Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 12, 2021, 04:58:17 PM
-
Negotiating outside the UDA tent I think is not tenable unless Kiunjuri-Kuria-Martha can prove they have some support. Their best bet is to join UDA - and negotiate inside.
For now, Ruto will ignore their tantrums and continue selling UDA directly in Mt Kenya. They can also sell their parties - and see how far they go. Come April-May - that is when people will sit down on the table - and do deals.
Mt Kenya leaders want to see Ruto directly - not through 'brokers'. The brokers have blocked Uhuru.Mt Kenya hustlers similarly do not want long stories about political deals.
Of the three - Moses Kuria has some bite - Kiunjuri TSP has completely failed to start - Martha damaged herself a long time ago.
My advice for them - attack Uhuru day in day out - seize the anger of people - without fear or favour like Ndidi Nyoro/Gachagua/Kuria - then you'll get popular support - to be able to negotiate with Ruto. This is what killed Mwangi Kiunjuri - too cowardly to attack Uhuru.
Otherwise why would Ruto negotiate 50 percent with an empty suit - he will simply negotiate 5 percent for each of the many GEMA leaders.
(https://scontent-cdt1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/p526x296/221477497_4276203569123986_5120449110508495451_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-4&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=-iVrZ2tnOwsAX_EN3X9&_nc_oc=AQkTHLPUAisQJNmcz_TPBpgtgXP7k360FVl6FoKbJz0g-79O9xwWVvbLLeLi4IaG374&_nc_ht=scontent-cdt1-1.xx&oh=6482e03d7755fe904bc6e5f927bc1b20&oe=613BABE6)
-
What happens if the tsunami turns out to be one of those soft Kenyan breezes that come and go and require not even a sweater? Politics is a strange game.
Negotiating outside the UDA tent I think is not tenable unless Kiunjuri-Kuria-Martha can prove they have some support. Their best bet is to join UDA - and negotiate inside.
For now, Ruto will ignore their tantrums and continue selling UDA directly in Mt Kenya. They can also sell their parties - and see how far they go. Come April-May - that is when people will sit down on the table - and do deals.
Mt Kenya leaders want to see Ruto directly - not through 'brokers'. The brokers have blocked Uhuru.Mt Kenya hustlers similarly do not want long stories about political deals.
Of the three - Moses Kuria has some bite - Kiunjuri TSP has completely failed to start - Martha damaged herself a long time ago.
My advice for them - attack Uhuru day in day out - seize the anger of people - without fear or favour like Ndidi Nyoro/Gachagua/Kuria - then you'll get popular support - to be able to negotiate with Ruto. This is what killed Mwangi Kiunjuri - too cowardly to attack Uhuru.
Otherwise why would Ruto negotiate 50 percent with an empty suit - he will simply negotiate 5 percent for each of the many GEMA leaders.
(https://scontent-cdt1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/p526x296/221477497_4276203569123986_5120449110508495451_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-4&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=-iVrZ2tnOwsAX_EN3X9&_nc_oc=AQkTHLPUAisQJNmcz_TPBpgtgXP7k360FVl6FoKbJz0g-79O9xwWVvbLLeLi4IaG374&_nc_ht=scontent-cdt1-1.xx&oh=6482e03d7755fe904bc6e5f927bc1b20&oe=613BABE6)
-
If they are naturally selecting themselves out of the DPORK race then Ruto should be smiling as he has a smaller pool to choose from, fewer negroes to disappoint, but I doubt he is all smiles.
-
Ruto has Mt kenya people support; direct; this not like 2012 when Uhuru needed Ruto to sell in Kalenin;Ruto can pick anybody from the streets as long as he is mt kenya and say he is hustler like wanjiku of kiambaa - and wins. The only condition Ruto must pick a kikuyu.
Therefore Ruto who is already inside Mt kenya tent will continue to grow UDA. For Kiunjuri-Musa - their best bet is to enter UDA tent and piss from inside. Pissing outside alone while everyone is inside is playing offside. Whatever goal you score.
What damage can they cause that Uhuru and Kieleweke havent caused? For Moses - it easy to call him a Uhuru spy who was just in Hustler Nation as double agent - he is kaput - Ruto has majority and if they all synced and call Moses Kuria - Uhuru spy - mambo kwisha.
For Kiunjuri - Munya is killing the last bit of him by doing better in agriculture.
Bottomline - Alice Wahome - looking good.
You cannot use old template in new dynamics; My advice; fold up; join UDA; become team players with rest of GEMA; and negotiate as a team; Ruto is of course going to give Mt kenya DPORK and 50 percent.
Forming a party is afternoon thing, quiting the same - signing as party - give no assurance - all this is game of goodwill and trust - Ruto can jump any agreement as PORK like Uhuru has done - there is nothing you can do to him - because ODM and likes will be waiting in the wings.
