Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Omollo on March 16, 2017, 06:34:32 PM
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He is now virtually unopposed in Jubilee.
Tuju is demanding a Form 4 Certificate from Sonko knowing that he does not have it. Then Sakaja is offered The Senate Seat (of Sonko) and Baba Yao heads to Kiambu.
So what are WSR's choices? If he supports Kidero to beat PK, we know Kidero will run in 2022.
Talks have hit a snag within Jubilee Party's Team Nairobi for a formidable candidate to take on Peter Kenneth in the governor primaries.
Some quit the governor race while others abandoned the group for Kenneth's camp. Others have decided to go it alone.
The team brings together Senator Mike Sonko, MPs Johnson Sakaja (Nominated), Dennis Waweru (Dagoretti South), and former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru.
All the four had declared their bids to take over from incumbent Governor Evans Kidero in the August 8 poll.
But Sakaja bowed out of the race and presented his papers for Nairobi Senator nomination to the party headquarters on Thursday.
Read: Sakaja quits governor race, presents nomination papers for senator
Jubilee Party set Friday, March 17 as the deadline for submission of nomination papers.
Wanjiru told the Star on phone that she submitted her papers for the governor race to the party's head office in the first week of the exercise.
"I was the first person to submit my papers. I do not need to tell everybody that I am taking my papers because I am not anyone’s project," she said.
"I took my papers because I know what I stand for and what Nairobians want."
Wanjiru's son Stephen Kariuki (Mathare MP) took Kenneth to present his nomination papers.
Waweru said that they were still negotiating and that he will have submitted his papers by Friday.
There were reports that he had also bowed out of the race, choosing instead to defend his seat.
"I will submit my papers, probably tomorrow. Whether I will submit papers for governor, MP, Senator or deputy governor will depend on what we agree," he said.
"People should stop this propaganda (that I will defend my seat). What is wrong with me running for Dagoretti South MP again?"
Sonko is yet to submit his papers. There were reports that police declined to issue him with a certificate of good conduct, one of the requirements for participating in the nominations.
The Senator's group had opposed Kenneth's entry into the race, calling him "an outsider being brought through the backdoor".
But the former Gatanga MP said he was born and brought up in Nairobi, and that he was ready to face the team during the nominations.
Kenneth tried his hand at the presidency during the March 2013 general election.
He presented his nomination papers on Wednesday.
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Sources in Jubilee say there are good reasons why both Sonko and Sakaja failed to make the cut.
1. Sakaja: He has no Bachelor's degree.
2. Sonko: While he has earned a Bachelor's degree there are questions which would be solved if he produced a valid form four certificate that granted him the power to read and do all that appertains .... at the University.
My source says that Sonko presented the same situation Bishop Wanjiru presented to ODM in 2013. If Jubilee clears him and even the IEBC, a court could later throw him out and cause serious damage. If he is the candidate being knocked off the ballot, the effects could be damaging.
Sakaja has gone without a fight. I am still not sure it is true that the man just hustled his way to fame with no education worth mentioning.
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Not a particularly bright chap was he?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7Cf5QjWYAABgg7.jpg)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7CgJwoWkAAR1ck.jpg)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7CgIjxWYAIcQmA.jpg)
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In 2013 Wanjiru had a PhD in Theology but no bachelor's or master's certificate. Only in Kenya.
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My reading is Ruto has made peace with Kenneth's entry seeing he has no control over the country's politics. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
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My reading is Ruto has made peace with Kenneth's entry seeing he has no control over the country's politics. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
I am still not sure. Ruto is a politician who never gives up. There are still many avenues left. One of them is to ensure that PK or whoever Jubilee supports loses. Which is why one cannot rule out an insurgent run by Sonko. He poses no threat to Ruto's 2022 nightmares with GEMA
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In 2013 Wanjiru had a PhD in Theology but no bachelor's or master's certificate. Only in Kenya.
You would be shocked how many stand alone PhDs are out there.
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I don't see how PK as Nairobi Governor impedes Ruto inheritance of GEMA votes. There is one person who can make or un-make Ruto presidency - Uhuru. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed him - then it will be a breeze - Uhuru will be taking extended breaks in his last months - and have Ruto acting as PORK.
PK is a lightweight politician who will made mince meat by alley cat Sonko.
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Pundit
I sincerely hope you do not believe any of this. However if we win this year, I would hope you make Ruto believe the same.
