Bashir is goin down

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Once peaceful protests morph into armed vigilantes backed by the men with guns (cops and army) ,please step down


https://www.facebook.com/418535764899859/posts/2208618922558192/


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/world/africa/sudan-protests-al-bashir.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

[Kadudu]

He should have done so months ago and installed a puppet who would shield him from the ICC. Now his successor might want him by all means out of the way by handing him over to the Hague. Another alternative is flle to Nairobi and take refugee by the other ICC suspects.

Once peaceful protests morph into armed vigilantes backed by the men with guns (cops and army) ,please step down


https://www.facebook.com/418535764899859/posts/2208618922558192/


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/world/africa/sudan-protests-al-bashir.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If they are exchanging fire, it means bloodbath.  Successful coups are normally bloodless.  The soldiers agree, pick up the phone and tell the dictator it's time to go.

[RV Pundit]

I hope Darfur use the opportunity to secede. Sudan still too big to be managed. Next is DRC and Nigeria.

[vooke]

If they are exchanging fire, it means bloodbath.  Successful coups are normally bloodless.  The soldiers agree, pick up the phone and tell the dictator it's time to go.

This one is complicated by the Janjaweed Mungiki. Not likely to be bloodless, and it may be quite protracted

[Nefertiti]

Good riddance. Really wish we could have an African Spring - Bashir, Omar Bango, Paul Biya and such Mugabes need to go. I am happy to see the old cripple - Gen Bouteflika of Algeria - about to bug off. These are serious leeches. Kagame and such performers should remain until they run out of steam - which i hope they are patriotic and wise enough to read the signs - and not wait for uprising.

[RV Pundit]

Museveni eventually will be kicked out too.

[Nefertiti]

Museveni eventually will be kicked out too.

Not soon with his son, nephews and sundry running the army. Always wonder why you lump him with Kagame and Meles? Uganda is still a backwater and has not progressed under M7 - am I wrong?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Museveni eventually will be kicked out too.

Not soon with his son, nephews and sundry running the army. Always wonder why you lump him with Kagame and Meles? Uganda is still a backwater and has not progressed under M7 - am I wrong?

Uganda progressed in the early years of Museveni.  When there was no other direction to go even if one tried.  I agree the man is as entrenched as anybody ever has been in East Africa.  He is no Mobutu, because his state is a functioning state, as far as actively staying in power goes.

[RV Pundit]

You think all the rest who fell didn't have close relatives running everything. Once people are tired, they are tired. No amount of bullets will save you. Museveni is increasingly becoming unpopular has Uganda economy nose-dive. Oil production may change things - but certainly Museveni in 90s and 20s was the VERY GOOD LEADER.

Not soon with his son, nephews and sundry running the army. Always wonder why you lump him with Kagame and Meles? Uganda is still a backwater and has not progressed under M7 - am I wrong?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If they are exchanging fire, it means bloodbath.  Successful coups are normally bloodless.  The soldiers agree, pick up the phone and tell the dictator it's time to go.

This one is complicated by the Janjaweed Mungiki. Not likely to be bloodless, and it may be quite protracted

I hope Darfur use the opportunity to secede. Sudan still too big to be managed. Next is DRC and Nigeria.

I tend to think DRC should break up too.  Swahili East and Lingala West.  Perhaps a third SADC leaning branch in Katanga.  As currently constituted, it's designed to fail, and be a perpetual victim of exploitation by outside powers.

Naija, also should.  But the Northerners know they would be totally screwed if that happened.  It would never happen peacefully.  Then the South would probably break up East and West, as Igbos try to rekindle Biafra.

[RV Pundit]

Museveni did oversee the recovery from war but he also executed some great ideas - like universal free primary - in 90s - built school infrastructure - and generally Uganda economy grew by around 7% for like a generation - it's only around this last decade - that growth has flattered.

Uganda progressed in the early years of Museveni.  When there was no other direction to go even if one tried.  I agree the man is as entrenched as anybody ever has been in East Africa.  He is no Mobutu, because his state is a functioning state, as far as actively staying in power goes.

[RV Pundit]

Yes big countries without capacity have no option except break up. Ethiopia already broke up to Eritrea. It still need to break up into 4 or 5 states- unless it build capacity and entrech real federalism. Sudan was a huge country - and still is - I think Darfur will eventually break up. DRC - will eventually break up - possibly along the old lines - State of Katanga, Kinshasa and Kisangani- the UN, Uganda, and Rwandese - are propping the country - if rebels were left on their own - they'd split the country - Somali type. Nigeria is gone - Biafra - Lagos(Yorubaland) - and Islamic north - will eventually split.

Only Tanzania seem to have succeeded in creating a semblance of nation. Kenya is lucky it made of some many small tribes - none can really make a viable state.

I tend to think DRC should break up too.  Swahili East and Lingala West.  Perhaps a third SADC leaning branch in Katanga.  As currently constituted, it's designed to fail, and be a perpetual victim of exploitation by outside powers.