Kalonzo has signed how many agreement with Raila - and all have been thrown out - and now he is being told to sign yet another - and somehow Uhuru will make sure it is honoured - when Raila become PORK :) :) - that most nonsensical thing.
Agreement will be honoured as long as youre useful - and that usefulness ends at election date - unless someone thing of re-election
If they are naturally selecting themselves out of the DPORK race then Ruto should be smiling as he has a smaller pool to choose from, fewer negroes to disappoint, but I doubt he is all smiles.
-
:) i just need to point to the razor-thin UDA vs Jubilee margins - 500 votes - despite Kuria stepping his boy down. Kuria the man is more popular than UDA - his boy managed 60% in Juja. What you don't want those guys doing is openly taking on Ruto - calling him foreigner :) - utajua Kenya ni tribal. Manyora prediction that UDA will be Kalenjin party is looking very wise about now.
First accept Ruto & UDA are not that popular. They are splitting votes with dynasty despite desperate folks committing mass suicides. Now if you split from Kuria the progaganda mouthpiece - dude spits anti-Kenyatta poison. If he turn the venom to Ruto and remind people about genocide you are dead. That gives him very big leverage.
What is likely to happen now - they do Limuru and draft irreducible minimums. Declare all foreigners are equal :) and will be judged by their offers. Now recall these are RUTO CAMP manenos - hawajaanzana na Muturi, Uhuru na Baba.
Ruto has Mt kenya people support; direct; this not like 2012 when Uhuru needed Ruto to sell in Kalenin;Ruto can pick anybody from the streets as long as he is mt kenya and say he is hustler like wanjiku of kiambaa - and wins. The only condition Ruto must pick a kikuyu.
Therefore Ruto who is already inside Mt kenya tent will continue to grow UDA. For Kiunjuri-Musa - their best bet is to enter UDA tent and piss from inside. Pissing outside alone while everyone is inside is playing offside. Whatever goal you score.
What damage can they cause that Uhuru and Kieleweke havent caused? For Moses - it easy to call him a Uhuru spy who was just in Hustler Nation as double agent - he is kaput - Ruto has majority and if they all synced and call Moses Kuria - Uhuru spy - mambo kwisha.
For Kiunjuri - Munya is killing the last bit of him by doing better in agriculture.
Bottomline - Alice Wahome - looking good.
You cannot use old template in new dynamics; My advice; fold up; join UDA; become team players with rest of GEMA; and negotiate as a team; Ruto is of course going to give Mt kenya DPORK and 50 percent.
Forming a party is afternoon thing, quiting the same - signing as party - give no assurance - all this is game of goodwill and trust - Ruto can jump any agreement as PORK like Uhuru has done - there is nothing you can do to him - because ODM and likes will be waiting in the wings.
Kalonzo has signed how many agreement with Raila - and all have been thrown out - and now he is being told to sign yet another - and somehow Uhuru will make sure it is honoured - when Raila become PORK :) :) - that most nonsensical thing.
Agreement will be honoured as long as youre useful - and that usefulness ends at election date - unless someone thing of re-election
-
Kuria will be joining a legion of the losers in Kieleweke who are now diving right in. In fact they are many hoping he does that so he can be replaced. Kangata for example he shouting so much - and so is the recent wamuchomba - they are elbowing others as they shout Ruto tosha.
The thing is Ruto support is DIRECT. Kabogo has tried - that line - and he was told to go jump into river tana. Kiunjuri has tried to sell TSP - 2yrs late - NO TAKERS.
If Uhuru cannot beat Ruto in Mt Kenya - how can Kuria do it.
Kuria - can be finished by simple propaganda that Murathe has said he is a spy. He will just be associated with Raila :) and he is done.
Kiunjuri - Munya is finishing him. You cannot just sell tribalism. You also need to perform. Now Kiunjuri did not perform in agriculture - compared to Munya now.
So again - Kuria/Kiunjuri can only appeal to Kieleweke - not UDA guys.Ruto now has like 45 out of 60 mps of Mt kenya. If one leave - the rest will gang up against him.
I would advice Kuria to play for long term - his party has some traction - do not fight UDA or Ruto now - you will lose - for Kiunjuri - fold that TSP - tissue paper and flush down - and join UDA/Ruto. TSP has failed to get any traction. It's not Ruto's fault. It's Kiunjuri cowardice.
:) i just need to point to the razor-thin UDA vs Jubilee margins - 500 votes - despite Kuria stepping his boy down. Kuria the man is more popular than UDA - his boy managed 60% in Juja. What you don't want those guys doing is openly taking on Ruto - calling him foreigner :) - utajua Kenya ni tribal. Manyora prediction that UDA will be Kalenjin party is looking very wise about now.
