Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: vooke on April 08, 2019, 12:46:39 PM
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Once peaceful protests morph into armed vigilantes backed by the men with guns (cops and army) ,please step down
https://www.facebook.com/418535764899859/posts/2208618922558192/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/world/africa/sudan-protests-al-bashir.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur
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He should have done so months ago and installed a puppet who would shield him from the ICC. Now his successor might want him by all means out of the way by handing him over to the Hague. Another alternative is flle to Nairobi and take refugee by the other ICC suspects.
Once peaceful protests morph into armed vigilantes backed by the men with guns (cops and army) ,please step down
https://www.facebook.com/418535764899859/posts/2208618922558192/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/world/africa/sudan-protests-al-bashir.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur
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If they are exchanging fire, it means bloodbath. Successful coups are normally bloodless. The soldiers agree, pick up the phone and tell the dictator it's time to go.
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I hope Darfur use the opportunity to secede. Sudan still too big to be managed. Next is DRC and Nigeria.
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If they are exchanging fire, it means bloodbath. Successful coups are normally bloodless. The soldiers agree, pick up the phone and tell the dictator it's time to go.
This one is complicated by the Janjaweed Mungiki. Not likely to be bloodless, and it may be quite protracted
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Good riddance. Really wish we could have an African Spring - Bashir, Omar Bango, Paul Biya and such Mugabes need to go. I am happy to see the old cripple - Gen Bouteflika of Algeria - about to bug off. These are serious leeches. Kagame and such performers should remain until they run out of steam - which i hope they are patriotic and wise enough to read the signs - and not wait for uprising.
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Museveni eventually will be kicked out too.
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Museveni eventually will be kicked out too.
Not soon with his son, nephews and sundry running the army. Always wonder why you lump him with Kagame and Meles? Uganda is still a backwater and has not progressed under M7 - am I wrong?
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Museveni eventually will be kicked out too.
Not soon with his son, nephews and sundry running the army. Always wonder why you lump him with Kagame and Meles? Uganda is still a backwater and has not progressed under M7 - am I wrong?
Uganda progressed in the early years of Museveni. When there was no other direction to go even if one tried. I agree the man is as entrenched as anybody ever has been in East Africa. He is no Mobutu, because his state is a functioning state, as far as actively staying in power goes.
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You think all the rest who fell didn't have close relatives running everything. Once people are tired, they are tired. No amount of bullets will save you. Museveni is increasingly becoming unpopular has Uganda economy nose-dive. Oil production may change things - but certainly Museveni in 90s and 20s was the VERY GOOD LEADER.
Not soon with his son, nephews and sundry running the army. Always wonder why you lump him with Kagame and Meles? Uganda is still a backwater and has not progressed under M7 - am I wrong?
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If they are exchanging fire, it means bloodbath. Successful coups are normally bloodless. The soldiers agree, pick up the phone and tell the dictator it's time to go.
This one is complicated by the Janjaweed Mungiki. Not likely to be bloodless, and it may be quite protracted
I hope Darfur use the opportunity to secede. Sudan still too big to be managed. Next is DRC and Nigeria.
I tend to think DRC should break up too. Swahili East and Lingala West. Perhaps a third SADC leaning branch in Katanga. As currently constituted, it's designed to fail, and be a perpetual victim of exploitation by outside powers.
Naija, also should. But the Northerners know they would be totally screwed if that happened. It would never happen peacefully. Then the South would probably break up East and West, as Igbos try to rekindle Biafra.
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Museveni did oversee the recovery from war but he also executed some great ideas - like universal free primary - in 90s - built school infrastructure - and generally Uganda economy grew by around 7% for like a generation - it's only around this last decade - that growth has flattered.
Uganda progressed in the early years of Museveni. When there was no other direction to go even if one tried. I agree the man is as entrenched as anybody ever has been in East Africa. He is no Mobutu, because his state is a functioning state, as far as actively staying in power goes.
