Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on August 27, 2021, 08:34:05 PM
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Kiunjuri sets irreducible minimums for Mt Kenya suitors
The other demand TSP is putting on the table is the assurance of the right for the residents of the region to own property, live anywhere and be elected.
“Every election year, it is unfortunate that voters in certain parts of the country experience threats, intimidation and incitement against certain candidates,” TSP said after a meeting with aspirants for various positions in next year’s election.
It added, “Such intimidation must end. All Kenyans have the right to live anywhere in this country and seek elective positions should they wish to.”
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-08-27-kiunjuri-sets-irreducible-minimums-for-mt-kenya-suitors/
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Nobody listening to him. This guy is issuing empty threats in a room full of political din.
If he really want people to listen to him - let him join Raila or Uhuru - and he will become serious news.
Or at least assemble large number of mt kenya leaders enough for Ruto to notice.
Kiunjuri and TSP has been one misadventure..not a single MP or MCA...and you're threatening someone with majority of people and it's leaders.
For now until the battle btw Uhuru and Ruto is resolved in Mt kenya - I think Uhuru has made one more last ditch effort - Kiunjuri is irrelevant.
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You underrate these guys thinking they will foolishly join Uhuru. Surrender. They are hustler nation co-founders - they will invent and forment grievances just as they did in Jubilee. The 1M1V1S is BBI language. The "right to own property" is diaspora.
Their interests with Ruto are misaligned - they have the same base. Hustler nation will split.
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If Kiunjuri and Kuria walk out - from hustler nation - to abyss - it wont affect it. Hustler Nation is ground up movement. It's like ODM of them days. You need it. It doesn't need you.
For many in Mt kenya they are just out 20yr fatigue of power - and care less about power - you have people who hate a sitting president already and you're going round selling DPORK :)
They better listen to Ruto - and sell hustler nation ideals - and eventually make a deal in April. Ruto is gentleman - and Mt kenya will get 50 percent - and will be real shareholders.
Kiunjuri is upping his stake for DPORK and coalition but sioni - he might get DPORK but TSP will not get 50-50 coalition with UDA - he still the guy to beat - if Munya stops killing him with reforms in kilimo house that are paying off.
He is the tallest of them dwarfs in Mt kenya - but he better become a team player - Alice Wahome might knick it - she is clean and a woman and a fighter and from Muranga. I think Kiambu-Nyeri are out of consideration. It's either kiunjuri from diaspora or Muranga person.
You underrate these guys thinking they will foolishly join Uhuru. Surrender. They are hustler nation co-founders - they will invent and forment grievances just as they did in Jubilee. The 1M1V1S is BBI language. The "right to own property" is diaspora.
Their interests with Ruto are misaligned - they have the same base. Hustler nation will split.
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These guys are not fools - Kiunjuri, Kuria - they were the main drivers of anti-Uhuru, anti-dynaty narrative. Kiunjuri had to be fired after insisting Uhuruto deal be honored. Kuria would erupt with issues claming GoK neglect.
Give them credit.
They will not call press and "defect" from hustler nation... they will split it. Raising 1M1V and property rights is directly playing tribal card. By the time you have a new by-election - UDA will be facing TSP or PEP battle for the same base.
These guys are not late. If they play their cards right they can even inherit the Uhuru vote Ruto has failed to nail - and consolidate Gema. Of course it good move for them - relying on "Ruto is a gentleman" is really naive. They should corner him like they are doing.
If you struggled against Uhuru try these guys.
If Kiunjuri and Kuria walk out - from hustler nation - to abyss - it wont affect it. Hustler Nation is ground up movement. It's like ODM of them days. You need it. It doesn't need you.
For many in Mt kenya they are just out 20yr fatigue of power - and care less about power - you have people who hate a sitting president already and you're going round selling DPORK :)
They better listen to Ruto - and sell hustler nation ideals - and eventually make a deal in April. Ruto is gentleman - and Mt kenya will get 50 percent - and will be real shareholders.
Kiunjuri is upping his stake for DPORK and coalition but sioni - he might get DPORK but TSP will not get 50-50 coalition with UDA - he still the guy to beat - if Munya stops killing him with reforms in kilimo house that are paying off.
