Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on December 28, 2022, 12:29:31 PM
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There is a change that's happening. I think Babu Owino can become governor Nairobi in 2027,He is maturing having won Embakasi MP twice. Sakaja is making peace with Luos in Nairobi by striking political deals with ODM...I think if Raila was to support Sakaja in 2027 VS Ruto/Rigathi...He would win by 60%.He is none divisive figure and can easily sell.
Sakaja needs to have a meeting with Uhuru and Raila,to protect him from MCAs,Ruto and Gachagua....He also needs to increase his security.
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You and Rv pundit come from the same school of thought. Sakaja will be impeached even before 2027 . His association with ODM will make him kiss goodbye to Politics . In 2027 he was just rescued by Ruto , they used 2017 Sonko Matrix and calculations to win Governorship .
Where they used GEMA as a base and top up from your tribe to win the votes.
Sakaja does not have resources nor a political base to win General Elections. He needs another 20 years to even think of vying and he is a personal friend.
There is a change that's happening. I think Babu Owino can become governor Nairobi in 2027,He is maturing having won Embakasi MP twice. Sakaja is making peace with Luos in Nairobi by striking political deals with ODM...I think if Raila was to support Sakaja in 2027 VS Ruto/Rigathi...He would win by 60%.He is none divisive figure and can easily sell.
Sakaja needs to have a meeting with Uhuru and Raila,to protect him from MCAs,Ruto and Gachagua....He also needs to increase his security.
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He is front runner in 2032 if Ruto decides to retire.
Sakaja starts with Luhyas - and you can bet being kalenjin - he will get support of kalenjin.
It really btw him and yet to be identified Mt kenya politician who can sell outside and inside Mt kenya.
Election in 2027 is absolutely unnecessary.
2032 - Sakaja if he can win Nairobi again - build bridges Luos, Luhyas then nail kalenjin - he will be home and dry against GEMA candidate.
And he can easily do that.
In 2027 -MaDVD and Weta will still control Luhya politics but by 2032 - they will retire with Ruto.
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You and Rv pundit come from the same school of thought. Sakaja will be impeached even before 2027 . His association with ODM will make him kiss goodbye to Politics . In 2027 he was just rescued by Ruto , they used 2017 Sonko Matrix and calculations to win Governorship .
Where they used GEMA as a base and top up from your tribe to win the votes.
Sakaja does not have resources nor a political base to win General Elections. He needs another 20 years to even think of vying and he is a personal friend.
There is a change that's happening. I think Babu Owino can become governor Nairobi in 2027,He is maturing having won Embakasi MP twice. Sakaja is making peace with Luos in Nairobi by striking political deals with ODM...I think if Raila was to support Sakaja in 2027 VS Ruto/Rigathi...He would win by 60%.He is none divisive figure and can easily sell.
Sakaja needs to have a meeting with Uhuru and Raila,to protect him from MCAs,Ruto and Gachagua....He also needs to increase his security.
(1) I shared a thought of Raila's options in 2027.So why are you getting personal or associating me with other people.I think wisdom dictates you share your point of view and it end there.
(2) Nairobi governor has alot of Money.Parking fees Land rates, licenses cess.I think Sakaja makes over 10MN a day on a weekday.I think a commissioned report did show Kidero stole I think 20BN as governor while his son was found with 2BN.
As long as he is dishing money to ODM MCAs and a section of UDA MCAs,It's hard to impeach him.Thats what governor Mutua/current foreign affairs CS used to do,In Machakos a governor steals cess from 500 ballast trucks,that's about 1.5MN daily and a huge list of ghost workers,if you share that loot,you govern comfortably.
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Ruto use to give out more than 20m everyday as opposition candidate fighting Uhuru. For 5yrs.
The amount of money used to buy the presidency is STAGGERING.
Sakaja is smart enough to know he wont be ready soon.
He will retain Nairobi governorship and bid his time for 2032.
Anyone fighting Ruto in 2027 should automatically be taken to Mathare Mental Hospital to make sure we are dealing with sound mind.
I expect the most serious candidate to be Prof Wajackoyah
(2) Nairobi governor has alot of Money.Parking fees Land rates, licenses cess.I think Sakaja makes over 10MN a day on a weekday.I think a commissioned report did show Kidero stole I think 20BN as governor while his son was found with 2BN.
As long as he is dishing money to ODM MCAs and a section of UDA MCAs,It's hard to impeach him.Thats what governor Mutua/current foreign affairs CS used to do,In Machakos a governor steals cess from 500 ballast trucks,that's about 1.5MN daily and a huge list of ghost workers,if you share that loot,you govern comfortably.
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He is front runner in 2032 if Ruto decides to retire.
Sakaja starts with Luhyas - and you can bet being kalenjin - he will get support of kalenjin.
It really btw him and yet to be identified Mt kenya politician who can sell outside and inside Mt kenya.
Election in 2027 is absolutely unnecessary.
2032 - Sakaja if he can win Nairobi again - build bridges Luos, Luhyas then nail kalenjin - he will be home and dry against GEMA candidate.
And he can easily do that.
In 2027 -MaDVD and Weta will still control Luhya politics but by 2032 - they will retire with Ruto.
Who will be GEMA leader?Ndindi or Ichungwa?
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Ruto will continue to be GEMA leader until Gachagua or Ndidi or Ichungwa or Kindiki take over in 2028.
For now until 2027 - Ruto will not allow a GEMA leader - Maybe Gachagua will become a Nyeri leader by then.
Gachangua if he is smart - will have headstart in 2028 - if he is a fool - he will be crushed now - and Ndidi Nyoro or Ichungwa will get headstart.
Gachangua will be finished Dr Karanja style - by fellow Mt kenya.
Who will be GEMA leader?Ndindi or Ichungwa?
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Ruto use to give out more than 20m everyday as opposition candidate fighting Uhuru.
Sakaja is smart enough to know he wont be ready soon.
He will retain Nairobi governorship and bid his time for 2032.
Anyone fighting Ruto in 2027 should automatically be taken to Mathare Mental Hospital to make sure we are dealing with sound mind.
I expect the most serious candidate to be Prof Wajackoyah
(2) Nairobi governor has alot of Money.Parking fees Land rates, licenses cess.I think Sakaja makes over 10MN a day on a weekday.I think a commissioned report did show Kidero stole I think 20BN as governor while his son was found with 2BN.
As long as he is dishing money to ODM MCAs and a section of UDA MCAs,It's hard to impeach him.Thats what governor Mutua/current foreign affairs CS used to do,In Machakos a governor steals cess from 500 ballast trucks,that's about 1.5MN daily and a huge list of ghost workers,if you share that loot,you govern comfortably.
Whoever Raila will support in 2027 will become president.
Ruto won with just 200k votes.If Raila and kalonzo give Sakaja the free kick,Luo luhya coast,Ukambani,I have no doubt Sakaja will win against Ruto/Gachagua.
Money is never a problem for a serious presidential contender.There are too many people willing to fund you in and outside GOK.
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Raila will support Ruto - after being paid a billion Kshs to sell the remaining few Luo votes. By then Ruto will have eaten more than half of Raila base in Luo, Gusii, Coast and Maa. The rest dont have the money.
Presidency sio MCHEZO nani.
Nobody will give you the money you need in politics - except the last minute when you candidate is viable. That is when money flows.
It's no joke. That 200K Ruto won - was incredible - considering he went against gov machinery and opposition machinery.
Whoever Raila will support in 2027 will become president.
Ruto won with just 200k votes.If Raila and kalonzo give Sakaja the free kick,Luo luhya coast,Ukambani,I have no doubt Sakaja will win against Ruto/Gachagua.
Money is never a problem for a serious presidential contender.There are too many people willing to fund you in and outside GOK.
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Raila would have loved to have a handshake with Ruto. Ruto doesnt want anything to do with Raila.
Ruto can handshake Kalonzo or any other politician but not Raila.
