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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2021, 09:52:55 PM

Title: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2021, 09:52:55 PM
Fuel subsidy not working;

Time to relax the levies and taxes; suspend all the levies on fuel;

Otherwise this is now dangerous

https://citizentv.co.ke/business/pain-at-the-pump-as-petrol-price-rises-by-ksh-7-58-diesel-ksh-7-94-kerosene-by-ksh-12-97-13099897/
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: vooke on September 14, 2021, 10:14:08 PM
Catch 22
The levies are the easiest tax revenue collected at the source.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2021, 10:19:27 PM
Yes they collected 2.6B dollars last year but at this rate - people will stop buying petrol.
Catch 22
The levies are the easiest tax revenue collected at the source.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: vooke on September 14, 2021, 10:28:17 PM
I have a nagging suspicion the formula for the fuel prices is rigged. That should be the biggest scam after SGR
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2021, 10:59:48 PM
They need to remove 8 percent VAT - parliament should suspend it until situation improves - and also remove excise.

Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Kadudu on September 15, 2021, 10:02:33 AM
Prices of oil have upped allover the world. Uhuru is not the smartest person on this earth and many of us today pretend they did not know that before 2013, but stop blaming him for things beyond his control.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: vooke on September 15, 2021, 10:06:37 AM
That is a condition from IMF

Why Looter is not all over this is because he will be equally helpless should he ever survive deep state machinations to obliterate his name from the ballot and win the race

They need to remove 8 percent VAT - parliament should suspend it until situation improves - and also remove excise.

Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 15, 2021, 10:28:24 AM
I think IMF will understand that situation is now dire. Ruto should attack Uhuru on this. Kenyans are suffering. Someone need to speak up - and offer leadership. Suspend fuel levy, taxes and etc until situation improves in the global oil market.
That is a condition from IMF

Why Looter is not all over this is because he will be equally helpless should he ever survive deep state machinations to obliterate his name from the ballot and win the race

They need to remove 8 percent VAT - parliament should suspend it until situation improves - and also remove excise.

Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Kadudu on September 15, 2021, 11:29:47 AM
Global oil market will not "improve" in the near future. Western countries and leading Asian countries heading to winter. Means energy demand will increase and the economies are recovering from covid pandemic. Demand for goods is high and means energy prices will increase.
Blame Ruto and Charles Keter for their corruption cartels that run the energy sector from 2013.

I think IMF will understand that situation is now dire. Ruto should attack Uhuru on this. Kenyans are suffering. Someone need to speak up - and offer leadership. Suspend fuel levy, taxes and etc until situation improves in the global oil market.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 15, 2021, 01:02:49 PM
Nobody is to blame. Summer will come back again. But for now gov should slash some of taxes from Oil. You know half the petrol pump price is taxes and levies. Now it time to cut some of it - and delay say maintainance of roads.

If not - Jakom will pay a huge political price - Ruto and Charles are out of gov - and Jubilee 1.0 scored 120 percent - way above 100 percent requiered (50 percent plus 1)

For now it's Uhuru and Jakom interest to low petrol prize otherwise people will be angry

Global oil market will not "improve" in the near future. Western countries and leading Asian countries heading to winter. Means energy demand will increase and the economies are recovering from covid pandemic. Demand for goods is high and means energy prices will increase.
Blame Ruto and Charles Keter for their corruption cartels that run the energy sector from 2013.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: vooke on September 16, 2021, 07:36:17 AM
But this stabilization fund is bogus.
We are paying 5.4/- per litre from which Gavaa compensates oil marketers for artificially suppressing prices. For some reasons Uhunye decided against tapping into the fund so the prices are actually how they should be.

Now, if we are not drawing from the fund, just suspend the levy
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2021, 07:45:35 AM
It's for diesel only.
But this stabilization fund is bogus.
We are paying 5.4/- per litre from which Gavaa compensates oil marketers for artificially suppressing prices. For some reasons Uhunye decided against tapping into the fund so the prices are actually how they should be.

