Raila 49%,Ruto 42%.Star poll

[Pajero]

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Raila has overtaken Ruto in Radio Africa poll. 49% to 42%. The same people who&#39;ve been flaunting these same polls from this same pollster will now throw tantrums! 0nly 70% for baba in NEP, is what I have doubts about! <br>By May, there will be no contest in sha Allah! <a href="https://t.co/xw3IteVxm1">pic.twitter.com/xw3IteVxm1</a></p>&mdash; Mohamed Wehliye, MBS (@WehliyeMohamed) <a href="

Raila has overtaken Ruto in Radio Africa poll. 49% to 42%. The same people who've been flaunting these same polls from this same pollster will now throw tantrums! 0nly 70% for baba in NEP, is what I have doubts about!
By May, there will be no contest in sha Allah! pic.twitter.com/xw3IteVxm1

— Mohamed Wehliye, MBS (@WehliyeMohamed) March 14, 2022

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RV Pundit]

There were rumours of such polls being prepped..so take with lost of salt..infotrak is probably busy cooking one

[RV Pundit]

Interesting it data on their punditry..who they thought would win..but not who they will vote for.. propaganda kweli

[Nefertiti]

Link please.

[Nefertiti]

I am waiting for Ipsos. And maybe Infotrak. Tifa after bizarre Msambweni goof wrecked their short track record.

Mizani and such briefcase nope.

[Dear Mami]

Link please.

Funnily, they haven't released them in full, just the DP choices. But I saw on someone's tweet. It's not 49% vs 42%: That's a different question. (Who do you think will win?)

On the question 'Who will you vote for if elections were held today?' the result is 47% (Baba) and 43% (Samoei)

Comparing with Mizani, the differences I noticed were:

1) Raila's performance in Central and upper Eastern is much better: They give him high 20s (like 28%) in Central) and nearly 40 in Upper Eastern (38%).
2) Western is nearly 50-50 split compared to Mizani where Baba is like 58% Western. Here it's more like High 40s Baba and lower 40s Ruto.
3) Nyanza has Raila like 80s: I don't know how they did their sampling. If well-distributed, then it means they are giving Raila a bigger chunk of Gusii than Mizani.
4) Mizani split N.E. almost 50-50, here Raila has a huge chunk. I think closer to 70%

The rest are pretty similar to Mizani.

They also say the polling closed on the day Kaloi toshad Rao, so I'm not sure how much the excitement of that day factored into it.

Whatever the case, seems to be showing the same trend in Mizani of the kawaida faultlines in the old provinces beginning to show up clearly as in the past three elections, basically since 2007 with the exception of RV which switched sides starting 2013.

[Nefertiti]

Funnily, they haven't released them in full, just the DP choices. But I saw on someone's tweet. It's not 49% vs 42%: That's a different question. (Who do you think will win?)

On the question 'Who will you vote for if elections were held today?' the result is 47% (Baba) and 43% (Samoei)

Comparing with Mizani, the differences I noticed were:

1) Raila's performance in Central and upper Eastern is much better: They give him high 20s (like 28%) in Central) and nearly 40 in Upper Eastern (38%).
2) Western is nearly 50-50 split compared to Mizani where Baba is like 58% Western. Here it's more like High 40s Baba and lower 40s Ruto.
3) Nyanza has Raila like 80s: I don't know how they did their sampling. If well-distributed, then it means they are giving Raila a bigger chunk of Gusii than Mizani.
4) Mizani split N.E. almost 50-50, here Raila has a huge chunk. I think closer to 70%

The rest are pretty similar to Mizani.

They also say the polling closed on the day Kaloi toshad Rao, so I'm not sure how much the excitement of that day factored into it.

Whatever the case, seems to be showing the same trend in Mizani of the kawaida faultlines in the old provinces beginning to show up clearly as in the past three elections, basically since 2007 with the exception of RV which switched sides starting 2013.

There should be a link to the source in the tweet. Unless it's fake news.

[Nefertiti]

Funnily, they haven't released them in full, just the DP choices. But I saw on someone's tweet. It's not 49% vs 42%: That's a different question. (Who do you think will win?)