He is the tallest of them dwarfs in Mt kenya - but he better become a team player - Alice Wahome might knick it - she is clean and a woman and a fighter and from Muranga. I think Kiambu-Nyeri are out of consideration. It's either kiunjuri from diaspora or Muranga person.
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Pundit if there is a by-election in Laikipia do you think Ruto will be arrogant or step down for TSP? Risk losing to Jubilee or let Kiunjuri take it.
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Let me teach you politics before you have me banned.
Kikuyu is great community with great leaders.
That Kiunjuri and Kuria are leading lights is reflection of how they've gone down under Uhuru
Uhuru was of course was kalenjin trojan horse - a mlevi that could sell in Mt kenya because Jomo kenyatta is hero in Kikuyu folkflore.
Kalenjin lead by Ruto - would run the gov - like they did in Jubilee 1.0.
This they told kalenjin in 2002. As kalenjin wondered how can have theirr mortal enemy as head of ticket. Dont worry about Mlevi. He will drink- we will run gov. This I heard verbatim in 2002 election.
But to imagine the likes of Ken Matiba or Kibaki - would even be compared to Uhuru.
Now Uhuru had pedigree. But he is not Jomo, or Matiba or Kibaki. Those were leaders of great talents.
Now these two..Kuria and Kiunjuri...kikuyus can only support them holding their nose.
To compare for example any of those jokes to someone like WSR like a big joke.
WSR ticks almost all boxes - brilliant, orator, wealthy, hardworking, leader, name it.
WSR can chew them and spit them...10 times in a row.
Now the question facing Mt kenya is simple in 2022 - they are approaching 2022 in weaken position.
If they were as strategic as kalenjin - this time to withdrew - to pull back
If you're a reckless luo - you only have one strategy - forward ever - it doesnt matter - if you're so exposed like a sitting duck!
I believe in Kenya - Kikuyu and Kalenjin - are very strategic communities.
They know when to go forward and when to go backward.
Kalenjin are very excellent in this
These guys are not fools - Kiunjuri, Kuria - they were the main drivers of anti-Uhuru, anti-dynaty narrative. Kiunjuri had to be fired after insisting Uhuruto deal be honored. Kuria would erupt with issues claming GoK neglect.
Give them credit.
They will not call press and "defect" from hustler nation... they will split it. Raising 1M1V and property rights is directly playing tribal card. By the time you have a new by-election - UDA will be facing TSP or PEP battle for the same base.
These guys are not late. If they play their cards right they can even inherit the Uhuru vote Ruto has failed to nail - and consolidate Gema. Of course it good move for them - relying on "Ruto is a gentleman" is really naive. They should corner him like they are doing.
If you struggled against Uhuru try these guys.
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Ruto has never scored any Mt Kenya votes - unless you mean Kiambaa where Kuria STEPPED DOWN for him. Running alone or as head of ticket is quite different from hiding behind Uhuru.
It's crunch time... even Kindiki insists it's coalition or nothing. Noone trusts your guy - sijui gentleman. They are all citing Uhuru betrayal as prime reason they must have a coalition 8)
RUTO WILL NOT WIN THIS FIGHT.
DP Mt Kenya allies insist on coalition
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/dp-ruto-s-mt-kenya-allies-insist-on-formation-of-a-coalition-3528986
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Prof Kindiki said the DP should allow parties supporting him to form regional parties or coalitions, then converge and form a national coalition that will go in the elections.
“I know my friend DP Ruto has said that he is not interested in coalition-making, but the diversity of the Kenyan society... requires a coalition government,” he said.
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Former Tharaka-Nithi governor Samuel Ragwa also said only a coalition government will accommodate the views and interests of all regions. He said DP Ruto should be the first person to advocate for a coalition government having witnessed the persecution of his political allies in Parliament.
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In short Herman Manyora was right: these guys pocketed Ruto cash for 3 years and now want to dump him. :) If he fights them he will lose and be left with a handful of Ndindi Nyoros. Once they edge out UDA - they will call Limuru 3 and demand an arm & a leg akin to URP in 2013.
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Okay we shall see :) - Manyora is dyed in the wool ODMoron. Mutahi is a paid propagadist - who long lost it.