As we speak Raila wants to push for another BBI 4 . This will be Rutos nightmare come 2023 and 2024 . The few Kalenjins like you supporting Raila will desert Raila . It will be fierce to an extent of tearing the country down.
Rutos beed with Raila is personal and goes back to 1999.
Raila will support Ruto - after being paid a billion Kshs to sell the remaining few Luo votes. By then Ruto will have eaten more than half of Raila base in Luo, Gusii, Coast and Maa. The rest dont have the money.
Presidency sio MCHEZO nani.
Nobody will give you the money you need in politics - except the last minute when you candidate is viable. That is when money flows.
It's no joke. That 200K Ruto won - was incredible - considering he went against gov machinery and opposition machinery.
Whoever Raila will support in 2027 will become president.
Ruto won with just 200k votes.If Raila and kalonzo give Sakaja the free kick,Luo luhya coast,Ukambani,I have no doubt Sakaja will win against Ruto/Gachagua.
Money is never a problem for a serious presidential contender.There are too many people willing to fund you in and outside GOK.
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I deliberately put value of Raila at 1 billion shs - because he will be weak then.
Raila now is very expensive - maybe 20B kshs in cash plus maybe many projects/appointments.
Ruto doesnt want to deal - because he doesnt have to - he can take Azimio from Raila without handshake.
That is what RUto is doing - he is handshaking individual AZIMIO politicians - not Azimio leaders.
Ruto will continue to handshake individual Azimio leaders - and convert them to Kenya Kwanza - because he doesnt intend to become subject to little Gachagua threat games or go election again with razor thin margins.
If in 2027 - Ruto still need more votes - He will buy either Kalonzo or Raila for a little over a billion shsh - same amount he paid maDVD and Weta.
One of them will take the money - Raila very likely to take Ruto money - because his 2027 run is not viable - Kalonzo will not accept to deputize him.
Raila would have loved to have a handshake with Ruto. Ruto doesnt want anything to do with Raila.
Ruto can handshake Kalonzo or any other politician but not Raila.
As we speak Raila wants to push for another BBI 4 . This will be Rutos nightmare come 2023 and 2024 . The few Kalenjins like you supporting Raila will desert Raila . It will be fierce to an extent of tearing the country down.
Rutos beed with Raila is personal and goes back to 1999.
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I repeat Ruto and Raila will never be in the same political vehicle. Take this to the bank.
If Ruto and Raila become an item in 2027 . I will either retire from politics or just fight both like we did with the handshake.
I deliberately put value of Raila at 1 billion shs - because he will be weak then.
Raila now is very expensive - maybe 20B kshs in cash plus maybe many projects/appointments.
Ruto doesnt want to deal - because he doesnt have to - he can take Azimio from Raila without handshake.
That is what RUto is doing - he is handshaking individual AZIMIO politicians - not Azimio leaders.
Ruto will continue to handshake individual Azimio leaders - and convert them to Kenya Kwanza - because he doesnt intend to become subject to little Gachagua threat games or go election again with razor thin margins.
If in 2027 - Ruto still need more votes - He will buy either Kalonzo or Raila for a little over a billion shsh - same amount he paid maDVD and Weta.
One of them will take the money - Raila very likely to take Ruto money - because his 2027 run is not viable - Kalonzo will not accept to deputize him.
Raila would have loved to have a handshake with Ruto. Ruto doesnt want anything to do with Raila.
Ruto can handshake Kalonzo or any other politician but not Raila.
As we speak Raila wants to push for another BBI 4 . This will be Rutos nightmare come 2023 and 2024 . The few Kalenjins like you supporting Raila will desert Raila . It will be fierce to an extent of tearing the country down.
Rutos beed with Raila is personal and goes back to 1999.
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Ruto will decide how Raila will play after being bought. If he sees GEMA being uneasy - Raila will be bought to keep silent. To retire quietly and not support anyone. His people will support Ruto minus Raila overt public backing.
Knowing how Raila is a businessman selling Luos - he will definitely sell them to Ruto - Kalonzo is too broke - or a Mt kenya politician who can emerge.
He can even be bought to wreck havoc in opposition - by running again :) and splitting opposition.
Ruto like Moi is political genius - dont think he is like you - who hate Raila :). Raila to Ruto is a piece in chessboard.
The most likely to sell out in 2027 is Raila because he has no principles - Kalonzo is wasting time.
The most likely to buy - Ruto - because he has money.
I repeat Ruto and Raila will never be in the same political vehicle. Take this to the bank.
If Ruto and Raila become an item in 2027 . I will either retire from politics or just fight both like we did with the handshake.
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Which whiskey are you drinking this festive season . Where are you we can enjoy together if in Kenya
Ruto will decide how Raila will play after being bought. If he sees GEMA being uneasy - Raila will be bought to keep silent. To retire quietly and not support anyone. His people will support Ruto minus Raila overt public backing.
Knowing how Raila is a businessman selling Luos - he will definitely sell them to Ruto - Kalonzo is too broke - or a Mt kenya politician who can emerge.
He can even be bought to wreck havoc in opposition - by running again :) and splitting opposition.
I repeat Ruto and Raila will never be in the same political vehicle. Take this to the bank.
If Ruto and Raila become an item in 2027 . I will either retire from politics or just fight both like we did with the handshake.
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I am afraid of you. You remind me of some russian engineers who use to drink in kenya club. They use to repair kenya police helicopters in some lopsided deal worth 20million per month so I hear. My wife and kids have kidnapped me until Jan 3rd.
Which whiskey are you drinking this festive season . Where are you we can enjoy together if in Kenya
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Raila will run again in 2027 not unless God decides otherwise but he seems to be in pretty good shape at his age. I will still support him and it will be extremely competitive. Ruto will be running on his record and not Uhuru state capture nonsense. There will be lots of disgruntled hustlers especially in mt Kenya and Nairobi. If you think this is the closest Raila came to winning, losing by 200K in a flawed election, wait until 2027.
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Back in 2008 I was a member of that club , I never used to work for Kenya police nor was I a contracted Russian Engineer.You shouldnt fear me Im one harmeless person.
You just seem an enigma to me , one time you get everything 99% then the next minute you get everything 100% wrong.
I am afraid of you. You remind me of some russian engineers who use to drink in kenya club. They use to repair kenya police helicopters in some lopsided deal worth 20million per month so I hear. My wife and kids have kidnapped me until Jan 3rd.
Which whiskey are you drinking this festive season . Where are you we can enjoy together if in Kenya
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I don't see a non Kikuyu after Ruto's 2032 retirement. Get used to Kimani, Gachagua, or Ndindi!
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I don't see a non Kikuyu after Ruto's 2032 retirement. Get used to Kimani, Gachagua, or Ndindi!
Irungu kangata is submarine...definitely for now whomever gets Gema or Luhya vote..plus Ruto support wins.Sakaja has to beat madvd first..the good thing sakaja has is natural ability to transcend borders...Nairobi metro in 2032 will solid 1/3 of vote possibly.For now Gachagua is the guy on the lead as long as he remains loyal to Ruto.The battle starts on 2028..although I see Kenyans removing term limits if none measure to Ruto performance. Ruto will have to refuse but by 2030 who knows....Ruto will likely continue till 2042
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Gachagua has to avoid Mwangi Kiunjuri mistake..timming is everything..MK messed up big time and first timer Gachagua is dpork.Now Gachagua look likely to make same mistakes..of trying to be equal to Ruto..Ruto is giant.He needs to sync with Ruto on any political move heck even seek formal mentorship
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DP Riggy-G does need mentorship. He can't be going around town sound like he's PORK...Even if is acting in behalf of the President. He has to tone down his image in public. What happened to learning from Moi and Kibaki.
On Sakanja for President - Never...not 27 or there after. The brother is broke and you ascend to that office unless you are loaded, very loaded with your own Dough and/or a family heritage with serious endowment. Plus you may need to be restive like Hustle. He's none. Presidency is not about being a likable choirboy - this is mafia like business decided in Boardrooms.
