Can this help CORD or another case of too little too late

[Pajero]

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[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Pretending that the IEBC, as currently constituted, can conduct a credible Presidential election, it probably can't hurt CORD.

Registering people to vote with issuance of IDs is a common sense approach.

[Omollo]

CORD has to come up with a powerful anti-rigging response and put it in place long before the elections. In 2002 NARC managed to cobble NGOs and party apparatchiks to completely destabilize and jam the KANU rigging machinery.  Buhari with the help of elements in the army, NGOs and some very liquid anti-Jonathan forces achieved the same in Nigeria. The rigging machinery is suspected to have in some cases turned against Jonathan.

Pretending that the IEBC, as currently constituted, can conduct a credible Presidential election, it probably can't hurt CORD.

Registering people to vote with issuance of IDs is a common sense approach.

[RV Pundit]

Welcome back Pajero.

Cord can indeed win the election if they focus on registering in Luo-Luhya stronghold and hold onto the Ukambani blank while retaining the same support levels in Coast, Gusii and eslewhere.

First they need to canabilize MaDVD 4% into their plank. That makes it 48% versus 50%. If they get 2% more from registration. Then it will be pretty close. But Uhuru still wins. So CORD need something like 5-10% advantage from Voter Registration.

Looking at the figures roughly CORD plank of West/Nyanza/Ukamabni registered 304,290,190. Jubilee strongholds of Central/NorthRift/SouthRift is about 276/222/180 ...then CORD has more than 100K more voters registered..

Nairobi/Upper Eastern/NEP are shared..

Missing Central Eastern/Coast...

So if CORD continues adding 100K more registered votes than Jubilee; then come 2017; they may be 1M more votes and that can swing the vote.

[Pajero]

This is likely to cause a knee jack reaction in jubilee strongholds.Am not soo sure but have a feeling central has reached the saturation point,many of their youths took IDs in the run up to 2007 elections something i personally witnessed.Its also worth noting that having an ID and voting are two different things.CORD will only have a numerical advantage over jubilee only if Nyanza,western,ukambani and coast combined add additional 2 million votes.Whether this is possible or not is anyone's guess.

[RV Pundit]

It would be interesting to have the demographic profile (age-cohort) of any of those areas. I think central has more adults than children (demographic transition). And that gives them advantage. Luhyas are full of babies. Just like NEP, Upper Eastern, Turkana or Maasai....folks have 9-13 kids all under 18yrs....and so the only voters in that family are two..the man and his wife.

So roughly speaking if population of Somalis is 2m...then only 20% will  have ID and vote...or 400K..1.6M will be kids of various ages.

This is likely to cause a knee jack reaction in jubilee strongholds.Am not soo sure but have a feeling central has reached the saturation point,many of their youths took IDs in the run up to 2007 elections something i personally witnessed.Its also worth noting that having an ID and voting are two different things.CORD will only have a numerical advantage over jubilee only if Nyanza,western,ukambani and coast combined add additional 2 million votes.Whether this is possible or not is anyone's guess.

[MOON Ki]

Other than registering people, the next part is to actually get them out to vote.   It is possible to be successful on the first part, but still fail on the second.

The other aspect is that any significant changes will also raise the stakes for mischief.   That probably requires (a) a margin that would make such mischief difficult, and (b) concrete plans for how to deal with mischief when it occurs.