Now, if we are not drawing from the fund, just suspend the levy
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: hk on September 16, 2021, 07:59:20 AM
The ills, incompetence, blunder of Jubilee economics (1 and 2) consequences being felt as david ndii predicted https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2019/12/06/an-imf-straightjacket-is-a-fitting-end-to-jubilees-reign-of-hubris-blunder-plunder-squander-and-abracadabra/
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2021, 08:15:43 AM
Jubilee 1.0 did well - and the verdict was passed on 22nd August 2017 - and it passed with flying colours.
Jubilee 2.0 is a disaster - it has borrowed more - with nothing to show.
At least Jubilee 1.0 - has railway that will last 100yrs.

Jubilee 2.0 has nothing to show - for all the borrowings.

Anyway by the time none is interested in treasury - they leave for borana - it's empty.

Jubilee 2.0 should have switched borrowing with making privitisation commission to sell the many of 200 SOEs - starting with floating more Safaricom shares..

Kibaki managed to keep debt low by selling kenya assets - like Safaricom, Kengen and Kenren

Jubilee 2.0 is dead as dodo - and Uhuru has no legacy - handshake and BBI has killed it - and now nobody want to associate with Jubilee - it's a dead brand.

The ills, incompetence, blunder of Jubilee economics (1 and 2) consequences being felt as david ndii predicted https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2019/12/06/an-imf-straightjacket-is-a-fitting-end-to-jubilees-reign-of-hubris-blunder-plunder-squander-and-abracadabra/
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on September 16, 2021, 08:53:01 AM
Uhuru is just bad luck to Kenya.jinga kabisa
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Kadudu on September 16, 2021, 09:59:51 AM
When you voted for Uhuru 3 times, did you vote for him because he would revive the economy?
Uhuru and Ruto were voted in in order to escape the ICC. The goal was reached and anything else like economy was never mentioned.

Uhuru is just bad luck to Kenya.jinga kabisa
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2021, 10:44:32 AM
2nd term had nothing to do with ICC.

Jubilee 1.0 delivered. So much they improve their 2013 voted by 5 percent - which is unheard of in most democracy - 2nd term is always tough to win.


The handshake and BBI from NASA has come to mess it.

Kenya is suffering because of one reason - William Ruto was removed from running gov - a mlevi is attempting to run it.

If Ruto had been running gov - we would be very far ahead.

There is a reason why WSR is leading in opinion polls.

People know his TRACK record of delivery.

Once Ruto wins PORK next year - kenya will be back to happy times in no time...like in Jubilee 1.0..where gov was nailing projects one after another...

300 days to suffer the incompetent mlevi

When you voted for Uhuru 3 times, did you vote for him because he would revive the economy?
Uhuru and Ruto were voted in in order to escape the ICC. The goal was reached and anything else like economy was never mentioned.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2021, 11:23:11 AM
Atwoli abandon Uhuru
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-09-16-atwoli-calls-out-uhuru-over-fuel-price-hike/
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Njuri Ncheke on September 16, 2021, 12:20:26 PM
When you voted for Uhuru 3 times, did you vote for him because he would revive the economy?
Uhuru and Ruto were voted in in order to escape the ICC. The goal was reached and anything else like economy was never mentioned.

Uhuru is just bad luck to Kenya.jinga kabisa
Kadudu that was one of the point but the major factor was people were excited that they were young. Talk was look they are very young if Kibaki did the massive developments and he is a mzee  then UhuRuto will industrialize the country. This was a genuine hope,the jeshi or nthurakus were very excited including me I saw kenya becoming  Malaysia in 10 years boy how we were all wrong but problem squarely lies with gatheca you can't blame Ruto he was a passenger. Gatheca as fcuked us up.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Nowayhaha on September 16, 2021, 12:54:48 PM
Just compared with other countries , realised prices a super high in Kenya.

https://m.statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-petrol-prices-and-gdp-per-capita.php
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2021, 02:00:21 PM
Look some demos...in thika road..at least according to my kid school whatsapp.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Nowayhaha on September 17, 2021, 06:46:20 AM
Raila and Handshake lead to this....

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Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Arcadian_Dreamer on September 17, 2021, 07:10:52 AM
Fundamental question: why are our lives so dependent on petrol? We need to break free from the yoke of fossil fuels.



Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: hk on September 20, 2021, 10:59:37 AM
Jubilee 1.0 did well - and the verdict was passed on 22nd August 2017 - and it passed with flying colours.
Jubilee 2.0 is a disaster - it has borrowed more - with nothing to show.
At least Jubilee 1.0 - has railway that will last 100yrs.