The only way that Sakanja Johnston can be president is if there was a succession crisis and he gets appointed to warm the office while the sort out the crisis - a compromise that is.
Gachagua has to avoid Mwangi Kiunjuri mistake..timming is everything..MK messed up big time and first timer Gachagua is dpork.Now Gachagua look likely to make same mistakes..of trying to be equal to Ruto..Ruto is giant.He needs to sync with Ruto on any political move heck even seek formal mentorship
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Sakaja can get "Azimio" votes plus half Kenya Kwanza if he can first beat maDVD in western.
If he retains Nairobi governorship - he'd be swimming in money then.
Someone who has become TNA chair, Mp, Senator of Nairobi, governor of Nairobi is not sneered at.
He is more political accomplished that Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani and Irungu Kangata.
But first he will need to have a go at maDVD - then he can easily get Luo+Gusii - then he will need to tell kalenjin he is one of them without saying - he is home and dry.
Gachagua if he consolidate entire GEMA will of course be at pole position but he will find national politics bit tougher - as he is less likeable than say Sakaja. Right now Gachagua need to work on his national PR - he speak raw tribal politics directly - that may endear to gema - but will also make it hard for him to outgrow gema support - as he seek the critical 25% out there
DP Riggy-G does need mentorship. He can't be going around town sound like he's PORK...Even if is acting in behalf of the President. He has to tone down his image in public. What happened to learning from Moi and Kibaki.
On Sakanja for President - Never...not 27 or there after. The brother is broke and you ascend to that office unless you are loaded, very loaded with your own Dough and/or a family heritage with serious endowment. Plus you may need to be restive like Hustle. He's none. Presidency is not about being a likable choirboy - this is mafia like business decided in Boardrooms.
The only way that Sakanja Johnston can be president is if there was a succession crisis and he gets appointed to warm the office while the sort out the crisis - a compromise that is.
Gachagua has to avoid Mwangi Kiunjuri mistake..timming is everything..MK messed up big time and first timer Gachagua is dpork.Now Gachagua look likely to make same mistakes..of trying to be equal to Ruto..Ruto is giant.He needs to sync with Ruto on any political move heck even seek formal mentorship
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Political Theory class. In real politics
1.Uhuru made SakajaTNA chair he was just a proxy say like Muthama is UDA chairman without any command of Ukambani or Mbadi is ODM chairman without any command of Luoland.
2. Uhuru secured Sakaja Mp Nomination . He was never an elected MP
3.He became a Senator by Riding on Sonkos popularity and by virtue of being in Jubilee who were voting three piece . He was also lucky that ODM bungled their primaries and fielding a weak candidate in the name of Sifuna.
4.For Governor same story like no 3 . Azimios mistake was fielding a weak candidate by the name of Polycarp Igathe. Ruto ensured he got a direct nomination.He would have been beaten by Wetangulas Bro.
Winning Nairobi Governor is different political dynamics compared to National politics. Everyone know this . Your biggest mistake is same as Railas you hope Rift Valley can play politics of betrayal in 2032 and field a Sabaot for Presidency with backing of Raila and his base.
Number one by now the tables have changed and its the onus of Kalenjin to show they can lead the country change the unemployment rates , change the economy if they think it will all be about looting then we will be back to Mois era people will want to do away with Nyayo and will refuse another Moi.
Now for GEMA a leader will come out organically its just the nature of politics . You might be suprised it will not be the ones you have listed.
Sakaja can get "Azimio" votes plus half Kenya Kwanza if he can first beat maDVD in western.
If he retains Nairobi governorship - he'd be swimming in money then.
Someone who has become TNA chair, Mp, Senator of Nairobi, governor of Nairobi is not sneered at.
He is more political accomplished that Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani and Irungu Kangata.
But first he will need to have a go at maDVD - then he can easily get Luo+Gusii - then he will need to tell kalenjin he is one of them without saying - he is home and dry.
Gachagua if he consolidate entire GEMA will of course be at pole position but he will find national politics bit tougher - as he is less likeable than say Sakaja. Right now Gachagua need to work on his national PR - he speak raw tribal politics directly - that may endear to gema - but will also make it hard for him to outgrow gema support - as he seek the critical 25% out there
DP Riggy-G does need mentorship. He can't be going around town sound like he's PORK...Even if is acting in behalf of the President. He has to tone down his image in public. What happened to learning from Moi and Kibaki.
On Sakanja for President - Never...not 27 or there after. The brother is broke and you ascend to that office unless you are loaded, very loaded with your own Dough and/or a family heritage with serious endowment. Plus you may need to be restive like Hustle. He's none. Presidency is not about being a likable choirboy - this is mafia like business decided in Boardrooms.
The only way that Sakanja Johnston can be president is if there was a succession crisis and he gets appointed to warm the office while the sort out the crisis - a compromise that is.
Gachagua has to avoid Mwangi Kiunjuri mistake..timming is everything..MK messed up big time and first timer Gachagua is dpork.Now Gachagua look likely to make same mistakes..of trying to be equal to Ruto..Ruto is giant.He needs to sync with Ruto on any political move heck even seek formal mentorship
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This hilarious. Sakaja has been lucky or has taken cold calculated political moves since campus - just like Ruto. You can imagine in 10yrs time how incredibly luckly he will be.
I deal with real politics and predicted Gachagua will be DPORK when you were huffing and puffing. Told you Weta and maDVD were heading to Ruto...didnt pay the bet and lost my respect.
My business is to study politics for what it is and make predictions.
Here are my predictions.
1) Ruto will 100% transform kenya into law abiding prosperous united society. The politics as we know will change. There will be national popular calls to ammend the Katiba to remove the term limit and allow Ruto to continue in 2032. Ruto if he wants will be able to marshal the numbers required to remove term limits.
2) Sakaja versus maDVD duel will come soon. If Sakaja wins - he will become Kenya president. He has more pathways to presidency as he is more likeable across the board.
3) GEMA succession war will go on - it will have Ruto, Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani, Kindiki, Irungu kangata. Gachagua has made early moves and as DPORK is definitely one foot inside statehouse. If anything happen to Ruto he is PORK.
Gachagua like former Mau Mau has to realize it's time to come out of forest now and behave in a civilized manner. You cannot be speaking raw tribalism. He needs to be sophisticated.
4) Ruto has far as I know has not promised anybody any support. There might be pressure before 2027 for him to declare his GEMA successor. That will only happen if GEMA would have settled down on Gachagua as their leader. I doubt they will.
So far Irungu Kangata really impresses me with his politics and his work as governor. Kimani Ichungwa is struggling as majority leader and Ndidi Nyoro seem overwhelmed already.
Kimani need to really work on his leadership skills and win the support of all Mps - that will bring him back to contention - because majority leader is huge platform.
In conclusion I see 1) Ruto succeeding himself 2) Gachagua 3) Sakaja 4) Irungu Kangata - and the rest.
Political Theory class. In real politics
1.Uhuru made SakajaTNA chair he was just a proxy say like Muthama is UDA chairman without any command of Ukambani or Mbadi is ODM chairman without any command of Luoland.
2. Uhuru secured Sakaja Mp Nomination . He was never an elected MP
3.He became a Senator by Riding on Sonkos popularity and by virtue of being in Jubilee who were voting three piece . He was also lucky that ODM bungled their primaries and fielding a weak candidate in the name of Sifuna.
4.For Governor same story like no 3 . Azimios mistake was fielding a weak candidate by the name of Polycarp Igathe. Ruto ensured he got a direct nomination.He would have been beaten by Wetangulas Bro.
Winning Nairobi Governor is different political dynamics compared to National politics. Everyone know this . Your biggest mistake is same as Railas you hope Rift Valley can play politics of betrayal in 2032 and field a Sabaot for Presidency with backing of Raila and his base.
Number one by now the tables have changed and its the onus of Kalenjin to show they can lead the country change the unemployment rates , change the economy if they think it will all be about looting then we will be back to Mois era people will want to do away with Nyayo and will refuse another Moi.
