Mobutu's wobbling campaign and runningmate conundrum

[Njuri Ncheke]

He doesn't even have a party and you dream of him becoming president,Mobutu will maximize at 18%.His hopes of inheriting Uhurus backyard votes has fallen flat.that was his game plan.kalenjins are just 1.6 registered voters enough to make him a distant third.

I presume you have shifted all the GEMA votes to baba?

[Nowayhaha]

He doesn't even have a party and you dream of him becoming president,Mobutu will maximize at 18%.His hopes of inheriting Uhurus backyard votes has fallen flat.that was his game plan.kalenjins are just 1.6 registered voters enough to make him a distant third.

Do you people even believe in what you write ?

[Pajero]

Gema votes will go to PK,our voting has always been tribal and it will not change ,we are a tribal nation and no amount of theories will change that.All the big 5 will vote their man.Kikuyus have never voted an outsider,this is a fact,well documented.Ruto is wasting his time

[RV Pundit]

Pajero, what is Raila gameplan after splitting jubilee and killing NASA,reverting back to ndp of 97.Or you in usual polemic like you told us kikuyu and kalenjin are oil and water pre 2013...now ten years later..its kikuyu will never vote an outsider

[Nefertiti]

Yes Mdvd has no chance - but he only distances himself from Ruto not Raila. Savula actually says they are working with Uhuru. How does that look for say run-off endorsements? If it Raila-PK vs Ruto-MK .. in run-off Mdvds would be forced to choose.

MaDVD is just playing hard to get. He knows he is going nowhere. Savula is just bullying him. The strategy for 2020 - for players like mudavadi - is either pre or post coalition. He has not chance. Ruto has a shot at PORK.  Ruto has never stood for PORK - while MaDVD has - but he had no shot. Only take your chance when you have a shot. Otherwise curve balls is desperation.

[Nefertiti]

Your hope is Uhuru betraying Raila. Possible but unlikely. It much more unlikely for Uhuru to back Ruto.

My prediction is Raila-PK as Uhuru stooge vs Ruto-MK. They split GEMA and so non-GEMA dog-fight come down to influencers in big tribes. Raila BBI Manifesto will promise to make Mdvds PM or DPM in 100 days Ruto atalia.

The most likely scenario for 2022 is Ruto, Raila (may not run if GEMA abandon him) and Gema candidate.
I predict Ruto will come top but short of 50%
We will have interesting and for the first time - a second re-run.
At this point - it will be deal making - Ruto will probably hit 35-40% at first round. Ruto will probably carry  whole RV including kikuyu diaspora - that is good 25% head start.
GEMA elite (Deep state) candidate with Matiangi deputizing (they will try to get GUSII). Many in GEMA will refuse to board such a system candidate.
The oldman Raila - after being kicked out as candidate for the Brige to Nowhere party - will either run as ODM candidate with Joho or Oparanya - or give up - or will back Ruto.

And then we will have 10 candidates sharing 30% - probably led by either Raila or Uhuru stooge(may score 15-20%).

Now who decide the winner - in 2nd round - it will basically be NON GEMA versus GEMA. Kenyans will have a choice btw another kikuyu candidate going for 10yrs - and Ruto.

And so Ruto wins. GEMA fears a re-run because non_GEMA  will easily gang up - which is why Uhuru had to win in first round.

Ruto only lose if Raila was to get Gema BACKING.
We know GEMA would prefer Ruto than Raila anyday.

So the stars are perfectly aligned for Ruto.

It's just going to be longer path to victory without Uhuru backing.

If Uhuru changes his mind and cut a deal with Ruto.

Ruto wins in first round by 60%.

[RV Pundit]

Your premise that GEMA will back Raila has no basis. Start to imagine a Plan B. GEMA elite will not back Raila. He is just a hard sell.  If they don't reconcile with Ruto who is already sold to GEMA - they will either 1) Get their own GEMA stooge and play gema nationalism 2) Get a pliable non-GEMA stooge like Matiangi - and back him up. The problem they will face huge rebellion from GEMA laity. So we are going to witness a bloodbath like MauMau btw homeguards and the thurakus.

Now does Raila has Plan B. Nobody knows. He has killed NASA. He has very little leverage now - which is why he is jumping with two feet from the frying pan to the fire.

His Plan B is to go back to ODM and run with Oparanya or Joho. Both who are minorities in their respective region. Joho is kaput because Mijikenda have had enough with ODM. Oparanya little sub tribe - won't get any hearing from Bukusu-Maragoli-even Wanga.

