Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on April 09, 2022, 07:47:21 AM
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Friends,
During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.
In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.
After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.
In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.
If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?
Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August.That's a JOKE.
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Jaduong , Ruto is winning because GEMA is on his side.
Simple and clear , You say Uhuru won with 3.2 M GEMA votes in 2013. Ruto owns that support now.
To win Kenyan elections under current constituion you need GEMA votes.
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Jaramogi got 15% and Raila got 10% in 1992 and 1997 - how do you expect he will win - when he is back to default mode of being a Luo party.
Friends,
During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.
In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.
After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.
In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.
If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?
Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August.That's a JOKE.
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You dont need GEMA votes to win - you need 50% plus one - there are 42 tribes that can give you many permutation and combination to win PORK
For example in 2005 - Luhya+Kalenjin+Luo+Kamba - gave the Nos - a 58%.
With GEMA - on your side - you're half way to 50%( 25%) - and need one big tribe at 15% to take you to 40% - then play the battleground
Without GEMA - you need three big tribes (Luhya, Kalenjin, kamba or Luos) - depending on combination you get 35-40% - then play the battleground.
All the Big 5 tribes in Kenya are roughly 20+15+15+10+10 (Kikuyus, Luhyas,Kalenjin, Luos & Kambas)=70%. The remainder smaller tribes are 30% - these are normally the battle ground - and you can easily get half of that - 15% - so I would say try to get 35% from big tribes.
Raila is struggling because Luo+Kamba alliance at best is 20% of the vote...half Luhyas takes you 27% - therefore he is dead on arrival - because he has to take almost all the battle ground tribes - which is impossibility
Jaduong , Ruto is winning because GEMA is on his side.
Simple and clear , You say Uhuru won with 3.2 M GEMA votes in 2013. Ruto owns that support now.
To win Kenyan elections under current constituion you need GEMA votes.
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RV a united GEMA needs just topups to win. Thats why Raila wanted BBI.
Ruto is winning because of GEMA , same formulae UhuRuto used in 2013 and 2017 and Raila was hellbound to disrupt using BBI Uhuru and the PKs.
You dont need GEMA votes to win - you need 50% plus one - there are 42 tribes that can give you many permutation and combination to win PORK
For example in 2005 - Luhya+Kalenjin+Luo+Kamba - gave the Nos - a 58%.
With GEMA - on your side - you're half way to 50%( 25%) - and need one big tribe at 15% to take you to 40% - then play the battleground
Without GEMA - you need three big tribes (Luhya, Kalenjin, kamba or Luos) - depending on combination you get 35-40% - then play the battleground.
All the Big 5 tribes in Kenya are roughly 20+15+15+10+10 (Kikuyus, Luhyas,Kalenjin, Luos & Kambas)=70%. The remainder smaller tribes are 30% - these are normally the battle ground - and you can easily get half of that - 15% - so I would say try to get 35% from big tribes.
Raila is struggling because Luo+Kamba alliance at best is 20% of the vote...half Luhyas takes you 27% - therefore he is dead on arrival - because he has to take almost all the battle ground tribes - which is impossibility
Jaduong , Ruto is winning because GEMA is on his side.
Simple and clear , You say Uhuru won with 3.2 M GEMA votes in 2013. Ruto owns that support now.
To win Kenyan elections under current constituion you need GEMA votes.
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I dont dispute that united GEMA are the deciding factor in this election - but not always. GEMA alone can get you at best 28 percent - of the vote - let say 30 percent - you still need 20 percent out there. If you dont get one of Big 5 tribes...you cannot win.If GEMA split like in 1990s - then it become harder - in short there are many permutations and combinations to become PORK.
GEMA is biggest single united bloc - so anyone who get it start at very strong advantage. But remember GEMA is also albatross because strong Anti-GEMA (kikuyu) sentiments in most of the battleground. Therefore it can be a poisoned chalice like it was to Kibaki/Matiba/Uhuru who struggle to get votes outside GEMA. Uhuru for example did very badly in coast, luhyas, kambas, luos - did okay in Gusii - and therefore without Kalenjin - he wont have become PORK.
Moi beat Kibaki in 1997 because of anti-Kikuyu sentiments - gave Moi big push in Non-GEMA areas. Kibaki only got Gusii votes and few Kambas by Munyao (I know DP in out being a member for a decade).