-
Ohoo boy, I wish there was by-election in Kirinyaga or somewhere right now, and see how the cookie crumble. Moses Kuria lethal tongue killed Uhuru-Jubilee - NOT Ruto tongue - and as you can see the entire hustler clan can BARELY take on Jubilee.
You don't want 3-horse race in Central by-election - Ruto could easily emerge as 3rd mule like Matungu or Kisii. I warned you the danger of selling new party while masquerading as a local... and the high potency of the trojan horse.
-
Is it the tongue or the message. It is the message. Kuria is not even eloguent in any language - at least Kiunjuri is good in Kikuyu. You can have lethal tongue but if you sell Raila - in mt kenya - then you're done. The thing is UDA and Ruto has not stopped Kuria or TSP from selling their party.
Let them prove their worth. Kuria made a mistake to back UDA in Kiambaa - and is just woken up to the reality that UDA will roll-over Mt Kenya.
Let me tell in 2007 - Ruto was for Kalonzo - Kalenjin were for Kalonzo - but at some point Kalonzo lost Kalenjin because he was not attacking Kibaki and expressing kalenjin anger - Kalonzo on April of 2007 - led in the opinion poll. He had 40 percent. Kibaki followed with 30 percent. Raila could not even manage 15 percent. I remember I was home in that April - and people just had no time for Raila - kalenjin never had time for Odinga and Luos brand of politics - Kalonzo was their kind of sober leader - so it was no brainer...by Oct/Nov - it was completely opposite.
The more Kalenjin got angier; the more they wanted kibaki/mt kenya anti-dote; someone as bitter as them; they went for Raila'; someone who was also as angry as them
By time Ruto and Kalonzo realized they had lost people it was too late. Kalonzo to this day doesn't understand what hell happened in those 4 months :)
Ruto quickly realized this; and run to the front; dropped Kalonzo; and bidded his time to go at Raila in the future.
GEMA are very angry with their leadership; you need to seize that anger; Infact the quickest way to become leader in Mt kenya now is to call Uhuru names. That will elevate you. You will be speaking the language people want to hear.
Selling Uhuru or Raila is 100 percent guaranteed to send you home. Abusing Uhuru and her mother is 100 percent straight ticket to next leadership
Kiunjuri problem are bigger - because unlike Kuria who is expressing the people anger - he is a coward - promising Uhuru a war if he attack him next time :) there is no next time; You need to attack Uhuru without any provocation if that is what people want.
Ohoo boy, I wish there was by-election in Kirinyaga or somewhere right now, and see how the cookie crumble. Moses Kuria lethal tongue killed Uhuru-Jubilee - NOT Ruto tongue - and as you can see the entire hustler clan can BARELY take on Jubilee.
You don't want 3-horse race in Central by-election - Ruto could easily emerge as 3rd mule like Matungu or Kisii. I warned you the danger of selling new party while masquerading as a local... and the high potency of the trojan horse.
-
Moses Kuria has already done all those things - insult Uhuru, Mama Ngina, dynasty, tap into public anger of covid or jobs. Fairly well. NOW he is playing new card Ruto didn't see coming. He is saying, dude, this is my base - yours is RV and pastoralists.
Re-read that part - I had to read twice to be sure they were attacking UDA and not ODM. Words like "foreign parties" or "no party can claim to be national." "Limuru 3" or "irreducible minimums". "Community interest" These are very DANGEROUS words being spewed against a new party with 1 MP, 1MCA lead by a Kakenjin.
Pundit you should be afraid. Which is what I read in this thread - staying ahead of the ball - so full of "advice" for Kuria and Kiunjuri. They have considered all those things and chosen to fight UDA.
-
This not about me. This about Ruto - the best propagadist in sub-sahara africa. I mean well for both of them. TSP fold up and join UDA. Kuria play for the long term.
You cannot destroy Ruto with all that - people have pulled Kiambaa videos; played Moi videos; they have done all that Kalenjin bla bla.Mutahi Ngunyi has turned otherwise intelligent kids into pitiable mess as they produce video on Ruto every week without any traction. He even burnt his Runda home on the eve of Kiambaa
It did not work for kieleweke; what makes you think it will work for Kuria.
Kuria best bet - play on the fringes and harvest from UDA nomination - get 2 or 3 CS from Ruto - and play for the future. It is not possible to get DPORK - coming from Gatundu South and as Kikuyu - just BAD OPTICS.