For Raila we are looking at NDP 1997 - 10% - as his final run for PORK.

Your hope is Uhuru betraying Raila. Possible but unlikely. It much more unlikely for Uhuru to back Ruto.

My prediction is Raila-PK as Uhuru stooge vs Ruto-MK. They split GEMA and so non-GEMA dog-fight come down to influencers in big tribes. Raila BBI Manifesto will promise to make Mdvds PM or DPM in 100 days Ruto atalia.

[Pajero]

Gema will not back Raila,neither will they back mobutu.now in that scenario,who benefits???About Railas game plan,simple,split jubilee into two,Jubilee Kikuyu and Jubilee nandi,back to TNA ,URP settings.

[RV Pundit]

And NASA is split already into 4 - NASA madvda, Weta, Kalonzo and Raila.

Gema will not back Raila,neither will they back mobutu.now in that scenario,who benefits???About Railas game plan,simple,split jubilee into two,Jubilee Kikuyu and Jubilee nandi,back to TNA ,URP settings.

[Nowayhaha]

A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.

One thing which is coming out clear from Raila die hards is that they know a united Mt Kenya will be a problem for Raila.
One side wants the votes to split .
Another side wants Mt Kenya to support Raila through a Mt Kenya or  Uhuru stooge
Another side wants voter empathy in Mt Kenya.

The truth is  Mt Kenya is just anti Raila , nothing else  and as long as he is in the ballot , they will galvanize and make sure he is defeated through Ruto
The only way Raila can achieve the above three is simply by giving up his ambitions and supporting another candidate .
However from his calculations  he thinks cobbling up a team like Nark summit , Pentagon by legalizing it through BBI will give him a clear chance against Ruto. One thing he forgets the same formulae will be used by Ruto. Kamabas and Luhyas gave Raila around 3 Million votes ,If BBI goes through though highly unlikely  those are good enough numbers  to bring Kalonzo and Mudavadi /Wetangula to his side.

[Pajero]

Jubilee is already split,unless you are soo dumb to see,Mobutu is shopping for a party yet you still think gema are with Mobutu,you must be mad to imagine gema will leave their jubilee and follow Mobutu to urp Nandi asili,you need to check your head recalibrated.

[RV Pundit]

It a fallacy that GEMA will just blindly vote any gema.
The candidate has to be credible and has to have a winning formulae.
Uhuru won when he convinced Ruto to back him - GEMA could see a winning credible candidate.

Now GEMA elite once they ditch your man Raila - will present a dead on arrival candidature - against political juggernauts of Ruto and - the dying Raila.

Outside Matiangi (Gusii) - I don't see any other tribe willing to deputize GEMA - not maDVD - not Kalonzo - that will be 10 more yrs as lackey- and if then - it would not even make their candidate cross 30%

Now add a scorned Raila - who will have to be shafted for PK-Matiangi or such system experiment to go ahead.

Gema will have to think about DPORK that is assured in 50-50 deal with Ruto to complete Jubilee dream - and their own PORK that is wild goose chase plus could send them back to 2007.

Remember to win - you need 50% plus one. So you need a candidate who is ready for prime time.

You can no longer just fish a rabbit out of a hole and declare them your candidate - the constitution requires that candidate to enjoy widespread support.

Jubilee is already split,unless you are soo dumb to see,Mobutu is shopping for a party yet you still think gema are with Mobutu,you must be mad to imagine gema will leave their jubilee and follow Mobutu to urp Nandi asili,you need to check your head recalibrated.

[Pajero]

It's also a fallacy that gema nation cannot front one of their own or cobble a coalition with other players apart from mobutu.you must be high on farmented mursik.now listen,gema will always be on top in any political arrangement courtesy of their tyranny of numbers.Its the small rivers that join big rivers,that's the political reality whether you like or hate it.Now how do you convince a kikuyu whose voting population is thrice that of kalenjin to play second fiddle to kalenjin,please sober up.gema have options beyond Mobutu,give us a break,start sharpening your arrows if that is what will make Mobutu president.
So according to you,it's only Mobutu who can cobble a winning formulae,chieth.How do you even think about winning yet you are party less,radarless,clueless,careless.
What makes you think luos or luhyas or even kambas cannot support another kikuyu for presidency same way you supported Uhuru or you think it's only kalenjins who have political patents and rights to support kikuyus,shut up.