Jubilee 2.0 has nothing to show - for all the borrowings.

Anyway by the time none is interested in treasury - they leave for borana - it's empty.

Jubilee 2.0 should have switched borrowing with making privitisation commission to sell the many of 200 SOEs - starting with floating more Safaricom shares..

Kibaki managed to keep debt low by selling kenya assets - like Safaricom, Kengen and Kenren

Jubilee 2.0 is dead as dodo - and Uhuru has no legacy - handshake and BBI has killed it - and now nobody want to associate with Jubilee - it's a dead brand.

The ills, incompetence, blunder of Jubilee economics (1 and 2) consequences being felt as david ndii predicted https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2019/12/06/an-imf-straightjacket-is-a-fitting-end-to-jubilees-reign-of-hubris-blunder-plunder-squander-and-abracadabra/
The article was written in 2018 Ndii is referring to jubilee 1.0. The fact that it jubilee was reelected doesn't negate its fiscal irresponsibility, incompetence and plunder. The borrowing of jubilee 1.0 its what has created macro economics havoc. Jubilee 2.0has just been rolling over commercial debt taken by jubilee 1, and obviously 2 has taken worldbank and IMF loans.
One of the dumbest macro economic decision undertaken by jubilee was capping of interest rates spreads 2016 for political expediency. This led to artificial cheap borrowing by government and crushing of credit growth. As a result the SME/MSE were decimated, this what need to be redressed.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: Kadudu on September 20, 2021, 11:35:20 AM
No wonder the Americans elected Joe Biden. :D :D :D
Ati Kenya becoming Malaysia under UhuRuto? :D :D :D
Just blaming Uhuru alone for this disaster is being unfair. He did not rob the country alone. Never in the history of Kenya has a vice or deputy president accumulated so much wealth in the short period William Ruto has done in the last 9 years. That is where the problem lies and not only in SH.

Kadudu that was one of the point but the major factor was people were excited that they were young. Talk was look they are very young if Kibaki did the massive developments and he is a mzee  then UhuRuto will industrialize the country. This was a genuine hope,the jeshi or nthurakus were very excited including me I saw kenya becoming  Malaysia in 10 years boy how we were all wrong but problem squarely lies with gatheca you can't blame Ruto he was a passenger. Gatheca as fcuked us up.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 20, 2021, 11:39:40 AM
Jubilee 1.0 did well - and the verdict was passed on 22nd August 2017 - and it passed with flying colours.
Jubilee 2.0 is a disaster - it has borrowed more - with nothing to show.
At least Jubilee 1.0 - has railway that will last 100yrs.

Jubilee 2.0 has nothing to show - for all the borrowings.

Anyway by the time none is interested in treasury - they leave for borana - it's empty.

Jubilee 2.0 should have switched borrowing with making privitisation commission to sell the many of 200 SOEs - starting with floating more Safaricom shares..

Kibaki managed to keep debt low by selling kenya assets - like Safaricom, Kengen and Kenren

Jubilee 2.0 is dead as dodo - and Uhuru has no legacy - handshake and BBI has killed it - and now nobody want to associate with Jubilee - it's a dead brand.
Jubilee 2.0 has borrowed more than Jubilee 1.0 with almost nothing to show.
Just March last year to todate - Borana yatani has borrowed 1.5 trillion kshs - that is 15B Kshs.
The blames lies squarely with Uhuru.
Otherwise Jubilee 1.0 - finished it work and handed functioning gov to Uhuru and handshake crew.

For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.


The article was written in 2018 Ndii is referring to jubilee 1.0. The fact that it jubilee was reelected doesn't negate its fiscal irresponsibility, incompetence and plunder. The borrowing of jubilee 1.0 its what has created macro economics havoc. Jubilee 2.0has just been rolling over commercial debt taken by jubilee 1, and obviously 2 has taken worldbank and IMF loans.
One of the dumbest macro economic decision undertaken by jubilee was capping of interest rates spreads 2016 for political expediency. This led to artificial cheap borrowing by government and crushing of credit growth. As a result the SME/MSE were decimated, this what need to be redressed.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 20, 2021, 11:41:38 AM
For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

Look at Ethiopia - running on public sector investment for 20-30yrs of 10 % growth.

