Author Topic: china hit max population and declines by 850,000  (Read 2059 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« on: January 17, 2023, 12:22:24 PM »
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/asia/article/2001465385/china-records-1st-recent-population-decline-as-births-plunge


Look like China max pop will be 1.4billion.

India also approaching replacement rate - should max out at 1.7b.

Kenya will likely max out at 65 million somewhere before 2040.

Offline Kadudu

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2023, 12:59:56 PM »
Someone here was mentioning Kenya hitting 100 million. Nothing like that. Everything has an end.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/asia/article/2001465385/china-records-1st-recent-population-decline-as-births-plunge


Look like China max pop will be 1.4billion.

India also approaching replacement rate - should max out at 1.7b.

Kenya will likely max out at 65 million somewhere before 2040.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2023, 01:12:20 PM »
The great thing - kenya is about to economic take off - 2030 is definitely our take off year.

India is taking off now...economically.

Someone here was mentioning Kenya hitting 100 million. Nothing like that. Everything has an end.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2023, 05:39:32 PM »
Someone here was mentioning Kenya hitting 100 million. Nothing like that. Everything has an end.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/asia/article/2001465385/china-records-1st-recent-population-decline-as-births-plunge


Look like China max pop will be 1.4billion.

India also approaching replacement rate - should max out at 1.7b.

Kenya will likely max out at 65 million somewhere before 2040.

all projections show kenya hitting 84 million by 2050 andx100 million by 2100. stop the hogwash that kenya population will pick at 60 million. it won't. we are st 57 million already

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2023, 05:45:07 PM »
https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/KE

at 1.5 million births per year kenya will hit 65 soon and go on to chase 2050. Kenyans still have 2 kids in places like Central and in other places 4 ..

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2023, 05:48:55 PM »
Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.

Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.

all projections show kenya hitting 84 million by 2050 andx100 million by 2100. stop the hogwash that kenya population will pick at 60 million. it won't. we are st 57 million already

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2023, 05:50:30 PM »
At 2 kids pop stabilizes - as you're likely to lose two grandparents - at one kid like China/Japan - then you start the decline.
https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/KE

at 1.5 million births per year kenya will hit 65 soon and go on to chase 2050. Kenyans still have 2 kids in places like Central and in other places 4 ..

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2023, 06:17:55 PM »
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN

If you check china...they got below TFR 3 - in 1978 - at around 800m - hit 1.3m in early 2000s - and for last 20yrs - it been around 1.3-1.4b - hardly growing

Now the decline start.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/17/chinas-population-falls-for-first-time-in-more-than-60-years

Offline Kadudu

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2023, 06:58:55 PM »
In some Mt Kenya regions schools are being closed due to lack of pupils.

Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.

Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2023, 08:58:55 PM »

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2023, 10:49:28 PM »
In some Mt Kenya regions schools are being closed due to lack of pupils.

Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.

Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.

due to population transfer. most kikuyus have left for South rift Valley and coast

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2023, 10:50:51 PM »
Kenya population is around 52m - pay attention to pop pyramid - and see population growth is tapering. You can also check the TFR is dropping.
Kenya pop will be likely 57m or less in 2030.
I expect us to hit plateau from 2040 at 65m.

Places like Muranga, Kiambu,Nairobi, Kirinyanga and Nyeri already on pop stability stage.

all projections show kenya hitting 84 million by 2050 andx100 million by 2100. stop the hogwash that kenya population will pick at 60 million. it won't. we are st 57 million already

current population is 57 million

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2023, 11:09:33 PM »
Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2023, 11:10:18 PM »
Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.

1.5 million born yearly

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2023, 11:20:40 PM »
Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.

1.5 million born yearly
How many kenyans die annually..registered births are 1.1m...deaths 0.2m.The rest are unregistered

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2023, 12:14:31 AM »
Census was done in 2019...47.5m..three years later we are 51m..because we have 1.5m new born..roughly 0.4m die annually..roughly 1.1m.

1.5 million born yearly
How many kenyans die annually..registered births are 1.1m...deaths 0.2m.The rest are unregistered

estimates are usually close to census ..so 57 is current estimate

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2023, 12:26:56 AM »
Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2023, 12:42:42 AM »
Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates

you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA

Offline sema

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2023, 03:40:46 AM »
Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates

you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA


Kenyan plato is NOT analytical at all. What is the problem? Do you live in the west or in kenya?

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: china hit max population and declines by 850,000
« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2023, 05:20:02 AM »
Estimate by who..some of these things are beyond your level. Check knbs estimates

you moron. I am using un estimates ..specifically UNFPA


Kenyan plato is NOT analytical at all. What is the problem? Do you live in the west or in kenya?

I hate being fed lies to fit a certain narrative