[Pajero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cjamehk/status/1297590018920394756/photo/1

[Nowayhaha]

Gema votes will go to PK,our voting has always been tribal and it will not change ,we are a tribal nation and no amount of theories will change that.All the big 5 will vote their man.Kikuyus have never voted an outsider,this is a fact,well documented.Ruto is wasting his time

Do you know PK is not even regarded as a GEMA , Secondly apart from Mt Kenya East , the west have always voted against a candidate not for a candidate . In the 90S it was MOI in 2000s it was Raila . Its not about to change anytime soon until Raila hangs his boots

[Nowayhaha]

Yes Mdvd has no chance - but he only distances himself from Ruto not Raila. Savula actually says they are working with Uhuru. How does that look for say run-off endorsements? If it Raila-PK vs Ruto-MK .. in run-off Mdvds would be forced to choose.

MaDVD is just playing hard to get. He knows he is going nowhere. Savula is just bullying him. The strategy for 2020 - for players like mudavadi - is either pre or post coalition. He has not chance. Ruto has a shot at PORK.  Ruto has never stood for PORK - while MaDVD has - but he had no shot. Only take your chance when you have a shot. Otherwise curve balls is desperation.

Kalonzo and Mudavadi cannot afford to be in opposition for a 3rd time running if they decide that their supporters especially the ones seeking elective posts will  decamp to the side with prospects of winning . Thats the reason you see Muluka et all already resigning from ANC .
If you talk about amending party constitution so that he cannot be a running mate , that can always be revised and in most cases done during the period of coalition building and endorsing coalition agreement .

[Nowayhaha]

Jubilee is already split,unless you are soo dumb to see,Mobutu is shopping for a party yet you still think gema are with Mobutu,you must be mad to imagine gema will leave their jubilee and follow Mobutu to urp Nandi asili,you need to check your head recalibrated.

In Kenyan politics a party is a vehicle used to ride to power , TNA & URP were formed just months prior to elections heck , lets go back to 2002 , NARC was formed a few moths to GE , in 2007 PNU and ODM wer formed just months to GE , IN 2013 same can be said of TNA and URP and 2017 of Jubilee . The common denominator is that the winning party has always been new and formed months prior to elections .If I was a historian my learning point is for Ruto chances to be enhanced in 2022  he might indeed need to form a new party - This has its own advantages ,
Where is Narc where is PNU where is ODM to the former selves ? you answer is a good as mine

[Nowayhaha]

It's also a fallacy that gema nation cannot front one of their own or cobble a coalition with other players apart from mobutu.you must be high on farmented mursik.now listen,gema will always be on top in any political arrangement courtesy of their tyranny of numbers.Its the small rivers that join big rivers,that's the political reality whether you like or hate it.Now how do you convince a kikuyu whose voting population is thrice that of kalenjin to play second fiddle to kalenjin,please sober up.gema have options beyond Mobutu,give us a break,start sharpening your arrows if that is what will make Mobutu president.
So according to you,it's only Mobutu who can cobble a winning formulae,chieth.How do you even think about winning yet you are party less,radarless,clueless,careless.
What makes you think luos or luhyas or even kambas cannot support another kikuyu for presidency same way you supported Uhuru or you think it's only kalenjins who have political patents and rights to support kikuyus,shut up.

Notice how you removed Raila out of equation . Mt Kenya has never been united only for a simple reason - They just dont like or trust Raila , now remove  Raila from equation as you have done and it will be a different matrix altogether and Ruto will need to go back to drawing board .
AS far as who has been rudderless and clueless , go no further than Raila and ODM themselves , jumping from one blunder to the other  they are now corruption defenders  and they always say the reason for the handshake was to fight corruption .They are politicians and they might be playing poltics to save BBI bu a matter of fact on the ground they lost alot of points when they were selling themselves as the anti grafters

[RV Pundit]

Pajero, let see who will deputies your 20yrs going now candidate PK and how much votes they will get.Gema candidate unless it was someone like James Mwangi will first struggle to unite GEMA.You don't just drop from the sky and everyone line up.Maybe Raila and odm are willing to deputies PK...if that was true...he would get some traction..but as long as Raila ain't planning to do that...Ruto remain the favourite

[RV Pundit]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cjamehk/status/1297590018920394756/photo/1

The usual nonsense.Urp and tna when it was coalition.URP had 72 mps while TNA HAD 85.The same with governors and srnators.Ruto start with kalenjin votes and bring the rest of kabila to jubilee..so we are talking nearly 4m for gema 4m.