Anyone advocating like HK that economy can run on one engine alone - private investment - has not fully studied how other economies succeeded. Both private and public sector need to grow in tandem...one engine shut down..the other pick ups.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 20, 2021, 11:43:20 AM
Jubilee 1.0 verdict was long delivered.
Everyone knows Ruto has nothing to do with Jubilee 2.0
It's Uhuru and Raila gov...and they should take full responsibility.
If not...they should resign today..and Ruto will fix this economy.
If Ruto become PORK now...the economy will get fixed in a year.
No wonder the Americans elected Joe Biden. :D :D :D
Ati Kenya becoming Malaysia under UhuRuto? :D :D :D
Just blaming Uhuru alone for this disaster is being unfair. He did not rob the country alone. Never in the history of Kenya has a vice or deputy president accumulated so much wealth in the short period William Ruto has done in the last 9 years. That is where the problem lies and not only in SH.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: hk on September 21, 2021, 12:48:07 PM
For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

Look at Ethiopia - running on public sector investment for 20-30yrs of 10 % growth.

Anyone advocating like HK that economy can run on one engine alone - private investment - has not fully studied how other economies succeeded. Both private and public sector need to grow in tandem...one engine shut down..the other pick ups.
Distorting my argument, economic growth(private sector) drives infrastructure development. As for Ethiopia again david ndii wrote about in 2018 https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds
The infrastructure building boom, described in a recent World Bank report as “one of the highest rates of public investment in the world”, turbocharged Ethiopia’s economic growth rate from a respectable 5-6 percent to an exceptional 10 percent per year. But close to a decade on, the anticipated private investment that would enable Ethiopia to pay for it has not materialised. Ethiopia was banking on export processing zones investment, and has built several industrial parks around the country. Besides failing to attract investment, building booms of this magnitude have the effect of shifting incentives against “tradable” sectors of the economy. This phenomenon is more commonly associated with natural resource booms that economists call Dutch Disease. This is reflected in the decline of Ethiopia’s export to GDP ratio, from 17 percent to eight percent of GDP compared to Sub-Saharan average of 27 percent. Its export to GDP ratio is now the second lowest on the sub-continent after Burundi (6.2%).

Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power./2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
[b/]
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 21, 2021, 02:28:49 PM
Yet another mistake from you and Ndii. Public investment is an end in itself. It doesnt need to spur private sector to become good. The Hilter highways or the Mzungu railway even if it never made profit - lunatic express - is great - because the public benefit - in non-monetary terms - like reducing time or safety or etc.

If we can pull what Ethiopia have done for 30yrs - please give it to me.

Let us crash in the year 2050.

Some of these arguments do not apply where there is public investment deficit; it applies in UK where they debating whether to have a light or underground rail or status quo. Not kenya...where nothing exist.

If electricity expansion do not generate economic returns - no problem - kenyans watchign TV and using the lights for their kids to read longer - are already winner.

Economic growth can come in both ways - Ethiopia public sector way - or Kenya mixed - Jubilee improved from our 30yrs - since 90s private sector led growth - and jumped started huge investment in public sector.

We need both.

For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

Look at Ethiopia - running on public sector investment for 20-30yrs of 10 % growth.

Anyone advocating like HK that economy can run on one engine alone - private investment - has not fully studied how other economies succeeded. Both private and public sector need to grow in tandem...one engine shut down..the other pick ups.
Distorting my argument, economic growth(private sector) drives infrastructure development. As for Ethiopia again david ndii wrote about in 2018 https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds
The infrastructure building boom, described in a recent World Bank report as “one of the highest rates of public investment in the world”, turbocharged Ethiopia’s economic growth rate from a respectable 5-6 percent to an exceptional 10 percent per year. But close to a decade on, the anticipated private investment that would enable Ethiopia to pay for it has not materialised. Ethiopia was banking on export processing zones investment, and has built several industrial parks around the country. Besides failing to attract investment, building booms of this magnitude have the effect of shifting incentives against “tradable” sectors of the economy. This phenomenon is more commonly associated with natural resource booms that economists call Dutch Disease. This is reflected in the decline of Ethiopia’s export to GDP ratio, from 17 percent to eight percent of GDP compared to Sub-Saharan average of 27 percent. Its export to GDP ratio is now the second lowest on the sub-continent after Burundi (6.2%).

Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power./2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
[b/]
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: hk on September 21, 2021, 05:19:59 PM
Yet another mistake from you and Ndii. Public investment is an end in itself. It doesnt need to spur private sector to become good. The Hilter highways or the Mzungu railway even if it never made profit - lunatic express - is great - because the public benefit - in non-monetary terms - like reducing time or safety or etc.

If we can pull what Ethiopia have done for 30yrs - please give it to me.

Let us crash in the year 2050.

Some of these arguments do not apply where there is public investment deficit; it applies in UK where they debating whether to have a light or underground rail or status quo. Not kenya...where nothing exist.

If electricity expansion do not generate economic returns - no problem - kenyans watchign TV and using the lights for their kids to read longer - are already winner.

Economic growth can come in both ways - Ethiopia public sector way - or Kenya mixed - Jubilee improved from our 30yrs - since 90s private sector led growth - and jumped started huge investment in public sector.

We need both.
That's a warped economic argument. Its not like its manna from heaven, money has to be generated to fund public investment. Then there's opportunity cost, allocation of scarce resources and consequences is what determines economic outcomes.
The outcome doesn't  have to be necessarily monetary, the expansion of electricity for example ended up with about 1m idle connections and also raised cost for the rest of the consumers.
Infrastructure has to be commensurate with the level of development (economic output). We have infrastructure deficit especially areas that are under-served, not mega projects.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 21, 2021, 05:25:08 PM
But at best public sector is merely 30 percent of GDP - about 20 percent in taxes and AIA - therefore private sectors and indiviudals still have 70 percent. In places like Ethiopia - it's opposite. In Nordic - it's almost 50-50.

So how can public sector that is not even 30 percent - affect private sector growth? Even if it's all stolen? You pay taxes - but you retain a 70 percent of the pie

Naturally public sector will never be optimal - it's based on non-profit model - sociliasm or communism - it's reason why we build roads or railways using public sector? - if we looked at profit - we would never build it.

I dont understand why Ndii has no issue with social investment in education - now well going into 6B dollars annual - but when we spend 6b dollars to build railway, roads and such - we bring private sector metrics in?

What does public sector owes private sector - simple - macro-economics - and they are great on paper - inflation has been 4-5 percent - base rate is 7 percent - interest rate post capping is 12 percent - yes gov is borrowing at 12 percent too - and that is probably the only problem I blame Mlevi and Yattani.Gov should stop borrowing from banks - and find means to borrow or sell it's assets - until the economy re-balance.

Otherwise I do not see any problem with any infrastructure - even idle one like Isiolo or Lamu - they are not meant to make profit. Even idle power - the sunken cost to get the line - will only be done once and we have ticked that box. Once people move into those houses or get money - they will lit it up.

Public sector can never be profit or short term driven.

That's a warped economic argument. Its not like its manna from heaven, money has to be generated to fund public investment. Then there's opportunity cost, allocation of scarce resources and consequences is what determines economic outcomes.
The outcome doesn't  have to be necessarily monetary, the expansion of electricity for example ended up with about 1m idle connections and also raised cost for the rest of the consumers.
Infrastructure has to be commensurate with the level of development (economic output). We have infrastructure deficit especially areas that are under-served, not mega projects.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: hk on September 21, 2021, 05:58:26 PM
But at best public sector is merely 30 percent of GDP - about 20 percent in taxes and AIA - therefore private sectors and indiviudals still have 70 percent. In places like Ethiopia - it's opposite. In Nordic - it's almost 50-50.

So how can public sector that is not even 30 percent - affect private sector growth? Even if it's all stolen? You pay taxes - but you retain a 70 percent of the pie

Naturally public sector will never be optimal - it's based on non-profit model - sociliasm or communism - it's reason why we build roads or railways using public sector? - if we looked at profit - we would never build it.

I dont understand why Ndii has no issue with social investment in education - now well going into 6B dollars annual - but when we spend 6b dollars to build railway, roads and such - we bring private sector metrics in?

What does public sector owes private sector - simple - macro-economics - and they are great on paper - inflation has been 4-5 percent - base rate is 7 percent - interest rate post capping is 12 percent - yes gov is borrowing at 12 percent too - and that is probably the only problem I blame Mlevi and Yattani.Gov should stop borrowing from banks - and find means to borrow or sell it's assets - until the economy re-balance.