Naija, also should.  But the Northerners know they would be totally screwed if that happened.  It would never happen peacefully.  Then the South would probably break up East and West, as Igbos try to rekindle Biafra.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Yes big countries without capacity have no option except break up. Ethiopia already broke up to Eritrea. It still need to break up into 4 or 5 states- unless it build capacity and entrech real federalism. Sudan was a huge country - and still is - I think Darfur will eventually break up. DRC - will eventually break up - possibly along the old lines - State of Katanga, Kinshasa and Kisangani- the UN, Uganda, and Rwandese - are propping the country - if rebels were left on their own - they'd split the country - Somali type. Nigeria is gone - Biafra - Lagos(Yorubaland) - and Islamic north - will eventually split.

Only Tanzania seem to have succeeded in creating a semblance of nation. Kenya is lucky it made of some many small tribes - none can really make a viable state.

I tend to think DRC should break up too.  Swahili East and Lingala West.  Perhaps a third SADC leaning branch in Katanga.  As currently constituted, it's designed to fail, and be a perpetual victim of exploitation by outside powers.

Naija, also should.  But the Northerners know they would be totally screwed if that happened.  It would never happen peacefully.  Then the South would probably break up East and West, as Igbos try to rekindle Biafra.

Indeed these countries have major ethnic groups.  It's easy to forget just how small Kenya's tribes are.  Rwandans and Burundians are really one tribe with large representations in Eastern DRC.  I believe the Hutu/Tutsi fight will continue forever like Arab/Israeli conflict.  The best hope seems to be to make sure it never gets past a low level conflict.  Too much bad blood already established.

Naija's real problem when it comes to breaking up is the Northerners.  Yorubas would probably happily let the East go.  The Northerners know if the breakup happens, they become a version of Niger without oil.

[Nefertiti]

Yes big countries without capacity have no option except break up. Ethiopia already broke up to Eritrea. It still need to break up into 4 or 5 states- unless it build capacity and entrech real federalism. Sudan was a huge country - and still is - I think Darfur will eventually break up. DRC - will eventually break up - possibly along the old lines - State of Katanga, Kinshasa and Kisangani- the UN, Uganda, and Rwandese - are propping the country - if rebels were left on their own - they'd split the country - Somali type. Nigeria is gone - Biafra - Lagos(Yorubaland) - and Islamic north - will eventually split.

Only Tanzania seem to have succeeded in creating a semblance of nation. Kenya is lucky it made of some many small tribes - none can really make a viable state.

Yup - this is quite some structural advantage Kenya has - symbiotic sub-natural peace - the other being geopolitical. The best i think is near-monolithic state like China or Japan and the Koreas. Monocultural states basically "skip" the nation-building stage - which is a big deal considering it is the key cause of failed or stalled states esp in Sub Sahara. Downside we can see the xenophobic Japs now staring at the DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF - which is a new animal economists are struggling to grasp. They rather have robot waiters than immigrants.

[Dear Mami]

Yup - this is quite some structural advantage Kenya has - symbiotic sub-natural peace - the other being geopolitical. The best i think is near-monolithic state like China or Japan and the Koreas. Monocultural states basically "skip" the nation-building stage

Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).

[Nefertiti]

Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).

Yuh but the 80+% Han Chinese helps with the stability. It's why the Party survives with hardly notable incidents of resistance. Imagine if the immolational Tibetans & Uygurs were geostatistically significant. They had their civil war 40s - leading to the Taiwan situation. That's the big divide.

[RV Pundit]

Yes Hutus and Tutsi are big tribe - together with Somalis - Oromos - Amharas - Igbos - Yorubas - Hausa - Berbers - Zulus. Kenya big tribes are smaller - in big scale of things.

Northern Nigeria has been trying to find oil in Lake Chad basin - and once they succeed - they will split. They are already sharia-run states - and Islamic influence is way too much now - for a Nigeria nation to emerge. With Biafra also splitting - the Yorubas and others - will be left with Nigeria - possibly - Northern Nigeria - became the Islamic Republic of Nigeria - Biafara becomes a reality - and Yorubas & others remain with Nigeria.

Indeed these countries have major ethnic groups.  It's easy to forget just how small Kenya's tribes are.  Rwandans and Burundians are really one tribe with large representations in Eastern DRC.  I believe the Hutu/Tutsi fight will continue forever like Arab/Israeli conflict.  The best hope seems to be to make sure it never gets past a low level conflict.  Too much bad blood already established.

Naija's real problem when it comes to breaking up is the Northerners.  Yorubas would probably happily let the East go.  The Northerners know if the breakup happens, they become a version of Niger without oil.

[RV Pundit]

Yes nation-building takes many centuries. All we have in Africa are mostly states. The chinese, the brits, the germans, the french, the koreans, the japanase - took lots of centuries to smooth out tribal, sub-tribal, language and cultural difference. Africa will become nations earliest maybe in 500yrs.....by that time...everyone in Kenya will be speaking Sheng...and our tribal languages will be extinct....and also everyone will be in urban areas. Folks would have inter-married so much it will be impossible to tell tribes...

Robina, this is a big misconception about the Chinese. We also have to bear in mind that China is thousands of years old. They've been nation-building (or rather, 'empire-building') for a long time. China is nothing like Kenya or any of the bazungu creations of the last century or so (at least in Africa).

[vooke]

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