Moi had built the anti-kikuyu (principally anti-big tribe) alliance - but went 360 like UHuru is doing - and endorse a Kikuyu - leading to death of KANU - that anti-Kikuyu alliance became ODM (with Raila unlike MOi being very upfront about it being anti-kikuyu party) - and that ODM has slowly and surely dissipated - and today anti-kikuyism is dying.
I think on august ODM will die like KANU. It's raison' detre of existing has ended- Azimio crew cannot talk about Kikuyu (and now Kalenjin) propaganda - without makiing Uhuru-Gideon uncomfortable. This another KANU 2002 moment. So far I project ODM will struggle to get 30 mps and 5 governors. It's dying.
RV a united GEMA needs just topups to win. Thats why Raila wanted BBI.
Ruto is winning because of GEMA , same formulae UhuRuto used in 2013 and 2017 and Raila was hellbound to disrupt using BBI Uhuru and the PKs.
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Jaramogi got 15% and Raila got 10% in 1992 and 1997 - how do you expect he will win - when he is back to default mode of being a Luo party.
Friends,
Moi used to win because there was no 50 + 1 Rule.
If there was a runoff in 1992 or 1997 and jaramogi or raila support matiba or kibaki,Moi would have shit on his pant.
During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.
In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.
After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.
In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.
If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?
Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August.That's a JOKE.
Without GEMA vote Moi used to get 36% and 40% in 1992 and 1997 election while Raila and Jaramogi got 17% in 1992 and 1997 election.
Let ua put that into perspective,Moi used to get 60% coastal vote,40% luhya vote and i think 60% Kamba vote,If you therefore remove coast ukambani and luhya,He would have been down tp maybe 25% the same rank as Raila with his 17% vote.
Raila has inherited Coastal,Western ans Ukambani vote which has moved him from 17% in 1997 to 44% in 2017 WITHOUT GEMA.
NOW IN 2022,Raila has his previous 44% VOTE BLOCK INTACT at 44%,As long as he gets 30% GEMA vote he is at 56% less 5% from 61% Kibaki win in 2002 because of Mudavadi and Weta 5% National vote frpm maragoli and bukusu.
Unlike Moi Ruto has no control of North Eastern,Coast,Luhya and Kamba and a divided GEMA vote cannot supplement his numbers.
Its Raila 56% 2022 5TH PORK.
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2 factors you need to consider when talking of 90s .
1. You needed wimple majority to become President.
2. GEMA was divided.
As we speak now you need 50%+1 to win Presidency and secondly because of bogeyman Raila they are more united than anything. Once Raila is out of the scene , they will be divided once again.
I dont dispute that united GEMA are the deciding factor in this election - but not always. GEMA alone can get you at best 28 percent - of the vote - let say 30 percent - you still need 20 percent out there. If you dont get one of Big 5 tribes...you cannot win.If GEMA split like in 1990s - then it become harder - in short there are many permutations and combinations to become PORK.
GEMA is biggest single united bloc - so anyone who get it start at very strong advantage. But remember GEMA is also albatross because strong Anti-GEMA (kikuyu) sentiments in most of the battleground. Therefore it can be a poisoned chalice like it was to Kibaki/Matiba/Uhuru who struggle to get votes outside GEMA. Uhuru for example did very badly in coast, luhyas, kambas, luos - did okay in Gusii - and therefore without Kalenjin - he wont have become PORK.
Moi beat Kibaki in 1997 because of anti-Kikuyu sentiments - gave Moi big push in Non-GEMA areas. Kibaki only got Gusii votes and few Kambas by Munyao (I know DP in out being a member for a decade).
Moi had built the anti-kikuyu (principally anti-big tribe) alliance - but went 360 like UHuru is doing - and endorse a Kikuyu - leading to death of KANU - that anti-Kikuyu alliance became ODM (with Raila unlike MOi being very upfront about it being anti-kikuyu party) - and that ODM has slowly and surely dissipated - and today anti-kikuyism is dying.
I think on august ODM will die like KANU. It's raison' detre of existing has ended- Azimio crew cannot talk about Kikuyu (and now Kalenjin) propaganda - without makiing Uhuru-Gideon uncomfortable. This another KANU 2002 moment. So far I project ODM will struggle to get 30 mps and 5 governors. It's dying.
