Pundit Has Ruto Cleared The Way for Peter Kenneth

[Nefertiti]

PK is likely to succeed as governor, it just won't stop Ruto from becoming PORK. If Uhuruto did not want him we would know by now. In any case I would rather Kidero remains than have the uncouth "alley cat" running the city.

With Sonko fighting him, PK will not make it to the IEBC ballot. I am almost 80% sure Sonko will make short business of him.

Sonko has a very wide and deep network. See how he managed to get Shebesh elected. I think he had his eyes on the Governorship and hence failed or refused to assist Baba Yao.

[Omollo]

Uhuru made what I think is an unnecessary pact with PK. He made the pact to pander to those of his supporters want to be assure that Uthamaki will remain in GEMA hands. As you can see he is from Murang'a while Kibaki was from Nyeri. So the people of Murang'a are being assured of their turn.

The MPs are simply following orders. They can't risk being headstrong now when they need money and support from Uhuru.

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru made what I think is an unnecessary pact with PK. He made the pact to pander to those of his supporters want to be assure that Uthamaki will remain in GEMA hands. As you can see he is from Murang'a while Kibaki was from Nyeri. So the people of Murang'a are being assured of their turn.

The MPs are simply following orders. They can't risk being headstrong now when they need money and support from Uhuru.

[Omollo]

Robina,

I agree. The PK - Uhuru (rumored) Pact was dead before arrival.

Uhuru may support Ruto for 2022. Just like Kibaki thought he could get Mudavadi elected, Uhuru cannot have control over GEMA after this election (unless he loses and remains the symbol of opposition - an unlikely choice considering he would attract negative attention to the family wealth).

That said, I believe the deal with PK was just to make sure he doesn't take away some 60K votes around the country. With the loss of direct access to the IEBC register and all efforts to restore it failing, every possible GEMA or Pro-GEMA vote counts. The idea was to keep PK off the ballot NOT to make him heir. He may have received promises and undertakings - may be a Kalonzo like secret MoU - but he can just put it to use next time he's in a toilet and finds no TP. That is because if such was drawn by Njee Muturi in State House, he used it in the loo  and not because there was no TP!

PK cannot beat a serious politician. He lacks any issues to galvanize followers and instead relies on some kind of "charisma" based on his personality. That does not last long and once subjected to the vulgarities and roughness of politics, he lacks the capacity to hit back. I can't stand him and should it come to him and Ruto in 2022, I would love to advise on how to bring him down. A few well direct matusi and a whiff of a false sex scandal or two (to undermine what he holds dear - his so called Mr. Clean Image) and you have him by the gonads. In short he is in for the show effect and because he thinks that is what he should do. Give him the presidency and you have a jet set gigolo working all the nude beaches. I kind of look forward to his candidacy - if ever it becomes serious.

The problem for Jubilee in Nairobi is that PK (Mbaru) and Sonko (Waititu) will share votes and allow Kidero another term. Kidero adds no value to Opposition so this is one seat I would like to see NASA concede.
 

[Nefertiti]

I see. For me I care less about Ruto-GEMA politics and more about the face of Nairobi. So am for PK or Kidero in place of the vitriolic former Shimo la Tewa resident cum drug dealer. The moron cannot even don a tie for a day to save face. What exactly do you expect of his "leadership" if he won? Nairobi may turn into Soddom! I believe that is the real reason UhuRuto favor PK and not any alleged GEMA succession.

[Omollo]

I see. For me I care less about Ruto-GEMA politics and more about the face of Nairobi. So am for PK or Kidero in place of the vitriolic former Shimo la Tewa resident cum drug dealer. The moron cannot even don a tie for a day to save face. What exactly do you expect of his "leadership" if he won? Nairobi may turn into Soddom! I believe that is the real reason UhuRuto favor PK and not any alleged GEMA succession.

It is my sincere belief that PK will regret not having taken Niccolo Machiavelli seriously. I was thinking about it and found myself laughing. He is being sent on a mission which if he succeeds or fails he still comes out the loser. I think Uhuru does not mind Kidero in Nairobi. Just like he was relieved when Mbaru and Baba Yao failed in 2013. He can comfortably assure Ruto that there is no danger and Ruto might have seen it that way.

I think Sonko will wipe him off the plate. Now if Sonko beats Kidero, he will find himself in the deep end of the cesspool. If loses, they have a guy - Kidero - speaking the language they understand. He is no populist and could never pose any danger to Ruto. Plus he has so many scandals they would have him by the balls.

Above all, they know NASA barely tolerates him. The grassroot hates the man. A perfect candidate. He plans to run in 2022 but lacks a firm constituency of loyal voters to start with - a pre-requisite in Kenyan tribal politics.

Who knows what beast Sonko could grow into if he wins? 

[Ole]

If Jubilee does not try to undemocratic ways to lock jubilee out,Sonko can easily be the governor of Nairobi. He is a guy who can get votes across tribal lines. It would be hard for anyone to remove him after he wins. Guys like Joho have managed to be governor for a full term despite lacking proper academic papers.

