Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on May 02, 2025, 08:09:36 PM
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https://x.com/DrBKhalwale/status/1918321514765828143
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When do they unleash Muhoho Kenyatta.
If I was Ruto - I would clandestinely boost Matiangi campaign - it work best for him.
Political neophyte like him are easy to deal with.
Raila and Kalonzo would be more difficult.
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The issue is not matiangi.The issue is kisii vote is gone.completely.
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The issue is not matiangi.The issue is kisii vote is gone.completely.
How many votes do kisii have nugu!
How many did vote for Ruto negligible
Matiangi is a buffoon Uhurus project
Rather vote Kalonzo the watermelon
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Funny Kisiii are celebrating they are convinced Matiangi will be president, They only need not look further than baba with deepstate.
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That means throwing under the bus kina Osoro. Ruto has adopted the babaman loser formula - scatter comrades, no time to consolidate.
When do they unleash Muhoho Kenyatta.
If I was Ruto - I would clandestinely boost Matiangi campaign - it work best for him.
Political neophyte like him are easy to deal with.
Raila and Kalonzo would be more difficult.
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Ruto will face one strong opponent.
He should dread facing Raila
The rest works best for him.
Matiangi will sell amongst bitter Kikuyus.
But they lose Ukambani who are bitter with overlooking of kalonzo who has more votes than 4% from Gusii (Nyachae 2002).
That means throwing under the bus kina Osoro. Ruto has adopted the babaman loser formula - scatter comrades, no time to consolidate.
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Nyachae wave - he got 4%.
At least Kaloi - got 8%
Funny Kisiii are celebrating they are convinced Matiangi will be president, They only need not look further than baba with deepstate.
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Correction - Nyachae got 6% of the vote in 2002. Not 4%.
And Kalonzo got 9%, not 8%.
In essence, switching from Kalonzo to Matiang'i is a drop of 3%.
So why is WSR and his team running scared of Matiang'i when he brings less votes than Melon?
1) A Kalonzo candidature optically splits Kenya into Eastern vs Western. Kalonzo representing Eastern Kenya with their Mt Kenya cousins, while WSR representing the Western Alliance (RV + Western + Nyanza). In such a scenario, WSR clinches an easy win.
2) A Matiang'i candidature splits the Western Alliance that WSR is putting together (he intends to run on an ODM ticket with an ODM running mate). Matiang'i captures the Kisii vote + half of the Luhya vote while maintaining the Central Kenya vote.
3) Even if Kalonzo were to shift to WSR, Matiang'i polls better in Ukambani than WSR cos of no 4) below.
4) The electorate seems tired of the same old rigmarole of politicians (hence the low voter turnout in 2022). Matiang'i has never run for any office; is a fresh first time candidate who comes with a proven background of competence and execution. As in if he says he is doing something, the guy will do everything to make it happen. Magufuli style.
5) The Gen Z vote resonates and rhymes better with Matiang'i than with any other candidate.
HENCE the clear panic in the WSR camp
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Western v Eastern is just good optics.
It nonsense in our ETHNIC BASED PREDICTIVE MODELLING.
You have written lot of wishful nonsense based on East and West nonsense.
This thing will as always be tribal.
Any maths where Ruto-Raila are working as unit - no need to continue doing the maths.
Both Raila and Ruto have NATIONAL SUPPORT - each easily getting 30-35%.
National support from all tribes - from all 47 counties.
Matiangi is political neophytes who at best will only fly amongst Mt kenya (mainly Kikuyu).
Outside he is nothing - you will need governors/mps/mcas battling for you camp say in Kwale - he is absent.
Kalonzo generally faces the same Matiangi mess.
To build national support is not easy.
The problem most Mt kenya leaders are too insular to build national support.
In short no need for MOASS unless I see Ruto versus Raila.
Ruto will be very happy to face Matiangi or Kalonzo or any other looser.
He has to be working on Plan A - facing Raila Odinga - Uhuru and Kikuyus seem bitter enough to try anything.
Ruto will encourage Matiangi to run so he can snatch Kalonzo.
Ruto has to work to get Kalonzo and Kambas as Plan C - if Kindiki fails to fly like its looking like - and if Raila bolt out last minute.
For Ruto plan A should be to win presidency without kikuyus and Raila - and that means finding replacement about 20% that Mt kenya have left has a void. He needs to play with Deputy Presidency for someone who can deliver 10% at least. MaDVD cant. Weta cant. Kalonzo could. Kindiki could. Then he will hunt for 10% by expanding areas he did badly - which was almost all counties outside Mt Kenya & Kalenjin - where Raila was beating him by 70% to 30%; he needs to flip that using incumbency.
Correction - Nyachae got 6% of the vote in 2002. Not 4%.
And Kalonzo got 9%, not 8%.
In essence, switching from Kalonzo to Matiang'i is a drop of 3%.
So why is WSR and his team running scared of Matiang'i when he brings less votes than Melon?
1) A Kalonzo candidature optically splits Kenya into Eastern vs Western. Kalonzo representing Eastern Kenya with their Mt Kenya cousins, while WSR representing the Western Alliance (RV + Western + Nyanza). In such a scenario, WSR clinches an easy win.
