Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on February 17, 2022, 06:34:13 AM
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Very interesting.
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Very interesting.
Kenyan politicians are conmen. Like Kalonzo, Kuria is making himself essential to be paid, rewarded, or compensated for 100K or so supporters he will bring on board. Kalonzo is probably demanding 3 billion because he estimates he has 1.2 billion kambas under lock and key. Kuria must be pressing 500M or so. It is easy to read these cheap washed-up politicians. Except for DP and a few others, these wicked politicians are all poor, broke, sick, and have low self-esteem.
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Yes he is hedging - but timing is essential - by the time he makes a decision - all the spoils will have been shared. Kalonzo has a week to take 1/4 of gov in Ruto - surebet or 1/3 in Azimio - in the wild bush. MaDVD and Weta moved in quickly and took their share. Once that is done - Kuria will find nothing to take.
If he is smart - he would play along UDA and wait to harvest from inevitable nomination fallout
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Yes he is hedging - but timing is essential - by the time he makes a decision - all the spoils will have been shared. Kalonzo has a week to take 1/4 of gov in Ruto - surebet or 1/3 in Azimio - in the wild bush. MaDVD and Weta moved in quickly and took their share. Once that is done - Kuria will find nothing to take.
If he is smart - he would play along UDA and wait to harvest from inevitable nomination fallout
He is new to the game of political hedging, so plunders are obvious. Worse as it is, he is way better than short guy from Laikipia. Mwangi Kiunjuri is taking a beating from mama simba daily. I think is is hiding right now, yet he was in Gachagua stature 18 months ago!
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Yes these boys dont know how to make deals. They dont have the killer instinct someone like Ruto has. You have to know when to go for the kill. You cannot afford to appear indecisive then you lose the people you want to use to negotiate with.
Kiunjuri, Wangui, Muturi, Moses, Tujibebe, Wa-Iria and all the neophytes are big jokers. Gachagua & Alice seem to know when to go for the kill - They are still playing team mate - but they knows when to time their "appoint me DPORK NOW" move. The rest like Moses are threatening and hedging months or years - giving Ruto ample time to reduce them to almost nothing.
It simple - stick to one side - prove your worth - and then time for the kill - when you threaten to go to the other side - unless something is done in 48 hours - and that has to be near major deadline. The other guy will have no option but to make a deal - he will have no wriggle room.
It how lions hunt - they dont go jumping at every opportunity or following the gazelle - they run along - until they are convinced the gazelle is tired or cornered - and they go for the kill - patience is key - adaptability important.
He is new to the game of political hedging, so plunders are obvious. Worse as it is, he is way better than short guy from Laikipia. Mwangi Kiunjuri is taking a beating from mama simba daily. I think is is hiding right now, yet he was in Gachagua stature 18 months ago!
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Lets wait until Saturday n see...I saw him with azimio la ujinga principals and agents in Dubai maybe was given between 500N-1BN
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No way. Even 100M Ksh will too much for Moses Kuria. These politicians are broke and during campaigns some will even beg for 20K.
Lets wait until Saturday n see...I saw him with azimio la ujinga principals and agents in Dubai maybe was given between 500N-1BN
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He might get nothing if kalonzo accept to join Kenya kwanza
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What is going on. ufool in dubai where ruto was a week back. After foreign envoys demanded for a free and fair elections?!
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One Mt Kenya county which Ruto needs to work hard on is Kiambu.
Ruto will get a majority of 75-80 % in other Mt Kenya counties but He needs to work extra hard in Kiambu.
In as much as Kuria is looking at a way to negotiate himself in the next Government he has some valid questions which if not handled well might explode and in turn hurt Rutos campaign.
His questions are why is UDA against Mt Kenya small parties but happily to form coalition with Ford K and ANC. This should be managed very well and if I were Ruto would have done what Uhuru did to the Mbus in 2016. Buy Kuria off ASAP.
This chest thumping which we are witnessing here is counter productive . It was the same behaviour by ODM in 2012 before they realised to win elections you need all. UhuRuto realised their mistake of 2013 and they bought Lusaka/Kiraitu/ Kiunjuri and even Munya for the 2017 elections.