I do agree with Omollo that Kikuyus have always supported one of their own and nothing will make them support Ruto after uhuru's term. They will be free to chose whoever they want to.

[RV Pundit]

Nairobi next governor to me will be Sonko. He will win Jubilee nomination - after appointing a safe GEMA pair of hands as his deputy - and will then prize away Kamba vote from Kidero - leaving Kidero with luo-luhyas in Nairobi. PK is another Mbaru. He is not ready for the rumble tumble of city politics.As for those like Robina who want to have corporate type to ran political affairs - sorry - you need more skills than just wearing a suit & tie. Sonko is seen as modern day robinhood...robbing the rich and giving the poor. He is also seen to be less or non-tribal. He helps people across the board.He is also quit generous. And most importantly he is fearless go-getter who is ready for fight any day - which in a city of slums like Nairobi is quite handy.

In the event PK somehow wins Jubilee nomination - he will be trounced by Kidero. PK is only assured of GEMA (kikuyu vote) who like the Purkos of Narok cannot countenance anyone else as Nairobi Governor. He doesn't have Luo or Luhya or Kamba support. That is already 45%!

PK has basically refused to listen to common sense. We told him in 2003 to ran for Muranga after he did a spledid job in Gatanga but he thought it was too small for him - he went for POrK. Common sense again this year is saying he should ran for Muranga - but look - he thinks he is urbane.

Why on earth would Nairobi people vote for another Kidero in PK?  It either change (Sonko) or Kidero (empty suit). People are tired with academic visions & want somebody who can just do it - common sense stuff like supplying water, collecting rubbish and reigning matatu madness - doesn't require a degree - it just need somebody with can-do mentality - and sonko fits the bill according to many Nairobians disappointed by Kidero.

[Pajero]

PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.

[RV Pundit]

Old tired tale. Nobody knows how nomination will fare out. This is not ODM where Raila will hand over certificate or do boardroom negotiation. People will square it on April. I am telling you Sonko will beat kidero like a sonko - backed by low -class nairobians across all tribes.

I know many kikuyus are not happy with Kidero running the show and feel with their numbers & investement - they ought to lead - like they did during mayor time - but big question - remain - how will they prize Kambas out of Kidero camp?

Nairobi census remain roughly kikuyus (30%); Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%); the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc. Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus) - 

Nairobi will roughly end up 52% (if Cord can keep kambas) versus 48% - both for presidential & governorship - except where Sonko is involved.

If Kalonzo cross over to Jubilee or ran alone...then equation is flipped...Kalonzo get his 12%...Uhuru goes to 52%..and Raila & Kidero would be lucky with 25%,

Bottomline; Kambas hold the trump card in Nairobi; they are the undecided factor.

Only one scenario exist where PK win ...he get backed by KALONZO..in some 2022 deal.

PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.

[gout]

Sonko will have the highest number of votes in all these parties nominations. His constituent have all the time to line up on any day.

Sonko is among the rare political animals since times of Mboya & JM who have been able to create such a passionate support base away from ethnic blocs or certain euphoric waves.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit, why is Uhuru supporting PK? Does he not see your logic? I think he'd rather lose the seat than hand the city to a thug.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru is not supporting anybody. Uhuru main and only concern is winning his own election. He really has no such luxury. Maybe Ruto has half the day to support his candidates but Uhuru - just want to win it for himself.

Pundit, why is Uhuru supporting PK? Does he not see your logic? I think he'd rather lose the seat than hand the city to a thug.

[RV Pundit]

Yeap another trump. Most of folks here will not see the signs even if it stared at them. Sonko is the next governor. Kidero has failed. PK is kikuyu Kidero.

Sonko will have the highest number of votes in all these parties nominations. His constituent have all the time to line up on any day.

Sonko is among the rare political animals since times of Mboya & JM who have been able to create such a passionate support base away from ethnic blocs or certain euphoric waves.

[yulemsee]

but big question - remain - how will they prize Kambas out of Kidero camp?

Nairobi census remain roughly kikuyus (30%); Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%); the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc. Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus) - 

Stage manage a sonko exit from Jubilee and ensure he decamps to Maendeleo chap chap, he will run away with his young impressionable souls & kambas, let Kenneth run on jubilee where he gets the gema vote, Kidero is left with luos and luhyas. Kidero looses and either sonko or Kenneth win

[Omollo]

I am unable to find any backing for the demographic breakdown of Nairobi that you have presented here. Is it mere guesswork?

I do not believe Luos, Luhya and Kamba are 5% a piece. That is a joke.

Kalenjins, despite Moi being in power for 24 years never really made a presence in Nairobi. yet when you combine them with Kisii, Somalis, etc you theoretically mean they are 5% each (or more). If I get time I will extrapolate from the known population of the various ethnic groups. It will still be inaccurate because Luhyas, Luos and Kikuyus have had varying degrees of migration traits unshared with the Kalenjin.

Nairobi census remain roughly

• kikuyus (30%);
• Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%);
• the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc.
• Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus)

Nairobi will roughly end up 52% (if Cord can keep kambas) versus 48% - both for presidential & governorship - except where Sonko is involved.