On the question 'Who will you vote for if elections were held today?' the result is 47% (Baba) and 43% (Samoei)

Comparing with Mizani, the differences I noticed were:

1) Raila's performance in Central and upper Eastern is much better: They give him high 20s (like 28%) in Central) and nearly 40 in Upper Eastern (38%).
2) Western is nearly 50-50 split compared to Mizani where Baba is like 58% Western. Here it's more like High 40s Baba and lower 40s Ruto.
3) Nyanza has Raila like 80s: I don't know how they did their sampling. If well-distributed, then it means they are giving Raila a bigger chunk of Gusii than Mizani.
4) Mizani split N.E. almost 50-50, here Raila has a huge chunk. I think closer to 70%

The rest are pretty similar to Mizani.

They also say the polling closed on the day Kaloi toshad Rao, so I'm not sure how much the excitement of that day factored into it.

Whatever the case, seems to be showing the same trend in Mizani of the kawaida faultlines in the old provinces beginning to show up clearly as in the past three elections, basically since 2007 with the exception of RV which switched sides starting 2013.

I really doubt Mizani... likely a Ruto hack. NEP is Azimio fullhouse - their 50-50 is illogical like Ukambani. Only their Coast numbers make sense.

[Githunguri]

Raila will win with 53-54%.

[Nefertiti]

Star on youtube says Raila 47% vs 43% Ruto

[Dear Mami]

Yep! That's the one. They hadn't put it out yet. Seems they now have. Just saw the breakdowns being discussed. I don't know who these Radio Africa people are. We'll have to use these+Mizani types till the known pollsters start. Don't know why they haven't started yet. They should be putting out at least one or two a month by now.

[Nefertiti]

https://m.facebook.com/robertalai/posts/514375016721337

[Nowayhaha]

Radio Africa is owned by Raila Friend Patrick Quarcoo

https://m.facebook.com/robertalai/posts/514375016721337

[Dear Mami]

Lol, this is very interesting. You have stories circulating about Samoei allegedly asking the Star to ignore/not-publish these opinion polls. You also have Rigathi warning not to take them seriously here:

[Dear Mami]

Ok, I doubt even this Radio Africa poll, too.

The Western figures are questionable but nowhere close to lower Eastern! Ati both Raila and Ruto beat Kaloi in Ukambani????? How? Or maybe it was after Kalonzo said he was entering talks with Azimio? Maybe the Kambas were expecting him to back RAO and so answered per 2-horse-race mindset?

[Nefertiti]

Lol, this is very interesting. You have stories circulating about Samoei allegedly asking the Star to ignore/not-publish these opinion polls. You also have Rigathi warning not to take them seriously here:

Of course they have been touting the Ruto lead but you expect this now. They are very afraid of their smoke & mirrors show coming to an end especially in Central.

[Nefertiti]

Ok, I doubt even this Radio Africa poll, too.

The Western figures are questionable but nowhere close to lower Eastern! Ati both Raila and Ruto beat Kaloi in Ukambani????? How? Or maybe it was after Kalonzo said he was entering talks with Azimio? Maybe the Kambas were expecting him to back RAO and so answered per 2-horse-race mindset?

Kalonzo had been in open talks with Azimio for a while before Sunday. Sagana 3 and Azimio big launch is what the Star story credits with the Raila rise.

[Nowayhaha]

The first time you did a Siberia in Nipate was after Msambeweni byelections where you were always quoting  Opinion polls as the reason ODM will carry the day only for the party to fail.
You are here again making the same mistake .
Aug 09 you will do another Siberia and this time it will be for good.

Ok, I doubt even this Radio Africa poll, too.

The Western figures are questionable but nowhere close to lower Eastern! Ati both Raila and Ruto beat Kaloi in Ukambani????? How? Or maybe it was after Kalonzo said he was entering talks with Azimio? Maybe the Kambas were expecting him to back RAO and so answered per 2-horse-race mindset?

Kalonzo had been in open talks with Azimio for a while before Sunday. Sagana 3 and Azimio big launch is what the Star story credits with the Raila rise.

[Nefertiti]

Well i hope you have moved your kassins from RV. Once the warriors smell defeat the smiles will melt away. Be smart... talk with one leg out the door.

The first time you did a Siberia in Nipate was after Msambeweni byelections where you were always quoting  Opinion polls as the reason ODM will carry the day only for the party to fail.
You are here again making the same mistake .
Aug 09 you will do another Siberia and this time it will be for good.

[RV Pundit]

This one like Infotrak should be filled under cooked. The huge swing is obvious