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If they are not delusional to imagine they can engage UDA as equal; no problem; otherwise UDA has serious play inside Mt keny as whole; and will only negotiate with gazillion one-man party in Mt kenya on his terms - for me - it's not a priority.
They need to prove their worth - Moses kuria did prove himself in Juja and few by-election - but if he get outside hustler nation - I dont think he can survive for long.
So it's really two way traffic - they need to become reasonable and ask for one minister at best - otherwise Gachagua or Alice have the DPORK
One Mt Kenya county which Ruto needs to work hard on is Kiambu.
Ruto will get a majority of 75-80 % in other Mt Kenya counties but He needs to work extra hard in Kiambu.
In as much as Kuria is looking at a way to negotiate himself in the next Government he has some valid questions which if not handled well might explode and in turn hurt Rutos campaign.
His questions are why is UDA against Mt Kenya small parties but happily to form coalition with Ford K and ANC. This should be managed very well and if I were Ruto would have done what Uhuru did to the Mbus in 2016. Buy Kuria off ASAP.
This chest thumping which we are witnessing here is counter productive . It was the same behaviour by ODM in 2012 before they realised to win elections you need all. UhuRuto realised their mistake of 2013 and they bought Lusaka/Kiraitu/ Kiunjuri and even Munya for the 2017 elections.
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Gachagua and Alice are not from Kiambu. Nyeri and Muranga is Ruto locked . He needs a united Kiambu to back him and With Kiambu and Nakuru and sharing Nairobi he will be ahead.
Kiambu politics is a little bit different. Ruto needs to pacify any competition there.Kibaki knows too well what happened in 1997 and 2002.
If they are not delusional to imagine they can engage UDA as equal; no problem; otherwise UDA has serious play inside Mt keny as whole; and will only negotiate with gazillion one-man party in Mt kenya on his terms - for me - it's not a priority.
They need to prove their worth - Moses kuria did prove himself in Juja and few by-election - but if he get outside hustler nation - I dont think he can survive for long.
So it's really two way traffic - they need to become reasonable and ask for one minister at best - otherwise Gachagua or Alice have the DPORK
One Mt Kenya county which Ruto needs to work hard on is Kiambu.
Ruto will get a majority of 75-80 % in other Mt Kenya counties but He needs to work extra hard in Kiambu.
In as much as Kuria is looking at a way to negotiate himself in the next Government he has some valid questions which if not handled well might explode and in turn hurt Rutos campaign.
His questions are why is UDA against Mt Kenya small parties but happily to form coalition with Ford K and ANC. This should be managed very well and if I were Ruto would have done what Uhuru did to the Mbus in 2016. Buy Kuria off ASAP.
This chest thumping which we are witnessing here is counter productive . It was the same behaviour by ODM in 2012 before they realised to win elections you need all. UhuRuto realised their mistake of 2013 and they bought Lusaka/Kiraitu/ Kiunjuri and even Munya for the 2017 elections.
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Ruto has broad based national coalition. Kiambu is flip in the radar. Kiambu has 1.2m votes - and we expect to see very low turnout. Kakamega has 850K, Bungoma nearly the same. Nakuru is pretty much wrapped - as RV diaspora seem to have permanently cut the umbical cord with Central - after Uhuru betrayed them.
So I dont buy that Kiambu is critical. Maybe for Raila. I dont see how Kiambu DPORK can be appointed to replace Uhuru. That would make the Two Kabila problem Ruto faces even more daunting.
So just forget about Kiambu getting anything - when Uhuru is just finishing. They need timeout.
Nairobi is behemoth and I think it's pretty much has everyone now....