Now for GEMA a leader will come out organically its just the nature of politics . You might be suprised it will not be the ones you have listed.
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Sakaja cant be in same sentence with Ruto please. Sakaja is a lucky dude, Noway is correct on this, I see sakaja more like joseph kamotho lucky dude always riding on people's back,I think Pundit your obsession and wishful thinking for Sakaja is because he is a Kalenjin, you are letting your emotions get better of you and cloud your otherwise brilliant political assessment.
However you right on Gachagua,he needs drop mau mau thing as its only endear to mlima,he is already seen as very tribal,he needs to know Ruto gots votes from other kabilas on a platform of being national leader,I dont know why Gachagua cant see this simple thing unless he is indeed tribal and doesn't care which will cost him going forward,its good to defend his people actually Gachagua stopped any repercussions on Pro uhuru guys like Kinoti, but he needs go further not just being there for Kikuyu Meru embu interests
I can say though he gained traction in mlima he wasn't liked at all embu,muranga,meru,kiambu,Tharaka nithi,Nyandarua, all hated him but now if you ask people he is starting to be a darling to them sincce he became DP guy is becoming very popular on ground.
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Who do you think will inherit Raila anti-gema constituency?
Its unlikely maDVD or Kalonzo - who are past their sell date - will endear themselves to kenya?
Sakaja will be the guy.
Once Sakaja has nailed Luo, Luhya and all these other people who "naturally" distrust GEMA (leave alone a very tribal Gachagua) he is home and dry.
So for me Sakaja real competition is maDVD and Kalonzo...then he can even quit UDA and run as Azimio in 2027.
Most of you struggle in politics because you cannot think in 360 - consider all angles.
Remember out there is silent 48% azimio crew headless - looking for a successor - Kalonzo doesnt cut it - martha is a joke.
Sakaja is very smart political operator. If he want - he wont be Nairobi governor - after being senator in 37yrs of age.
Now imagine 10 more years - with Nairobi billions - and his 47yr old - with stellar record in Nairobi - biggest city with microsom of kenya.
Sakaja cant be in same sentence with Ruto please. Sakaja is a lucky dude, Noway is correct on this, I see sakaja more like joseph kamotho lucky dude always riding on people's back,I think Pundit your obsession and wishful thinking for Sakaja is because he is a Kalenjin, you are letting your emotions get better of you and cloud your otherwise brilliant political assessment.
However you right on Gachagua,he needs drop mau mau thing as its only endear to mlima,he is already seen as very tribal,he needs to know Ruto gots votes from other kabilas on a platform of being national leader,I dont know why Gachagua cant see this simple thing unless he is indeed tribal and doesn't care which will cost him going forward,its good to defend his people actually Gachagua stopped any repercussions on Pro uhuru guys like Kinoti, but he needs go further not just being there for Kikuyu Meru embu interests
I can say though he gained traction in mlima he wasn't liked at all embu,muranga,meru,kiambu,Tharaka nithi,Nyandarua, all hated him but now if you ask people he is starting to be a darling to them sincce he became DP guy is becoming very popular on ground.
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How does Sakaja start doing that?? Thats the mbig question,where will he get the time,money and grassroots support from? Compare him with Sonko??? You have to look at Azimio first people like Sifuna,babu owino etc and think thats the natural point where pro baba people will coalesce,they cant just shift to an UDA guy,look first at whom azimio can tosha, Kambas too will have their own politics is tribal in Kenya. If you look deeply into this you will find sakaja has 0 grassroots support unless say Ruto whipped all Kalenjins to tosha him which wont happen. Luhyas cant be relied on Mudavadi brought a mere dozen thousand of votes i believe even wetangula brought more. If madvd cant bring luhyas together will sakaja ?? Guy never been inlihya land can tellbyou people like Malala will run him hard dont expect Madvd to back sakaja ahead of cleophas Malala.
Sakaja is a good guy across board but he is soft on real power, people voted him simoly because igathe was a gatheca stooge,Sakaja is always at the right place right time,but winning PORK doesn't work that way may be a miracle would.
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Sakaja is soft on the outside and hard on the inside. That is great politician. He is like Ruto and Moi. They give you a christian humble vibe but inside is cold calculating machine. Gachagua is terrible politician because he is hard everywhere..he is too honest and truthful to make good politician. He makes a great loyal friend though.
Right now I am pretty impressed by moves he is making in Nairobi - reaching out to Azimio crew.
Secondly Nairobi gives him access to serious billions - he can easily bank two billion annually - and has access to real power that he can dish out in contracts - to make his political network
I dont see Sifuna :) or idiot like Babu owino going anywhere. This is their best.
Underrate Sakaja at your own peril. I would advice Sakaja to move to Azimio in 2027 and contest in Nairobi governorship. Anyone running against Ruto in 2027 is wasting money.
The come 2032 - Sakaja will be Azimio candidate - he will just need to pick a Kamba DPORK - like Mutula Jnr - and he will be home and dry - as Luo, Luhyas and large section of kalenjin will back him.
How does Sakaja start doing that?? Thats the mbig question,where will he get the time,money and grassroots support from? Compare him with Sonko??? You have to look at Azimio first people like Sifuna,babu owino etc and think thats the natural point where pro baba people will coalesce,they cant just shift to an UDA guy,look first at whom azimio can tosha, Kambas too will have their own politics is tribal in Kenya. If you look deeply into this you will find sakaja has 0 grassroots support unless say Ruto whipped all Kalenjins to tosha him which wont happen. Luhyas cant be relied on Mudavadi brought a mere dozen thousand of votes i believe even wetangula brought more. If madvd cant bring luhyas together will sakaja ?? Guy never been inlihya land can tellbyou people like Malala will run him hard dont expect Madvd to back sakaja ahead of cleophas Malala.
Sakaja is a good guy across board but he is soft on real power, people voted him simoly because igathe was a gatheca stooge,Sakaja is always at the right place right time,but winning PORK doesn't work that way may be a miracle would.
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(1) Babu owino is definitely the next Luo leader.
(2) If Sakaja is reelected Governor of Nairobi,He will be the most likely UDA candidate likely to succeed Ruto/Mudavadi/Wetangula.That will give a kickstart of a presidential election from Luhya and Kalenjins and if he has a Kikuyu deputy like Ndindi or Ichungwa,It's an outright win.
(3) If Sakaja becomes president in 2032,The most likely scenario Babu owino will be the opposition leader like Jaramogi and Rails for the next 30 years.
(4) Ndindi or Ichungwa,I don't know who between them will become the next GEMA leader but I think Gachagua needs to mentor one of them and make sure they receive many government tenders to be able to survive future political contests in Kenya.
(4) A Sakaja Ndindi/Ichungwa ticket is UNBEATABLE.
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Babu leading Luos to where - and with what money? Babu a chotara leading the proud Luo tribe. Iyo nayo. He can only lead Embakasi.
Post Raila - Luos will split into 3 - North - Central - and South.
It will take another great leader to unite Luos - and it wont be easy.
Babu owino is not even chairman of cattle dip committee - Raila and LUO crew told him to take his utoto mbali - and now he is teaching online courses.
Babu owino is likely to be adopted by Sakaja next.
(1) Babu owino is definitely the next Luo leader.
(2) If Sakaja is reelected Governor of Nairobi,He will be the most likely UDA candidate likely to succeed Ruto/Mudavadi/Wetangula.That will give a kickstart of a presidential election from Luhya and Kalenjins and if he has a Kikuyu deputy like Ndindi or Ichungwa,It's an outright win.
(3) If Sakaja becomes president in 2032,The most likely scenario Babu owino will be the opposition leader like Jaramogi and Rails for the next 30 years.
(4) Ndindi or Ichungwa,I don't know who between them will become the next GEMA leader but I think Gachagua needs to mentor one of them and make sure they receive many government tenders to be able to survive future political contests in Kenya.
