Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: KenyanPlato on December 19, 2022, 05:34:48 PM
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they have refused to agree to debt restructuring
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ghana-announces-external-debt-payment-suspension-slipping-into-default-2022-12-19/
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Yes they are fu.cked.
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they have refused to agree to debt restructuring
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ghana-announces-external-debt-payment-suspension-slipping-into-default-2022-12-19/
They shouda hve avoided that as a plaque, but its bad financial advise.
On a personal level when you dont pay your bills, trust is lost from relatives etc. same goes for a country
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I keep saying that the only solution if you are in sub-saharan africa today is to immigrate. I saw kenyan politicians posting pics of themselves enjoying the world cup final while the average kenyan is suffering. Wode Maya tried to see africans in the diaspora this illusion that africa was rising, but the truth always comes out.
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How different is Ghana from the situation we are in right now?
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They have almost defaulted like Zambia and Ethiopia; we are still long way to get there.
Similarities - we are all locked out of the eurobond or commercial debt market
Kenya gov can probably still borrow from external commercial banks - but interest will be a killer.
We also have IMF program existing and generally in good books with west now
Our domestic debt market is liquid.
Kshs is under pressure
Big difference is really we got a new gov that is aware of what need to be done.
1) We need to really cut down the budget - 300B is great because we had set to borrow 250b externally - that looks unlikely as the external debt market look volatile - so that takes of the pressure
2) We need to get dollars from bilateral creditors including Chinese.
3) KRA need to collect the 2.4 trillion - from 2.1 trillion. That is an extra 300B. Or about 15% up. We are 10% up in the first 5 months - so still achievable.
CBK should religiously guard it dollars - and not intervene.
Ghana is gone - have defaulted both in domestic and external market - and that takes decade plus to repair.
We still have 2023 - breather. In 2024 is when we have to pay 3 billion dollars for Eurobond in hard currency.
Ruto should watch macro-economic very seriously - and try see what import substitution can be done
In short we could also be gone if
How different is Ghana from the situation we are in right now?
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Kenya will need such imf kind of dollar support - to be used to pay debt.
Importers to sort themselves somehow.
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Honestly, how poor is Kenya that the government doesn't even have $450 million dollars? (and yet these politicians are busy posting pictures of themselves in Qatar where they no doubt flew first class and are no doubt staying at 5 star hotels) posting pictures from qatar and you run a government that can't even raise $450 million dollars.
Kenya is a dirt poor country. Africa is dirt poor.
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Kenya will need such imf kind of dollar support - to be used to pay debt.
Importers to sort themselves somehow.
Even after IMF dollar influx the KSH. is still weakening now at 3 months low, if it were truly free floating it'd be much lower. Meanwhile foreign investors are freeing NSE and other investment in droves. It's better to make hard choices now instead of tweaking on the margins hoping to somehow grow out of the foreign debt crises and weakening currency.
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Honestly, how poor is Kenya that the government doesn't even have $450 million dollars? (and yet these politicians are busy posting pictures of themselves in Qatar where they no doubt flew first class and are no doubt staying at 5 star hotels) posting pictures from qatar and you run a government that can't even raise $450 million dollars.
Kenya is a dirt poor country. Africa is dirt poor.
Kenya is poor. a very poor country. that why wazungus behave like they are gods. majority of our people are passionate poor. think about the average villager can't raise 100 dollars for an emergency
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There is no evidence CBK has intervened in the market since 2020.
In fact CBK always wanted Kshs to depreciate by 20% - this crisis has done it for them.
KSH has done really well compared to many - depreciating by 9% year to date
That is how much Euros and etc are doing.
Even after IMF dollar influx the KSH. is still weakening now at 3 months low, if it were truly free floating it'd be much lower. Meanwhile foreign investors are freeing NSE and other investment in droves. It's better to make hard choices now instead of tweaking on the margins hoping to somehow grow out of the foreign debt crises and weakening currency.
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the average villager can't raise 100 dollars for an emergency
$100 dollars? Weren't people here saying 5 shillings is a lot of money? Honestly, I don't think they can even raise $10 dollars.
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Some people here live in their own world. Most people in Kenya do not have 1k in their pockets. Talk of $100!
$100 dollars? Weren't people here saying 5 shillings is a lot of money? Honestly, I don't think they can even raise $10 dollars.
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the average villager can't raise 100 dollars for an emergency
$100 dollars? Weren't people here saying 5 shillings is a lot of money? Honestly, I don't think they can even raise $10 dollars.
EXACTLY!!!
The middle class was wiped out and then the well off have started feasting on the poor. There is no policy in place to build a strong middle class.