In short Herman Manyora was right: these guys pocketed Ruto cash for 3 years and now want to dump him. :) If he fights them he will lose and be left with a handful of Ndindi Nyoros. Once they edge out UDA - they will call Limuru 3 and demand an arm & a leg akin to URP in 2013.
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UDA is on in Meru by-election. Ruto will not allow UDA momentum to go down. All these guys are riding on Ruto coattails. The Mt Kenya people want Ruto direct - not through brokers.
Power concede nothing. Ruto will not allow small parties to stop UDA national momentum.
Now after UDA nomination - Ruto will change tune - and support coalitions. So the TSP, and the likes should concentrate on their game - sell Hustler Nation - and Ruto - and reap from UDA nomination mess.
The same way Jubilee eventually entered a coalition with PDP - the party of Northern Kenya - now rebranded UDA.
Ruto only need to tell UDA folks not to attack Kiunjuri and Kuria - Gachagua has to restrain himself - cooperate with them - but everyone should sell their party.
Of course Ruto will also call them privately to assue them - that for political reasons - talking coalition now is becoming OKA - and in politics you need to differentiate your product
Ruto has never scored any Mt Kenya votes - unless you mean Kiambaa where Kuria STEPPED DOWN for him. Running alone or as head of ticket is quite different from hiding behind Uhuru.
It's crunch time... even Kindiki insists it's coalition or nothing. Noone trusts your guy - sijui gentleman. They are all citing Uhuru betrayal as prime reason they must have a coalition 8)
RUTO WILL NOT WIN THIS FIGHT.
DP Mt Kenya allies insist on coalition
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/dp-ruto-s-mt-kenya-allies-insist-on-formation-of-a-coalition-3528986
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You shoud reflect and not dismiss likes of Manyora off-the-cuff. They are whole college professors with Makau Mutua and Mutahi Ngunyi. Manyora predictions are unfolding as we watch.
Okay we shall see :)
In short Herman Manyora was right: these guys pocketed Ruto cash for 3 years and now want to dump him. :) If he fights them he will lose and be left with a handful of Ndindi Nyoros. Once they edge out UDA - they will call Limuru 3 and demand an arm & a leg akin to URP in 2013.
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We will see. Meru is mere MCA by-election - maybe they face off with Muturi party.
Gema is not NFD - it 10X the headcount. Kuria and Kiunjuri best shot is now and they know it. If you have a by-election in Central now - say Laikipia - TSP will field and Ruto will have to decide who is the worse enemy - Kiunjuri or Jubilee.
The problem of course is once TSP takes say Laikipia - the fire quickly spread to Nyeri, Kirinyaga - and you find Cate Waruguru now defecting to TSP from Jubilee.
Kiunjuri and Kuria will easily consolidate Gema - which is difficult for Ruto.
UDA is on in Meru by-election. Ruto will not allow UDA momentum to go down. All these guys are riding on Ruto coattails. The Mt Kenya people want Ruto direct - not through brokers.
Power concede nothing. Ruto will not allow small parties to stop UDA national momentum.
Now after UDA nomination - Ruto will change tune - and support coalitions. So the TSP, and the likes should concentrate on their game - sell Hustler Nation - and Ruto - and reap from UDA nomination mess.
The same way Jubilee eventually entered a coalition with PDP - the party of Northern Kenya - now rebranded UDA.
Ruto only need to tell UDA folks not to attack Kiunjuri and Kuria - Gachagua has to restrain himself - cooperate with them - but everyone should sell their party.
Of course Ruto will also call them privately to assue them - that for political reasons - talking coalition now is becoming OKA - and in politics you need to differentiate your product
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Exactly why RUTO will not allow his HARD WORK and BILLIONS invested in GEMA to go to waste. He has to bring the cows home through UDA.
Let Kiunjuri and Kuria spend their money, hardwork and patience to woo mt kenya to their parties. Kiunjuri kwanza should spend at least 100M to buy 2 mps and 10 Mcas :) - he only has former Kiambu MCA - thakwa or something.
Ruto has spend a decade in Mt kenya and is now harvesting...I can bet Ruto personal investment there runs into billions kshs...having those Mps and Mcas...some on almost weekly retainer is not cheap.
After beating Uhuru - who is Kuria or Kiunjuri.
Those guys cannot dare go against hustler nation because the ground will kick them. Therefore they will sing Hustler Nation and Ruto.