GEMA change faster than any wind. Here is some reminders:
1992 - Fanatical followers of Matiba
1997 - Fanatical supporters of Kibaki
2002 - Fanatical Supporters of Kibaki
2007 - Ready to Die for and with Kibaki
2013 - Ignore Kibaki plan to plant MaDvD. Uthamaki renewed
2013 - 17 - Fanatical followers of Muthamaki Uhuru
I can tell you that as soon as GEMA vote this year, Uhuru will be worse than a lame duck Muthamaki. They would be looking beyond Uhuru.
If as we hear Mama Ngina says she saved the best for Last (Muhoho) then he will be the Muthamaki.
God grant you a long life you will bow down and say Omollo, you were right.
The tribal propaganda machinery in GEMA is formidable. I have been one of those in Opposition preaching that it either be confronted or ignored for later. There is simply no way one can dream of getting votes in GEMA areas if from outside. 1 - 5% yes. But substantial meaningful votes? Forget it. Raila wastes good time in central instead of campaigning in Coast and Ukambani and camping in Kisii.
That lie about Uhuru standing back and handing power to Ruto: please just respect yourself and do not mention it. It has been used so many times I almost want to puke.
Mudavadi visited us when I was in entering graduate school (still politically naive) and told us all the good things at home. His people later told us about how he would replace Saitoti and Moi would retire in 200 leaving him to run things. Its just that I had personally heard the same from Ngala.
That is the same lie fed to Kalonzo by Kibaki.
Why do you think Uhuru will honour it? He should start by stopping to undermine Ruto then I will believe it.
I don't see how PK as Nairobi Governor impedes Ruto inheritance of GEMA votes. There is one person who can make or un-make Ruto presidency - Uhuru. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed him - then it will be a breeze - Uhuru will be taking extended breaks in his last months - and have Ruto acting as PORK.
PK is a lightweight politician who will made mince meat by alley cat Sonko.
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PK has already beaten Ruto in round 1 by securing the jubilee gubanatorial ticket.Round 2 will be to beat him for presidency by running away with GEMA votes.
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Let say he beats Sonko. And then beats Kidero :) ; And then after that he decide not to defend his seats - but go for Ruto. Logic Onge. Kenneth is going nowhere. Sonko is big hurdle. Kidero is even bigger hurdle - Kamba+luo+luhya are 45% of Nairobi -each roughly 15% of Nairobi. Kenneth has no hope. Sonko can take kambas out of Kidero and he wins. In 3 horse race - Kidero wins.
Ujinga yako ni ya kusaliwa :)
This is what will happen - Kenneth will either be whopped by Sonko or Kidero - and then he'll start his presidential bid for 2022 - and Uhuru job is to take him to cleaners.
PK has already beaten Ruto in round 1 by securing the jubilee gubanatorial ticket.Round 2 will be to beat him for presidency by running away with GEMA votes.
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For the last 5yrs - GEMA have been nothing - but the best partners.Nobody is complaining in Jubilee and Uhuru is sleep walking to PORK.I don't know why we need to go to history. I think GEMA learnt in 2007 a lesson of humility.Maybe they don't respect other but certainly they know better than joke with some. I am going with GEMA at preset - as best indicator of the future.
Why would GEMA want to star war in 2012?
Pundit
I sincerely hope you do not believe any of this. However if we win this year, I would hope you make Ruto believe the same.
GEMA change faster than any wind. Here is some reminders:
1992 - Fanatical followers of Matiba
1997 - Fanatical supporters of Kibaki
2002 - Fanatical Supporters of Kibaki
2007 - Ready to Die for and with Kibaki
2013 - Ignore Kibaki plan to plant MaDvD. Uthamaki renewed
2013 - 17 - Fanatical followers of Muthamaki Uhuru
I can tell you that as soon as GEMA vote this year, Uhuru will be worse than a lame duck Muthamaki. They would be looking beyond Uhuru.
If as we hear Mama Ngina says she saved the best for Last (Muhoho) then he will be the Muthamaki.
God grant you a long life you will bow down and say Omollo, you were right.
The tribal propaganda machinery in GEMA is formidable. I have been one of those in Opposition preaching that it either be confronted or ignored for later. There is simply no way one can dream of getting votes in GEMA areas if from outside. 1 - 5% yes. But substantial meaningful votes? Forget it. Raila wastes good time in central instead of campaigning in Coast and Ukambani and camping in Kisii.