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Sakaja is soft on the outside and hard on the inside. That is great politician. He is like Ruto and Moi.
How does Sakaja start doing that?? Thats the mbig question,where will he get the time,money and grassroots support from? Compare him with Sonko??? You have to look at Azimio first people like Sifuna,babu owino etc and think thats the natural point where pro baba people will coalesce,they cant just shift to an UDA guy,look first at whom azimio can tosha, Kambas too will have their own politics is tribal in Kenya. If you look deeply into this you will find sakaja has 0 grassroots support unless say Ruto whipped all Kalenjins to tosha him which wont happen. Luhyas cant be relied on Mudavadi brought a mere dozen thousand of votes i believe even wetangula brought more. If madvd cant bring luhyas together will sakaja ?? Guy never been in luhya land can tell you people like Malala will run him hard dont expect Madvd to back sakaja ahead of cleophas Malala.
Sakaja is a good guy across board but he is soft on real power, people voted him simoly because igathe was a gatheca stooge,Sakaja is always at the right place right time,but winning PORK doesn't work that way may be a miracle would.
Do you have any evidence on this or you just thinking and wishing??? Being pork is not easy Ruto started in the 90s my friends,You think sakaja who just started a decade ago can just be pork ???you are not giving me a clear path to his victory all you saying is luhya luo votes,how does he even get luo votes?? When will luhyas vote as a block they didn't vote madvd as a block
The only path like i said is Ruto tosharing him something that can't happen,he need grassroots support where does he have,?gachagua is right saying GEMA voted him. Again compare Sonko and Sakaja in Nairobi who has grassoot support???
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Babu leading Luos to where - and with what money? Babu a chotara leading the proud Luo tribe. Iyo nayo. He can only lead Embakasi.
(1) Babu owino is definitely the next Luo leader.
(2) If Sakaja is reelected Governor of Nairobi,He will be the most likely UDA candidate likely to succeed Ruto/Mudavadi/Wetangula.That will give a kickstart of a presidential election from Luhya and Kalenjins and if he has a Kikuyu deputy like Ndindi or Ichungwa,It's an outright win.
(3) If Sakaja becomes president in 2032,The most likely scenario Babu owino will be the opposition leader like Jaramogi and Rails for the next 30 years.
(4) Ndindi or Ichungwa,I don't know who between them will become the next GEMA leader but I think Gachagua needs to mentor one of them and make sure they receive many government tenders to be able to survive future political contests in Kenya.
(1) Babu is a two term Luo Mp in Nairobi in his own right unlike Sakaja who is Senator and Governor courtesy of Uhuru and Ruto...Raila will be 83 years old in 2027.Like his father's genes and his brother Oburu who is on wheel chair at his father's age,I don't see Raila surviving post 2027.
(2) That said,Kidero has been defeated twice as governor in Nairobi and homabay.He is almost 70 years old.
That leaves us with BABU OWINO as the Next Luo leader.The only thing that can stop him is a drug overdose.I think Babu needs to strategise.The only thing that stops Babu owino from becoming becoming Governor of Nairobi and Luo leader post 2027 is Sakaja.He needs to find a way to ensure Sakaja is impeached and he can successfully become governor in 2027 and that ends Sakaja dreams of becoming president.
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Pundit let Njuri enlight you on simple maths
If Sakaja goes azimio or doesn't tow GEMA terms in 27 its simple
Gema toshas someone like Sonko ,Kamba GEMA votes in nairobi are 57%
Simple arithmetic and that's why Sonko is breathing hard on Sakaja neck he knows this :D
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Sakaja started politics in 2007 - and didnt finish univeristy as results. He is now well into 15yrs in politics - has risen very fast.
Sakaja made jujistu moves in 2022 that you didnt notice.
Actually in 2017 - he first tried to run in Kitale using his kalenjin-luhya roots - then abandoned it - and went for Nairobi senate.bNow in 2022 - he first moved to ANC - hoping to use luhya in Nairobi for governship - made a deal with Ruto to deliver maDVD - and then negotiated for UDA ticket in Nairobi - Pst Wanjiru was dumped.
Now that he is Nairobi governor - which 3rd most powerful political job in Kenya after PORK and DPORK - he can bank lots of money and award lots of contracts.
He will defend his seat for governorship - moving away from crowded GEMA succession line - to occupy the spaces being left by Raila.
I see him eventually quiting UDA/Kenya Kwanza....because it's very crowded.
Do you have any evidence on this or you just thinking and wishing??? Being pork is not easy Ruto started in the 90s my friends,You think sakaja who just started a decade ago can just be pork ???you are not giving me a clear path to his victory all you saying is luhya luo votes,how does he even get luo votes?? When will luhyas vote as a block they didn't vote madvd as a block
The only path like i said is Ruto tosharing him something that can't happen,he need grassroots support where does he have,?gachagua is right saying GEMA voted him. Again compare Sonko and Sakaja in Nairobi who has grassoot support???
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There is no good enough leader to succeed Raila in Luo land. There will be many leaders. Babu owino was Raila puppy. Raila didnt even consider him for chairmanship of anything. Now he is teaching maths classes online :). He has no money to do anything serious.
You dont know nothing about Luos.
(1) Babu is a two term Luo Mp in Nairobi in his own right unlike Sakaja who is Senator and Governor courtesy of Uhuru and Ruto...Raila will be 83 years old in 2027.Like his father's genes and his brother Oburu who is on wheel chair at his father's age,I don't see Raila surviving post 2027.
(2) That said,Kidero has been defeated twice as governor in Nairobi and homabay.He is almost 70 years old.
That leaves us with BABU OWINO as the Next Luo leader.The only thing that can stop him is a drug overdose.I think Babu needs to strategise.The only thing that stops Babu owino from becoming becoming Governor of Nairobi and Luo leader post 2027 is Sakaja.He needs to find a way to ensure Sakaja is impeached and he can successfully become governor in 2027 and that ends Sakaja dreams of becoming president.
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Sonko career in politics is permanently over.
Supreme court sealed his fate.
Yes GEMA if they unite - and back someone else - will give Sakaja probelms.
Those are two improbable scenarios.
GEMA uniting - tough - but maybe possible.
United GEMA agreeing to back someone else - impossible improbable.
What is likely to happen - GEMA will again - this time - desperately want to win Nairobi governorship.
This is really the beef with Sakaja - GEMA feel they own Nairobi.
Sakaja is aware that he can only run Nairobi by being bi-partisan as Azimio crew are majority
So Sakaja should prepare to face United GEMA - and he can only beat them by uniting Non-GEMA.
In Short Sakaja should continue to make overtures to Luo, Luhyas and Kambas in Nairobi as he will be under threat from GEMA>
Pundit let Njuri enlight you on simple maths
If Sakaja goes azimio or doesn't tow GEMA terms in 27 its simple
Gema toshas someone like Sonko ,Kamba GEMA votes in nairobi are 57%
Simple arithmetic and that's why Sonko is breathing hard on Sakaja neck he knows this :D
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Sakaja is soft on the outside and hard on the inside. That is great politician. He is like Ruto and Moi.
How does Sakaja start doing that?? Thats the mbig question,where will he get the time,money and grassroots support from? Compare him with Sonko??? You have to look at Azimio first people like Sifuna,babu owino etc and think thats the natural point where pro baba people will coalesce,they cant just shift to an UDA guy,look first at whom azimio can tosha, Kambas too will have their own politics is tribal in Kenya. If you look deeply into this you will find sakaja has 0 grassroots support unless say Ruto whipped all Kalenjins to tosha him which wont happen. Luhyas cant be relied on Mudavadi brought a mere dozen thousand of votes i believe even wetangula brought more. If madvd cant bring luhyas together will sakaja ?? Guy never been in luhya land can tell you people like Malala will run him hard dont expect Madvd to back sakaja ahead of cleophas Malala.