Ruto has not blocked anyone from campaign for Hustler Nation - but UDA will be the primary party.
Kiunjuri will come and negotiate something - huko April. Kuria took will negotiate something. For now Mt kenya is split into so many factions - if Ruto open the floodgate - it will be chaos.
UDA therefore better if it concentrate it's effort directly selling RUto - and then April-May - based on how data will look like - Ruto will negotiate with GEMA and NON-GEMA.
Who knows maybe by - Ruto will be at 70 percent :) and will indeed no need a coalition
The problem of course is once TSP takes say Laikipia - the fire quickly spread to Nyeri, Kirinyaga - and you find Cate Waruguru now defecting to TSP from Jubilee.
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So long as you remember Ruto is Kalenjin. If it go down to the wire.. you will see why he used Kuria, Gachagua, Kiunjuri and not take on Uhuru directly in the first place.
It more likely - Robina's prediction - Ruto will chicken and back off Kikuyuland. (I don't see a deal with Muturi who is too obviously Uhuru poodle). Ruto will allow TSP, PEP to run local show in Kikuyuland - and HOPE they don't go for highest bidder in 11th hour.
In few months.
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Ruto long ceased being a kalenjin - he is a national leader. Gideon Moi is a
kalenjin - not even a Tugen leader. Raila was once a national leader - but Uhuru in his byzantine plan has reduced him to Luo Leader. Moi was once a national leader.
Ruto has direct support of people across kenya. Tough luck taking him back to Kalenjin Nation.
Mt Kenya - Kikuyu-Meru-Embu - UDA is the party to beat - the rest are on the edges - pleading for mercy :). Siasa haina mercy. Power concede nothing.
My advice for them - either join UDA now or wait for party nomination - lots of UDA folks will be looking for Hustler Nation friendly parties - and negotiate something in May-June.
For now they can attack Gachagau or iron lady from Muranga - but they dare not attack Hustler Nation or Ruto - they know people want HASOLA and WIRROBARRO!
So long as you remember Ruto is Kalenjin. If it go down to the wire.. you will see why he used Kuria, Gachagua, Kiunjuri and not take on Uhuru directly in the first place.
It more likely - Robina's prediction - Ruto will chicken and back off Kikuyuland. (I don't see a deal with Muturi who is too obviously Uhuru poodle). Ruto will allow TSP, PEP to run local show in Kikuyuland - and HOPE they don't go for highest bidder in 11th hour.
In few months.
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Ati Ruto long stopped being Kalenjin. When was that? Can UDA run against Wiper in Kamba? When he attacks Uhuru directly and scathingly as he attacks Raila - then we are prepared to believe you anytime.
Even Raila is Luo... he need coalitions. You always mock ODM as Luo party... while drawing false equivalent to dead Jubilee... or worse UDA with 1MP. Ruto "national" party is mere few months old tayari shida kubwa. You will soon appreciate Raila leadership. Even Kalonzo is a better party leader than Ruto.
Anyway when the real Tangatanga war starts - haha - we will see about Ruto tribe. There is nothing national about Ruto leadership.
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Ruto is national leader - kalenjin are part of kenyan nation - but clearly Ruto even by 2013 - URP party had significant support from pastoralist - now based on opinion polls he is at 50 percent - and MOAS has him at 53 percent.
MaDVD is a sub-luhya nation leader. Kalonzo is Kamba nation leader. These are facts.It doesnt mean Ruto has to win everywhere - then he will become Kagame who wins with 98 percent. I believe in 2027 - Ruto will get near there.
We have by-election in Makueni - it's Wiper versus UDA. If we have any election in kenya - it will be UDA versus some tribal party.
Raila once had roughly half kenya - and now would be about jubilee 170mps - now as we speak he has 62 mps - 40 mps from Luos and 20 Mps from Mijikenda. Now Mijikenda are leaving him. That mean he is becoming a Luo leader. Those are just facts. Next election I see ODM struggling to get 40Mps.
In 10th parliament - it was 105 out of 210 mps.
In 11th parliament - it was 96mps out of 350 - Ruto took off with 78mps
In 12th parliament - it down to 62mps - Ruto took off another 30mps almost.
