Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on January 17, 2023, 12:22:24 PM
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https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/asia/article/2001465385/china-records-1st-recent-population-decline-as-births-plunge
Look like China max pop will be 1.4billion.
India also approaching replacement rate - should max out at 1.7b.
Kenya will likely max out at 65 million somewhere before 2040.
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Someone here was mentioning Kenya hitting 100 million. Nothing like that. Everything has an end.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/asia/article/2001465385/china-records-1st-recent-population-decline-as-births-plunge
Look like China max pop will be 1.4billion.
India also approaching replacement rate - should max out at 1.7b.
Kenya will likely max out at 65 million somewhere before 2040.
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Yes, kenya TFR - total fertility rate is two years from going below 3 percent.When we hit around 2.1 percent - that is when population basically stop growing.
Looking at kenya data - we are losing 0.1 fertility rate every year - so we are just a decade from hitting replacement level.
Pending Somalis and other northern communities growing faster - we should generally hit 60m by 2030 - then generally slow down completely around 65-70m.
“Replacement level fertility” is the total fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration.
China now has gone below replacement level - and are in negative territory like Japan and some european countries.
The great thing - kenya is about to economic take off - 2030 is definitely our take off year.
India is taking off now...economically.
Someone here was mentioning Kenya hitting 100 million. Nothing like that. Everything has an end.
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Someone here was mentioning Kenya hitting 100 million. Nothing like that. Everything has an end.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/asia/article/2001465385/china-records-1st-recent-population-decline-as-births-plunge
Look like China max pop will be 1.4billion.
India also approaching replacement rate - should max out at 1.7b.
Kenya will likely max out at 65 million somewhere before 2040.
all projections show kenya hitting 84 million by 2050 andx100 million by 2100. stop the hogwash that kenya population will pick at 60 million. it won't. we are st 57 million already
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https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/KE
at 1.5 million births per year kenya will hit 65 soon and go on to chase 2050. Kenyans still have 2 kids in places like Central and in other places 4 ..
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Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.
Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.
all projections show kenya hitting 84 million by 2050 andx100 million by 2100. stop the hogwash that kenya population will pick at 60 million. it won't. we are st 57 million already
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At 2 kids pop stabilizes - as you're likely to lose two grandparents - at one kid like China/Japan - then you start the decline.
https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/KE
at 1.5 million births per year kenya will hit 65 soon and go on to chase 2050. Kenyans still have 2 kids in places like Central and in other places 4 ..
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https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN
If you check china...they got below TFR 3 - in 1978 - at around 800m - hit 1.3m in early 2000s - and for last 20yrs - it been around 1.3-1.4b - hardly growing
Now the decline start.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/17/chinas-population-falls-for-first-time-in-more-than-60-years
Projection got it a decade wrong...
Fuxian, an obstetrics and gynaecology researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and expert on China’s population changes, said the decline in population was occurring almost a decade earlier than the country’s government and the United Nations had projected
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In some Mt Kenya regions schools are being closed due to lack of pupils.
Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.
Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.
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Yes Muranga are paying women to give birth.
Counties with the least fertility rates include Nyamira at 2.7 per cent, Kirinyaga at 2.7 per cent, Kiambu at 2.7 per cent, and Makueni at 2.8 per cent.
Those counties are 5yrs from reaching 2.1 - then population will stabilize - people in those counties will become richer.
"Assuming there are no migration flows and that mortality rates remain unchanged, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman generates broad stability of population: it is also referred to as the “replacement fertility rate”, as it ensures replacement of the woman and her partner with another 0.1 children per ..."
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In some Mt Kenya regions schools are being closed due to lack of pupils.
Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.
Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.
due to population transfer. most kikuyus have left for South rift Valley and coast
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Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.
Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.
all projections show kenya hitting 84 million by 2050 andx100 million by 2100. stop the hogwash that kenya population will pick at 60 million. it won't. we are st 57 million already
current population is 57 million
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Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.
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Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.
1.5 million born yearly
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Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.
1.5 million born yearly
How many kenyans die annually..registered births are 1.1m...deaths 0.2m.The rest are unregistered
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Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.
1.5 million born yearly
How many kenyans die annually..registered births are 1.1m...deaths 0.2m.The rest are unregistered
estimates are usually close to census ..so 57 is current estimate
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Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates
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Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates
you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA
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Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates
you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA
Kenyan plato is NOT analytical at all. What is the problem? Do you live in the west or in kenya?
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Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates
you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA
Kenyan plato is NOT analytical at all. What is the problem? Do you live in the west or in kenya?
I hate being fed lies to fit a certain narrative
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Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates
you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA
check knbs...in economic survey..they project population..some of these things are beyond your paygrade
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Keani knbs has monopoly of data regarding kenya. united nations should have better data. I would assume their models for projections are way better than the ones Akina kamau and kerotich are running in govt offices
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Keani knbs has monopoly of data regarding kenya. united nations should have better data. I would assume their models for projections are way better than the ones Akina kamau and kerotich are running in govt offices
No the united nation strictly depends on gov...KNBS are final.There was a problem with 2009 data where somalis rigged the census data...knbs corrected to 39m from 42m but court overruled. Most of the wrong projections emanate from there...in 2019 census this was fixed to 47.5m.Dont argue about things you barely understand