The top 10 counties
47 NAIROBI CITY Kikiyu 29%,Akamba 17%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%, 139560 2250853 2390413
22 KIAMBU Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%,Luhya & Others 13% 54668 1180920 1235588
32 NAKURU Gikuyu 52%,Kalenjin 37%;others 18% 58436 949618 1008054
37 KAKAMEGA Luhya 93% ,Luo,Gikuyu &others 7% - Luhya subtribes -Kabras,Wanga,Itsoho-ldakho,Bunyore,Marama,Kisia 53055 743736 796791
12 MERU Meru 94%,Gikuyu,Akamba 2% - Meru subtribes (Imenti (50%), Tigania, Igembe) 45083 702480 747563
16 MACHAKOS Akamba 91%,Gikuyu 5% & others 4% 37454 620254 657708
1 MOMBASA Mijikenda 30%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%,Akamba 17%,others 20% 37911 580223 618134
21 MURANGA Gikuyu 94%,Akamba & others 5% 22082 587126 609208
39 BUNGOMA Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%,Teso & others 5% - Luhya subtribes (Bukusu, Tachoni) 49186 559850 609036
45 KISII Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3% -Gusii clans-Kitutu , Mugirango, Majoge, Wanjare , Bassi, and Nyaribari. 54089 546580 600669
42 KISUMU Luo 89%,Luhya 6%,others 5% - Luo clans (Jo-Kano,Jo-kisumu,Jo-Nyakach,Jo-Seme) 41716 539210 580926
Gachagua and Alice are not from Kiambu. Nyeri and Muranga is Ruto locked . He needs a united Kiambu to back him and With Kiambu and Nakuru and sharing Nairobi he will be ahead.
Kiambu politics is a little bit different. Ruto needs to pacify any competition there.Kibaki knows too well what happened in 1997 and 2002.
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The only place Ruto will get Kikuyu votes is embu and kirinyaga... anything else is fairy tale
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The only place Ruto will get Kikuyu votes is embu and kirinyaga... anything else is fairy tale
The kikuyu constituency will vote DP almost to a man. In Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kajiado, and many Kikuyu disapora areas will also vote for DP to a tube of 90%+. At the moment, DP is the Kingpin of the Mountain. Under Uhuru's presidency, especially after 2017, Uhuru has made millions of Kikuyus very poor. Of the three presidents, Uhuru is the worse as far as mountain affairs are concerned.
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Who was Uhuru's deputy in the time "Uhuru was making millions of Kikuyus poor"?
The kikuyu constituency will vote DP almost to a man. In Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kajiado, and many Kikuyu disapora areas will also vote for DP to a tube of 90%+. At the moment, DP is the Kingpin of the Mountain. Under Uhuru's presidency, especially after 2017, Uhuru has made millions of Kikuyus very poor. Of the three presidents, Uhuru is the worse as far as mountain affairs are concerned.
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Kadudu people know these things - Matiangi and Raila replaced Ruto - Ruto is just DPORK in name only. We know if Raila wins - Ida will be the real DPORK
Who was Uhuru's deputy in the time "Uhuru was making millions of Kikuyus poor"?
The kikuyu constituency will vote DP almost to a man. In Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kajiado, and many Kikuyu disapora areas will also vote for DP to a tube of 90%+. At the moment, DP is the Kingpin of the Mountain. Under Uhuru's presidency, especially after 2017, Uhuru has made millions of Kikuyus very poor. Of the three presidents, Uhuru is the worse as far as mountain affairs are concerned.
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Who was Uhuru's deputy in the time "Uhuru was making millions of Kikuyus poor"?
The kikuyu constituency will vote DP almost to a man. In Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kajiado, and many Kikuyu disapora areas will also vote for DP to a tube of 90%+. At the moment, DP is the Kingpin of the Mountain. Under Uhuru's presidency, especially after 2017, Uhuru has made millions of Kikuyus very poor. Of the three presidents, Uhuru is the worse as far as mountain affairs are concerned.
In 2013 to 2017, Kikuyus, like the rest of Kenyans were on the path of thriving. In 2018-2022, they went down the tubes after BBI fiasco, big four agenda buried, and DP replaced by Kemsa thieves. Before Manyora joined Murathes and Atwolis, he was right on the money in 2018-2019.
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Kuria has seen the light..UDA ni mafi ya kuku.