Now Ruto and Kingi - are circicling the remaining last non-luo bastion of ODM - at the coast
13th parliament - 35 Mps - he will lose some in Luo Nyanza if he mismanage ODM.
Facts are so stubborn - even if you have me banned :)
Ati Ruto long stopped being Kalenjin. When was that? Can UDA run against Wiper in Kamba? When he attacks Uhuru directly and scathingly as he attacks Raila - then we are prepared to believe you anytime.
Even Raila is Luo... he need coalitions. You always mock ODM as Luo party... while drawing false equivalent to dead Jubilee... or worse UDA with 1MP. Ruto "national" party is mere few months old tayari shida kubwa. You will soon appreciate Raila leadership. Even Kalonzo is a better party leader than Ruto.
Anyway when the real Tangatanga war starts - haha - we will see about Ruto tribe. There is nothing national about Ruto leadership.
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Ruto is more like a political tenderpreneur - starting and trading off companies. For quick returns. URP pastoralist party he quickly sold off to Jubilee - now on deathbed.
UDA of course is not a national party - running is not the same as winning. Or opening offices all over. ODM could easily field everywhere too - and get 10 to 20% like UDA in Kamba.
A NATIONAL PARTY - needs to exist at least a few election cycles - and perform beyond one tribe. ODM is a national party. Wiper or ANC is tribal party. Jubilee - Ruto's biggest achievement - was national for 2 minutes - August 2017 to March 2018 :)
Now UDA - 1 MP - is already facing coalition demands from its ONLY proper non-tribal base. Has it ever held party elections? When were the officials picked? Is Muthama still chairman - his utility was Machakos by-election? When are they replacing Omar with Jumwa? Is there a UDA manifesto - apart from the Ndii ponzi scheme? If you look closely - you find UDA is only an UPSTART without proper articles of assciation - and now the founders are unable to agree on the ownership. Ruto claim to be 100% owner - his cohorts are aghast - they think Kalenjin are only 50% owner.
See? Unless national has a new meaning. We don't know if UDA will survive one election cycle. Even dead Jubilee has a better record at this point.
Ruto is national leader - kalenjin are part of kenyan nation - but clearly Ruto even by 2013 - URP party had significant support from pastoralist - now based on opinion polls he is at 50 percent - and MOAS has him at 53 percent.
MaDVD is a sub-luhya nation leader. Kalonzo is Kamba nation leader. These are facts.It doesnt mean Ruto has to win everywhere - then he will become Kagame who wins with 98 percent. I believe in 2027 - Ruto will get near there.
We have by-election in Makueni - it's Wiper versus UDA. If we have any election in kenya - it will be UDA versus some tribal party.
Raila once had roughly half kenya - and now would be about jubilee 170mps - now as we speak he has 62 mps - 40 mps from Luos and 20 Mps from Mijikenda. Now Mijikenda are leaving him. That mean he is becoming a Luo leader. Those are just facts. Next election I see ODM struggling to get 40Mps.
In 10th parliament - it was 105 out of 210 mps.
In 11th parliament - it was 96mps out of 350 - Ruto took off with 78mps
In 12th parliament - it down to 62mps - Ruto took off another 30mps almost.
Now Ruto and Kingi - are circicling the remaining last non-luo bastion of ODM - at the coast
13th parliament - 35 Mps - he will lose some in Luo Nyanza if he mismanage ODM.
Facts are so stubborn - even if you have me banned :)
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Kenya parties including ODM are personality cults. There is no national party in kenya that transcend it leadership like in US or Tanzania. If Raila dies today - ODM dies.
UDA is Ruto - RUto is now a national leader. If today he wakes up and say form ADU - people will follow him - kalenjin, gema and the rest.
Ruto is more like a political tenderpreneur - starting and trading off companies. For quick returns. URP pastoralist party he quickly sold off to Jubilee - now on deathbed.
UDA of course is not a national party - running is not the same as winning. Or opening offices all over. ODM could easily field everywhere too - and get 10 to 20% like UDA in Kamba.
