Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 29, 2021, 03:50:42 PM
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The one-man one-vote one-shilling has been the key message being championed by the Mt. Kenya leadership, which is within their right!
The numbers today favors the region, but the situation will be different in 9 years’ time!
I will demonstrate this shortly!
Before demonstrating the above hypothesis, even today, Mt. Kenya’s population is hidden in just 2 counties i.e. Nakuru and Kiambu.
That is why even the BBI was allocating almost 12 new constituencies in these two counties, with the other 8 counties gaining only 5
You see, both counties have a combined population of 4.6M with the 10 Mt. Kenya Counties having a combined population of 10.7M and hence, both Kiambu and Nakuru combined account to slightly above 43% of Mt. Kenya’s population!
It’s even interesting to know that Kiambu’s population is again concentrated in only 4 constituencies of Juja, Thika Town, Ruiru and Kiambaa whose population is half of Kiambu County.
Same case with Nakuru where the population is concentrated in just 3 constituencies of Naivasha, Njoro and Bahati accounting to almost 40% of Nakuru's population
Back to my hypothesis!
Yesterday, I did share population growth rates in the 8 counties of Mt. Kenya Region (I excluded Nakuru and Laikipia), and compared this with some other countries.
Quite evident was the fact that majority of the Mt. Kenya counties records lower population growth rate, even below the national average, and three of them recording a growth rate of less than 1%
Today, I expand my analysis to the other regions in the county, and will provide population growth overtime i.e. from 1999 to 2019, and projections to 2039
For ease of demonstration, I have grouped the 47 counties into 9 regions mainly driven by the demographic profiles of the countries and their ethnic composition
The regions include: Coast (6 counties), Cosmopolitan (6 counties eg. Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru etc), Kelenjin Rift (6 counties), Kisii Nyanza (2 counties), Lower Eastern (3 counties), Luo Nyanza (4 counties), Mt. Kenya (8 counties, including Laikipia), Pastoralist (8 counties) and Western (4 counties)
Between 1999 and 2019, Mt. Kenya’s population grew by only 30%, from 4.7 Million to 6.1 Million, and this was the 2nd lowest growth after Kisii Nyanza whose population only grew by 16%.
But, just take a keen look at the Pastoralist Counties, their population growth rose by 69% from 3.5 Million to 2019’s estimate of 6 Million.
The population sky rocked in the Cosmopolitan Counties whose population more than doubled in just 20 years
Now, in 2009; Mt. Kenya was the 2nd populous region after the Cosmopolitan Region with the difference being 1.1 Million, Western Region was the 3rd populous region and the difference with Mt. Kenya was 1 Million people.
Note also in 1999, Mt. Kenya’s population was nearly 1.2 Million higher than the Pastoralist Counties.
Although in 2019 Mt. Kenya was also the 2nd populous, it’s gap with Western Kenya and Pastoralist Counties shrunk to 700k and 160k respectively from 1.1 M and 1.0 M respectively
And by 2029, the Pastoralist Counties will have overtaken Mt. Kenya and their gap will be 1.2M in favor of the Pastoralist Counties.
In short, Mt. Kenya will be 3rd populous region. Also the gap between Mt. Kenya and Western Kenya will have shrunk to 400k people
By 2039, Mt. Kenya will again have been overtaken by Western Kenya and hence Mt. Kenya will be the 4th populous region, after Cosmopolitan, Pastoralist and Western Kenya!
Actually, the gap also between the Mt. Kenya Region and the Kalenjin Rift will also have decreased from 1.2M today to 500k in 2039
Based on the above, it’s almost clear that the Mt. Kenya Region population is almost reaching as saturation point, where it only replaces itself but doesn’t grow anymore
But regions like the Northern Frontiers etc, are still growing rapidly and also being favored by other factors like availability of land!
Remember Marsabit County is nearly 5 times larger than Central Kenya combined! While Marsabit and Turkana Counties combined are a quarter of Kenya!
What’s my point, while we can change the constitution and allocate resources and political representation to the one-man, it’s important to look at other factors!