Sakaja is a good guy across board but he is soft on real power, people voted him simoly because igathe was a gatheca stooge,Sakaja is always at the right place right time,but winning PORK doesn't work that way may be a miracle would.
Do you have any evidence on this or you just thinking and wishing??? Being pork is not easy Ruto started in the 90s my friends,You think sakaja who just started a decade ago can just be pork ???you are not giving me a clear path to his victory all you saying is luhya luo votes,how does he even get luo votes?? When will luhyas vote as a block they didn't vote madvd as a block
The only path like i said is Ruto tosharing him something that can't happen,he need grassroots support where does he have,?gachagua is right saying GEMA voted him. Again compare Sonko and Sakaja in Nairobi who has grassoot support???
Like Ruto,Sakaja is very clever.
(1) Ruto started politics in 1992 as a youth operative and became deputy president in 2013.Thats a span of 20 years.He learnt that KANU was heading nowhere in 2005 dumped KANU He learnt Raila was heading nowhere in 2009 and dumped Him.
(2) Sakaja Joined politics in 2007.He became Governor 15 years Ruto.Like Ruto He started like Kibaki operative as a youth winger.He then learnt Kibaki was taking him nowhere and joined Uhuru to become Mp.He then learnt Uhuru was taking him nowhere and joined Ruto to become Governor of Nairobi 15 years later.In 2027 He will have a record of an active politician experience of over 22 years.In 2032 He will be in politics for 28 years.Ruto spent 30 years to become president from 1992.
That's a very comparative record.Both are very strategic.I think like Pundit has said...Sakaja need to use the 3BN he is stealing from Nairobi to make all MCAs in Nairobi be it Jaluo or Kikuyu happy and create a very strong network in Luhya and Kalenjin land.
As for GEMA,He need to share the stolen money with Gachagua Ndindi and Ichungwa too and their MCAs in Nairobi.They are the people who have Ruto 40% of their vote.That way with Luhya Kalenjin support and GEMA kickstart He will win Nairobi again in 2027 and become president in 2032.
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Pundit , I personally know Sakaja, Im one of the people who warned him when his strategy was to endear himself to NASA and vie for Governor under Railas umbrella , He was some of the few individuals who were telling Mudavadi to stick with Raila. His was Uhuru Trojan horse . If Mudavadi would have not crossed to Rutos side Sakaja was going to be their Nairobi candidate.
So when you say Sakaja is like Ruto I laugh.
Ruto made Sakaja Governor together with bad moves by Azimio.
As for predicting Gachagua will be Dpork I did that when you were still rooting for Kiunjuri records are here they speak for themselves .
As for the bet I predicted with 100% accuracy Mudavadi will team up with Ruto you twisted it with Wetangula crossover and refused to pay the debt . I ve asked we meet and you severally said you fear me.
Im not Robina and wont start deviating on other things . Ruto performance etc.
As for duel Sakaja will be tied up on Nairobi politics that he will not venture outside . He most probably will face an impeachment motion and he will run to Raila however only Senate will save him.
I can see what Gachagua is trying to do however I dont support these kind of Raila politics , He is trying to consolidate GEMA so that once Ruto wins in 2027 all he will need to do is look for large tribe and give them DPORK, will he succeed we are yet to see personally I will not support These kind of Raila politics . He did it with NDP then Ruto and Uhuru copied the same style. I personally forsee a GEMA leader emerging organically, Most probably in the second term.
As for the Anti-Gema hate , this unfortunately has transformed to Anti Kalenjin hate reason no one can explain . I never in my lifetime thought Mijikenda, Kambas , Turkana, Samburu, Masai , Pokot, Kisii would politicaly hate Kalenjins thats what is happening on the ground. Now it depends how Ruto can tactically tackle this new dynamic bearing in mind that Raila will try to divide RVGEMA this year with a cry of amending the constitution. Raila will try to do what he did in 2002. So when the Moist and anti Gema people like RVpundit are focusing on fighting and dumping GEMA , Raila is there watching and salivating.
This hilarious. Sakaja has been lucky or has taken cold calculated political moves since campus - just like Ruto. You can imagine in 10yrs time how incredibly luckly he will be.
I deal with real politics and predicted Gachagua will be DPORK when you were huffing and puffing. Told you Weta and maDVD were heading to Ruto...didnt pay the bet and lost my respect.
My business is to study politics for what it is and make predictions.
Here are my predictions.
1) Ruto will 100% transform kenya into law abiding prosperous united society. The politics as we know will change. There will be national popular calls to ammend the Katiba to remove the term limit and allow Ruto to continue in 2032. Ruto if he wants will be able to marshal the numbers required to remove term limits.
2) Sakaja versus maDVD duel will come soon. If Sakaja wins - he will become Kenya president. He has more pathways to presidency as he is more likeable across the board.
3) GEMA succession war will go on - it will have Ruto, Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani, Kindiki, Irungu kangata. Gachagua has made early moves and as DPORK is definitely one foot inside statehouse. If anything happen to Ruto he is PORK.
Gachagua like former Mau Mau has to realize it's time to come out of forest now and behave in a civilized manner. You cannot be speaking raw tribalism. He needs to be sophisticated.
4) Ruto has far as I know has not promised anybody any support. There might be pressure before 2027 for him to declare his GEMA successor. That will only happen if GEMA would have settled down on Gachagua as their leader. I doubt they will.
So far Irungu Kangata really impresses me with his politics and his work as governor. Kimani Ichungwa is struggling as majority leader and Ndidi Nyoro seem overwhelmed already.
Kimani need to really work on his leadership skills and win the support of all Mps - that will bring him back to contention - because majority leader is huge platform.
In conclusion I see 1) Ruto succeeding himself 2) Gachagua 3) Sakaja 4) Irungu Kangata - and the rest.
Political Theory class. In real politics
1.Uhuru made SakajaTNA chair he was just a proxy say like Muthama is UDA chairman without any command of Ukambani or Mbadi is ODM chairman without any command of Luoland.
2. Uhuru secured Sakaja Mp Nomination . He was never an elected MP
3.He became a Senator by Riding on Sonkos popularity and by virtue of being in Jubilee who were voting three piece . He was also lucky that ODM bungled their primaries and fielding a weak candidate in the name of Sifuna.
4.For Governor same story like no 3 . Azimios mistake was fielding a weak candidate by the name of Polycarp Igathe. Ruto ensured he got a direct nomination.He would have been beaten by Wetangulas Bro.
Winning Nairobi Governor is different political dynamics compared to National politics. Everyone know this . Your biggest mistake is same as Railas you hope Rift Valley can play politics of betrayal in 2032 and field a Sabaot for Presidency with backing of Raila and his base.
Number one by now the tables have changed and its the onus of Kalenjin to show they can lead the country change the unemployment rates , change the economy if they think it will all be about looting then we will be back to Mois era people will want to do away with Nyayo and will refuse another Moi.
Now for GEMA a leader will come out organically its just the nature of politics . You might be suprised it will not be the ones you have listed.
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You excel in twisting facts and I knew from our bet that I dont want to meet someone without integrity.
Anyway all these talks are premature.
Ruto the lion of Sugoi will roam this wasterland for 10yrs and more if he wants
Will there be anti-kalenjin sentiment as hard as anti-gema - very unlikely.
What is now happening is most people see this gov as kikuyu-kalenjin gov at the core.
Gachagua is not helping in national agenda and Ruto has to advice him to avoid such stone age politics.
In meantime let focus on AZIMIO - that is where real succession will be happening - as old Raila tries to keep at it.
Pundit , I personally know Sakaja, Im one of the people who warned him when his strategy was to endear himself to NASA and vie for Governor under Railas umbrella , He was some of the few individuals who were telling Mudavadi to stick with Raila. His was Uhuru Trojan horse . If Mudavadi would have not crossed to Rutos side Sakaja was going to be their Nairobi candidate.
So when you say Sakaja is like Ruto I laugh.
Ruto made Sakaja Governor together with bad moves by Azimio.