If Kalonzo cross over to Jubilee or ran alone...then equation is flipped...Kalonzo get his 12%...Uhuru goes to 52%..and Raila & Kidero would be lucky with 25%,

Bottomline; Kambas hold the trump card in Nairobi; they are the undecided factor.

Only one scenario exist where PK win ...he get backed by KALONZO..in some 2022 deal.

PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo.Maybe I wasn't clear. The last demographic breakdown( I think based on 2009 census) for Nairobi had something like Kikuyus(33%), Kambas(17%), Luhyas(16%) and Luos(15%). Gusii,Merus,Somalia and I think Indians were about 5% each.

If this doesn't work for you; you can try this small survey of nairobi slum residence:The residents are from over 15 ethnic backgrounds with the majority being Kikuyu (28%), Luhya (24%), Kamba (21%) and Luo (15%).

I am unable to find any backing for the demographic breakdown of Nairobi that you have presented here. Is it mere guesswork?

I do not believe Luos, Luhya and Kamba are 5% a piece. That is a joke.

Kalenjins, despite Moi being in power for 24 years never really made a presence in Nairobi. yet when you combine them with Kisii, Somalis, etc you theoretically mean they are 5% each (or more). If I get time I will extrapolate from the known population of the various ethnic groups. It will still be inaccurate because Luhyas, Luos and Kikuyus have had varying degrees of migration traits unshared with the Kalenjin.

Nairobi census remain roughly

• kikuyus (30%);
• Luo,Kambas & Luhya(15%);
• the rest share 25% - gusii, somalis,merus,indians, kalenjin, etc.
• Kidero if he maintain his coalition start with 45% - and just need 5% - Gema candidate start at around 35% (including merus)

Nairobi will roughly end up 52% (if Cord can keep kambas) versus 48% - both for presidential & governorship - except where Sonko is involved.

If Kalonzo cross over to Jubilee or ran alone...then equation is flipped...Kalonzo get his 12%...Uhuru goes to 52%..and Raila & Kidero would be lucky with 25%,

Bottomline; Kambas hold the trump card in Nairobi; they are the undecided factor.

Only one scenario exist where PK win ...he get backed by KALONZO..in some 2022 deal.

PK will be handed the jubilee certificate,Sonko will run as an independent candidate,as i told you,GEMA mafias in Nairobi are for the opinion that if PK doesnt get it,them they would rather Kidero but not Sonko.Nairobi equation is already decided and sealed.

[Omollo]

The problem is I am trying to get the breakdown by tribe from the census and hitting an empty wall. I cannot rule out the existence of such data. Plus it is possible to extrapolate from national figures.

I think the Kikuyu population is highly exaggerated. However if close to the reality then it has come at the expense of the interior population (Kiambu, Murang'a, etc).

I am also aware that a large number of the Kikuyu population belong to a non voting class. They don't register beyond a small % and find queuing to vote quite a headache. It's a just a habit of the Kenyan middle class. We have Luhyas, Luos, even Somalis who act the same way.

Omollo.Maybe I wasn't clear. The last demographic breakdown( I think based on 2009 census) had something like

• Kikuyus(33%),
• Kambas(17%),
• Luhyas(16%) and
• Luos(15%).
• Gusii,Merus,Somalia and I think Indians were about 5% each

[RV Pundit]

These figures I remember reading somewhere..this obviously has changed nearly 10yrs now.Nairobi is ever changing. Which is why I think I'd go with say 30% for kikuyus, 15% each for Luo/Kamba/Luhyas. Kikuyus & Kambas are Nairobi neighbours so they are going to be far more than their national share-I think smaller tribes are also coming to city in bigger numbers now.

The problem is I am trying to get the breakdown by tribe from the census and hitting an empty wall. I cannot rule out the existence of such data. Plus it is possible to extrapolate from national figures.

I think the Kikuyu population is highly exaggerated. However if close to the reality then it has come at the expense of the interior population (Kiambu, Murang'a, etc).
I am also aware that a large number of the Kikuyu population belong to a non voting class. They don't register beyond a small % and find queuing to vote quite a headache. It's a just a habit of the Kenyan middle class. We have Luhyas, Luos, even Somalis who act the same way.

Omollo.Maybe I wasn't clear. The last demographic breakdown( I think based on 2009 census) had something like

• Kikuyus(33%),
• Kambas(17%),
• Luhyas(16%) and
• Luos(15%).
• Gusii,Merus,Somalia and I think Indians were about 5% each

[Nefertiti]

Let's sit back and watch the show. PK is no Waititu thug... those negative traits are actually replicated in Sonko. I guess he gets backing from the MPs, Kibichos and Murathes without Uhuru backing Sijui PK should run in Murang'a... Ooh Sonko cried 3 days for Uhuru in 2013 while PK opposed him

Most Ruto moves are backfiring: like the hasty Jubilee merger; marketing the unpalatable Kiunjuri. GEMA just won't accept his petty Nairobi project. He needs to decide who he needs in 2022 - GEMA or Sonko/Kamba.
 
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/mobile/article/2001233365/peter-kenneth-proposed-as-william-ruto-s-2022-running-mate