2) A Matiang'i candidature splits the Western Alliance that WSR is putting together (he intends to run on an ODM ticket with an ODM running mate). Matiang'i captures the Kisii vote + half of the Luhya vote while maintaining the Central Kenya vote.
3) Even if Kalonzo were to shift to WSR, Matiang'i polls better in Ukambani than WSR cos of no 4) below.
4) The electorate seems tired of the same old rigmarole of politicians (hence the low voter turnout in 2022). Matiang'i has never run for any office; is a fresh first time candidate who comes with a proven background of competence and execution. As in if he says he is doing something, the guy will do everything to make it happen. Magufuli style.
5) The Gen Z vote resonates and rhymes better with Matiang'i than with any other candidate.
HENCE the clear panic in the WSR camp
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The WSR - RAO dichotomy has been the dominant narrative since 2013 (basically a continuation of the Jubilee vs NASA/CORD).
But does it hold today? If ift does, how do we explain last year's protests which
1) were against WSR,
2) were not led by RAO, and
3) had NATIONAL SUPPORT (emphasis yours)??
In short, who is this, apart from WSR/RAO, that best represents the ideals of these protests?
Something in the national psyche has been changing and last year's protests were the evidence.
The Jubilee vs CORD dynamics as represented by UK/WSR on one side and RAO/Kalonzo on the other have shifted. Waves of these changing tides can even be seen in the 2022 elections. For example:
i) WSR got more votes in Bungoma than Rao did for the first time since 2007.
ii) WSR got 25% of the votes in Ukambani - even in his own home county of Kitui....from a high of 10-15% in 2013 and 2017 for the Jubilee side.
iii) Voter turnout in 2022 was the lowest it has been since 2002 elections.
In short, relying on the WSR/RAO dynamics to predict the future, when they couldn't even explain the 2024 protests, is myopic
Western v Eastern is just good optics.
It nonsense in our ETHNIC BASED PREDICTIVE MODELLING.
You have written lot of wishful nonsense based on East and West nonsense.
This thing will as always be tribal.
Any maths where Ruto-Raila are working as unit - no need to continue doing the maths.
Both Raila and Ruto have NATIONAL SUPPORT - each easily getting 30-35%.
National support from all tribes - from all 47 counties.
Matiangi is political neophytes who at best will only fly amongst Mt kenya (mainly Kikuyu).
Outside he is nothing - you will need governors/mps/mcas battling for you camp say in Kwale - he is absent.
Kalonzo generally faces the same Matiangi mess.
To build national support is not easy.
The problem most Mt kenya leaders are too insular to build national support.
In short no need for MOASS unless I see Ruto versus Raila.
Ruto will be very happy to face Matiangi or Kalonzo or any other looser.
He has to be working on Plan A - facing Raila Odinga - Uhuru and Kikuyus seem bitter enough to try anything.
Ruto will encourage Matiangi to run so he can snatch Kalonzo.
Ruto has to work to get Kalonzo and Kambas as Plan C - if Kindiki fails to fly like its looking like - and if Raila bolt out last minute.
For Ruto plan A should be to win presidency without kikuyus and Raila - and that means finding replacement about 20% that Mt kenya have left has a void. He needs to play with Deputy Presidency for someone who can deliver 10% at least. MaDVD cant. Weta cant. Kalonzo could. Kindiki could. Then he will hunt for 10% by expanding areas he did badly - which was almost all counties outside Mt Kenya & Kalenjin - where Raila was beating him by 70% to 30%; he needs to flip that using incumbency.
Correction - Nyachae got 6% of the vote in 2002. Not 4%.
And Kalonzo got 9%, not 8%.
In essence, switching from Kalonzo to Matiang'i is a drop of 3%.
So why is WSR and his team running scared of Matiang'i when he brings less votes than Melon?
1) A Kalonzo candidature optically splits Kenya into Eastern vs Western. Kalonzo representing Eastern Kenya with their Mt Kenya cousins, while WSR representing the Western Alliance (RV + Western + Nyanza). In such a scenario, WSR clinches an easy win.
2) A Matiang'i candidature splits the Western Alliance that WSR is putting together (he intends to run on an ODM ticket with an ODM running mate). Matiang'i captures the Kisii vote + half of the Luhya vote while maintaining the Central Kenya vote.
3) Even if Kalonzo were to shift to WSR, Matiang'i polls better in Ukambani than WSR cos of no 4) below.
4) The electorate seems tired of the same old rigmarole of politicians (hence the low voter turnout in 2022). Matiang'i has never run for any office; is a fresh first time candidate who comes with a proven background of competence and execution. As in if he says he is doing something, the guy will do everything to make it happen. Magufuli style.
5) The Gen Z vote resonates and rhymes better with Matiang'i than with any other candidate.
HENCE the clear panic in the WSR camp
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Protest was just black swan thing.
London riots of 15yrs ago.
Black lives matters riots.
These are online inspired protests - by urban kids.
Politically I dont think it will go anywhere.