As for predicting Gachagua will be Dpork I did that when you were still rooting for Kiunjuri records are here they speak for themselves .
As for the bet I predicted with 100% accuracy Mudavadi will team up with Ruto you twisted it with Wetangula crossover and refused to pay the debt . I ve asked we meet and you severally said you fear me.
Im not Robina and wont start deviating on other things . Ruto performance etc.
As for duel Sakaja will be tied up on Nairobi politics that he will not venture outside . He most probably will face an impeachment motion and he will run to Raila however only Senate will save him.
I can see what Gachagua is trying to do however I dont support these kind of Raila politics , He is trying to consolidate GEMA so that once Ruto wins in 2027 all he will need to do is look for large tribe and give them DPORK, will he succeed we are yet to see personally I will not support These kind of Raila politics . He did it with NDP then Ruto and Uhuru copied the same style. I personally forsee a GEMA leader emerging organically, Most probably in the second term.
As for the Anti-Gema hate , this unfortunately has transformed to Anti Kalenjin hate reason no one can explain . I never in my lifetime thought Mijikenda, Kambas , Turkana, Samburu, Masai , Pokot, Kisii would politicaly hate Kalenjins thats what is happening on the ground. Now it depends how Ruto can tactically tackle this new dynamic bearing in mind that Raila will try to divide RVGEMA this year with a cry of amending the constitution. Raila will try to do what he did in 2002. So when the Moist and anti Gema people like RVpundit are focusing on fighting and dumping GEMA , Raila is there watching and salivating.
This hilarious. Sakaja has been lucky or has taken cold calculated political moves since campus - just like Ruto. You can imagine in 10yrs time how incredibly luckly he will be.
I deal with real politics and predicted Gachagua will be DPORK when you were huffing and puffing. Told you Weta and maDVD were heading to Ruto...didnt pay the bet and lost my respect.
My business is to study politics for what it is and make predictions.
Here are my predictions.
1) Ruto will 100% transform kenya into law abiding prosperous united society. The politics as we know will change. There will be national popular calls to ammend the Katiba to remove the term limit and allow Ruto to continue in 2032. Ruto if he wants will be able to marshal the numbers required to remove term limits.
2) Sakaja versus maDVD duel will come soon. If Sakaja wins - he will become Kenya president. He has more pathways to presidency as he is more likeable across the board.
3) GEMA succession war will go on - it will have Ruto, Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani, Kindiki, Irungu kangata. Gachagua has made early moves and as DPORK is definitely one foot inside statehouse. If anything happen to Ruto he is PORK.
Gachagua like former Mau Mau has to realize it's time to come out of forest now and behave in a civilized manner. You cannot be speaking raw tribalism. He needs to be sophisticated.
4) Ruto has far as I know has not promised anybody any support. There might be pressure before 2027 for him to declare his GEMA successor. That will only happen if GEMA would have settled down on Gachagua as their leader. I doubt they will.
So far Irungu Kangata really impresses me with his politics and his work as governor. Kimani Ichungwa is struggling as majority leader and Ndidi Nyoro seem overwhelmed already.
Kimani need to really work on his leadership skills and win the support of all Mps - that will bring him back to contention - because majority leader is huge platform.
In conclusion I see 1) Ruto succeeding himself 2) Gachagua 3) Sakaja 4) Irungu Kangata - and the rest.
Political Theory class. In real politics
1.Uhuru made SakajaTNA chair he was just a proxy say like Muthama is UDA chairman without any command of Ukambani or Mbadi is ODM chairman without any command of Luoland.
2. Uhuru secured Sakaja Mp Nomination . He was never an elected MP
3.He became a Senator by Riding on Sonkos popularity and by virtue of being in Jubilee who were voting three piece . He was also lucky that ODM bungled their primaries and fielding a weak candidate in the name of Sifuna.
4.For Governor same story like no 3 . Azimios mistake was fielding a weak candidate by the name of Polycarp Igathe. Ruto ensured he got a direct nomination.He would have been beaten by Wetangulas Bro.
Winning Nairobi Governor is different political dynamics compared to National politics. Everyone know this . Your biggest mistake is same as Railas you hope Rift Valley can play politics of betrayal in 2032 and field a Sabaot for Presidency with backing of Raila and his base.
Number one by now the tables have changed and its the onus of Kalenjin to show they can lead the country change the unemployment rates , change the economy if they think it will all be about looting then we will be back to Mois era people will want to do away with Nyayo and will refuse another Moi.
Now for GEMA a leader will come out organically its just the nature of politics . You might be suprised it will not be the ones you have listed.
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LOL you have let the cat out of the bag. Once Sakaja loses Rutos backing there will be a by election in Nairobi . Sonko hopes by then his integrity issue will have been resolved .
Sakaja with his unresolved degree issue is walking on tight ropes. Any misadventure he forgets politics all together.
Pundit let Njuri enlight you on simple maths
If Sakaja goes azimio or doesn't tow GEMA terms in 27 its simple
Gema toshas someone like Sonko ,Kamba GEMA votes in nairobi are 57%
Simple arithmetic and that's why Sonko is breathing hard on Sakaja neck he knows this :D
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RVPundit if I wanted to get you I would in a minute. Just want to have a drink with you and laugh as they say.
as for this , I fully agree as they say a day in politics is like .........
Anyway all these talks are premature.
You excel in twisting facts and I knew from our bet that I dont want to meet someone without integrity.
Anyway all these talks are premature.
Ruto the lion of Sugoi will roam this wasterland for 10yrs and more if he wants
Pundit , I personally know Sakaja, Im one of the people who warned him when his strategy was to endear himself to NASA and vie for Governor under Railas umbrella , He was some of the few individuals who were telling Mudavadi to stick with Raila. His was Uhuru Trojan horse . If Mudavadi would have not crossed to Rutos side Sakaja was going to be their Nairobi candidate.
So when you say Sakaja is like Ruto I laugh.
Ruto made Sakaja Governor together with bad moves by Azimio.
As for predicting Gachagua will be Dpork I did that when you were still rooting for Kiunjuri records are here they speak for themselves .
As for the bet I predicted with 100% accuracy Mudavadi will team up with Ruto you twisted it with Wetangula crossover and refused to pay the debt . I ve asked we meet and you severally said you fear me.
Im not Robina and wont start deviating on other things . Ruto performance etc.
As for duel Sakaja will be tied up on Nairobi politics that he will not venture outside . He most probably will face an impeachment motion and he will run to Raila however only Senate will save him.
I can see what Gachagua is trying to do however I dont support these kind of Raila politics , He is trying to consolidate GEMA so that once Ruto wins in 2027 all he will need to do is look for large tribe and give them DPORK, will he succeed we are yet to see personally I will not support These kind of Raila politics . He did it with NDP then Ruto and Uhuru copied the same style. I personally forsee a GEMA leader emerging organically, Most probably in the second term.
As for the Anti-Gema hate , this unfortunately has transformed to Anti Kalenjin hate reason no one can explain . I never in my lifetime thought Mijikenda, Kambas , Turkana, Samburu, Masai , Pokot, Kisii would politicaly hate Kalenjins thats what is happening on the ground. Now it depends how Ruto can tactically tackle this new dynamic bearing in mind that Raila will try to divide RVGEMA this year with a cry of amending the constitution. Raila will try to do what he did in 2002. So when the Moist and anti Gema people like RVpundit are focusing on fighting and dumping GEMA , Raila is there watching and salivating.
This hilarious. Sakaja has been lucky or has taken cold calculated political moves since campus - just like Ruto. You can imagine in 10yrs time how incredibly luckly he will be.
I deal with real politics and predicted Gachagua will be DPORK when you were huffing and puffing. Told you Weta and maDVD were heading to Ruto...didnt pay the bet and lost my respect.
My business is to study politics for what it is and make predictions.
Here are my predictions.