Some of you political neophytes think it easy for PEOPLE TO CHANGE their mind. My friend it not easy for Ruto to achieve what he has done in Mt kenya. Its like you see someone and his wife fighting -and getting nasty and all bloody - but tomorrow they are together :)
It NOT easy to decouple Ruto from Mt Kenya. Ask Uhuru kenyatta :). What is this new novel propaganda that you will UNLEASH now :) That other side cannot counter. Unless youre dealing with Raila - but Ruto the BEST PROPAGANDIST - utalia sana,
Moses Kuria has already done all those things - insult Uhuru, Mama Ngina, dynasty, tap into public anger of covid or jobs. Fairly well. NOW he is playing new card Ruto didn't see coming. He is saying, dude, this is my base - yours is RV and pastoralists.
Re-read that part - I had to read twice to be sure they were attacking UDA and not ODM. Words like "foreign parties" or "no party can claim to be national." "Limuru 3" or "irreducible minimums". "Community interest" These are very DANGEROUS words being spewed against a new party with 1 MP, 1MCA lead by a Kakenjin.
Pundit you should be afraid. Which is what I read in this thread - staying ahead of the ball - so full of "advice" for Kuria and Kiunjuri. They have considered all those things and chosen to fight UDA.
-
Ruto is of course going to give Mt kenya DPORK and 50 percent.
That is actually what they are trying to fight for, if Ruto picks anyone e.g Bonoko for D.P, rest assured there will be no 50%. Ruto would want to keep his options open, esp. with Gema secured, 10% to Duale, maybe 15% to someone in Western / Coast ...... Kuria and TSP fellow are trying to fight for a big % but I doubt they will be successfull, their negotiation tactics are wanting. You don't invite the camel inside the tent before negotiation. Thats the blunder they did.
-
Yes that 50 percent will depend on Ruto projection (definitely opinion polling is going on under radar). If the guys coming for the deal - are not bringing 100 percent of GEMA - but maybe 60 percent - then that 50 percent will drop to 35 percent - and Ruto will try to get Kalonzo or MaDVD to fill the void.
So the way things are going; it will be Mt kenya 35 percent; Former URP including Duale; 35 percent; then 30 percent is what is on offer for Kalonzo (I think Muthama is working on him) - otherwise I suspect Weta has probably signed his 10 percent.
The position to be shared of course DPORK, Speakers of both parliament(2), Majority Leaders of Senate/NA, 22 cabinet seats; maybe 40 PSes, 200 public sector corporations and boards - total could be 1000 plus jobs, 70 ambassadors and that pretty much it.
The problem with Kalonzo is the demand for DPORK as a minimum - this what got him out of Jubilee in 2013 - and this is what Raila normally offers him.
Duale with Ruto in statehouse - will resign as Mp - and go for cabinet. He is not going to be arguing with Babu Owino. He knows under Ruto he will literally pick any ministry and would be a sacred cow.
That is actually what they are trying to fight for, if Ruto picks anyone e.g Bonoko for D.P, rest assured there will be no 50%. Ruto would want to keep his options open, esp. with Gema secured, 10% to Duale, maybe 15% to someone in Western / Coast ...... Kuria and TSP fellow are trying to fight for a big % but I doubt they will be successfull, their negotiation tactics are wanting. You don't invite the camel inside the tent before negotiation. Thats the blunder they did.
-
Ruto needs all the help he can get - and scuttling his flock and trouble in his few months old party is really bad. Instead of the Jubilee remnants joining - it now wait-n-see at best.
Trojan is lethal... UDA is a new party - 1MP - underrate Kuria and Kiunjuri at your peril. They will play under-dog which Ruto does with Uhuru.
Meantime Raila and his CM Uhuru are holding night meetings to cobble NARC 2. Kalonzo seem on verge of signing up.
This not about me. This about Ruto - the best propagadist in sub-sahara africa. I mean well for both of them. TSP fold up and join UDA. Kuria play for the long term.
You cannot destroy Ruto with all that - people have pulled Kiambaa videos; played Moi videos; they have done all that Kalenjin bla bla.Mutahi Ngunyi has turned otherwise intelligent kids into pitiable mess as they produce video on Ruto every week without any traction. He even burnt his Runda home on the eve of Kiambaa
It did not work for kieleweke; what makes you think it will work for Kuria.
Kuria best bet - play on the fringes and harvest from UDA nomination - get 2 or 3 CS from Ruto - and play for the future. It is not possible to get DPORK - coming from Gatundu South and as Kikuyu - just BAD OPTICS.
Some of you political neophytes think it easy for PEOPLE TO CHANGE their mind. My friend it not easy for Ruto to achieve what he has done in Mt kenya. Its like you see someone and his wife fighting -and getting nasty and all bloody - but tomorrow they are together :)
It NOT easy to decouple Ruto from Mt Kenya. Ask Uhuru kenyatta :). What is this new novel propaganda that you will UNLEASH now :) That other side cannot counter. Unless youre dealing with Raila - but Ruto the BEST PROPAGANDIST - utalia sana,
-
Of course this is very great for us Raila fans. The more headaches Ruto has the better. I bet Mdvd sees less hope of being Ruto DPORK now.