It already disintegrate into tribes.
And is pretty much Dead on Arrival.
Anyway it too early to be running tribal maths.
2022 - we have written about it - for acres of acres of online spaces
Weta was key for Ruto and he nailed it
Kalonzo kambas were unhappy with Kalonzo not getting at least deputy -
they must be raving now that again -
Kalonzo is being overlooked for Matiangi by the same kikuyus who promised to back them.
Beating combined Ruto-Raila is nearly impossible.
But Ruto failed to get Raila AU - and doesnt have position Raila would take now - maybe Deputy President - I doubt it will tickle him
The WSR - RAO dichotomy has been the dominant narrative since 2013 (basically a continuation of the Jubilee vs NASA/CORD).
But does it hold today? If ift does, how do we explain last year's protests which
1) were against WSR,
2) were not led by RAO, and
3) had NATIONAL SUPPORT (emphasis yours)??
In short, who is this, apart from WSR/RAO, that best represents the ideals of these protests?
Something in the national psyche has been changing and last year's protests were the evidence.
The Jubilee vs CORD dynamics as represented by UK/WSR on one side and RAO/Kalonzo on the other have shifted. Waves of these changing tides can even be seen in the 2022 elections. For example:
i) WSR got more votes in Bungoma than Rao did for the first time since 2007.
ii) WSR got 25% of the votes in Ukambani - even in his own home county of Kitui....from a high of 10-15% in 2013 and 2017 for the Jubilee side.
iii) Voter turnout in 2022 was the lowest it has been since 2002 elections.
In short, relying on the WSR/RAO dynamics to predict the future, when they couldn't even explain the 2024 protests, is myopic
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Black swan?
Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.
London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year. Black lives matter (2014 - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.
Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math. On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge. Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote.
As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up. At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?
In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over. Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput. Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot. Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.
The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished.
There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political.
Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?
Protest was just black swan thing.
London riots of 15yrs ago.
Black lives matters riots.
These are online inspired protests - by urban kids.
Politically I dont think it will go anywhere.
It already disintegrate into tribes.
And is pretty much Dead on Arrival.
Anyway it too early to be running tribal maths.
2022 - we have written about it - for acres of acres of online spaces
Weta was key for Ruto and he nailed it
Kalonzo kambas were unhappy with Kalonzo not getting at least deputy -
they must be raving now that again -
Kalonzo is being overlooked for Matiangi by the same kikuyus who promised to back them.
Beating combined Ruto-Raila is nearly impossible.
But Ruto failed to get Raila AU - and doesnt have position Raila would take now - maybe Deputy President - I doubt it will tickle him
The WSR - RAO dichotomy has been the dominant narrative since 2013 (basically a continuation of the Jubilee vs NASA/CORD).
But does it hold today? If ift does, how do we explain last year's protests which
1) were against WSR,
2) were not led by RAO, and
3) had NATIONAL SUPPORT (emphasis yours)??
In short, who is this, apart from WSR/RAO, that best represents the ideals of these protests?
Something in the national psyche has been changing and last year's protests were the evidence.
The Jubilee vs CORD dynamics as represented by UK/WSR on one side and RAO/Kalonzo on the other have shifted. Waves of these changing tides can even be seen in the 2022 elections. For example:
i) WSR got more votes in Bungoma than Rao did for the first time since 2007.
ii) WSR got 25% of the votes in Ukambani - even in his own home county of Kitui....from a high of 10-15% in 2013 and 2017 for the Jubilee side.
iii) Voter turnout in 2022 was the lowest it has been since 2002 elections.
In short, relying on the WSR/RAO dynamics to predict the future, when they couldn't even explain the 2024 protests, is myopic
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Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.
Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.
Black swan?
Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.
London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year. Black lives matter (2014 - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.
Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math. On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge. Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote.
As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up. At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?
In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over. Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput. Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot. Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.
The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished.
There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political.
Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?
-
2027?
Let's first wait for June/July. Scork may just decide that elections are in Aug 2026. Case is going through the filings and responses before hearing latest July.....
Needless to mention that whether its 2026 or 27, the 50% + 1 is likely to come into play for the first time ever.....I foresee many candidates running and joining hands in 2nd round....
Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.
Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.
Black swan?
Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.
London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year. Black lives matter (2014 - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.
Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math. On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge. Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote.
As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up. At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?
In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over. Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput. Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot. Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.
The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished.
There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political.
Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?
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I see you're one funny character, eti election next year.
You are into crazy theories.
2027?
Let's first wait for June/July. Scork may just decide that elections are in Aug 2026. Case is going through the filings and responses before hearing latest July.....
Needless to mention that whether its 2026 or 27, the 50% + 1 is likely to come into play for the first time ever.....I foresee many candidates running and joining hands in 2nd round....
Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.
Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.
Black swan?
Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.
London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year. Black lives matter (2014 - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.
Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math. On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge. Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote.
As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up. At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?
In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over. Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput. Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot. Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.
The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished.
There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political.
Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?
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Madvd is his on his way out.
Khalwale has already left.
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Crazy theories, eh?