Equity and equality should be the way to go! Today the numbers may favor us; tomorrow the same number may disadvantage us!
Parting Shot: If one-man one-vote one-shilling was to become effective today, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Tharaka-Nithi and Nyandarua will all loose from their current situation! Kiambu would be the main beneficiary! I have demonstrated this in the past!
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RV , I was not pro BBI nor was I pro one man one vote one shilling.
I was also on record here indicating Uhuru is trying to sell BBI as a Mt Kenya document however only Kiambu and Nairobi would benefit.
Now on your analysis above this new tribe you are calling cosmopolitan why dont you declassify it to the known Kenyan tribes. Then we can discuss from there.
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Okay. Nairobi Metro is attracting everyone from all tribes - that is Nairobi, Kajiado,Machakos and Kiambu. Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru and Eldoret are also attracting everyone
RV , I was not pro BBI nor was I pro one man one vote one shilling.
I was also on record here indicating Uhuru is trying to sell BBI as a Mt Kenya document however only Kiambu and Nairobi would benefit.
Now on your analysis above this new tribe you are calling cosmopolitan why dont you declassify it to the known Kenyan tribes. Then we can discuss from there.
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My views on subject matter , why do you want to do a Raila on me and force a contest ?
Just imagine Mandera even after their numbers were corrected are nearly 1M people - and Kiambu - which is taking a lot of Nairobeans - is mere 2m people.
Kikuyus need to adjust to a new reality where they will not be important tribe - just another tribe.
Give these somalis two more decades -
Maasai were once the most popolous tribe in kenya - but now they a pale shadow of themselves.
RV, one of the reason I said its misplaced for Mt Kenya and Rift Valley to go all out on 1M 1S debate is , even if they were to win the amount they would have gained is insignificant vis a vis what they would gain by retaining the Presidency (Executive) and Legislature .Let their partner North Eastern Gain in devolution . As this a mere 15% Max of the audited national revenue .
Now imagine if Railas BBI Referendum goes through which wants to increase the disbursed national revenue to 35%/40% . This should be the cornerstone of Mt Kenya/RV/Western opposing the referendum and opposing they will .
They need to look at the bigger picture , the Bomas draft which Raila is advocating is just a scheme to revenge against communities which have been in power and or are politically superior in capturing power .
RV , I was not pro BBI nor was I pro one man one vote one shilling.
I was also on record here indicating Uhuru is trying to sell BBI as a Mt Kenya document however only Kiambu and Nairobi would benefit.
Now on your analysis above this new tribe you are calling cosmopolitan why dont you declassify it to the known Kenyan tribes. Then we can discuss from there.
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Another one
Counties should be allowed to levy some of the taxes. For example - why should a county remit employee PAYES to KRA. It doesn't make sense. This is money should keep...Counties need to form their own County Revenue Authority - and be allowed to levy some taxes - PAYE of their own employees, VAT and taxes of all contractors working with county gov. That should give them 30% more of the money they receive - and proportionally.
Maybe in 10yrs - counties will have built more capacity - to go fully federal.
Otherwise this is slippery slope..
Every county should eventually get most of resources from their locality.
And national gov should self-fund from national functions - through ports - for examples - immigration - self-fund from charging for passports -
RV, one of the reason I said its misplaced for Mt Kenya and Rift Valley to go all out on 1M 1S debate is , even if they were to win the amount they would have gained is insignificant vis a vis what they would gain by retaining the Presidency (Executive) and Legislature .Let their partner North Eastern Gain in devolution . As this a mere 15% Max of the audited national revenue .
Now imagine if Railas BBI Referendum goes through which wants to increase the disbursed national revenue to 35%/40% . This should be the cornerstone of Mt Kenya/RV/Western opposing the referendum and opposing they will .
They need to look at the bigger picture , the Bomas draft which Raila is advocating is just a scheme to revenge against communities which have been in power and or are politically superior in capturing power .
True counties need to identify their strength and areas where they can create revenue and this should form their pool for the recuring expenditure.
