Petrol now retailing at 140shs almost - Uhuru Kinyasa ending in a low

[RV Pundit]

Look some demos...in thika road..at least according to my kid school whatsapp.

[Nowayhaha]

Raila and Handshake lead to this....

Invalid Tweet ID

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Fundamental question: why are our lives so dependent on petrol? We need to break free from the yoke of fossil fuels.

[hk]

Jubilee 1.0 did well - and the verdict was passed on 22nd August 2017 - and it passed with flying colours.
Jubilee 2.0 is a disaster - it has borrowed more - with nothing to show.
At least Jubilee 1.0 - has railway that will last 100yrs.

Jubilee 2.0 has nothing to show - for all the borrowings.

Anyway by the time none is interested in treasury - they leave for borana - it's empty.

Jubilee 2.0 should have switched borrowing with making privitisation commission to sell the many of 200 SOEs - starting with floating more Safaricom shares..

Kibaki managed to keep debt low by selling kenya assets - like Safaricom, Kengen and Kenren

Jubilee 2.0 is dead as dodo - and Uhuru has no legacy - handshake and BBI has killed it - and now nobody want to associate with Jubilee - it's a dead brand.

The ills, incompetence, blunder of Jubilee economics (1 and 2) consequences being felt as david ndii predicted https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2019/12/06/an-imf-straightjacket-is-a-fitting-end-to-jubilees-reign-of-hubris-blunder-plunder-squander-and-abracadabra/

The article was written in 2018 Ndii is referring to jubilee 1.0. The fact that it jubilee was reelected doesn't negate its fiscal irresponsibility, incompetence and plunder. The borrowing of jubilee 1.0 its what has created macro economics havoc. Jubilee 2.0has just been rolling over commercial debt taken by jubilee 1, and obviously 2 has taken worldbank and IMF loans.
One of the dumbest macro economic decision undertaken by jubilee was capping of interest rates spreads 2016 for political expediency. This led to artificial cheap borrowing by government and crushing of credit growth. As a result the SME/MSE were decimated, this what need to be redressed.

[Kadudu]

No wonder the Americans elected Joe Biden.
Ati Kenya becoming Malaysia under UhuRuto?
Just blaming Uhuru alone for this disaster is being unfair. He did not rob the country alone. Never in the history of Kenya has a vice or deputy president accumulated so much wealth in the short period William Ruto has done in the last 9 years. That is where the problem lies and not only in SH.

Kadudu that was one of the point but the major factor was people were excited that they were young. Talk was look they are very young if Kibaki did the massive developments and he is a mzee  then UhuRuto will industrialize the country. This was a genuine hope,the jeshi or nthurakus were very excited including me I saw kenya becoming  Malaysia in 10 years boy how we were all wrong but problem squarely lies with gatheca you can't blame Ruto he was a passenger. Gatheca as fcuked us up.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee 1.0 did well - and the verdict was passed on 22nd August 2017 - and it passed with flying colours.
Jubilee 2.0 is a disaster - it has borrowed more - with nothing to show.
At least Jubilee 1.0 - has railway that will last 100yrs.

Jubilee 2.0 has nothing to show - for all the borrowings.

Anyway by the time none is interested in treasury - they leave for borana - it's empty.

Jubilee 2.0 should have switched borrowing with making privitisation commission to sell the many of 200 SOEs - starting with floating more Safaricom shares..

Kibaki managed to keep debt low by selling kenya assets - like Safaricom, Kengen and Kenren

Jubilee 2.0 is dead as dodo - and Uhuru has no legacy - handshake and BBI has killed it - and now nobody want to associate with Jubilee - it's a dead brand.
Jubilee 2.0 has borrowed more than Jubilee 1.0 with almost nothing to show.
Just March last year to todate - Borana yatani has borrowed 1.5 trillion kshs - that is 15B Kshs.
The blames lies squarely with Uhuru.
Otherwise Jubilee 1.0 - finished it work and handed functioning gov to Uhuru and handshake crew.