Why dyu think there's all this heightened political activity with not even a byelection in sight?
The politicos know what's coming....just same way UK served 4yrs + 4 months in first term. And Scork gets to fight back against the hounding by the hired attack dogs AA/NV....
But I am funny. Lemme get back to my comedy
I see you're one funny character, eti election next year.
You are into crazy theories.
2027?
Let's first wait for June/July. Scork may just decide that elections are in Aug 2026. Case is going through the filings and responses before hearing latest July.....
Needless to mention that whether its 2026 or 27, the 50% + 1 is likely to come into play for the first time ever.....I foresee many candidates running and joining hands in 2nd round....
Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.
Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.
Black swan?
Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.
London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year. Black lives matter (2014 - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.
Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math. On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge. Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote.
As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up. At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?
In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over. Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput. Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot. Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.
The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished.
There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political.
Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?
-
Similar case by Omtatah was long dismissed.
You actually believe in Wanjigi silly lawyer of Piki piki Bonki;
Wenda wa simu
Crazy theories, eh?
Why dyu think there's all this heightened political activity with not even a byelection in sight?
The politicos know what's coming....just same way UK served 4yrs + 4 months in first term. And Scork gets to fight back against the hounding by the hired attack dogs AA/NV....
But I am funny. Lemme get back to my comedy
-
This is not a typical Kenyan election, this is Ruto facing a hostile ground like Moi in 2002. This is an election to remove Ruto and all the previous tribal metrics will not be applicable, today he are a shoe in the face, a first in Kenya. Ruto will be beaten by Matiangi or Kalonzo overwhelmingly, if the opposition unite, there will be no second round and Ruto will be a one term president. If they do not unite, there willl be a second round that Ruto may not even feature in.
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This election that will uproot Mt kenya from power for next few decades.
You miscalculated to take war to a president in yr 2 of his regime.
Wacha ile ya Moi ya 24yrs.
This one will be longer nightmare because demographically you're going down and others rising.
This is not a typical Kenyan election, this is Ruto facing a hostile ground like Moi in 2002. This is an election to remove Ruto and all the previous tribal metrics will not be applicable, today he are a shoe in the face, a first in Kenya. Ruto will be beaten by Matiangi or Kalonzo overwhelmingly, if the opposition unite, there will be no second round and Ruto will be a one term president. If they do not unite, there willl be a second round that Ruto may not even feature in.
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Keep dreaming and actually most Kikuyus do not even care who is president as long as it’s not Kasongo. I will personally wake up at 4AM to vote for a proven performer like Matiangi who is flawed but Kibaki like. Kalonzo was also part of the most successful regime in Kenya. Kasongo needs to go to prison with his cabal, worst president in Kenyan history including Moi.
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Hehehe,
Utaskia vile tuliskia 2007
And vile Raila rigging crew usikia.
Utamu
Keep dreaming and actually most Kikuyus do not even care who is president as long as it’s not Kasongo. I will personally wake up at 4AM to vote for a proven performer like Matiangi who is flawed but Kibaki like. Kalonzo was also part of the most successful regime in Kenya. Kasongo needs to go to prison with his cabal, worst president in Kenyan history including Moi.
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This coming election will be rigging free, every polling station will meet gen Z technology, everything will be broadcast live on social Media, if Ruto dares steal even one vote, he burns the country and he will be forcibly removed. This is how bad people want him out, he is actually lucky that people are letting him finish his term because Kenyans are generally peace loving. If I go tribal, my least favorite thing to do, how is he going to win without GenZ, mt Kenya, Kamba, Kisii and even Luhyas are on their way out? The Kamatusa vote is not even united, the Masai want out because of land issues so you are left with who? Luos, Kalenjins, Somali and half of coast? My friend, this election will shock you, it’s going to cause major tears. If it’s money, the opposition has major donors, mt Kenya alone can fund Matiangi to presidency.
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Kama una mishale million mbili - wacha kiburi
This coming election will be rigging free, every polling station will meet gen Z technology, everything will be broadcast live on social Media, if Ruto dares steal even one vote, he burns the country and he will be forcibly removed. This is how bad people want him out, he is actually lucky that people are letting him finish his term because Kenyans are generally peace loving. If I go tribal, my least favorite thing to do, how is he going to win without GenZ, mt Kenya, Kamba, Kisii and even Luhyas are on their way out? The Kamatusa vote is not even united, the Masai want out because of land issues so you are left with who? Luos, Kalenjins, Somali and half of coast? My friend, this election will shock you, it’s going to cause major tears. If it’s money, the opposition has major donors, mt Kenya alone can fund Matiangi to presidency.
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You are not selling fear to anyone, the kalenjins used to get away with intimidation but not anymore. I actually highly doubt that all Kalenjins are with Kasongo, I have seen what’s up Kalenjin groups that are extremely critical of this government and most Kalenjin counties are sewers of underdevelopment and corruption.
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If matiangi is given the ticket,Who will Jaluo vote?Matiangi or Ruto?
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Where Raila tells them.
It wont matter if Matiangi killed Luos under UhuRuto.