Railas propasal for 40% of national revenue to trickle down to counties is shortsighted, where will government get money to pay state officials boost defence , seeks and pay loans etc
If we go Railas way in 5 years time we would make rich county government officials and then be attacked by hostile neighbours and guess who will be negotiating with the hostile neighbours the same county government officials
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Understood. Sorry mistook you for the usual FairandImbalanced kind
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The discussion we had on one shilling one vote debate Pundit is trying to wage a hate war against GEMA….
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It was long debate lasting months. You supported kangata irungu backed by Raila nonsense that was rejected by senate with heroic effort from Malala n rest who rejected the formulae despite their counties benefited.Ruto n Sakaja gives us a fair system.We want equitable sharing of resources. We will not entertain selfishness of a few.
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Upuzi once again I say , I was against it together with BBI reasons given earlier . Anything Raila touches I will never support. I never supported anything handshake unlike you.
This is what you said back then but as usual you try to hard to push me to a position ive never supported , just like with Uhuru.
I have told you several times if Raila was to unite with Ruto I turn against Ruto instantly . If you want to know my position on anything and everything always remember that .
Understood. Sorry mistook you for the usual FairandImbalanced kind
It was long debate lasting months. You supported kangata irungu backed by Raila nonsense that was rejected by senate with heroic effort from Malala n rest who rejected the formulae despite their counties benefited.Ruto n Sakaja gives us a fair system.We want equitable sharing of resources. We will not entertain selfishness of a few.
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Upuzi once again I say , I was against it together with BBI reasons given earlier . Anything Raila touches I will never support. I never supported anything handshake unlike you.
This is what you said back then but as usual you try to hard to push me to a position ive never supported , just like with Uhuru.
I have told you several times if Raila was to unite with Ruto I turn against Ruto instantly . If you want to know my position on anything and everything always remember that .
Understood. Sorry mistook you for the usual FairandImbalanced kind
It was long debate lasting months. You supported kangata irungu backed by Raila nonsense that was rejected by senate with heroic effort from Malala n rest who rejected the formulae despite their counties benefited.Ruto n Sakaja gives us a fair system.We want equitable sharing of resources. We will not entertain selfishness of a few.
Makes you stupid..so if Raila support something..you oppose it.Seek medical help fool.You have principles in life.Those should not change. I have mine.If Raila moves towards them he is my friend. If Ruto moves away he is my enemy like Moi was despite being my tribesmen.Please treat yourselves for Raila phobia...this country will continue in his absence...so have things you believe in..and if Raila genuinely convert..why not break bread.If today Raila says he is joining uda..are going to join odm instead
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Thats my principle .
Just a question to you , Do you think Uhuru would have achieved much in 2nd Term if he stuck with Ruto rather than joining hands with Raila ?
Upuzi once again I say , I was against it together with BBI reasons given earlier . Anything Raila touches I will never support. I never supported anything handshake unlike you.
This is what you said back then but as usual you try to hard to push me to a position ive never supported , just like with Uhuru.
I have told you several times if Raila was to unite with Ruto I turn against Ruto instantly . If you want to know my position on anything and everything always remember that .
Understood. Sorry mistook you for the usual FairandImbalanced kind
It was long debate lasting months. You supported kangata irungu backed by Raila nonsense that was rejected by senate with heroic effort from Malala n rest who rejected the formulae despite their counties benefited.Ruto n Sakaja gives us a fair system.We want equitable sharing of resources. We will not entertain selfishness of a few.
Makes you stupid..so if Raila support something..you oppose it.Seek medical help fool.You have principles in life.Those should not change. I have mine.If Raila moves towards them he is my friend. If Ruto moves away he is my enemy like Moi was despite being my tribesmen.Please treat yourselves for Raila phobia...this country will continue in his absence...so have things you believe in..and if Raila genuinely convert..why not break bread.If today Raila says he is joining uda..are going to join odm instead
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Moron uhuru didn't seek out Raila for good motives..he sought him put as political insurance against Ruto...his job was to let Raila and Ruto fight..as he stole. You need principles.You need things in you believe in.Moi despite all that was principled.Raila if today he repents..we will welcome him.As long as genuine. Raila likely to do that...