That lie about Uhuru standing back and handing power to Ruto: please just respect yourself and do not mention it. It has been used so many times I almost want to puke.
Mudavadi visited us when I was in entering graduate school (still politically naive) and told us all the good things at home. His people later told us about how he would replace Saitoti and Moi would retire in 200 leaving him to run things. Its just that I had personally heard the same from Ngala.
That is the same lie fed to Kalonzo by Kibaki.
Why do you think Uhuru will honour it? He should start by stopping to undermine Ruto then I will believe it.
I don't see how PK as Nairobi Governor impedes Ruto inheritance of GEMA votes. There is one person who can make or un-make Ruto presidency - Uhuru. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed him - then it will be a breeze - Uhuru will be taking extended breaks in his last months - and have Ruto acting as PORK.
PK is a lightweight politician who will made mince meat by alley cat Sonko.
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People start wars because they feel they can.
However do not assume they will start a war. I agree that it would be totally unnecessary.
Kijana Wamalwa made a deal with Kibaki: He would run for term two. He wasn't there to demand his MoU's implementation. I know we will die. But suppose GEMA gets rid of Ruto? Who will demand 2022?
Tell me one reason why anybody in GEMA would want Ruto alive? What can they gain with a living and breathing Ruto? In contrast think of how many "problems" would just disappear if he just vanished?
For the last 5yrs - GEMA have been nothing - but the best partners.Nobody is complaining in Jubilee and Uhuru is sleep walking to PORK.I don't know why we need to go to history. I think GEMA learnt in 2007 a lesson of humility.Maybe they don't respect other but certainly they know better than joke with some. I am going with GEMA at preset - as best indicator of the future.
Why would GEMA want to star war in 2012?
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Suppose Uhuru dies now - and Ruto automatically become PORK.
People start wars because they feel they can.
However do not assume they will start a war. I agree that it would be totally unnecessary.
Kijana Wamalwa made a deal with Kibaki: He would run for term two. He wasn't there to demand his MoU's implementation. I knoiw we will die. But suppose GEMA gets rid of Ruto? Who will demand 2022?
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Thats the only way Ruto can become Pork,no more no less
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Pundit I have to admit that would send all of us below the drawing table! I for one would not vote for Raila come rain come shine.
I know Ruto has what it takes to bring about the changes we need. At least some of them. I would immediately send urgent advice to him to ask for urgent foreign assistance to disarm the soldiers in Somalia or have them destroyed as a fighting unit.
Suppose Uhuru dies now - and Ruto automatically become PORK.
People start wars because they feel they can.
However do not assume they will start a war. I agree that it would be totally unnecessary.
Kijana Wamalwa made a deal with Kibaki: He would run for term two. He wasn't there to demand his MoU's implementation. I knoiw we will die. But suppose GEMA gets rid of Ruto? Who will demand 2022?
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Not a particularly bright chap was he?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7Cf5QjWYAABgg7.jpg)
I find the degree requirement for political office ridiculous and exclusionary. Especially in a population where most people don't have a high school education. What is the justification for it?
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Not a particularly bright chap was he?
I find the degree requirement for political office ridiculous and exclusionary. Especially in a population where most people don't have a high school education. What is the justification for it?
i opposed it as inherently undemocratic. A voter without a degree has rights limited unconstitutionally. There is a constitutional right to vote and be voted for. That right is therefore diminished. All voters shall be equal. Are they? Not when some can be elected and others not.
Remember when women were not allowed to vote? And non taxpayers and illiterates barred? The world moved from that but sadly we are now at that stage. It's shameful
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PK is likely to succeed as governor, it just won't stop Ruto from becoming PORK. If Uhuruto did not want him we would know by now. In any case I would rather Kidero remains than have the uncouth "alley cat" running the city.
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PK is likely to succeed as governor, it just won't stop Ruto from becoming PORK. If Uhuruto did not want him we would know by now. In any case I would rather Kidero remains than have the uncouth "alley cat" running the city.
With Sonko fighting him, PK will not make it to the IEBC ballot. I am almost 80% sure Sonko will make short business of him.
Sonko has a very wide and deep network. See how he managed to get Shebesh elected. I think he had his eyes on the Governorship and hence failed or refused to assist Baba Yao.
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PK is likely to succeed as governor, it just won't stop Ruto from becoming PORK. If Uhuruto did not want him we would know by now. In any case I would rather Kidero remains than have the uncouth "alley cat" running the city.