If matiangi is given the ticket,Who will Jaluo vote?Matiangi or Ruto?
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If Kenya was a perfect country, Matiangi would run deputized by Kalonzo or Kalonzo deputized by Matiangi, either of these combinations would send Kasongo home. In Kenya, they will all run and form coalitions in the second round. The guarantee is that if they all run, no one is winning in the first round.
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Agreed.
We are likely to see a runoff for the first time ever. Why?
Cos any sensible politician who wants to be prez in the next 5-15 years needs to start building a base. The current leadership (WSR,RAO, UK, Melon, MDVD, Gachagua) are where they are cos they ran prez campaign in the last 5-20years.
With the retirement of UK, planned retirement of WSR in 27 or 32, old age of RAO and Melon, any forward-looking politician has to run for prez in the next cycle, build a national base in preparation to be at the top (Prez/Running mate) in 5-10 years.
So yes - multiple candidates in 27 and form 2nd round coalitions.
If Kenya was a perfect country, Matiangi would run deputized by Kalonzo or Kalonzo deputized by Matiangi, either of these combinations would send Kasongo home. In Kenya, they will all run and form coalitions in the second round. The guarantee is that if they all run, no one is winning in the first round.
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Sioni,
2nd round coalition - is useless because you can switch deputy mid-stream.
So as always it will be President, deputy and PM - speakers as the prize.
Presidency is big prize.
Ruto has deputy+exit in 2032 to offer.
Raila has old age to offer.
Gachagua/Uhuru/mt kenya
Agreed.
We are likely to see a runoff for the first time ever. Why?
Cos any sensible politician who wants to be prez in the next 5-15 years needs to start building a base. The current leadership (WSR,RAO, UK, Melon, MDVD, Gachagua) are where they are cos they ran prez campaign in the last 5-20years.
With the retirement of UK, planned retirement of WSR in 27 or 32, old age of RAO and Melon, any forward-looking politician has to run for prez in the next cycle, build a national base in preparation to be at the top (Prez/Running mate) in 5-10 years.
So yes - multiple candidates in 27 and form 2nd round coalitions.
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Can switch? Sorry, but there's no switching running mates in 2nd round.
That said, 2nd round coalitions will revolve around Speaker (NA + Senate), PM and cabinet positions. Enough meat to go around - especially as the 3rd & 4th candidates will have been knocked out.
Sioni,
2nd round coalition - is useless because you can switch deputy mid-stream.
So as always it will be President, deputy and PM - speakers as the prize.
Presidency is big prize.
Ruto has deputy+exit in 2032 to offer.
Raila has old age to offer.
Gachagua/Uhuru/mt kenya
Agreed.
We are likely to see a runoff for the first time ever. Why?
Cos any sensible politician who wants to be prez in the next 5-15 years needs to start building a base. The current leadership (WSR,RAO, UK, Melon, MDVD, Gachagua) are where they are cos they ran prez campaign in the last 5-20years.
With the retirement of UK, planned retirement of WSR in 27 or 32, old age of RAO and Melon, any forward-looking politician has to run for prez in the next cycle, build a national base in preparation to be at the top (Prez/Running mate) in 5-10 years.
So yes - multiple candidates in 27 and form 2nd round coalitions.
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Ruto will win round 1
Can switch? Sorry, but there's no switching running mates in 2nd round.
That said, 2nd round coalitions will revolve around Speaker (NA + Senate), PM and cabinet positions. Enough meat to go around - especially as the 3rd & 4th candidates will have been knocked out.
Sioni,
2nd round coalition - is useless because you can switch deputy mid-stream.
So as always it will be President, deputy and PM - speakers as the prize.
Presidency is big prize.
Ruto has deputy+exit in 2032 to offer.
Raila has old age to offer.
Gachagua/Uhuru/mt kenya
Agreed.
We are likely to see a runoff for the first time ever. Why?
Cos any sensible politician who wants to be prez in the next 5-15 years needs to start building a base. The current leadership (WSR,RAO, UK, Melon, MDVD, Gachagua) are where they are cos they ran prez campaign in the last 5-20years.
With the retirement of UK, planned retirement of WSR in 27 or 32, old age of RAO and Melon, any forward-looking politician has to run for prez in the next cycle, build a national base in preparation to be at the top (Prez/Running mate) in 5-10 years.
So yes - multiple candidates in 27 and form 2nd round coalitions.
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Yes you cant switch.
Which is why the last 3 elections has been nailed on pre-election pact.
post-election is handshake.
Can switch? Sorry, but there's no switching running mates in 2nd round.
That said, 2nd round coalitions will revolve around Speaker (NA + Senate), PM and cabinet positions. Enough meat to go around - especially as the 3rd & 4th candidates will have been knocked out.
Sioni,
2nd round coalition - is useless because you can switch deputy mid-stream.
So as always it will be President, deputy and PM - speakers as the prize.
Presidency is big prize.
Ruto has deputy+exit in 2032 to offer.
Raila has old age to offer.
Gachagua/Uhuru/mt kenya
Agreed.
We are likely to see a runoff for the first time ever. Why?
