Pundit , I personally know Sakaja, Im one of the people who warned him when his strategy was to endear himself to NASA and vie for Governor under Railas umbrella , He was some of the few individuals who were telling Mudavadi to stick with Raila. His was Uhuru Trojan horse . If Mudavadi would have not crossed to Rutos side Sakaja was going to be their Nairobi candidate.
So when you say Sakaja is like Ruto I laugh.
Ruto made Sakaja Governor together with bad moves by Azimio.
As for predicting Gachagua will be Dpork I did that when you were still rooting for Kiunjuri records are here they speak for themselves .
As for the bet I predicted with 100% accuracy Mudavadi will team up with Ruto you twisted it with Wetangula crossover and refused to pay the debt . I ve asked we meet and you severally said you fear me.
Im not Robina and wont start deviating on other things . Ruto performance etc.
As for duel Sakaja will be tied up on Nairobi politics that he will not venture outside . He most probably will face an impeachment motion and he will run to Raila however only Senate will save him.
I can see what Gachagua is trying to do however I dont support these kind of Raila politics , He is trying to consolidate GEMA so that once Ruto wins in 2027 all he will need to do is look for large tribe and give them DPORK, will he succeed we are yet to see personally I will not support These kind of Raila politics . He did it with NDP then Ruto and Uhuru copied the same style. I personally forsee a GEMA leader emerging organically, Most probably in the second term.
As for the Anti-Gema hate , this unfortunately has transformed to Anti Kalenjin hate reason no one can explain . I never in my lifetime thought Mijikenda, Kambas , Turkana, Samburu, Masai , Pokot, Kisii would politicaly hate Kalenjins thats what is happening on the ground. Now it depends how Ruto can tactically tackle this new dynamic bearing in mind that Raila will try to divide RVGEMA this year with a cry of amending the constitution. Raila will try to do what he did in 2002. So when the Moist and anti Gema people like RVpundit are focusing on fighting and dumping GEMA , Raila is there watching and salivating.
This hilarious. Sakaja has been lucky or has taken cold calculated political moves since campus - just like Ruto. You can imagine in 10yrs time how incredibly luckly he will be.
I deal with real politics and predicted Gachagua will be DPORK when you were huffing and puffing. Told you Weta and maDVD were heading to Ruto...didnt pay the bet and lost my respect.
My business is to study politics for what it is and make predictions.
Here are my predictions.
1) Ruto will 100% transform kenya into law abiding prosperous united society. The politics as we know will change. There will be national popular calls to ammend the Katiba to remove the term limit and allow Ruto to continue in 2032. Ruto if he wants will be able to marshal the numbers required to remove term limits.
2) Sakaja versus maDVD duel will come soon. If Sakaja wins - he will become Kenya president. He has more pathways to presidency as he is more likeable across the board.
3) GEMA succession war will go on - it will have Ruto, Gachagua, Ndidi, Kimani, Kindiki, Irungu kangata. Gachagua has made early moves and as DPORK is definitely one foot inside statehouse. If anything happen to Ruto he is PORK.
Gachagua like former Mau Mau has to realize it's time to come out of forest now and behave in a civilized manner. You cannot be speaking raw tribalism. He needs to be sophisticated.
4) Ruto has far as I know has not promised anybody any support. There might be pressure before 2027 for him to declare his GEMA successor. That will only happen if GEMA would have settled down on Gachagua as their leader. I doubt they will.
So far Irungu Kangata really impresses me with his politics and his work as governor. Kimani Ichungwa is struggling as majority leader and Ndidi Nyoro seem overwhelmed already.
Kimani need to really work on his leadership skills and win the support of all Mps - that will bring him back to contention - because majority leader is huge platform.
In conclusion I see 1) Ruto succeeding himself 2) Gachagua 3) Sakaja 4) Irungu Kangata - and the rest.
Political Theory class. In real politics
1.Uhuru made SakajaTNA chair he was just a proxy say like Muthama is UDA chairman without any command of Ukambani or Mbadi is ODM chairman without any command of Luoland.
2. Uhuru secured Sakaja Mp Nomination . He was never an elected MP
3.He became a Senator by Riding on Sonkos popularity and by virtue of being in Jubilee who were voting three piece . He was also lucky that ODM bungled their primaries and fielding a weak candidate in the name of Sifuna.
4.For Governor same story like no 3 . Azimios mistake was fielding a weak candidate by the name of Polycarp Igathe. Ruto ensured he got a direct nomination.He would have been beaten by Wetangulas Bro.
Winning Nairobi Governor is different political dynamics compared to National politics. Everyone know this . Your biggest mistake is same as Railas you hope Rift Valley can play politics of betrayal in 2032 and field a Sabaot for Presidency with backing of Raila and his base.
Number one by now the tables have changed and its the onus of Kalenjin to show they can lead the country change the unemployment rates , change the economy if they think it will all be about looting then we will be back to Mois era people will want to do away with Nyayo and will refuse another Moi.
Now for GEMA a leader will come out organically its just the nature of politics . You might be suprised it will not be the ones you have listed.
