Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Pajero on July 30, 2015, 11:52:16 AM
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CORD leader Raila Odinga’s political strongholds lead in new identity card registrations, with statistics indicating 1.9 million Kenyans have acquired the document since the 2013 polls.
Statistics from the National Registration Bureau indicate that Raila’s political bedrocks of Nyanza and Western have 304,965 and 285,582 new IDs, respectively. Cord strategists are keen to reverse President Uhuru Kenyatta’s ‘tyranny of numbers’ 2013 factor and turn the tables on the ruling Jubilee alliance.
The South Rift, in Deputy President William Ruto’s grip as a vote bloc in 2013, comes third, with 276,825 new ID cards. In Kenya, prospective voters must present an ID card or a valid passport to be registered to vote.
According to the statistics exclusively obtained by the Star, President Kenyatta’s Central backyard comes a distant fourth, with only 222,683 new ID cards.
At the Coast, a total of 215,912 IDs have been issued in the region’s six counties, while on former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka’s Ukambani political turf, 190,129 IDs have been issued. In the North Rift, the NRB has issued 183,592 IDs, Upper Eastern 147,995 and in Nairobi 126,340.
The Northeastern region – Garissa, Mandera and Wajir – has performed poorest, with only 28,614 new IDs issued. In a candid interview, NRB Principal Registration Officer Leonard Nang’ole termed the issuance of IDs fair, dismissing speculation that the process was skewed in favour of Jubilee strongholds.
“There is a very fair distribution,” Nang’ole told the Star at the bureau’s NSSF offices in Nairobi. “If you look at the patterns they are not different from the population in those areas. All areas are doing very well.”
Last week, the IEBC entered into a deal with the NRB to ensure that those who acquire IDs register as voters. “A consultative meeting between the two institutions agreed to form an interagency committee to campaign for people to register for IDs and collect them when they are ready,” the IEBC said in a statement.
Nang’ole said approximately 22.5 million Kenyans hold IDs. This means that an additional 8.2 million Kenyans could vote in the 2017 presidential polls, a completely different political scenario for leading presidential contenders.
Only 14.3 million Kenyans were registered as voters in 2013 when Candidate Uhuru was announced as having won on the strength of voter registration and turnout in his strongholds. Raila, who is laying the groundwork for what is expected to be a do-or-die final bid for the presidency, is already mobilising his support base for a huge voter registration.
The new statistics show that the drive, dubbed “Tokelezea ID” and spearheaded by ODM leaders, could be bearing fruit.
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Pretending that the IEBC, as currently constituted, can conduct a credible Presidential election, it probably can't hurt CORD.
Registering people to vote with issuance of IDs is a common sense approach.
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CORD has to come up with a powerful anti-rigging response and put it in place long before the elections. In 2002 NARC managed to cobble NGOs and party apparatchiks to completely destabilize and jam the KANU rigging machinery. Buhari with the help of elements in the army, NGOs and some very liquid anti-Jonathan forces achieved the same in Nigeria. The rigging machinery is suspected to have in some cases turned against Jonathan.
Pretending that the IEBC, as currently constituted, can conduct a credible Presidential election, it probably can't hurt CORD.
Registering people to vote with issuance of IDs is a common sense approach.
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Welcome back Pajero.
Cord can indeed win the election if they focus on registering in Luo-Luhya stronghold and hold onto the Ukambani blank while retaining the same support levels in Coast, Gusii and eslewhere.
First they need to canabilize MaDVD 4% into their plank. That makes it 48% versus 50%. If they get 2% more from registration. Then it will be pretty close. But Uhuru still wins. So CORD need something like 5-10% advantage from Voter Registration.
Looking at the figures roughly CORD plank of West/Nyanza/Ukamabni registered 304,290,190. Jubilee strongholds of Central/NorthRift/SouthRift is about 276/222/180 ...then CORD has more than 100K more voters registered..
Nairobi/Upper Eastern/NEP are shared..
Missing Central Eastern/Coast...
So if CORD continues adding 100K more registered votes than Jubilee; then come 2017; they may be 1M more votes and that can swing the vote.
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This is likely to cause a knee jack reaction in jubilee strongholds.Am not soo sure but have a feeling central has reached the saturation point,many of their youths took IDs in the run up to 2007 elections something i personally witnessed.Its also worth noting that having an ID and voting are two different things.CORD will only have a numerical advantage over jubilee only if Nyanza,western,ukambani and coast combined add additional 2 million votes.Whether this is possible or not is anyone's guess.
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It would be interesting to have the demographic profile (age-cohort) of any of those areas. I think central has more adults than children (demographic transition). And that gives them advantage. Luhyas are full of babies. Just like NEP, Upper Eastern, Turkana or Maasai....folks have 9-13 kids all under 18yrs....and so the only voters in that family are two..the man and his wife.
So roughly speaking if population of Somalis is 2m...then only 20% will have ID and vote...or 400K..1.6M will be kids of various ages.
This is likely to cause a knee jack reaction in jubilee strongholds.Am not soo sure but have a feeling central has reached the saturation point,many of their youths took IDs in the run up to 2007 elections something i personally witnessed.Its also worth noting that having an ID and voting are two different things.CORD will only have a numerical advantage over jubilee only if Nyanza,western,ukambani and coast combined add additional 2 million votes.Whether this is possible or not is anyone's guess.
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Other than registering people, the next part is to actually get them out to vote. It is possible to be successful on the first part, but still fail on the second.
The other aspect is that any significant changes will also raise the stakes for mischief. That probably requires (a) a margin that would make such mischief difficult, and (b) concrete plans for how to deal with mischief when it occurs.