Cos any sensible politician who wants to be prez in the next 5-15 years needs to start building a base. The current leadership (WSR,RAO, UK, Melon, MDVD, Gachagua) are where they are cos they ran prez campaign in the last 5-20years.
With the retirement of UK, planned retirement of WSR in 27 or 32, old age of RAO and Melon, any forward-looking politician has to run for prez in the next cycle, build a national base in preparation to be at the top (Prez/Running mate) in 5-10 years.
So yes - multiple candidates in 27 and form 2nd round coalitions.
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Ruto has a simple task.
Replace Mt kenya - or at least kikuyus.
He has 30% of national vote intact - or 60% of Kenya Kwanza intact.
He is struggling to get 20% of national - 40% of his 2022 vote.
He has DPORK to give to someone who gives him 10% of national vote.
Then look for 10% nationally by improving on 2022 in many areas where he was doing 30% against Azimio 70%.
Remember as always Mt kenya is albatross outside it.
For Ruto 2022 is simple - Kindiki get 10%; or Kalonzo 10%; or Raila Luo 10%;
Then he hunt for 10% by flipping ODM zones outside LUO to get 70% v 30%.
Ruto will win round 1
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Last 3 elections we had candidates who had been running for prez for over 10-20 years. Rao since 97, UK since 02, Melon since 07, WSR since 2010 referendum - hence easy to identify the front-runner in each coalition.
And even with these experienced candidates, the margin over the 50% hurdle has been less than 1%!
2027 is the defining moment for candidates that will dominate Kenyan politics for the next 10-15years as WSR/Melon/RAO are on their way out
Yes you cant switch.
Which is why the last 3 elections has been nailed on pre-election pact.
post-election is handshake.
Can switch? Sorry, but there's no switching running mates in 2nd round.
That said, 2nd round coalitions will revolve around Speaker (NA + Senate), PM and cabinet positions. Enough meat to go around - especially as the 3rd & 4th candidates will have been knocked out.
Sioni,
2nd round coalition - is useless because you can switch deputy mid-stream.
So as always it will be President, deputy and PM - speakers as the prize.
Presidency is big prize.
Ruto has deputy+exit in 2032 to offer.
Raila has old age to offer.
Gachagua/Uhuru/mt kenya
Agreed.
We are likely to see a runoff for the first time ever. Why?
Cos any sensible politician who wants to be prez in the next 5-15 years needs to start building a base. The current leadership (WSR,RAO, UK, Melon, MDVD, Gachagua) are where they are cos they ran prez campaign in the last 5-20years.
With the retirement of UK, planned retirement of WSR in 27 or 32, old age of RAO and Melon, any forward-looking politician has to run for prez in the next cycle, build a national base in preparation to be at the top (Prez/Running mate) in 5-10 years.
So yes - multiple candidates in 27 and form 2nd round coalitions.
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2027 hakuna kazi hapo.
2032 yes.
Big problem for anti-Ruto forces - you need to unite everyone to have a chance.
One person breaks for Ruto - it over before it begins.
Last 3 elections we had candidates who had been running for prez for over 10-20 years. Rao since 97, UK since 02, Melon since 07, WSR since 2010 referendum - hence easy to identify the front-runner in each coalition.
And even with these experienced candidates, the margin over the 50% hurdle has been less than 1%!
2027 is the defining moment for candidates that will dominate Kenyan politics for the next 10-15years as WSR/Melon/RAO are on their way out
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Consider Raila-Kikuyus vs Ruto-Kalonzo
Ruto has a simple task.
Replace Mt kenya - or at least kikuyus.
He has 30% of national vote intact - or 60% of Kenya Kwanza intact.
He is struggling to get 20% of national - 40% of his 2022 vote.
He has DPORK to give to someone who gives him 10% of national vote.
Then look for 10% nationally by improving on 2022 in many areas where he was doing 30% against Azimio 70%.
Remember as always Mt kenya is albatross outside it.
For Ruto 2022 is simple - Kindiki get 10%; or Kalonzo 10%; or Raila Luo 10%;
Then he hunt for 10% by flipping ODM zones outside LUO to get 70% v 30%.
Ruto will win round 1
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I hear you on the need for anti-WSR to unite while WSR just needs to nab one.
That said, WSR must win round one. He cannot hope to form coalitions in round 2.
Runoff/Round 2 for incumbents worldwide are a losing proposition - the incumbents typically lose runofffs. Cos it means the anti-incumbent sentiment is already over 51%.
2027 hakuna kazi hapo.
2032 yes.
Big problem for anti-Ruto forces - you need to unite everyone to have a chance.
One person breaks for Ruto - it over before it begins.
Last 3 elections we had candidates who had been running for prez for over 10-20 years. Rao since 97, UK since 02, Melon since 07, WSR since 2010 referendum - hence easy to identify the front-runner in each coalition.
And even with these experienced candidates, the margin over the 50% hurdle has been less than 1%!
2027 is the defining moment for candidates that will dominate Kenyan politics for the next 10-15years as WSR/Melon/RAO are on their way out
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Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
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I don't know what you mean Raila should wreck the government? Handshake already broke up Ruto-Kikuyu alliance. Ruto is now working overtime to wreck ODM.
Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
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They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.
Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick
Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
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Yes outside Luo Nyanza, Ruto, need to wreck ODM, in KAMATUSA+COAST+NEP; He need to cut a deal with Joho outside ODM.
Gusii seem to be going with Matiangi.
Luhyas- Lower will stick with Raila.
I don't know what you mean Raila should wreck the government? Handshake already broke up Ruto-Kikuyu alliance. Ruto is now working overtime to wreck ODM.
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They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.
Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick
Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
1) 10 Kalenjin allied counties.
How can you count Nairobi for Ruto?GEMA which helped Ruto win Nairobi is gone.
2) URP had 76Mps courtesy of alliance with GEMA and uhuru allied constituencies.If you remove GEMA,URP chances of winning more than 70 constituencies is gone.That means Ruto cannot have the speakers at senate or parliament.He is useless.
3 ) The 2010 referendum had Ruto,Moi and the church.If the total vote was 31%,Just remove the church vote and assume it was 5%.He is Down to 27%.
4) From 1992 1997 2002 2009 referendum The Kalenjin vote even with its allied tribes cannot exceed 35%.
If Raila odinga will be on the ballot,UDA will not have agents in KAMBA LUHYA LUO GEMA KISII areas across the country which makes rigging for Ruto difficult.Being a UDA agent will be a criminal offense.
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I don't know what you mean Raila should wreck the government? Handshake already broke up Ruto-Kikuyu alliance. Ruto is now working overtime to wreck ODM.
Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
1) Out of Ruto 2022 7M votes,50% was GEMA.Half of Mps senators and Govs were from GEMA.
Ruto is starting the 2027 elections with 3MN votes and less than 10 counties.
2) Out of Raila 6.8MN votes,20% or less was Kamba.He has more solid support across kenya than Ruto.supporting Ruto means killing ODM.What does Raila gain by killing ODM?He becomes politically useless.If Raila is on the ballot,Ruto will be number 3.That said,Rutos agents will not be allowed beyond rift valley.You will have Gachagua kalonzo Matiangi hunt him on one side while raila jaluo will hunt him on the other side.
Did you see Ruto in Mp were funeral?It turned out to be an ODM mobilisation event.The death of were before ruto luo visit speaks volume.Infact wanga and kaluma wailing and blaming ruto gov speaks volume.The jaluo go ahead to hit ruto with a shoe while their leaders stay away.If Raila is supporting ruto,Why did he skip Ruto political tour?
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1) The 2010 referendum math is so way back, that it's irrelevant today. Not to mention that the 31% included the anti-kadhi courts xtians + other renegades
2) We head to 2013, but instead of posting prez election results (51%) we are now counting MPs??
3) WSR got 51% (50.5%) in the 2022 prez election. Approx half of that is gone with Gachagua. Leaving him with 25%. Not the 35-40%.
4) Assume that WSR an additional 10% by cannibalizing ODM votes (Maa + Somali + Coast + Western). That gets him to 35%.
5) Kalenjin counties had the highest turnout in 2022. Meaning that WSR is unlikely to get a turnout boost in 2027. In fact, WSR percentage vote is likelier to come down as other regions improve their turnout. Let the impact of this be zero. Still leaving WSR at 35%
6) Melon with his 9 to 10% gets him to 45%. And that's assuming melon can deliver his whole Ukambani. And that the little western votes (MDVD + Weta) don't back out as Melon will have overtaken them. All in all, that puts WSR at 45%.
Conclusion: Without RAO, WSR is not winning round one.
They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.
Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick
Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
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1)2010-Coalitions matter – Every win rests on strategic alliances – Ruto has led and won with 30% support; Kalonzo has never led above 8%.
2) 2013 baseline – URP vs. TNA were nearly neck-and-neck (70% vs. 80%), proving Ruto, with 40-50 Kalenjin mps managed to get 20 more across the country.
3) 2022 performance – Ruto netted 80% in Mt. Kenya; Raila grabbed 20% (~3 m of 7 m votes, ~43% of Ruto’s total -21% of National vote)
4) 2027 target – Ruto starts with premises that has lost +21% (Mt Kenya) and is at 30%.
5) Plan A – Kindiki fight-back in Mt Kenya & organically grow elsewhere.
i) Mt. Kenya East & scared RV diaspora may vote “peace” vote - giving Ruto 1/3 of 80% that voted for him (≈ 7%).
ii) Penetrate Raila’s strongholds & ANY GOV IN POWER (KAMATUSA, Coast, Somali regions), where Raila won 70% to 30% - so far its looking good.
I havent run the numbers but if election are held Ruto will improve from Turkana, West Pokot, Narok, Kajiado, Samburu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Tana River, Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa.
If you work on improving registrations & turn outs (aka RIGGING) - that is enough to get you 13%.
6) Plan B - Ruto is also pursuing Raila's ODM merger. The AU was big wrench and he needs to find something Raila can do. If this materalize - Raila's easily has 30-35% and Ruto's 30% - combine is easy 60%.