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Yes big countries without capacity have no option except break up. Ethiopia already broke up to Eritrea. It still need to break up into 4 or 5 states- unless it build capacity and entrech real federalism. Sudan was a huge country - and still is - I think Darfur will eventually break up. DRC - will eventually break up - possibly along the old lines - State of Katanga, Kinshasa and Kisangani- the UN, Uganda, and Rwandese - are propping the country - if rebels were left on their own - they'd split the country - Somali type. Nigeria is gone - Biafra - Lagos(Yorubaland) - and Islamic north - will eventually split.
Only Tanzania seem to have succeeded in creating a semblance of nation. Kenya is lucky it made of some many small tribes - none can really make a viable state.
I tend to think DRC should break up too. Swahili East and Lingala West. Perhaps a third SADC leaning branch in Katanga. As currently constituted, it's designed to fail, and be a perpetual victim of exploitation by outside powers.
Naija, also should. But the Northerners know they would be totally screwed if that happened. It would never happen peacefully. Then the South would probably break up East and West, as Igbos try to rekindle Biafra.
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Yes big countries without capacity have no option except break up. Ethiopia already broke up to Eritrea. It still need to break up into 4 or 5 states- unless it build capacity and entrech real federalism. Sudan was a huge country - and still is - I think Darfur will eventually break up. DRC - will eventually break up - possibly along the old lines - State of Katanga, Kinshasa and Kisangani- the UN, Uganda, and Rwandese - are propping the country - if rebels were left on their own - they'd split the country - Somali type. Nigeria is gone - Biafra - Lagos(Yorubaland) - and Islamic north - will eventually split.
Only Tanzania seem to have succeeded in creating a semblance of nation. Kenya is lucky it made of some many small tribes - none can really make a viable state.
I tend to think DRC should break up too. Swahili East and Lingala West. Perhaps a third SADC leaning branch in Katanga. As currently constituted, it's designed to fail, and be a perpetual victim of exploitation by outside powers.
Naija, also should. But the Northerners know they would be totally screwed if that happened. It would never happen peacefully. Then the South would probably break up East and West, as Igbos try to rekindle Biafra.
Indeed these countries have major ethnic groups. It's easy to forget just how small Kenya's tribes are. Rwandans and Burundians are really one tribe with large representations in Eastern DRC. I believe the Hutu/Tutsi fight will continue forever like Arab/Israeli conflict. The best hope seems to be to make sure it never gets past a low level conflict. Too much bad blood already established.
Naija's real problem when it comes to breaking up is the Northerners. Yorubas would probably happily let the East go. The Northerners know if the breakup happens, they become a version of Niger without oil.
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Yes big countries without capacity have no option except break up. Ethiopia already broke up to Eritrea. It still need to break up into 4 or 5 states- unless it build capacity and entrech real federalism. Sudan was a huge country - and still is - I think Darfur will eventually break up. DRC - will eventually break up - possibly along the old lines - State of Katanga, Kinshasa and Kisangani- the UN, Uganda, and Rwandese - are propping the country - if rebels were left on their own - they'd split the country - Somali type. Nigeria is gone - Biafra - Lagos(Yorubaland) - and Islamic north - will eventually split.
Only Tanzania seem to have succeeded in creating a semblance of nation. Kenya is lucky it made of some many small tribes - none can really make a viable state.
Yup - this is quite some structural advantage Kenya has - symbiotic sub-natural peace - the other being geopolitical. The best i think is near-monolithic state like China or Japan and the Koreas. Monocultural states basically "skip" the nation-building stage - which is a big deal considering it is the key cause of failed or stalled states esp in Sub Sahara. Downside we can see the xenophobic Japs now staring at the DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF - which is a new animal economists are struggling to grasp. They rather have robot waiters than immigrants.
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Yup - this is quite some structural advantage Kenya has - symbiotic sub-natural peace - the other being geopolitical. The best i think is near-monolithic state like China or Japan and the Koreas. Monocultural states basically "skip" the nation-building stage
Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).