A NATIONAL PARTY - needs to exist at least a few election cycles - and perform beyond one tribe. ODM is a national party. Wiper or ANC is tribal party. Jubilee - Ruto's biggest achievement - was national for 2 minutes - August 2017 to March 2018 :)
Now UDA - 1 MP - is already facing coalition demands from its ONLY proper non-tribal base. Has it ever held party elections? When were the officials picked? Is Muthama still chairman - his utility was Machakos by-election? When are they replacing Omar with Jumwa? Is there a UDA manifesto - apart from the Ndii ponzi scheme? If you look closely - you find UDA is only an UPSTART without proper articles of assciation - and now the founders are unable to agree on the ownership. Ruto claim to be 100% owner - his cohorts are aghast - they think Kalenjin are only 50% owner.
See? Unless national has a new meaning. We don't know if UDA will survive one election cycle. Even dead Jubilee has a better record at this point.
Ruto is national leader - kalenjin are part of kenyan nation - but clearly Ruto even by 2013 - URP party had significant support from pastoralist - now based on opinion polls he is at 50 percent - and MOAS has him at 53 percent.
MaDVD is a sub-luhya nation leader. Kalonzo is Kamba nation leader. These are facts.It doesnt mean Ruto has to win everywhere - then he will become Kagame who wins with 98 percent. I believe in 2027 - Ruto will get near there.
We have by-election in Makueni - it's Wiper versus UDA. If we have any election in kenya - it will be UDA versus some tribal party.
Raila once had roughly half kenya - and now would be about jubilee 170mps - now as we speak he has 62 mps - 40 mps from Luos and 20 Mps from Mijikenda. Now Mijikenda are leaving him. That mean he is becoming a Luo leader. Those are just facts. Next election I see ODM struggling to get 40Mps.
In 10th parliament - it was 105 out of 210 mps.
In 11th parliament - it was 96mps out of 350 - Ruto took off with 78mps
In 12th parliament - it down to 62mps - Ruto took off another 30mps almost.
Now Ruto and Kingi - are circicling the remaining last non-luo bastion of ODM - at the coast
13th parliament - 35 Mps - he will lose some in Luo Nyanza if he mismanage ODM.
Facts are so stubborn - even if you have me banned :)
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There have been ODM MPs, governors, etc in most corners of Kenya - 15 yr+ Let compare notes when Ruto manages that. Not 1yr UDM. 3 yr URP. 6 mths Jubilee. 2 weeks UDA.
Ruto cannot maintain a cult past a few years. No discipline. No leadership. No nothing.
Kenya parties including ODM are personality cults. There is no national party in kenya that transcend it leadership like in US or Tanzania. If Raila dies today - ODM dies.
UDA is Ruto - RUto is now a national leader. If today he wakes up and say form ADU - people will follow him - kalenjin, gema and the rest.
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KANU has been here for longer. ODM inherited part of KANU when Raila took off. The KANU constitutency that Moi had maintained for 25yrs and kept in power - Raila has totally misused it - and Ruto was keen to take it back.
Ruto has not only taken back most of Moi KANU from Raila - but also added huge part of GEMA - that is why he is unbeatable in 2022.
There have been ODM MPs, governors, etc in most corners of Kenya - 15 yr+ Let compare notes when Ruto manages that. Not 1yr UDM. 3 yr URP. 6 mths Jubilee. 2 weeks UDA.
Ruto cannot maintain a cult past a few years. No discipline. No leadership. No nothing.
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I am saying let talk when Ruto wins PORK. Uhuru level. Or at least manage a national party for 2 electoral cycles. Raila level. Hii UDA 2 months old baby - is proof of nothing. ODM is 15 yrs old.
The only national party William Ruto has built is Jubilee - which imploded after 6 months. The man did his mlolongo crazy cheating and was literally chased. Then he wails ati ameomewa.
Now his Gema allies already don't trust the guy - despite endless investment in time, energy, money - they want coalition. Talk is very cheap.
KANU has been here for longer. ODM inherited part of KANU when Raila took off. The KANU constitutency that Moi had maintained for 25yrs and kept in power - Raila has totally misused it - and Ruto was keen to take it back.
Ruto has not only taken back most of Moi KANU from Raila - but also added huge part of GEMA - that is why he is unbeatable in 2022.
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UDA for all practical reason is Jubilee - and last I checked UDA meetings are attracting 150mps - and more are defecting - I think Kuttuny is about to join. Of the Jubilee Mps - we have about 15mps remaining with Uhuru.