With Sonko fighting him, PK will not make it to the IEBC ballot. I am almost 80% sure Sonko will make short business of him.
Sonko has a very wide and deep network. See how he managed to get Shebesh elected. I think he had his eyes on the Governorship and hence failed or refused to assist Baba Yao.
The support of Jubilee MPs for PK indicates something about Uhuru’s wishes. Look at his delayed clearance. This complicates matters in Kidero's favor.
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The support of Jubilee MPs for PK indicates something about Uhuru’s wishes. Look at his delayed clearance. This complicates matters in Kidero's favor.
Uhuru made what I think is an unnecessary pact with PK. He made the pact to pander to those of his supporters want to be assure that Uthamaki will remain in GEMA hands. As you can see he is from Murang'a while Kibaki was from Nyeri. So the people of Murang'a are being assured of their turn.
The MPs are simply following orders. They can't risk being headstrong now when they need money and support from Uhuru.
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The support of Jubilee MPs for PK indicates something about Uhuru’s wishes. Look at his delayed clearance. This complicates matters in Kidero's favor.
Uhuru made what I think is an unnecessary pact with PK. He made the pact to pander to those of his supporters want to be assure that Uthamaki will remain in GEMA hands. As you can see he is from Murang'a while Kibaki was from Nyeri. So the people of Murang'a are being assured of their turn.
The MPs are simply following orders. They can't risk being headstrong now when they need money and support from Uhuru.
I think Ruto is assured of Uhuru’s backing regardless of any pact with PK. That said, if the man cannot beat Sonko in Nairobi he is not a worthy bet for GEMA.
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I think Ruto is assured of Uhuru’s backing regardless of any pact with PK. That said, if the man cannot beat Sonko in Nairobi he is not a worthy bet for GEMA.
Robina,
I agree. The PK - Uhuru (rumored) Pact was dead before arrival.
Uhuru may support Ruto for 2022. Just like Kibaki thought he could get Mudavadi elected, Uhuru cannot have control over GEMA after this election (unless he loses and remains the symbol of opposition - an unlikely choice considering he would attract negative attention to the family wealth).
That said, I believe the deal with PK was just to make sure he doesn't take away some 60K votes around the country. With the loss of direct access to the IEBC register and all efforts to restore it failing, every possible GEMA or Pro-GEMA vote counts. The idea was to keep PK off the ballot NOT to make him heir. He may have received promises and undertakings - may be a Kalonzo like secret MoU - but he can just put it to use next time he's in a toilet and finds no TP. That is because if such was drawn by Njee Muturi in State House, he used it in the loo and not because there was no TP!
PK cannot beat a serious politician. He lacks any issues to galvanize followers and instead relies on some kind of "charisma" based on his personality. That does not last long and once subjected to the vulgarities and roughness of politics, he lacks the capacity to hit back. I can't stand him and should it come to him and Ruto in 2022, I would love to advise on how to bring him down. A few well direct matusi and a whiff of a false sex scandal or two (to undermine what he holds dear - his so called Mr. Clean Image) and you have him by the gonads. In short he is in for the show effect and because he thinks that is what he should do. Give him the presidency and you have a jet set gigolo working all the nude beaches. I kind of look forward to his candidacy - if ever it becomes serious.
The problem for Jubilee in Nairobi is that PK (Mbaru) and Sonko (Waititu) will share votes and allow Kidero another term. Kidero adds no value to Opposition so this is one seat I would like to see NASA concede.
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I see. For me I care less about Ruto-GEMA politics and more about the face of Nairobi. So am for PK or Kidero in place of the vitriolic former Shimo la Tewa resident cum drug dealer. The moron cannot even don a tie for a day to save face. What exactly do you expect of his "leadership" if he won? Nairobi may turn into Soddom! I believe that is the real reason UhuRuto favor PK and not any alleged GEMA succession.
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I see. For me I care less about Ruto-GEMA politics and more about the face of Nairobi. So am for PK or Kidero in place of the vitriolic former Shimo la Tewa resident cum drug dealer. The moron cannot even don a tie for a day to save face. What exactly do you expect of his "leadership" if he won? Nairobi may turn into Soddom! I believe that is the real reason UhuRuto favor PK and not any alleged GEMA succession.