RV a united GEMA needs just topups to win. Thats why Raila wanted BBI.
Ruto is winning because of GEMA , same formulae UhuRuto used in 2013 and 2017 and Raila was hellbound to disrupt using BBI Uhuru and the PKs.
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Githunguri moron..Raila got 10 percent in 1992 because ford k splintered into bukusu and Luo after succession war btw wamalwa and Raila.As we speak odm is just a glorified Luo party and it expected the hamorraging continue from 62 MPs to 30mps
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Githunguri moron..Raila got 10 percent in 1992 because ford k splintered into bukusu and Luo after succession war btw wamalwa and Raila.As we speak odm is just a glorified Luo party and it expected the hamorraging continue from 62 MPs to 30mps
In 1997-Western province-Raila 2% Moi 44% Wamalwa 48%.
In 2007-With Mudavadi was not an Mp while all senior luhya leaders from Kombo Weta Mukhisa etc,Raila got nearly 70% Luhya vote.
2013-2017 Raila has been at over 60% Luhya vote even without Mudavadi in 2013.
Raila popularity in the Luhya vote block has risen from 2% in 1997-65% in 2022.Is that not progress?Ruto has tried tp overthrow Raila from luhya land in 2014 and 2017 unsuccessfully.You think he will do that in 2022?
Now let the people here judge who is the moron.Me or you?
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Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto
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:o when were the elections held? Mizani?
Facts are stubborn:
-Luhya are split - half Bukusu are in DAP-K a very strong Azimio party.
-Raila party is Azimio not ODM. Focus. Without PORK UDA will be another big Jubilee which implode in a few months
Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto
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Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto
(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?
(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?
Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.
So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.
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Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto
(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?
(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?
Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.
So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.
Luhya are roughly split into bukusu & leaning, maragoli& leaning, others. KANU use to win maragoli & other with bukusu following muliro the wamalwa supporting ford kenya.Succesion battle btw mukhisa and kombo on who was to succeed Wamalwa finished them both and gave rise to Wetangula who benefited from Kibaki reward of Bukusu.Weta in 2013 went with Raila and 2017 too.Now he is team Ruto.Madvd control maragoli n related about 30 percent of luhyas.Others became kanu orphans and were inherited by Raila ldp later ODM. 2022 is easy Ruto will take 2/3 of luhya
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In 2007 in Bukusu land there was both Ford Kenya and New Ford Kenya and NARK Kenya supporting Kibaki. Mukhisa stood on NARK Kenya and lost to Ford Kenya.
Bukusu are in 3 Counties Mt Elgon, Transzoia and Bungoma. Stop using Provinces they no longer exist.
Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto
(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?
(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?
Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.
So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.
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Mukhisa and kombo engaged in war of kumalizana..each lost in their areas ... giving unlikely rise to Wetangula as bukusu leader... Bukusu are in Bungoma.. majority in 6 out of 8 const..with sabaot kalenjin and tachoni taking one each..they majority of luhya in Tranzoia.. generally taking 3 seats..they also take one seat in kakamega in likuyani..and Westland where Weta brother Tim has been mp.Mt Elgon Is not a county
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Friends,
During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.
In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.
After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.
In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.
If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?
Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August. That's a JOKE.
Do you listen to yourself? Ruto was strong then, but now that he has brought mighty Gema and the rest of the country by his side, you can only conclude that he is very strong. You have to be an absolute idiot not to see what is unfolding in Kenya. Uhuru and Raila will be fighting tooth and nail to befriend Ruto after the elections. On the other hand, Ruto, as President will be fighting tooth and nail to make sure they become irrelevant in Kenya's politics, after, of course, getting swindled!
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What Weta lacks in charisma (unlike muliro or wamalwa kijana) he makes up by deep pockets and unmatched thuggery led by his brother in Bungoma town...opposing Weta is one of ways to die in Sirisia.Opposing echeza in mumias ESO mayoni n shebelle slums death.Kakamega town is run by thug called toto.Bundalangi and Busia is senseless thuggery similar to Luo Nyanza with migori especially very violent
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Friends,
During the 1992 election,Moi ensured Kikuyu Luo Luhya in Rift valley did not vote.He beat the hell out of them using fhe provincial administration with the likes of Rigathi Gachagua.He only managed 36% while in 1997 he got 40%.