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Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).
Yuh but the 80+% Han Chinese helps with the stability. It's why the Party survives with hardly notable incidents of resistance. Imagine if the immolational Tibetans & Uygurs were geostatistically significant. They had their civil war 40s - leading to the Taiwan situation. That's the big divide.
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Yes Hutus and Tutsi are big tribe - together with Somalis - Oromos - Amharas - Igbos - Yorubas - Hausa - Berbers - Zulus. Kenya big tribes are smaller - in big scale of things.
Northern Nigeria has been trying to find oil in Lake Chad basin - and once they succeed - they will split. They are already sharia-run states - and Islamic influence is way too much now - for a Nigeria nation to emerge. With Biafra also splitting - the Yorubas and others - will be left with Nigeria - possibly - Northern Nigeria - became the Islamic Republic of Nigeria - Biafara becomes a reality - and Yorubas & others remain with Nigeria.
Indeed these countries have major ethnic groups. It's easy to forget just how small Kenya's tribes are. Rwandans and Burundians are really one tribe with large representations in Eastern DRC. I believe the Hutu/Tutsi fight will continue forever like Arab/Israeli conflict. The best hope seems to be to make sure it never gets past a low level conflict. Too much bad blood already established.
Naija's real problem when it comes to breaking up is the Northerners. Yorubas would probably happily let the East go. The Northerners know if the breakup happens, they become a version of Niger without oil.
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Yes nation-building takes many centuries. All we have in Africa are mostly states. The chinese, the brits, the germans, the french, the koreans, the japanase - took lots of centuries to smooth out tribal, sub-tribal, language and cultural difference. Africa will become nations earliest maybe in 500yrs.....by that time...everyone in Kenya will be speaking Sheng...and our tribal languages will be extinct....and also everyone will be in urban areas. Folks would have inter-married so much it will be impossible to tell tribes...
Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).
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Sudan's statue of liberty
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The end is here
Sudan’s state news media said Thursday that the military would make an important announcement. The statement comes as protests against the rule of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the country’s authoritarian leader, have engulfed the nation.
“The Sudanese army will issue an important statement soon. Wait for it,” a television anchor said, according to Agence France-Presse, a newswire.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/11/world/africa/sudan-omar-hassan-al-bashir.html
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Sudan president Omar al-Bashir steps down after 30 years in power
https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2019/04/sudan-president-omar-al-bashir-steps-down-after-30-years-in-power/
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The fellow old geezers, friends to Bashir, who have been sitting in posh hotels watching the youths demonstrate will subvert it and take it Egypt way. The youths are no wiser from lessons learnt in all these Arab Springs - just usual excitement and then back to same shit.
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Will he end in ICC? He need to negotiate and run to Philippines - where Duertere is also wanted.
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Muslims are strategic they placed women infront to counter the deadly use of force. Anyway Kenya will never have revolution due to tribalism. The only people who can cause a revolution in kenya are luos but they cannot win because they are very ideologist
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In Kenya, the venting space is there to talk of a revolution . Even with disputed elections people can still dance in the streets and swear in a phoney people's president. Popular uprising/revolutionary forces can't forment in 5 years which is where the presidential term limits are. It can only erupt in case of proposals by Raila and retards on 7 year term or the current naive dreams by Uhuru irrelevant gang who can see power slipping out of their hands - maybe forever!!
The geezers going down have been at it for 30+ years - that is a whole generation.
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When economy tanks - people revolt - easily. Kenya economy has been booming. We had our revolutionary moment in 2002 and Moi was smart to read it correctly - and go home. By 2002 - with the economy under recession (-1.7%) - people had NOTHING to lose. They were basically tired - would have violently kicked out Moi if need be.
Sudan economy has tanked - and people have nothing to lose - they cannot afford to buy bread - Bashir or no Bashir.