For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

The article was written in 2018 Ndii is referring to jubilee 1.0. The fact that it jubilee was reelected doesn't negate its fiscal irresponsibility, incompetence and plunder. The borrowing of jubilee 1.0 its what has created macro economics havoc. Jubilee 2.0has just been rolling over commercial debt taken by jubilee 1, and obviously 2 has taken worldbank and IMF loans.
One of the dumbest macro economic decision undertaken by jubilee was capping of interest rates spreads 2016 for political expediency. This led to artificial cheap borrowing by government and crushing of credit growth. As a result the SME/MSE were decimated, this what need to be redressed.

[RV Pundit]

For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

Look at Ethiopia - running on public sector investment for 20-30yrs of 10 % growth.

Anyone advocating like HK that economy can run on one engine alone - private investment - has not fully studied how other economies succeeded. Both private and public sector need to grow in tandem...one engine shut down..the other pick ups.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee 1.0 verdict was long delivered.
Everyone knows Ruto has nothing to do with Jubilee 2.0
It's Uhuru and Raila gov...and they should take full responsibility.
If not...they should resign today..and Ruto will fix this economy.
If Ruto become PORK now...the economy will get fixed in a year.

No wonder the Americans elected Joe Biden.
Ati Kenya becoming Malaysia under UhuRuto?
Just blaming Uhuru alone for this disaster is being unfair. He did not rob the country alone. Never in the history of Kenya has a vice or deputy president accumulated so much wealth in the short period William Ruto has done in the last 9 years. That is where the problem lies and not only in SH.

[hk]

For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

Look at Ethiopia - running on public sector investment for 20-30yrs of 10 % growth.

Anyone advocating like HK that economy can run on one engine alone - private investment - has not fully studied how other economies succeeded. Both private and public sector need to grow in tandem...one engine shut down..the other pick ups.

Distorting my argument, economic growth(private sector) drives infrastructure development. As for Ethiopia again david ndii wrote about in 2018 https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power./2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
[b/]

[RV Pundit]

Yet another mistake from you and Ndii. Public investment is an end in itself. It doesnt need to spur private sector to become good. The Hilter highways or the Mzungu railway even if it never made profit - lunatic express - is great - because the public benefit - in non-monetary terms - like reducing time or safety or etc.

If we can pull what Ethiopia have done for 30yrs - please give it to me.

Let us crash in the year 2050.

Some of these arguments do not apply where there is public investment deficit; it applies in UK where they debating whether to have a light or underground rail or status quo. Not kenya...where nothing exist.

If electricity expansion do not generate economic returns - no problem - kenyans watchign TV and using the lights for their kids to read longer - are already winner.

Economic growth can come in both ways - Ethiopia public sector way - or Kenya mixed - Jubilee improved from our 30yrs - since 90s private sector led growth - and jumped started huge investment in public sector.

We need both.

For me the biggest mistake was to stop public investment; The reggae should not stop abruptly. What was needed was to find ways to finance public expenditure by selling Safaricom, KCB and others.

This would have allowed public investment to continue - and after one year or two - we would have resumed to leveraging.

Now you're in bad situation where you're borrowing more and more - not to invest in capital projects - but for recurrent expenditure and debt financing.

Look at Ethiopia - running on public sector investment for 20-30yrs of 10 % growth.

Anyone advocating like HK that economy can run on one engine alone - private investment - has not fully studied how other economies succeeded. Both private and public sector need to grow in tandem...one engine shut down..the other pick ups.

Distorting my argument, economic growth(private sector) drives infrastructure development. As for Ethiopia again david ndii wrote about in 2018 https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power./2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/
[b/]

[hk]

Yet another mistake from you and Ndii. Public investment is an end in itself. It doesnt need to spur private sector to become good. The Hilter highways or the Mzungu railway even if it never made profit - lunatic express - is great - because the public benefit - in non-monetary terms - like reducing time or safety or etc.

If we can pull what Ethiopia have done for 30yrs - please give it to me.

Let us crash in the year 2050.