-
We shall see. This is like Muturi/Kiraitu Mt Kenya east bla de bla. Or like Munya-Kabogo. The ground is very hostile for anybody who wants to divide the hustle nation.
Ruto is in a good place - if you check my MOAS thread - he needs 60 percent of GEMA MOAS to be at 48 percent - and someone like Kingi or Weta - bringing 2 percent can close the deal.
Ruto even with 40 percent of Mt Kenya - just need a Kalonzo to win.
As for Raila - he is starting around 25-30 percent - and he needs NASA crew to go back to 45 percent - and then try to get Uhuru to bring in 5 percent.
But as we speak NASA already lost 2-3 percent to Ruto - so they are starting combined at 42-43 percent - they need to unite - all of them plus new ones like Kingis - before they can ask Uhuru to bring in 1/3 of Mt kenya - and it goes to wire:)
If they do not unite -all of them - they do not need to run for PORK; IEBC should give certificate to the WSR.
Ruto needs all the help he can get - and scuttling his flock and trouble in his few months old party is really bad. Instead of the Jubilee remnants joining - it now wait-n-see at best.
Trojan is lethal... UDA is a new party - 1MP - underrate Kuria and Kiunjuri at your peril. They will play under-dog which Ruto does with Uhuru.
Meantime Raila and his CM Uhuru are holding night meetings to cobble NARC 2. Kalonzo seem on verge of signing up.
-
NOWAY, come here. This concerns your favorite party and candidate. I see the Kuria, Kiunjuri shenanigans as a big threat to Ruto - basically they want UDA to bug off and leave Mt Kenya to them. It makes me very happy.
Are they bluffing? Can Ruto afford to shrug them off? Or take them on.
-
In mt.kenya there's a sizable citizenry that's anti- raila but also there are voters who are never-ruto especially the 40 and above group. In kiambaa according to "insiders" internal polling jubilee candidate was 80% to 20% behind and pulled almost even after jubilee attacked UDA directly. This is what maybe( I am guessing) that has emboldened Martha,kuria and kiunjuri to form the loose coalition.
-
So right now - what percentage would you say would vote for Ruto in Mt kenya.
While I was in Nairobi - from Kikuyus - I could tell Ruto folks were young and mostly the unwashed - the poor - who had bought hustler versus elite - for them it's a class war.
The older kikuyu generation were 50-50 - on Ruto - but also have issue with Raila. These are people who'd vote for another candidate apart from R or R - either maDVD or Kalonzo if Uhuru was to sell or a credible candidate of their own.
The meru-embus I found to be most pro-Ruto - from old to new ones - they do not have the PEV bitterness like most Kikuyus - and feel esp Merus that Uhuru has not been as good as Kibaki was to them - and seem Ruto will score almost like Uhuru did.
Another thing I could notice - most of women were pro-Ruto than most men. I guess they like church thing.
In mt.kenya there's a sizable citizenry that's anti- raila but also there are voters who are never-ruto especially the 40 and above group. In kiambaa according to "insiders" internal polling jubilee candidate was 80% to 20% behind and pulled almost even after jubilee attacked UDA directly. This is what maybe( I am guessing) that has emboldened Martha,kuria and kiunjuri to form the loose coalition.
-
Hii Justo is confusing
Since when did he deliver Ruto’s message?
Interesting times
?s=21
-
Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.
Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.
-
Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.
Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.
If things stay as they are I see the cookie crumbling as it did in Kiambaa: Ruto solo 50 vs 50 everyone else.
If UDA vs Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans persist - things can go very bad for Ruto. Those youths did not decide to hate Uhuru but were incited by Kurias.
If BBI comes back - more problems for Ruto.
-
Pundit's story about Merus-Embus being heavily pro-Ruto is backed by nothing solid. Wishes. There has not been a proper match there unlike West to indicate that Ruto is so popular. Unlike Kikuyu, there is no Uhuru to demonize there - Muturi is local boy backed most big Kiraitus.
Ruto weakness in MKE: no Uhuru punchbag. No Raila to demonize. No DPORK to offer with the apparent Kikuyu problems. Muturi will run circles around him.
Muturi party vs UDA. No Jubilee.
-
You make it sounds like Raila is blameless? No he is not. You need to understand why Raila has contributed to this hatred in Mt kenya. Of course some of it his inherited beef btw Jaramogi and Luos during Kenyatta era.
But let focus on Raila sins - and how he can 'repent'.
