Lusaka is perceived to have delivered - so I am not surprised. But what was the sampling size. Yeah I know it very close but didn't think he can nick it. Lusaka is popular in his area -kiminini,Sirisia, Webuye and mt elgon. Wangamati seem only popular in Kanduyi,Bumula and Kabuchai.  This is bad news for NASA....

Look like we may change MOAS for some governor seats... they are just too many close calls.
I think the pollster was a tad too generous to him, but for a Jubilee candidate this popular in a NASWA stronghold. It means either he has really delivered or Jubilee has made inroads. I last visited Bungoma and Busia in June and none of these were apparent from my brief interaction with the residents of Bungoma
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: RV Pundit on July 27, 2017, 12:13:13 PM
Yeap I'd have to know how they sampled. But Lusaka and Oparanya in western are perceived and indeed did deliver. Ojamong and Vihiga dude - do not have that same reputation. Wangamati is not politician - so he is really struggling - and financially he is also struggling. Bukusu could suprise NASA --- I think this where we are seeing a lot of undecided. I mean nobody anymore understands where Wetangula is taking folks....so maybe they see Lusaka (Jubilee Sec Gen) and CS Wamalwa - as real alternative. But there is a lot of ODM loud mouths you'll find in Bungoma...esp the lower part (Kanduyi-bumula)..which is where loud mouth Jacob Juma came from.

What is helping Lusaka is that he has mt elgon under lock and key, his kiminini or is kimili, he has Maj Wakula in Sirisia doing damage and seem to have the Tachoni (around Webuye) - although - I think WWW chose Deputy Governor there. Halafu maybe NASA are splitting their vote...former Kanduyi Mp Alfred Kangat  & Stephen Muhoro (of consumer protection)...are also in NASA.

Quote from: vooke on July 27, 2017, 12:09:12 PM
I think the pollster was a tad too generous to him, but for a Jubilee candidate this popular in a NASWA stronghold. It means either he has really delivered or Jubilee has made inroads. I last visited Bungoma and Busia in June and nine of these were apparent from my brief interaction with the residents of Bungoma
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: Nefertiti on July 27, 2017, 06:57:15 PM
Or just maybe your MOAS are mediocre

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 27, 2017, 12:05:48 PM
Interesting.Lusaka is perceived to have delivered - so I am not surprised. But what was the sampling size. Yeah I know it very close but didn't think he can nick it. Lusaka is popular in his area -kiminini,Sirisia, Webuye and mt elgon. Wangamati seem only popular in Kanduyi,Bumula and Kabuchai.  This is bad news for NASA....

Look like we may change MOAS for some governor seats... they are just too many close calls.
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:17:46 AM
Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 07:21:53 AM
Maybe they got everything wrong then? Trust my MOAS.
Quote from: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:17:46 AM
Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 11:15:00 AM
I was making my suggestions for improvement then you decided it will infringe on the pre-determined results and rejected the suggestions. That proved my case that your MOAS started from the "outcome" down to the factors leading to that. So you adjust the factors to fit the outcome.

A better process would be to let the factors freely give you whatever outcome and you accept it.

For instance there is no way Raila's vote will shrink by 1 -400 % while Uhuru's expands by the same.

Then there are places in RV where you have chosen to ignore all evidence of a shift. To say Raila will get 14% in Bomet and clearly base that not on current events but largely on the 2013 outcome, would make sense, if you were also applying the same to Uhuru! It looks like you have (quite aptly I would say) Double Standards or to be exact two standards: One of Uhuru and a rather bad one for Raila.

A MOAS does not have to disregard all the rules of qualitative research. I would say you have allowed bias to influence and direct your analysis of the data.
Quote from: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 07:21:53 AM
Maybe they got everything wrong then? Trust my MOAS.
Quote from: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:17:46 AM
Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 01:19:27 PM
8.8.2017 is 10 days away. Let us see how this goes. I may have one last go to refine the numbers this time...so maybe I'll factor some of your consideration. In Bomet that 14% is slowly evaporating.
Quote from: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 11:15:00 AM
I was making my suggestions for improvement then you decided it will infringe on the pre-determined results and rejected the suggestions. That proved my case that your MOAS started from the "outcome" down to the factors leading to that. So you adjust the factors to fit the outcome.

A better process would be to let the factors freely give you whatever outcome and you accept it.

For instance there is no way Raila's vote will shrink by 1 -400 % while Uhuru's expands by the same.

Then there are places in RV where you have chosen to ignore all evidence of a shift. To say Raila will get 14% in Bomet and clearly base that not on current events but largely on the 2013 outcome, would make sense, if you were also applying the same to Uhuru! It looks like you have (quite aptly I would say) Double Standards or to be exact two standards: One of Uhuru and a rather bad one for Raila.

A MOAS does not have to disregard all the rules of qualitative research. I would say you have allowed bias to influence and direct your analysis of the data.
Quote from: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 07:21:53 AM
Maybe they got everything wrong then? Trust my MOAS.
Quote from: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:17:46 AM
Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:24:59 PM
Pundit

I was talking to someone very close to Uhuru who I know is in on the rigging plan. He has no idea where I stand and I encourage him to so think. Guess what figure he mentioned after he said "we're winning this in the first round like last time"?

53%

 
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 02:34:32 PM
He is absolutely right - worse case ni 52%.
Quote from: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:24:59 PM
Pundit

I was talking to someone very close to Uhuru who I know is in on the rigging plan. He has no idea where I stand and I encourage him to so think. Guess what figure he mentioned after he said "we're winning this in the first round like last time"?

53%

 
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: Nefertiti on July 28, 2017, 02:53:00 PM
Heheh - obviously Omollo means the said fellow had seen the MOAS - read you are a Jubilee propagandist

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 02:34:32 PM
He is absolutely right - worse case ni 52%.
Quote from: Omollo on July 28, 2017, 02:24:59 PM
Pundit

I was talking to someone very close to Uhuru who I know is in on the rigging plan. He has no idea where I stand and I encourage him to so think. Guess what figure he mentioned after he said "we're winning this in the first round like last time"?

53%

 
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 02:57:39 PM
Why would somebody even think that - MOAS is contemporaneous issues of the moment - otherwise I am here always discussing anything.
Quote from: Robina on July 28, 2017, 02:53:00 PM
Heheh - obviously Omollo means the said fellow had seen the MOAS - read you are a Jubilee propagandist
Title: Re: Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?
Post by: Nefertiti on July 28, 2017, 03:03:03 PM
So you tell yourself. In the off chance RVGEMA turnout declines NASA may have a fighting chance. Otherwise get ready for rigging claims, riots and teargas.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 28, 2017, 02:57:39 PM
Why would somebody even think that - MOAS is contemporaneous issues of the moment - otherwise I am here always discussing anything.
Quote from: Robina on July 28, 2017, 02:53:00 PM
Heheh - obviously Omollo means the said fellow had seen the MOAS - read you are a Jubilee propagandist