In 2002,With a divided Kikuyu vote,United KAMATUSA (Kalenjin Maasai Turkana Samburu) and Musalia Mudavadi + Ruto on his side uhuru managed a meagre 32%.
After the 2005 referendum,Ruto became the kalenjin point man and in 2010 referendum,He tried his luck.Together with the church and his KAMATUSA block,He managed 32% if not for the church He would have been down to maybe 25%.
In 2013,Out of all vote cast for MPs,Uhuru Kikuyu TNA had3.4MN votes,Raila Luo Odm had 2.6MN and Ruto Kalenjin URP had 1.5MN votes.
If you look at all these factors and the state machinery being used against him,How will Ruto win August 9,2022 election?How?
Only a MAD MAN or PURE NARCISST belives RUTO can become president on August. That's a JOKE.
Do you listen to yourself? Ruto was strong then, but now that he has brought mighty Gema and the rest of the country by his side, you can only conclude that he is very strong. You have to be an absolute idiot not to see what is unfolding in Kenya. Uhuru and Raila will be fighting tooth and nail to befriend Ruto after the elections. On the other hand, Ruto, as President will be fighting tooth and nail to make sure they become irrelevant in Kenya's politics, after, of course, getting swindled!
Ruto single handly worked on luhya until jubilee tawe of 2013 became 30 percent..he has not stopped there and was already at 40 percent without madvd +Weta.I expected Ruto to score 70 or even 80 percent of luhya.Ruto will demand half shareholding in Kenyatta n Moi empire or he crushes them.For Raila he will crush him and liberate Luos.. hakuna deal he can make with broke old Raila
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(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?
(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?
Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.
So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.
Mdvd lost Luhya 2002 and 2013 while running for VP and PORK. This time he is going for Treasury CS but will somehow deliver Luhya.
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What destroyed Kibaki in Western is Kikuyuism..
That said MaDvD has no votes anywhere in western. Unless he runs for president. Luhyas just don't admire Deputy Presidentship.
But I see Ruto has got into the Raila trap of thinking once he has a tribal demagogue his tribe will vote for him. That worked for Moi because the demagogues had popular traditional support through say Akamba Union, Etc. Weta hasn't got that neither does Mudavadi.
In fact the era of demagogues is over. It's now about hitting the ground capturing churches and corrupting the tools of state from NIS operatives to county officials- not to get you votes but to stay away blind as you get votes.
Both candidates lack committed folks. They need to borrow from communist organic operations. Here you get a few people thoroughly committed to the cause where even when remaining with 5 shillings change they'll bring it back. There's no cause.
I recall our struggle against Kibaki in 2007. They could only rig but we reached a stage where citizens collected all "Kikuyu money" and surrendered it. We ran propaganda programs against bribery. That was a time!
Today it's bodaboda who are political malayas.
If Ruto has run out of money then he should hope Raila's aversion to bribery stands firm. Ruto designed his campaign on money... lots of money. He gets a chance if he has money. If he's fallen short he should cut his losses, push Gachagua and support him. That would be a NIGHTMARE scenario for Uhuru!
(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentar
Luhya are roughly split into bukusu & leaning, mar
i& leaning, others. KANU use to win maragoli & other with bukusu following muliro the wamalwa supporting ford kenya.Succesion battle btw mukhisa and kombo on who was to succeed Wamalwa finished them both and gave rise to Wetangula who benefited from Kibaki reward of Bukusu.Weta in 2013 went with Raila and 2017 too.Now he is team Ruto.Madvd control maragoli n related about 30 percent of luhyas.Others became kanu orphans and were inherited by Raila ldp later ODM. 2022 is easy Ruto will take 2/3 of luhya
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What destroyed Kibaki in Western is Kikuyuism..
That said MaDvD has no votes anywhere in western. Unless he runs for president. Luhyas just don't admire Deputy Presidentship.
But I see Ruto has got into the Raila trap of thinking once he has a tribal demagogue his tribe will vote for him. That worked for Moi because the demagogues had popular traditional support through say Akamba Union, Etc. Weta hasn't got that neither does Mudavadi.
In fact the era of demagogues is over. It's now about hitting the ground capturing churches and corrupting the tools of state from NIS operatives to county officials- not to get you votes but to stay away blind as you get votes.