1) It starts in Langata const. In 1993-1998 when he won Langata. The first thing he did was to tell Luo slum dwellers not to pay rent to landlords. He called them slum structures owners. This I believe he has repeated severally. He also identifies himself as a socialist (communist) like his father.
Kikuyu fear that if Raila wins - Luos will refuse to pay rent. In fact every election - Kikuyus evict Luos or refuse to rent to Luos their properties.
Socialism/communism is no longer a problem - in fact worldwide it's back in vogue - but the genuine fear from Mt kenya that Raila will incite his supporters to refuse to pay for rent and other services is REAL.
2) The fear he will incite Land clashes against Kikuyu diaspora. This he has done in Coast, Maasai and RV. As late as 2017 - he was in Kajiado quoted saying watu warudi kwao. That flipped Gusii votes. Raila once he entered KANU - realized that Moi KANU (really old KADU coalition) - was Anti-Kikuyu platform - and their biggest beef was land grab of 60-70s. He has tried to feed that monster in coast, kamatusa and such areas..so they support him.
Raila even adopted Majimbo/Fedaralism - something he and Luo intellegnisa had opposed from 1950s - through 1990s. Once inside the KADU tent - he adopted Land grievance agenda of Mijikenda, Maasai and Kalenjin - and the Majimbo.
The land grievance -majimbo-devolution is Anti-Kikuyu agenda and you do not expect to be loved by GEMA and Non-GEMA - Ruto may break the jinx with his WIN-WIN philosophy.
3) The 2007 anti-kikuyu rhetoric that led to war. Here both him and Ruto are blamed.
4) Raila has improved on quarrelsome relationship with GEMA - this time he has really become Uhuru bia.tch. Previously it was just makelele with Kibaki in NARC and later in NARA.
Ruto has almost paid his penances - by supporting Uhuru for 10yrs, kikuyus also realize they need to make peace with RV - coz there are maybe a thousand of kikuyus in Kisumu - but a million in rv.
Most importantly Raila is very reckless and cannot stay on message - propaganda wise. Ruto has manage to clean up his act with Mt kenya because he is good in propaganda and can stay on message. Raila CANNOT.
That biggest hurdle he faces in Mt Kenya. Raila is his Greastest Enemy. You can struggle to sell Raila - only for him to say something stupid - and make all your effort zero. Like Mama Mboga ni TakaTaka. Or like he said in 2007 - hatutaki Madoadoa. Or in Kajiado recently - in 2017 - inciting Maasai on land.
I remember in 2007 - Ruto use to struggle to clean up Raila gaffes. In fact Raila should stick to written speech :) - and he may be able to get 20 percent of Mt kenya.
The moment he opens his mouth :) - he will likely say something stupid.
Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.
Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.
-
Mp seats give you the direction; the indicator of where majority are;at best; Not the percentage; For example if election are held in Kericho or Bomet today - UDA candidate will win - but not by 90 percent; it will likely be even 50 percent; because there are other candidates; with other issues; for example each Ward will pick their home-boy
You need an opinion poll for that. Without an opinion poll; then you have find many indicators and try to guess.
For example to know Ruto is popular - see how nearly all Kieleweke MPs have all run back to Ruto - in Kiambu out of 12 mps - I think only two are left with Uhuru. And that is KIAMBU. Uhuru homeground. The same trend is repeated. And this is with Kibicho threatening and paying some of them not to defect.
YOU DO NOT KNOW POLITICS.
We need some kind of opinion polling - but for now - we will go with ancedotal evidence.
Problem with kenya opinion polls; they do not sample tribes; and that is where MOAS come in. But in place like Central where most places are 98 percent homegenous; if you sample one area; you will know how it's going.
If things stay as they are I see the cookie crumbling as it did in Kiambaa: Ruto solo 50 vs 50 everyone else.
If UDA vs Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans persist - things can go very bad for Ruto. Those youths did not decide to hate Uhuru but were incited by Kurias.
If BBI comes back - more problems for Ruto.
-
I depend on Njuri-njeke for Meru :) - but Embu - those are my inlaws. Muturi is going nowhere. He himself know it. He has already been told to fold camp and join Ruto. That is why he is reading Ruto message.
You need to understand that politics is not just driven by boardroom - the ground is everything - ASK MATIANGI :) - unless you reached Raila or Kalonzo or Ruto or maDVD kind of level. It not easy to get there.
In fact it only Raila who can shift Luos any direction - but rest have to explain. The first 'convincing' is to fellow leaders - Mps, governors - and name it. If you fail to get buy in - then you will struggle even more on the ground. This is Uhuru biggest problem in his games - he has failed to carry the leaders and the people. I believe it's deliberate strategy. He really doesnt want to fight Ruto.