In 2022 - depending on how handshake unfolds - we may have a protest vote - akin to 2013 - when kenyans told west and their poodles to go f.off and elected ICC indicted persons.
I think we should not confuse protest vote - with a revolution like NARC win - where even Kalenjin joined in and kicked moi's butt.
In Kenya, the venting space is there to talk of a revolution . Even with disputed elections people can still dance in the streets and swear in a phoney people's president. Popular uprising/revolutionary forces can't forment in 5 years which is where the presidential term limits are. It can only erupt in case of proposals by Raila and retards on 7 year term or the current naive dreams by Uhuru irrelevant gang who can see power slipping out of their hands - maybe forever!!
The geezers going down have been at it for 30+ years - that is a whole generation.
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Muslims are strategic they placed women infront to counter the deadly use of force. Anyway Kenya will never have revolution due to tribalism. The only people who can cause a revolution in kenya are luos but they cannot win because they are very ideologist
Agreed. The tribal fault-lines are stronger than the socio-economic ones.
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In Kenya, the venting space is there to talk of a revolution . Even with disputed elections people can still dance in the streets and swear in a phoney people's president. Popular uprising/revolutionary forces can't forment in 5 years which is where the presidential term limits are. It can only erupt in case of proposals by Raila and retards on 7 year term or the current naive dreams by Uhuru irrelevant gang who can see power slipping out of their hands - maybe forever!!
The geezers going down have been at it for 30+ years - that is a whole generation.
That's an insight I hadn't considered. Another term or two of Moi might have seen that happen with an opposition that would have learned the futility of not uniting behind one person.
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That's right, tribaliy divides us, but Moi's misrule made Kenyans rise above tribalism. I think even with tribalism this grand corruption that seldom trickles to raia may push us
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Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).
Yuh but the 80+% Han Chinese helps with the stability. It's why the Party survives with hardly notable incidents of resistance. Imagine if the immolational Tibetans & Uygurs were geostatistically significant. They had their civil war 40s - leading to the Taiwan situation. That's the big divide.
Well sure, but my point was, the Han were not originally a single people. It is an identity that was forged over eons of integration in different ways. Before the bazungu ever set foot in that part of the world, there was already a China and a Chinese identity. Not like our Kenya and neighbours: bazungu experiments.
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Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).
Yuh but the 80+% Han Chinese helps with the stability. It's why the Party survives with hardly notable incidents of resistance. Imagine if the immolational Tibetans & Uygurs were geostatistically significant. They had their civil war 40s - leading to the Taiwan situation. That's the big divide.
Well sure, but my point was, the Han were not originally a single people. It is an identity that was forged over eons of integration in different ways. Before the bazungu ever set foot in that part of the world, there was already a China and a Chinese identity. Not like our Kenya and neighbours: bazungu experiments.
China is an interesting case. I think it's important when we refer to Han to realize that their idea of an ethnic group is very different from what we mean in Kenya and East Africa in general.
The Han include people who speak Mandarin, Cantonese, etc as their native languages. A fairer comparison would be to something like Bantu peoples(Maybe even the whole Niger-Congo group). I have noticed the same thing with Igbos and Yorubas in Nigeria - they are huge because they are in fact language groups analogous to Bantus but restricted in a tiny area.
The important thing is they(Chinese) have been able to develop a consciousness of being the same people long before bazungu did it for them.
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I counted at least 200 bundles of the $100 notes. I estimate each to have 1000 notes so that's a clean $20M. This excludes the ones in the bag
https://www.facebook.com/100000231138276/posts/2886939277990415/?sfnsn=mo
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I counted at least 200 bundles of the $100 notes. I estimate each to have 1000 notes so that's a clean $20M. This excludes the ones in the bag
https://www.facebook.com/100000231138276/posts/2886939277990415/?sfnsn=mo
Waiguru-style. You see cash, you take it.
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The protestors are pushing for more. They want ‘elements of Bashir’ gone.
I hope the army are dumb spooked enough to play along
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48006015