Both candidates lack committed folks. They need to borrow from communist organic operations. Here you get a few people thoroughly committed to the cause where even when remaining with 5 shillings change they'll bring it back. There's no cause.
I recall our struggle against Kibaki in 2007. They could only rig but we reached a stage where citizens collected all "Kikuyu money" and surrendered it. We ran propaganda programs against bribery. That was a time!
Today it's bodaboda who are political malayas.
If Ruto has run out of money then he should hope Raila's aversion to bribery stands firm. Ruto designed his campaign on money... lots of money. He gets a chance if he has money. If he's fallen short he should cut his losses, push Gachagua and support him. That would be a NIGHTMARE scenario for Uhuru!
(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentar
Luhya are roughly split into bukusu & leaning, mar
i& leaning, others. KANU use to win maragoli & other with bukusu following muliro the wamalwa supporting ford kenya.Succesion battle btw mukhisa and kombo on who was to succeed Wamalwa finished them both and gave rise to Wetangula who benefited from Kibaki reward of Bukusu.Weta in 2013 went with Raila and 2017 too.Now he is team Ruto.Madvd control maragoli n related about 30 percent of luhyas.Others became kanu orphans and were inherited by Raila ldp later ODM. 2022 is easy Ruto will take 2/3 of luhya
What are you saying?
Long,boring,non cohesive gibberish.
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Bukusu backed kibaki in 2007.They switched to Raila in 2013 and now Ruto
(1) How comes bukusu supported Kibaki and their leaders like Musikari Kombo,Mukhisa Kituyi lost their parliamentary seats?
(2) Bukusu are the largest luhya sub-tribe,If they supported Kibaki,How comes Raila got over 68% Luhua vote?
Rails support in Luhya land has always been on the increase even when Mudavadi their leader was on the ballot in 2013.
So I don't think anything will change.This time round when Kabila mbili slogan and Madvd Weta spoiler slogan will be deployed in western,It will be 85% western.
Luhya are roughly split into bukusu & leaning, maragoli& leaning, others. KANU use to win maragoli & other with bukusu following muliro the wamalwa supporting ford kenya.Succesion battle btw mukhisa and kombo on who was to succeed Wamalwa finished them both and gave rise to Wetangula who benefited from Kibaki reward of Bukusu.Weta in 2013 went with Raila and 2017 too.Now he is team Ruto.Madvd control maragoli n related about 30 percent of luhyas.Others became kanu orphans and were inherited by Raila ldp later ODM. 2022 is easy Ruto will take 2/3 of luhya
Everybody knows that Bukusu and Maragoli are the largest Luhya sub-tribes.
If Mudavadi couldn't deliver Maragoli vote to Uhuru/Ruto in 2002 and to make matters worse lost his parliamentary seat,Do you think he can do it now?
If Mudavadi couldn't unite 75% luhya in 2013 presidential race,Do you think he can unite them as a Minister for Finance in a Kalenjin government?The only place Madvd got more votes than Raila is vihiga 49% vs 46% in whole of western.
I repeat,If weta,kombo,mukhsia,Eugene,awori,soita shitanda couldn't deliver luhya vote to kibaki,you think weta and madvd can do it?
Rails got 2% luhya in 1997,20 years later he got 65% luhya vote against all luhya political leaders and government machinery,This time he will get 85% luhya vote.
That's why Ken Lusaka avoided Ruto like q plague yesterday.
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Politics is dynamic... majority of serious luhya leaders are backing Ruto...Ruto has created extensive network.. don't be desperate Ruto taking western...even without dpork...it's a reward of 10yrs engagement with western
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Politics is dynamic... majority of serious luhya leaders are backing Ruto...Ruto has created extensive network.. don't be desperate Ruto taking western...even without dpork...it's a reward of 10yrs engagement with western
(1) Which Majority Luhya leaders?
Echesa or Toto slum thugs?
(2) Which network?
Ruto has tried delivering Luhya vote to Uhuru in 2002,2013 and 2017,What miracle will happen this time?
UTALIJUA JIJI.