It is my sincere belief that PK will regret not having taken Niccolo Machiavelli seriously. I was thinking about it and found myself laughing. He is being sent on a mission which if he succeeds or fails he still comes out the loser. I think Uhuru does not mind Kidero in Nairobi. Just like he was relieved when Mbaru and Baba Yao failed in 2013. He can comfortably assure Ruto that there is no danger and Ruto might have seen it that way.
I think Sonko will wipe him off the plate. Now if Sonko beats Kidero, he will find himself in the deep end of the cesspool. If loses, they have a guy - Kidero - speaking the language they understand. He is no populist and could never pose any danger to Ruto. Plus he has so many scandals they would have him by the balls.
Above all, they know NASA barely tolerates him. The grassroot hates the man. A perfect candidate. He plans to run in 2022 but lacks a firm constituency of loyal voters to start with - a pre-requisite in Kenyan tribal politics.
Who knows what beast Sonko could grow into if he wins?
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If Jubilee does not try to undemocratic ways to lock jubilee out,Sonko can easily be the governor of Nairobi. He is a guy who can get votes across tribal lines. It would be hard for anyone to remove him after he wins. Guys like Joho have managed to be governor for a full term despite lacking proper academic papers.
I do agree with Omollo that Kikuyus have always supported one of their own and nothing will make them support Ruto after uhuru's term. They will be free to chose whoever they want to.
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Nairobi next governor to me will be Sonko. He will win Jubilee nomination - after appointing a safe GEMA pair of hands as his deputy - and will then prize away Kamba vote from Kidero - leaving Kidero with luo-luhyas in Nairobi. PK is another Mbaru. He is not ready for the rumble tumble of city politics.As for those like Robina who want to have corporate type to ran political affairs - sorry - you need more skills than just wearing a suit & tie. Sonko is seen as modern day robinhood...robbing the rich and giving the poor. He is also seen to be less or non-tribal. He helps people across the board.He is also quit generous. And most importantly he is fearless go-getter who is ready for fight any day - which in a city of slums like Nairobi is quite handy.
In the event PK somehow wins Jubilee nomination - he will be trounced by Kidero. PK is only assured of GEMA (kikuyu vote) who like the Purkos of Narok cannot countenance anyone else as Nairobi Governor. He doesn't have Luo or Luhya or Kamba support. That is already 45%!
PK has basically refused to listen to common sense. We told him in 2003 to ran for Muranga after he did a spledid job in Gatanga but he thought it was too small for him - he went for POrK. Common sense again this year is saying he should ran for Muranga - but look - he thinks he is urbane.
Why on earth would Nairobi people vote for another Kidero in PK? It either change (Sonko) or Kidero (empty suit). People are tired with academic visions & want somebody who can just do it - common sense stuff like supplying water, collecting rubbish and reigning matatu madness - doesn't require a degree - it just need somebody with can-do mentality - and sonko fits the bill according to many Nairobians disappointed by Kidero.
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PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.
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Old tired tale. Nobody knows how nomination will fare out. This is not ODM where Raila will hand over certificate or do boardroom negotiation. People will square it on April. I am telling you Sonko will beat kidero like a sonko - backed by low -class nairobians across all tribes.
I know many kikuyus are not happy with Kidero running the show and feel with their numbers & investement - they ought to lead - like they did during mayor time - but big question - remain - how will they prize Kambas out of Kidero camp?
Nairobi census remain roughly kikuyus (30%); Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%); the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc. Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus) -
Nairobi will roughly end up 52% (if Cord can keep kambas) versus 48% - both for presidential & governorship - except where Sonko is involved.
If Kalonzo cross over to Jubilee or ran alone...then equation is flipped...Kalonzo get his 12%...Uhuru goes to 52%..and Raila & Kidero would be lucky with 25%,
Bottomline; Kambas hold the trump card in Nairobi; they are the undecided factor.
Only one scenario exist where PK win ...he get backed by KALONZO..in some 2022 deal.
PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.
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Sonko will have the highest number of votes in all these parties nominations. His constituent have all the time to line up on any day.
Sonko is among the rare political animals since times of Mboya & JM who have been able to create such a passionate support base away from ethnic blocs or certain euphoric waves.
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Pundit, why is Uhuru supporting PK? Does he not see your logic? I think he'd rather lose the seat than hand the city to a thug.
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Uhuru is not supporting anybody. Uhuru main and only concern is winning his own election. He really has no such luxury. Maybe Ruto has half the day to support his candidates but Uhuru - just want to win it for himself.
Pundit, why is Uhuru supporting PK? Does he not see your logic? I think he'd rather lose the seat than hand the city to a thug.