But if you're interested in useless polemics - then UDA has one official MP - and one independent leaning one.
I am saying let talk when Ruto wins PORK. Uhuru level. Or at least manage a national party for 2 electoral cycles. Raila level. Hii UDA 2 months old baby - is proof of nothing. ODM is 15 yrs old.
The only national party William Ruto has built is Jubilee - which imploded after 6 months. The man did his mlolongo crazy cheating and was literally chased. Then he wails ati ameomewa.
Now his Gema allies already don't trust the guy - despite endless investment in time, energy, money - they want coalition. Talk is very cheap.
KANU has been here for longer. ODM inherited part of KANU when Raila took off. The KANU constitutency that Moi had maintained for 25yrs and kept in power - Raila has totally misused it - and Ruto was keen to take it back.
Ruto has not only taken back most of Moi KANU from Raila - but also added huge part of GEMA - that is why he is unbeatable in 2022.
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UDA is quicksand movement. Akin to Rainbow Alliance at best. No it is not Jubilee - at least that one WON an election - and lasted 6 months. I guess you have extremely low standards for Ruto. ODM is not a national party but UDA is national :o Because they can hold a kamukunji with 150 MPs. Do those MPs even vote for Ruto positions in parliament? Ohoo he lets them vote as they wish.
No, Pundit, UDA is not a national party by any stretch of the imagination. Upstart maybe?
Let us check in a few years.
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Strawman argument. UDA is Ruto party. Its not a national party per see but has national support. Its likely to last as long as Ruto has trusted officials - but if Muthama and company - play games - Ruto will form another one.
UDA is quicksand movement. Akin to Rainbow Alliance at best. No it is not Jubilee - at least that one WON an election - and lasted 6 months. I guess you have extremely low standards for Ruto. ODM is not a national party but UDA is national :o Because they can hold a kamukunji with 150 MPs. Do those MPs even vote for Ruto positions in parliament? Ohoo he lets them vote as they wish.
No, Pundit, UDA is not a national party by any stretch of the imagination. Upstart maybe?
Let us check in a few years.
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Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end . :D :D
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On the contrary UDA will sweep all - winning with small margins. In 2013-2017 TNA/Jubilee candidate maybe won with 80 percent - against one or two parties. Now if you put 10 parties - all sharing 50 percent - and UDA say starting at 50 percent - UDA wins with smallest of margins.
The only way to beat UDA in Mt kenya is to have one stronger party like Jubilee tried in Kiambu. 10 parties is handing Ruto the entire Mt kenya Mps on a silver platter.
So expect results like TSP 10 percent, Kuria CCK 20 percent, Jubilee 15 percent, UDA candidate wins with 40 percent. Next const UDA wins with 35, next with 45, next with 50. In RV - UDA candidates will be winning with 70-80 percent - with other parties getting 30 percent.
That is how Moi won in 1992 and 1997 against the divided opposition.
If all anti-UDA parties unite - then Ruto will do 50-50 - it will be like Kiambu - hit and miss - but 10 parties - with Ruto core assume at even 40 percent - Ruto's UDA will win.
Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end . :D :D
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On the contrary UDA will sweep all - winning with small margins. In 2013-2017 TNA/Jubilee candidate maybe won with 80 percent - against one or two parties. Now if you put 10 parties - all sharing 50 percent - and UDA say starting at 50 percent - UDA wins with smallest of margins.
The only way to beat UDA in Mt kenya is to have one stronger party like Jubilee tried in Kiambu. 10 parties is handing Ruto the entire Mt kenya Mps on a silver platter.
So expect results like TSP 10 percent, Kuria CCK 20 percent, Jubilee 15 percent, UDA candidate wins with 40 percent. Next const UDA wins with 35, next with 45, next with 50. In RV - UDA candidates will be winning with 70-80 percent - with other parties getting 30 percent.
That is how Moi won in 1992 and 1997 against the divided opposition.
If all anti-UDA parties unite - then Ruto will do 50-50 - it will be like Kiambu - hit and miss - but 10 parties - with Ruto core assume at even 40 percent - Ruto's UDA will win.
Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end . :D :D
The assumption being that UDA as a party is very popular in Mt. Kenya? UDA isn't TNA, PNU or Jubilee in Mt.Kenya, And by the way even in kiambaa there were other small parties and independents, but UDA and jubilee candidates were either well funded or well-known. Without a powerful mt.kenya presidential candidate that all Mps aspirant have to associate with, it'll be free for all.
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UDA is Ruto. If Ruto is popular then UDA is popular. Yes of course it wont be Jubilee or TNA so it wont win 80 percent. And if all the parties united under some banner - then it will be 50-50. Like Kiambu - where despite all the parties - it was clear two horse races...after Jubilee saw dust in Juja and got spooked.
Now imagine a scenario where Kuria is selling his candidate, next Kiunjuri sells his own, next Uhuru is selling and financing his Jubilee, next DP, next Narc Kenya. next PN
So the guy who gets UDA ticket - will start with Ruto core support - even if it's 35 percent - he already wins- by the smallest of margins.
Now until Mt kenya find a candidate to rival Ruto - UDA is the party to beat. Raila wont sell. MaDVD maybe :). If maDVD was to be endorsed by Uhuru - yeah then Ruto would need worried. But Babaman hiyo ni sleepwalking to mt kenya peak.
Also internal Mt kenya candidate is still a possibility - if all ant-Ruto forces can unite.
Otherwise UDA if it competes with friendly parties like CCK, TSP and such - will sweep the board with 33 percent of the vote - mps elected with smallest of mandate.
The assumption being that UDA as a party is very popular in Mt. Kenya? UDA isn't TNA, PNU or Jubilee in Mt.Kenya, And by the way even in kiambaa there were other small parties and independents, but UDA and jubilee candidates were either well funded or well-known. Without a powerful mt.kenya presidential candidate that all Mps aspirant have to associate with, it'll be free for all.
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If you are a Raila supporter I will give you free advice. If you can pass it to him.
If he wants to defeat Ruto , he needs to do one of the following
1. Most effective Show Support to Ruto ala Hamdshake with Ruto.
2. Secondly Decide to quit politics
3. Tosha Someone else.
If Raila is on ballot come 2022 he will be beaten with worse Margins . This is free advice.
On the contrary UDA will sweep all - winning with small margins. In 2013-2017 TNA/Jubilee candidate maybe won with 80 percent - against one or two parties. Now if you put 10 parties - all sharing 50 percent - and UDA say starting at 50 percent - UDA wins with smallest of margins.
The only way to beat UDA in Mt kenya is to have one stronger party like Jubilee tried in Kiambu. 10 parties is handing Ruto the entire Mt kenya Mps on a silver platter.
So expect results like TSP 10 percent, Kuria CCK 20 percent, Jubilee 15 percent, UDA candidate wins with 40 percent. Next const UDA wins with 35, next with 45, next with 50. In RV - UDA candidates will be winning with 70-80 percent - with other parties getting 30 percent.
That is how Moi won in 1992 and 1997 against the divided opposition.
If all anti-UDA parties unite - then Ruto will do 50-50 - it will be like Kiambu - hit and miss - but 10 parties - with Ruto core assume at even 40 percent - Ruto's UDA will win.
Mt.kenya will have many mps elected from small parties or independents. Kiunjuri was Ruto's jubilee nomination henchman in mt. kenya. He very understands that he needs his own party to be able to demand positions in the next government. Moses Kuria fondly nicknamed kikuyu hero(njamba ya rururi), is even more brunt that Mt.kenya will not join other tribes dominated parties. Even the most ardent Ruto supporters (rigathi, ndindi, ichungwa etc) have recoiled. This is the beginning of peeling away from UDA and Ruto in Mt. kenya. The man to watch is Mudavadi, if he's on the ballot he might shock some people by the amount of support he might get from Mt.kenya. Especially if he were to select Mt. kenya as a running mate. I am no political pundit but there's something brewing in mt.kenya. Obviously I could be totally off the deep end . :D :D
The assumption being that UDA as a party is very popular in Mt. Kenya? UDA isn't TNA, PNU or Jubilee in Mt.Kenya, And by the way even in kiambaa there were other small parties and independents, but UDA and jubilee candidates were either well funded or well-known. Without a powerful mt.kenya presidential candidate that all Mps aspirant have to associate with, it'll be free for all.