1) Ruto will 100% transform kenya into law abiding prosperous united society. The politics as we know will change. There will be national popular calls to ammend the Katiba to remove the term limit and allow Ruto to continue in 2032. Ruto if he wants will be able to marshal the numbers required to remove term limits.
2) Sakaja versus maDVD duel will come soon. If Sakaja wins - he will become Kenya president. He has more pathways to presidency as he is more likeable across the board.
3) GEMA succession war will go on - it will have Ruto, Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani, Kindiki, Irungu kangata. Gachagua has made early moves and as DPORK is definitely one foot inside statehouse. If anything happen to Ruto he is PORK.
Gachagua like former Mau Mau has to realize it's time to come out of forest now and behave in a civilized manner. You cannot be speaking raw tribalism. He needs to be sophisticated.
4) Ruto has far as I know has not promised anybody any support. There might be pressure before 2027 for him to declare his GEMA successor. That will only happen if GEMA would have settled down on Gachagua as their leader. I doubt they will.
So far Irungu Kangata really impresses me with his politics and his work as governor. Kimani Ichungwa is struggling as majority leader and Ndidi Nyoro seem overwhelmed already.
Kimani need to really work on his leadership skills and win the support of all Mps - that will bring him back to contention - because majority leader is huge platform.
In conclusion I see 1) Ruto succeeding himself 2) Gachagua 3) Sakaja 4) Irungu Kangata - and the rest.
Political Theory class. In real politics
1.Uhuru made SakajaTNA chair he was just a proxy say like Muthama is UDA chairman without any command of Ukambani or Mbadi is ODM chairman without any command of Luoland.
2. Uhuru secured Sakaja Mp Nomination . He was never an elected MP
3.He became a Senator by Riding on Sonkos popularity and by virtue of being in Jubilee who were voting three piece . He was also lucky that ODM bungled their primaries and fielding a weak candidate in the name of Sifuna.
4.For Governor same story like no 3 . Azimios mistake was fielding a weak candidate by the name of Polycarp Igathe. Ruto ensured he got a direct nomination.He would have been beaten by Wetangulas Bro.
Winning Nairobi Governor is different political dynamics compared to National politics. Everyone know this . Your biggest mistake is same as Railas you hope Rift Valley can play politics of betrayal in 2032 and field a Sabaot for Presidency with backing of Raila and his base.
Number one by now the tables have changed and its the onus of Kalenjin to show they can lead the country change the unemployment rates , change the economy if they think it will all be about looting then we will be back to Mois era people will want to do away with Nyayo and will refuse another Moi.
Now for GEMA a leader will come out organically its just the nature of politics . You might be suprised it will not be the ones you have listed.
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Agreed on Sakaja political career almost mirroring Ruto.
He has to focus first on making Nairobeans happy.
Everything else is secondary.
He has to deliver - he needs to work with Ruto closely - while being respecful of Raila & Azimio crew
He also has to find a way to work with GEMA - because they can sabotage his plan.
GEMA also need to realize they cannot threaten Sakaja - because they will give Sakaja free Azimio crew.
What they need is reconciliation meeting organized by Ruto for Sakaja and GEMA crew - but when it come to money/tenders/jobs - I dont see Sakaja giving Ruto then Gachagua then Ndidi then MCAs - that is going to leave him with nothing.
Like Ruto,Sakaja is very clever.
(1) Ruto started politics in 1992 as a youth operative and became deputy president in 2013.Thats a span of 20 years.He learnt that KANU was heading nowhere in 2005 dumped KANU He learnt Raila was heading nowhere in 2009 and dumped Him.
(2) Sakaja Joined politics in 2007.He became Governor 15 years Ruto.Like Ruto He started like Kibaki operative as a youth winger.He then learnt Kibaki was taking him nowhere and joined Uhuru to become Mp.He then learnt Uhuru was taking him nowhere and joined Ruto to become Governor of Nairobi 15 years later.In 2027 He will have a record of an active politician experience of over 22 years.In 2032 He will be in politics for 28 years.Ruto spent 30 years to become president from 1992.
That's a very comparative record.Both are very strategic.I think like Pundit has said...Sakaja need to use the 3BN he is stealing from Nairobi to make all MCAs in Nairobi be it Jaluo or Kikuyu happy and create a very strong network in Luhya and Kalenjin land.
As for GEMA,He need to share the stolen money with Gachagua Ndindi and Ichungwa too and their MCAs in Nairobi.They are the people who have Ruto 40% of their vote.That way with Luhya Kalenjin support and GEMA kickstart He will win Nairobi again in 2027 and become president in 2032.
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Agreed on Sakaja political career almost mirroring Ruto.
He has to focus first on making Nairobeans happy.
Everything else is secondary.
He has to deliver - he needs to work with Ruto closely - while being respecful of Raila & Azimio crew
He also has to find a way to work with GEMA - because they can sabotage his plan.
GEMA also need to realize they cannot threaten Sakaja - because they will give Sakaja free Azimio crew.
What they need is reconciliation meeting organized by Ruto for Sakaja and GEMA crew - but when it come to money/tenders/jobs - I dont see Sakaja giving Ruto then Gachagua then Ndidi then MCAs - that is going to leave him with nothing.
Like Ruto,Sakaja is very clever.
(1) Ruto started politics in 1992 as a youth operative and became deputy president in 2013.Thats a span of 20 years.He learnt that KANU was heading nowhere in 2005 dumped KANU He learnt Raila was heading nowhere in 2009 and dumped Him.
(2) Sakaja Joined politics in 2007.He became Governor 15 years Ruto.Like Ruto He started like Kibaki operative as a youth winger.He then learnt Kibaki was taking him nowhere and joined Uhuru to become Mp.He then learnt Uhuru was taking him nowhere and joined Ruto to become Governor of Nairobi 15 years later.In 2027 He will have a record of an active politician experience of over 22 years.In 2032 He will be in politics for 28 years.Ruto spent 30 years to become president from 1992.
That's a very comparative record.Both are very strategic.I think like Pundit has said...Sakaja need to use the 3BN he is stealing from Nairobi to make all MCAs in Nairobi be it Jaluo or Kikuyu happy and create a very strong network in Luhya and Kalenjin land.
As for GEMA,He need to share the stolen money with Gachagua Ndindi and Ichungwa too and their MCAs in Nairobi.They are the people who have Ruto 40% of their vote.That way with Luhya Kalenjin support and GEMA kickstart He will win Nairobi again in 2027 and become president in 2032.
Let us be honest.
1) Sakaja is in UDA.If he wants to be re-elected governor in 2027,He needs Gachagua and othe GEMA MCAs to win re-election in 2027.If GEMA sabotages him in 2027,He looses to the ODM candidate.
(2) He needs to share the stolen Money with Gachagua more than Mudavadi.If Azimio MCAs impeach him,Then the UDA senators can save him.Take a look at Meru, Majority MCAs are from Azimio, They partnered with UDA and impeached her but UDA senators saved her.So if in the worst case scenario Sakaja gets impeached in senate,Azimio and GEMA senators will rubber-stamp the impeachment because they know he is a threat.
(3) 2027 will be the beginning of a warfare in GEMA on who will be the next GEMA leader because Gachagua can't sell nationally.So we may have Ichungwa Vs wamatangi in Kiambu and Ndindi Vs Kangata in Muranga for gubernatorial elections.I don't know how strong Ndindi is but if can beat Kangata and Ichungwa looses to wamatangi,Ndindi will become the new Mt Kenya leader and can easily deputise Sakaja.So that said,Sakaja needs to keep an eye on Gachagua for protection in the senate and re-election and secondly Ndindi and Ichungwa for a possible running mate in 2023.
You have to think 20 years ahead.Ruto knew he couldn't be president in 2002 or 2013,So formed strong partnerships.If Sakaja steals 300MN monthly,100MN should go to GEMA without negotiation.
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Pundit see this from a mluhya mwenyewe
https://fb.watch/hOEbo3YlbI/
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I am seeing video where Kikuyus are ratching attacks and building sakaja.