Some of these arguments do not apply where there is public investment deficit; it applies in UK where they debating whether to have a light or underground rail or status quo. Not kenya...where nothing exist.

If electricity expansion do not generate economic returns - no problem - kenyans watchign TV and using the lights for their kids to read longer - are already winner.

Economic growth can come in both ways - Ethiopia public sector way - or Kenya mixed - Jubilee improved from our 30yrs - since 90s private sector led growth - and jumped started huge investment in public sector.

We need both.

That's a warped economic argument. Its not like its manna from heaven, money has to be generated to fund public investment. Then there's opportunity cost, allocation of scarce resources and consequences is what determines economic outcomes.
The outcome doesn't  have to be necessarily monetary, the expansion of electricity for example ended up with about 1m idle connections and also raised cost for the rest of the consumers.
Infrastructure has to be commensurate with the level of development (economic output). We have infrastructure deficit especially areas that are under-served, not mega projects.

[RV Pundit]

But at best public sector is merely 30 percent of GDP - about 20 percent in taxes and AIA - therefore private sectors and indiviudals still have 70 percent. In places like Ethiopia - it's opposite. In Nordic - it's almost 50-50.

So how can public sector that is not even 30 percent - affect private sector growth? Even if it's all stolen? You pay taxes - but you retain a 70 percent of the pie

Naturally public sector will never be optimal - it's based on non-profit model - sociliasm or communism - it's reason why we build roads or railways using public sector? - if we looked at profit - we would never build it.

I dont understand why Ndii has no issue with social investment in education - now well going into 6B dollars annual - but when we spend 6b dollars to build railway, roads and such - we bring private sector metrics in?

What does public sector owes private sector - simple - macro-economics - and they are great on paper - inflation has been 4-5 percent - base rate is 7 percent - interest rate post capping is 12 percent - yes gov is borrowing at 12 percent too - and that is probably the only problem I blame Mlevi and Yattani.Gov should stop borrowing from banks - and find means to borrow or sell it's assets - until the economy re-balance.

Otherwise I do not see any problem with any infrastructure - even idle one like Isiolo or Lamu - they are not meant to make profit. Even idle power - the sunken cost to get the line - will only be done once and we have ticked that box. Once people move into those houses or get money - they will lit it up.

Public sector can never be profit or short term driven.

That's a warped economic argument. Its not like its manna from heaven, money has to be generated to fund public investment. Then there's opportunity cost, allocation of scarce resources and consequences is what determines economic outcomes.
The outcome doesn't  have to be necessarily monetary, the expansion of electricity for example ended up with about 1m idle connections and also raised cost for the rest of the consumers.
Infrastructure has to be commensurate with the level of development (economic output). We have infrastructure deficit especially areas that are under-served, not mega projects.

[hk]

But at best public sector is merely 30 percent of GDP - about 20 percent in taxes and AIA - therefore private sectors and indiviudals still have 70 percent. In places like Ethiopia - it's opposite. In Nordic - it's almost 50-50.

So how can public sector that is not even 30 percent - affect private sector growth? Even if it's all stolen? You pay taxes - but you retain a 70 percent of the pie

Naturally public sector will never be optimal - it's based on non-profit model - sociliasm or communism - it's reason why we build roads or railways using public sector? - if we looked at profit - we would never build it.

I dont understand why Ndii has no issue with social investment in education - now well going into 6B dollars annual - but when we spend 6b dollars to build railway, roads and such - we bring private sector metrics in?

What does public sector owes private sector - simple - macro-economics - and they are great on paper - inflation has been 4-5 percent - base rate is 7 percent - interest rate post capping is 12 percent - yes gov is borrowing at 12 percent too - and that is probably the only problem I blame Mlevi and Yattani.Gov should stop borrowing from banks - and find means to borrow or sell it's assets - until the economy re-balance.

Otherwise I do not see any problem with any infrastructure - even idle one like Isiolo or Lamu - they are not meant to make profit. Even idle power - the sunken cost to get the line - will only be done once and we have ticked that box. Once people move into those houses or get money - they will lit it up.