Otherwise I do not see any problem with any infrastructure - even idle one like Isiolo or Lamu - they are not meant to make profit. Even idle power - the sunken cost to get the line - will only be done once and we have ticked that box. Once people move into those houses or get money - they will lit it up.

Public sector can never be profit or short term driven.

That's a warped economic argument. Its not like its manna from heaven, money has to be generated to fund public investment. Then there's opportunity cost, allocation of scarce resources and consequences is what determines economic outcomes.
The outcome doesn't  have to be necessarily monetary, the expansion of electricity for example ended up with about 1m idle connections and also raised cost for the rest of the consumers.
Infrastructure has to be commensurate with the level of development (economic output). We have infrastructure deficit especially areas that are under-served, not mega projects.
Base lending isn't 7% its 12%. The main problem in kenya is 8% to 10% budget deficit. Even if there was zero corruption we'd still end up where we are. Surely you can't compare idle overpriced, subsidized infrastructure with investment in human capital? The return on investment both economic and social aren't comparable. Without investment in education would we have essay writers in kenya https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7290333/Inside-African-essay-factories-producing-essays-cheating-UK-students.html . Investment in education, sea internet cable and now fiber is what has led to development and growth of this industry. I suspect a significant chunk of so called diaspora remittance is proceeds of this industry.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 21, 2021, 06:47:14 PM
But it takes time for social investment to show; But we want railway to turn profitable in a year? If we assume 6B is broken down into 12 years of schooling; then for every class we are spending 0.5B dollars..
Now a kid in grade 1 - we are going to spend 0.5 *12 - 12yrs later - will that investment show.

So why not equally invest in roads? And Railways? especially if you get low maturity loans?

Base rate is 7 percent - commercial rate is 12.5 - obviously I doubt banks are lending to anyone but gov.

Agreed = diaspora = online commercial workers

Base lending isn't 7% its 12%. The main problem in kenya is 8% to 10% budget deficit. Even if there was zero corruption we'd still end up where we are. Surely you can't compare idle overpriced, subsidized infrastructure with investment in human capital? The return on investment both economic and social aren't comparable. Without investment in education would we have essay writers in kenya https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7290333/Inside-African-essay-factories-producing-essays-cheating-UK-students.html . Investment in education, sea internet cable and now fiber is what has led to development and growth of this industry. I suspect a significant chunk of so called diaspora remittance is proceeds of this industry.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: hk on September 21, 2021, 07:27:32 PM
But it takes time for social investment to show; But we want railway to turn profitable in a year? If we assume 6B is broken down into 12 years of schooling; then for every class we are spending 0.5B dollars..
Now a kid in grade 1 - we are going to spend 0.5 *12 - 12yrs later - will that investment show.

So why not equally invest in roads? And Railways? especially if you get low maturity loans?

Base rate is 7 percent - commercial rate is 12.5 - obviously I doubt banks are lending to anyone but gov.

Agreed = diaspora = online commercial workers

Base lending isn't 7% its 12%. The main problem in kenya is 8% to 10% budget deficit. Even if there was zero corruption we'd still end up where we are. Surely you can't compare idle overpriced, subsidized infrastructure with investment in human capital? The return on investment both economic and social aren't comparable. Without investment in education would we have essay writers in kenya https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7290333/Inside-African-essay-factories-producing-essays-cheating-UK-students.html . Investment in education, sea internet cable and now fiber is what has led to development and growth of this industry. I suspect a significant chunk of so called diaspora remittance is proceeds of this industry.
lending rate https://www.centralbank.go.ke/category/monetary-policy/ . SGR is cashflow negative operating at near capacity that's the main problem.
Title: Re: Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low
Post by: RV Pundit on September 21, 2021, 08:21:04 PM
CBR is 7 percent - and commercial lending average I think is down to 13-15 percent/
SGR
I thought the break even was something like 18-20B per annum; and this year it's close. But I believe to break even - it has to reach Malaba. The MSA-NBO is okay. The Naivasha for now is wasted.

Hopefully with SGR to MGR - it will improve and start breaking even

But we need similar patience we give to social investment - for public infrastructure - otherwise we will not develop

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/sgr-revenue-up-25pc-on-increased-imports-3557214
lending rate https://www.centralbank.go.ke/category/monetary-policy/ . SGR is cashflow negative operating at near capacity that's the main problem.