Pundit's story about Merus-Embus being heavily pro-Ruto is backed by nothing solid. Wishes. There has not been a proper match there unlike West to indicate that Ruto is so popular. Unlike Kikuyu, there is no Uhuru to demonize there - Muturi is local boy backed most big Kiraitus.
Ruto weakness in MKE: no Uhuru punchbag. No Raila to demonize. No DPORK to offer with the apparent Kikuyu problems. Muturi will run circles around him.
Muturi party vs UDA. No Jubilee.
-
You make it sounds like Raila is blameless? No he is not. You need to understand why Raila has contributed to this hatred in Mt kenya. Of course some of it his inherited beef btw Jaramogi and Luos during Kenyatta era.
But let focus on Raila sins - and how he can 'repent'.
1) It starts in Langata const. In 1993-1998 when he won Langata. The first thing he did was to tell Luo slum dwellers not to pay rent to landlords. He called them slum structures owners. This I believe he has repeated severally. He also identifies himself as a socialist (communist) like his father.
Kikuyu fear that if Raila wins - Luos will refuse to pay rent. In fact every election - Kikuyus evict Luos or refuse to rent to Luos their properties.
Socialism/communism is no longer a problem - in fact worldwide it's back in vogue - but the genuine fear from Mt kenya that Raila will incite his supporters to refuse to pay for rent and other services is REAL.
2) The fear he will incite Land clashes against Kikuyu diaspora. This he has done in Coast, Maasai and RV. As late as 2017 - he was in Kajiado quoted saying watu warudi kwao. That flipped Gusii votes. Raila once he entered KANU - realized that Moi KANU (really old KADU coalition) - was Anti-Kikuyu platform - and their biggest beef was land grab of 60-70s. He has tried to feed that monster in coast, kamatusa and such areas..so they support him.
Raila even adopted Majimbo/Fedaralism - something he and Luo intellegnisa had opposed from 1950s - through 1990s. Once inside the KADU tent - he adopted Land grievance agenda of Mijikenda, Maasai and Kalenjin - and the Majimbo.
The land grievance -majimbo-devolution is Anti-Kikuyu agenda and you do not expect to be loved by GEMA and Non-GEMA - Ruto may break the jinx with his WIN-WIN philosophy.
3) The 2007 anti-kikuyu rhetoric that led to war. Here both him and Ruto are blamed.
4) Raila has improved on quarrelsome relationship with GEMA - this time he has really become Uhuru bia.tch. Previously it was just makelele with Kibaki in NARC and later in NARA.
Ruto has almost paid his penances - by supporting Uhuru for 10yrs, kikuyus also realize they need to make peace with RV - coz there are maybe a thousand of kikuyus in Kisumu - but a million in rv.
Most importantly Raila is very reckless and cannot stay on message - propaganda wise. Ruto has manage to clean up his act with Mt kenya because he is good in propaganda and can stay on message. Raila CANNOT.
That biggest hurdle he faces in Mt Kenya. Raila is his Greastest Enemy. You can struggle to sell Raila - only for him to say something stupid - and make all your effort zero. Like Mama Mboga ni TakaTaka. Or like he said in 2007 - hatutaki Madoadoa. Or in Kajiado recently - in 2017 - inciting Maasai on land.
I remember in 2007 - Ruto use to struggle to clean up Raila gaffes. In fact Raila should stick to written speech :) - and he may be able to get 20 percent of Mt kenya.
The moment he opens his mouth :) - he will likely say something stupid.
Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.
Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.
Long inshas for nothing. Ruto description fits all that and more current. Just look again. Ati Ruto has supported Uhuru ten years. So why is Uhuru against him? I just thought you said Ruto was the govt first Jubilee term. Ruto also keeps saying they were on track for Jubilee until handshake. Can you decide?
-
You can bury your head in the sand but GEMA are voting for Ruto;Not Raila. Those are facts. Ruto has successfully managed to warm his way into GEMA hearts; Raila has failed. He is hoping for a miracle from Uhuru in the last year :) - something Uhuru hasnt done.
Uhuru - Ruto animus I believe started when Uhuru realized using (misusing) Raila he could actually run the show alone - unlike 1st term where he had to co-run it - so he has kept pushing Ruto to the periphery of power - and Raila hasn't occupied that space - but he has been fed BBI bullshiet.
The tragedy awaiting Raila is huge. He will not only lose 2022, BBI will die, but he will be blamed for Jubilee mess :) while all he got is a PRADO :)
Long inshas for nothing. Ruto description fits all that and more current. Just look again. Ati Ruto has supported Uhuru ten years. So why is Uhuru against him? I just thought you said Ruto was the govt first Jubilee term. Ruto also keeps saying they were on track for Jubilee until handshake. Can you decide?