Public sector can never be profit or short term driven.

That's a warped economic argument. Its not like its manna from heaven, money has to be generated to fund public investment. Then there's opportunity cost, allocation of scarce resources and consequences is what determines economic outcomes.
The outcome doesn't  have to be necessarily monetary, the expansion of electricity for example ended up with about 1m idle connections and also raised cost for the rest of the consumers.
Infrastructure has to be commensurate with the level of development (economic output). We have infrastructure deficit especially areas that are under-served, not mega projects.

Base lending isn't 7% its 12%. The main problem in kenya is 8% to 10% budget deficit. Even if there was zero corruption we'd still end up where we are. Surely you can't compare idle overpriced, subsidized infrastructure with investment in human capital? The return on investment both economic and social aren't comparable. Without investment in education would we have essay writers in kenya https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7290333/Inside-African-essay-factories-producing-essays-cheating-UK-students.html . Investment in education, sea internet cable and now fiber is what has led to development and growth of this industry. I suspect a significant chunk of so called diaspora remittance is proceeds of this industry.

[RV Pundit]

But it takes time for social investment to show; But we want railway to turn profitable in a year? If we assume 6B is broken down into 12 years of schooling; then for every class we are spending 0.5B dollars..
Now a kid in grade 1 - we are going to spend 0.5 *12 - 12yrs later - will that investment show.

So why not equally invest in roads? And Railways? especially if you get low maturity loans?

Base rate is 7 percent - commercial rate is 12.5 - obviously I doubt banks are lending to anyone but gov.

Agreed = diaspora = online commercial workers

Base lending isn't 7% its 12%. The main problem in kenya is 8% to 10% budget deficit. Even if there was zero corruption we'd still end up where we are. Surely you can't compare idle overpriced, subsidized infrastructure with investment in human capital? The return on investment both economic and social aren't comparable. Without investment in education would we have essay writers in kenya https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7290333/Inside-African-essay-factories-producing-essays-cheating-UK-students.html . Investment in education, sea internet cable and now fiber is what has led to development and growth of this industry. I suspect a significant chunk of so called diaspora remittance is proceeds of this industry.

[hk]

But it takes time for social investment to show; But we want railway to turn profitable in a year? If we assume 6B is broken down into 12 years of schooling; then for every class we are spending 0.5B dollars..
Now a kid in grade 1 - we are going to spend 0.5 *12 - 12yrs later - will that investment show.

So why not equally invest in roads? And Railways? especially if you get low maturity loans?

Base rate is 7 percent - commercial rate is 12.5 - obviously I doubt banks are lending to anyone but gov.

Agreed = diaspora = online commercial workers

Base lending isn't 7% its 12%. The main problem in kenya is 8% to 10% budget deficit. Even if there was zero corruption we'd still end up where we are. Surely you can't compare idle overpriced, subsidized infrastructure with investment in human capital? The return on investment both economic and social aren't comparable. Without investment in education would we have essay writers in kenya https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7290333/Inside-African-essay-factories-producing-essays-cheating-UK-students.html . Investment in education, sea internet cable and now fiber is what has led to development and growth of this industry. I suspect a significant chunk of so called diaspora remittance is proceeds of this industry.

lending rate https://www.centralbank.go.ke/category/monetary-policy/ . SGR is cashflow negative operating at near capacity that's the main problem.

[RV Pundit]

CBR is 7 percent - and commercial lending average I think is down to 13-15 percent/
SGR
I thought the break even was something like 18-20B per annum; and this year it's close. But I believe to break even - it has to reach Malaba. The MSA-NBO is okay. The Naivasha for now is wasted.

Hopefully with SGR to MGR - it will improve and start breaking even

But we need similar patience we give to social investment - for public infrastructure - otherwise we will not develop

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/sgr-revenue-up-25pc-on-increased-imports-3557214

lending rate https://www.centralbank.go.ke/category/monetary-policy/ . SGR is cashflow negative operating at near capacity that's the main problem.