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Yeap another trump. Most of folks here will not see the signs even if it stared at them. Sonko is the next governor. Kidero has failed. PK is kikuyu Kidero.
Sonko will have the highest number of votes in all these parties nominations. His constituent have all the time to line up on any day.
Sonko is among the rare political animals since times of Mboya & JM who have been able to create such a passionate support base away from ethnic blocs or certain euphoric waves.
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but big question - remain - how will they prize Kambas out of Kidero camp?
Nairobi census remain roughly kikuyus (30%); Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%); the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc. Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus) -
Stage manage a sonko exit from Jubilee and ensure he decamps to Maendeleo chap chap, he will run away with his young impressionable souls & kambas, let Kenneth run on jubilee where he gets the gema vote, Kidero is left with luos and luhyas. Kidero looses and either sonko or Kenneth win
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I am unable to find any backing for the demographic breakdown of Nairobi that you have presented here. Is it mere guesswork?
I do not believe Luos, Luhya and Kamba are 5% a piece. That is a joke.
Kalenjins, despite Moi being in power for 24 years never really made a presence in Nairobi. yet when you combine them with Kisii, Somalis, etc you theoretically mean they are 5% each (or more). If I get time I will extrapolate from the known population of the various ethnic groups. It will still be inaccurate because Luhyas, Luos and Kikuyus have had varying degrees of migration traits unshared with the Kalenjin.
Nairobi census remain roughly
- kikuyus (30%);
- Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%);
- the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc.
- Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus)
Nairobi will roughly end up 52% (if Cord can keep kambas) versus 48% - both for presidential & governorship - except where Sonko is involved.
If Kalonzo cross over to Jubilee or ran alone...then equation is flipped...Kalonzo get his 12%...Uhuru goes to 52%..and Raila & Kidero would be lucky with 25%,
Bottomline; Kambas hold the trump card in Nairobi; they are the undecided factor.
Only one scenario exist where PK win ...he get backed by KALONZO..in some 2022 deal.
PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.
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Omollo.Maybe I wasn't clear. The last demographic breakdown( I think based on 2009 census) for Nairobi had something like Kikuyus(33%), Kambas(17%), Luhyas(16%) and Luos(15%). Gusii,Merus,Somalia and I think Indians were about 5% each.
If this doesn't work for you; you can try this small survey of nairobi slum residence:The residents are from over 15 ethnic backgrounds with the majority being Kikuyu (28%), Luhya (24%), Kamba (21%) and Luo (15%).
I am unable to find any backing for the demographic breakdown of Nairobi that you have presented here. Is it mere guesswork?
I do not believe Luos, Luhya and Kamba are 5% a piece. That is a joke.
Kalenjins, despite Moi being in power for 24 years never really made a presence in Nairobi. yet when you combine them with Kisii, Somalis, etc you theoretically mean they are 5% each (or more). If I get time I will extrapolate from the known population of the various ethnic groups. It will still be inaccurate because Luhyas, Luos and Kikuyus have had varying degrees of migration traits unshared with the Kalenjin.
Nairobi census remain roughly
- kikuyus (30%);
- Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%);
- the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc.
- Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus)
Nairobi will roughly end up 52% (if Cord can keep kambas) versus 48% - both for presidential & governorship - except where Sonko is involved.
If Kalonzo cross over to Jubilee or ran alone...then equation is flipped...Kalonzo get his 12%...Uhuru goes to 52%..and Raila & Kidero would be lucky with 25%,
Bottomline; Kambas hold the trump card in Nairobi; they are the undecided factor.
Only one scenario exist where PK win ...he get backed by KALONZO..in some 2022 deal.
PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.
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The problem is I am trying to get the breakdown by tribe from the census and hitting an empty wall. I cannot rule out the existence of such data. Plus it is possible to extrapolate from national figures.
I think the Kikuyu population is highly exaggerated. However if close to the reality then it has come at the expense of the interior population (Kiambu, Murang'a, etc).
I am also aware that a large number of the Kikuyu population belong to a non voting class. They don't register beyond a small % and find queuing to vote quite a headache. It's a just a habit of the Kenyan middle class. We have Luhyas, Luos, even Somalis who act the same way.
Omollo.Maybe I wasn't clear. The last demographic breakdown( I think based on 2009 census) had something like
- Kikuyus(33%),
- Kambas(17%),
- Luhyas(16%) and
- Luos(15%).