-
Pundit step back a little and think outside Ruto's ginene. You claimed Ruto became a genius to you when he called out Raila for being messed up by Kibaki at Sagana. How long was Sagana? A few hours maybe. Now Ruto has been messed up by Uhuru for five years and counting, so who should be the loser here?
You have also claimed Raila can't be voted by Gema because there is fear he will incite people into land clashes in RV. Do you listen to yourself sometimes? You're asking Gema to choose between someone who is likely to incite violence and somebody who has an ICC certificate in that business.
Then you claim someone has become Uhuru's biatch. Really?
-
You keep asking the same stuff I have answered several times.
I noticed Ruto political genius way back 2001. That is when overthrew Biwott from Moi kitchen cabinet. That is when he sold Young versus Old - and with Moi pushed a political neophyte to almost PORK - if not for Kibaki Tosha. Not 2008.
Ruto understand what POWER Means. He has been in power now twice. In Moi dying regime - btw 1999-to-2002- when he edged Biwott from Kitchen cabinet, became only Ass Minister to sit in Cabinet, before eventually being appointed for 3 months to be Home Affairs Minister. Ruto was in his 30s remember.
Ruto was also in POWER in Jubilee 1.0 - when drunkard was drinking. That was obvious to everyone. Raila has NEVER BEEN IN POWER - not even as PM.
Now 2008 - Sagana - Ruto having been in power under Moi - tried very much to help Raila - Ruto provided ODM financing and led the propaganda - which Raila kept messing up by foot in the mouth gaffes.
In Sagana - Ruto told Raila he needed to get REAL MINISTRIES - with REAL Power. This was the MINIMUM IRREDUCIBLE. Ruto drove that hard bargain until Kofi Anna gave up.
Raila negotiated directly with Kibaki and crushed in 2 hours - and came back with useless ministries - and worse did not give Ruto anything - Min of Agricutlure - for someone who had been running gov under Moi : and was defacto home affairs minister (while he was ass minister). Ruto must have felt CRUSHED by a 50 tonne truck.
For Ruto this was total betrayal - it was a demotion - it was going back to 1998 :) - and he couldnt progress under a fool like Raila.
I bet that night of Sagana - Ruto called Uhuru and the plan for 2013 began. Him and Raila were DONE in SAGANA - and I said as much - and Uhuru was going to be benefeciary.
Post 2008 - Kikuyu/Kalenjin tension was very high - both parties hated each other - people said oil and water could not mix - Ruto plotted for 2022 way back in 2013. This is what Raila is doing in 2021 :)
Uhuru and Mama Ngina had made it clear that 1) They will vote for Ruto in 2022 2) They cannot guarantee GEMA votes because of PEV. Ruto got his cheque from Mama Ngina and knew he had to work to win over GEMA.
From 2013 - Ruto knew the only way to win GEMA - was to collapse URP and TNA - into Jubilee - and create a BEHEEMOTH like KANU - and strongly couple with GEMA - plus many other things including attacking Raila daily :) :) - GEMA love that.
Ruto also knew collapsing URP - and creating Jubilee - would give Uhuru upperhand - it wont be a coalition - it wont be 50-50 - there is no coalition agreement - Ruto will move to VP and Uhuru will be PORK.
Ruto agreed - to take that gamble. In any case Uhuru could still go rogue because it was his final term - Ruto knew what is happening would likely happen.
Raila is a FOOL. That one has no strategy. His strategy is very short term. How do you run 5 times and LOSE
Why did Raila run in 1997 : :D :D - why not back Kibaki in 1997 - and do Tosha - and become PORK in 2007 :) :) . How were Luos suppose to help - if Jaramogi had failed? Then he cries RIGGING :) :) when everyone saw Moi beating him to pulp
Ruto has never run for PORK :) - and will win in his first run. From when Ruto went to Japan with Moi as UON students - Ruto has METICOUSLY plan his way to his ambition of become PORK. He has progressively work his way, he has acquired all that is needed, the money, the experiences, the propaganda, the network. He has never rushed. His only mistake was ODM in 2008 - and 2002 of course - Raila undid his plan - to run kenya at 30s :. Ruto knew Uhuru kenyatta ni mlevi...Gideon moi ni fala...so he will be the ENGINE of Gov under new KANU.
Pundit step back a little and think outside Ruto's ginene. You claimed Ruto became a genius to you when he called out Raila for being messed up by Kibaki at Sagana. How long was Sagana? A few hours maybe. Now Ruto has been messed up by Uhuru for five years and counting, so who should be the loser here?
You have also claimed Raila can't be voted by Gema because there is fear he will incite people into land clashes in RV. Do you listen to yourself sometimes? You're asking Gema to choose between someone who is likely to incite violence and somebody who has an ICC certificate in that business.
Then you claim someone has become Uhuru's biatch. Really?