7) Plan C - Kindiki backfires, Raila backfires- Ruto will need to find Kalonzo or give Luhya DPORK - and work on getting 10% from Luhya - like get all Luhya votes.
Knowing how Ruto operates - he is going to be pursuing all those options.
1) The 2010 referendum math is so way back, that it's irrelevant today. Not to mention that the 31% included the anti-kadhi courts xtians + other renegades
2) We head to 2013, but instead of posting prez election results (51%) we are now counting MPs??
3) WSR got 51% (50.5%) in the 2022 prez election. Approx half of that is gone with Gachagua. Leaving him with 25%. Not the 35-40%.
4) Assume that WSR an additional 10% by cannibalizing ODM votes (Maa + Somali + Coast + Western). That gets him to 35%.
5) Kalenjin counties had the highest turnout in 2022. Meaning that WSR is unlikely to get a turnout boost in 2027. In fact, WSR percentage vote is likelier to come down as other regions improve their turnout. Let the impact of this be zero. Still leaving WSR at 35%
6) Melon with his 9 to 10% gets him to 45%. And that's assuming melon can deliver his whole Ukambani. And that the little western votes (MDVD + Weta) don't back out as Melon will have overtaken them. All in all, that puts WSR at 45%.
Conclusion: Without RAO, WSR is not winning round one.
They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.
Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick
Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.
2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.
3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.
This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.
MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.
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Scenario 1) If Gachagua Matiangi back Kalonzo,
Then Raila is on the ballot with his Jaluo 50% Luhya 40% and Coast 40%.
Where will Ruto get votes outside Rift valley?
Scenario 2) Incase we have the Scenario 1,Ruto will be locked out from Mt Kenya Ukambani Nyanza Western Coast.He will not be able to rig in those constituencies.His agents will be spectators.Police officers will stay away to maintain law and order and avoid chaos.
Incase of Scenario 1 + Scenario 2,Kalonzo will win or get 48%.There is a high probability ruto will be number 3 in that election like Nowayhaha says because if Ruto has lost 50% of his 2022 vote and Raila has maintained his strongholds apart from Kalonzo,It means Ruto is below 30% national vote.
IMPORTANT POINT.
The GEMA diaspora in Coast Western Ukambani contributed to Ruto vote.It maybe about 10%.The Kamba diaspora contributed to Raila vote alot in Nairobi and coast.A combination of Gema and Kamba diaspora countrywide contributes to Kalonzo Matiangi vote countrywide by 30%+ in Western and Coast and tilts the landscape in Nairobi.They ABSOLUTELY dont need Raila.
How will Ruto handle being Number 3 in 2027?
He will be massacred at the ballot.Raila knows this fact and he will start sabotaging him until early next year when he officially dumps him.
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Ruto still has the Kikuyu nation if Raila runs. Ruto will have Kimani Ichungwah as his deputy and serve as Ruto's successor from 2032 to 2042.
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You seriously think Ruto and Raila are fools - and you're so smart.
That they can just run for it sake - without do basic ethnic modelling and maths.
Kalonzo+Gachagua+Matiangi - at very best will score 35%- maybe 40%.
Ruto wins at 60%.
Raila is only running under one condition - if Kalonzo+Matiangi+Gachagua+Kenyatta run to him with a ticket on their HAND - written ANYBODY BUT RUTO - BABA SAVE US.
High chance of Kenyatta-Gachagua-matiangi backing Raila - Kalonzo would be hard pressed to step down again.
If not Raila like everyone else will do the sensible thing - back GOV and continue making billions.
Nobody in gov now will go and back opposition.
Almost everyone is in gov - except those 3-4 idlers (Kalonzo, Matiangi, Gachagua, Kenyatta)
Scenario 1) If Gachagua Matiangi back Kalonzo,
Then Raila is on the ballot with his Jaluo 50% Luhya 40% and Coast 40%.
Where will Ruto get votes outside Rift valley?
Scenario 2) Incase we have the Scenario 1,Ruto will be locked out from Mt Kenya Ukambani Nyanza Western Coast.He will not be able to rig in those constituencies.His agents will be spectators.Police officers will stay away to maintain law and order and avoid chaos.
Incase of Scenario 1 + Scenario 2,Kalonzo will win or get 48%.There is a high probability ruto will be number 3 in that election like Nowayhaha says because if Ruto has lost 50% of his 2022 vote and Raila has maintained his strongholds apart from Kalonzo,It means Ruto is below 30% national vote.
IMPORTANT POINT.
The GEMA diaspora in Coast Western Ukambani contributed to Ruto vote.It maybe about 10%.The Kamba diaspora contributed to Raila vote alot in Nairobi and coast.A combination of Gema and Kamba diaspora countrywide contributes to Kalonzo Matiangi vote countrywide by 30%+ in Western and Coast and tilts the landscape in Nairobi.They ABSOLUTELY dont need Raila.
How will Ruto handle being Number 3 in 2027?
He will be massacred at the ballot.Raila knows this fact and he will start sabotaging him until early next year when he officially dumps him.