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Ruto delivered western from 4 percent in 2013 to 30 percent in 2017 with more than ten MPs... Ruto has visited western almost every village..has softened the ground..madvd and Weta is the icing on the cake.its going to be 70 percent versus 30 percent..the cooperation of uda, ford k and anc is already paying fruits and their cohesiveness attracting voters.Meanwhile Azimio ni Fujo Tupu na Matusi
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Ruto delivered western from 4 percent in 2013 to 30 percent in 2017 with more than ten MPs... Ruto has visited western almost every village..has softened the ground..madvd and Weta is the icing on the cake.its going to be 70 percent versus 30 percent..the cooperation of uda, ford k and anc is already paying fruits and their cohesiveness attracting voters.Meanwhile Azimio ni Fujo Tupu na Matusi
Ruto must have got luhya mps from by bungoma and transzoia where there are kalenjins and sabaot...How many jubilee Mps do we have in kakamega busia bungoma etc?How many?
The only reason Madvd and weta got MPs in 2017 is their association with Raila..in 2013 madvd got votes because he was running for presidency this time...with madvd being UDA cashier..he will be stoned like in 2002 in vhiga.
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Ruto delivered western from 4 percent in 2013 to 30 percent in 2017 with more than ten MPs... Ruto has visited western almost every village..has softened the ground..madvd and Weta is the icing on the cake.its going to be 70 percent versus 30 percent..the cooperation of uda, ford k and anc is already paying fruits and their cohesiveness attracting voters.Meanwhile Azimio ni Fujo Tupu na Matusi
Ruto must have got luhya mps from by bungoma and transzoia where there are kalenjins and sabaot...How many jubilee Mps do we have in kakamega busia bungoma etc?How many?
The only reason Madvd and weta got MPs in 2017 is their association with Raila..in 2013 madvd got votes because he was running for presidency this time...with madvd being UDA cashier..he will be stoned like in 2002 in vhiga.
Your need understand the dynamics at play every election.Madvd in 2002 revolted against moi then last minute switched back to kanu and was appointed vice president.In 2013 he was lied to by Uhuru and jubilee got zero votes..for that mockery of handing over to MaDvD.In 2017 Ruto blocked madvd incorporation to Jubilee and allowed wamalwa in..madvd went to Raila..Ruto delivered 30 percent by launching roads, electricity and getting new ford Kenya of Lusaka & wamalwa.This election in luhya is about two issues..Raila is blamed for taking handshake to Kisumu only, betraying madvd and Weta...the other luhya viewpoint is opposed to chain chain btw kalenjin & Kikuyus sees Raila as chance for outsider to final break the hegemony
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Long,boring,non cohesive gibberish.
1. I'm not here to entertain you.
2. I didn't force you to read my piece
3. Reading your own gibberish I'm shocked you have the effrontery to comment on my post. Its beyond the limit of your intellect
4. You got yourself an enemy before you even know him.
Mbwa na baradhuli
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Look at the idiocy of the latest idiot masquerading as an expert on Luhya vote. He doesn't know that Jubilee got MPs in Kakamega. He is such an idiot believing saboats elected Jubilee in Bungoma. Jubilee got MPs in Bungoma and bought others after elections.
These are the fools Raila is relying on to win an election! How do you get into punditry over an election without studying and internalizing the data? I'm not even involved but know the figures for every county from scanning the results after the 2017 election for the petition.
I'm still better than a fool claiming he is an expert.
Ruto is making genius moves around the country. He has skillfully thrown the terrible economy off his laps in to the hands of Uhuru and Raila's lap. It's only genius that he's running against a government in which he's 2nd in command. Only Ronald Reagan has managed to pull it off in California and twice as president.
And who to fight him? Githunguri wa meno rangi.
Ruto delivered western from 4 percent in 2013 to 30 percent in 2017 with more than ten MPs... Ruto has visited western almost every village..has softened the ground..madvd and Weta is the icing on the cake.its going to be 70 percent versus 30 percent..the cooperation of uda, ford k and anc is already paying fruits and their cohesiveness attracting voters.Meanwhile Azimio ni Fujo Tupu na Matusi
Ruto must have got luhya mps from by bungoma and transzoia where there are kalenjins and sabaot...How many jubilee Mps do we have in kakamega busia bungoma etc?How many?
The only reason Madvd and weta got MPs in 2017 is their association with Raila..in 2013 madvd got votes because he was running for presidency this time...with madvd being UDA cashier..he will be stoned like in 2002 in vhiga.