- Gusii,Merus,Somalia and I think Indians were about 5% each
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These figures I remember reading somewhere..this obviously has changed nearly 10yrs now.Nairobi is ever changing. Which is why I think I'd go with say 30% for kikuyus, 15% each for Luo/Kamba/Luhyas. Kikuyus & Kambas are Nairobi neighbours so they are going to be far more than their national share-I think smaller tribes are also coming to city in bigger numbers now.
The problem is I am trying to get the breakdown by tribe from the census and hitting an empty wall. I cannot rule out the existence of such data. Plus it is possible to extrapolate from national figures.
I think the Kikuyu population is highly exaggerated. However if close to the reality then it has come at the expense of the interior population (Kiambu, Murang'a, etc).
I am also aware that a large number of the Kikuyu population belong to a non voting class. They don't register beyond a small % and find queuing to vote quite a headache. It's a just a habit of the Kenyan middle class. We have Luhyas, Luos, even Somalis who act the same way.
Omollo.Maybe I wasn't clear. The last demographic breakdown( I think based on 2009 census) had something like
- Kikuyus(33%),
- Kambas(17%),
- Luhyas(16%) and
- Luos(15%).
- Gusii,Merus,Somalia and I think Indians were about 5% each
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Let's sit back and watch the show. PK is no Waititu thug... those negative traits are actually replicated in Sonko. I guess he gets backing from the MPs, Kibichos and Murathes without Uhuru backing :D Sijui PK should run in Murang'a... Ooh Sonko cried 3 days for Uhuru in 2013 while PK opposed him :D :D
Most Ruto moves are backfiring: like the hasty Jubilee merger; marketing the unpalatable Kiunjuri. GEMA just won't accept his petty Nairobi project. He needs to decide who he needs in 2022 - GEMA or Sonko/Kamba.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/mobile/article/2001233365/peter-kenneth-proposed-as-william-ruto-s-2022-running-mate
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Gema will decide who they want as Ruto deputy - PK is even better than Kiunjurui - from Ruto point of view. PK is hopeless and feckle - he'll be mince meat as Ruto deputy - If I were Gema I'd go for hard nut like Kiunjuri. Nairobi is very tricky sana. I think Ruto will stay out of this. Sonko is no push over. Wait and see. Jimnah Mbaru came with this Muranga "own" Nairobi and was soundly defeated. Nairobi is owned by slum dwellers.
Let's sit back and watch the show. PK is no Waititu thug... those negative traits are actually replicated in Sonko. I guess he gets backing from the MPs, Kibichos and Murathes without Uhuru backing :D Sijui PK should run in Murang'a... Ooh Sonko cried 3 days for Uhuru in 2013 while PK opposed him :D :D
Most Ruto moves are backfiring: like the hasty Jubilee merger; marketing the unpalatable Kiunjuri. GEMA just won't accept his petty NaPK irobi project. He needs to decide who he needs in 2022 - GEMA or Sonko/Kamba.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/mobile/article/2001233365/peter-kenneth-proposed-as-william-ruto-s-2022-running-mate
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Which GEMA to decide Rutos deputy,you must be high on weed.GEMA will have their presidential candidate in the name of PK.He will have a deputy either from Ukambani or western.Take that to nearest sacco.
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Which GEMA to decide Rutos deputy,you must be high on weed.GEMA will have their presidential candidate in the name of PK.He will have a deputy either from Ukambani or western.Take that to nearest sacco.
Their candidate is either Uhuru's brother or Kiunjuri. They will tell Ruto they are not part of any agreement.
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Once this thug moves to Wiper he can "prize away" Kamba votes as Pundit predicted. The scales tilt in PK's favor.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Sonko-join-Nasa/1064-3871138-u9scejz/index.html
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Once this thug moves to Wiper he can "prize away" Kamba votes as Pundit predicted. The scales tilt in PK's favor.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Sonko-join-Nasa/1064-3871138-u9scejz/index.html (http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Sonko-join-Nasa/1064-3871138-u9scejz/index.html)
His drawing power is not tribal. He may affect the race, but not like that. He is like the Tom Mboya of the underworld.
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He aint moving. He is just playing hard tackles. Your soft boy PK is going nowhere.
Once this thug moves to Wiper he can "prize away" Kamba votes as Pundit predicted. The scales tilt in PK's favor.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Sonko-join-Nasa/1064-3871138-u9scejz/index.html