?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Raila has overtaken Ruto in Radio Africa poll. 49% to 42%. The same people who've been flaunting these same polls from this same pollster will now throw tantrums! 0nly 70% for baba in NEP, is what I have doubts about!
— Mohamed Wehliye, MBS (@WehliyeMohamed) March 14, 2022
By May, there will be no contest in sha Allah! pic.twitter.com/xw3IteVxm1
Link please.
Funnily, they haven't released them in full, just the DP choices. But I saw on someone's tweet. It's not 49% vs 42%: That's a different question. (Who do you think will win?)
On the question 'Who will you vote for if elections were held today?' the result is 47% (Baba) and 43% (Samoei)
Comparing with Mizani, the differences I noticed were:
1) Raila's performance in Central and upper Eastern is much better: They give him high 20s (like 28%) in Central) and nearly 40 in Upper Eastern (38%).
2) Western is nearly 50-50 split compared to Mizani where Baba is like 58% Western. Here it's more like High 40s Baba and lower 40s Ruto.
3) Nyanza has Raila like 80s: I don't know how they did their sampling. If well-distributed, then it means they are giving Raila a bigger chunk of Gusii than Mizani.
4) Mizani split N.E. almost 50-50, here Raila has a huge chunk. I think closer to 70%
The rest are pretty similar to Mizani.
They also say the polling closed on the day Kaloi toshad Rao, so I'm not sure how much the excitement of that day factored into it.
Whatever the case, seems to be showing the same trend in Mizani of the kawaida faultlines in the old provinces beginning to show up clearly as in the past three elections, basically since 2007 with the exception of RV which switched sides starting 2013.
Funnily, they haven't released them in full, just the DP choices. But I saw on someone's tweet. It's not 49% vs 42%: That's a different question. (Who do you think will win?)
On the question 'Who will you vote for if elections were held today?' the result is 47% (Baba) and 43% (Samoei)
Comparing with Mizani, the differences I noticed were:
1) Raila's performance in Central and upper Eastern is much better: They give him high 20s (like 28%) in Central) and nearly 40 in Upper Eastern (38%).
2) Western is nearly 50-50 split compared to Mizani where Baba is like 58% Western. Here it's more like High 40s Baba and lower 40s Ruto.
3) Nyanza has Raila like 80s: I don't know how they did their sampling. If well-distributed, then it means they are giving Raila a bigger chunk of Gusii than Mizani.
4) Mizani split N.E. almost 50-50, here Raila has a huge chunk. I think closer to 70%
The rest are pretty similar to Mizani.
They also say the polling closed on the day Kaloi toshad Rao, so I'm not sure how much the excitement of that day factored into it.
Whatever the case, seems to be showing the same trend in Mizani of the kawaida faultlines in the old provinces beginning to show up clearly as in the past three elections, basically since 2007 with the exception of RV which switched sides starting 2013.
https://m.facebook.com/robertalai/posts/514375016721337
Lol, this is very interesting. You have stories circulating about Samoei allegedly asking the Star to ignore/not-publish these opinion polls. You also have Rigathi warning not to take them seriously here:
Ok, I doubt even this Radio Africa poll, too.
The Western figures are questionable but nowhere close to lower Eastern! Ati both Raila and Ruto beat Kaloi in Ukambani????? How? Or maybe it was after Kalonzo said he was entering talks with Azimio? Maybe the Kambas were expecting him to back RAO and so answered per 2-horse-race mindset?
Ok, I doubt even this Radio Africa poll, too.
The Western figures are questionable but nowhere close to lower Eastern! Ati both Raila and Ruto beat Kaloi in Ukambani????? How? Or maybe it was after Kalonzo said he was entering talks with Azimio? Maybe the Kambas were expecting him to back RAO and so answered per 2-horse-race mindset?
Kalonzo had been in open talks with Azimio for a while before Sunday. Sagana 3 and Azimio big launch is what the Star story credits with the Raila rise.
The first time you did a Siberia in Nipate was after Msambeweni byelections where you were always quoting Opinion polls as the reason ODM will carry the day only for the party to fail.
You are here again making the same mistake .
Aug 09 you will do another Siberia and this time it will be for good.