Author Topic: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila  (Read 14732 times)

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2020, 10:29:05 AM »
This is the new laughable nonsense that will implode as all the others before.

He can reclaim all the elites but kwa ground vitu ni different.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Dear Mami

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2020, 10:30:45 AM »
No, you ODMers don't just like the truth I dish, that is why you're all over attempting to railroad me to say GEMA will endorse Raila for his final run as PORK. Something that I know is an impossible scenario.
I haven't railroaded u, bwana. I have asked why you keep hitting misses so consistently: From Langata by-election mpaka now, Robina has been running circles around you in .ke politics, so I'm just concluding your models are not as good as they used to be, even if I accept they were accurate be4.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2020, 10:31:35 AM »
Uhuru took over jubilee through sheer forces - illegalities - starting from Jubilee NMC - creating coalitions with KANU - and name it. Ruto saw it not worth the fight. Let him have those positions - and he still will struggle because he doesn't have real support of parliament and the ground.

ODM are helping Uhuru - and without that help - Ruto would make a mincemeat of Uhuru.

But because Ruto figures out Uhuru is playing Raila - why waste bullets.

Your claims about Ruto's stranglehold on JP, Parliament and now "ground" you been making 2018 to now. Until Uhurutopia imploded few weeks ago you claimed the civil war was a charade to string Raila. It is your spin and tail-chasing I am mocking.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2020, 10:33:54 AM »
More power to Robina. He is winning the battles like Raila but as always will lose the war. Focus yourself on the war.
I haven't railroaded u, bwana. I have asked why you keep hitting misses so consistently: From Langata by-election mpaka now, Robina has been running circles around you in .ke politics, so I'm just concluding your models are not as good as they used to be, even if I accept they were accurate be4.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2020, 10:36:47 AM »
 :D The only one being played is Ruto. Spin has a limit my fren. You can't blame Jezebel and Kibicho for the floods then act surprised by the ruthless machinery. It a well known factor like money, tribe, turnout. Unless, of course, you are fake pundit.

Uhuru took over jubilee through sheer forces - illegalities - starting from Jubilee NMC - creating coalitions with KANU - and name it. Ruto saw it not worth the fight. Let him have those positions - and he still will struggle because he doesn't have real support of parliament and the ground.

ODM are helping Uhuru - and without that help - Ruto would make a mincemeat of Uhuru.

But because Ruto figures out Uhuru is playing Raila - why waste bullets.

Your claims about Ruto's stranglehold on JP, Parliament and now "ground" you been making 2018 to now. Until Uhurutopia imploded few weeks ago you claimed the civil war was a charade to string Raila. It is your spin and tail-chasing I am mocking.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 01:38:27 PM by Robina »
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Njuri Ncheke

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »
If one was to ask the most basic question, "how would raira help Uhuru reclaim central" these newspapers are good for wrapping nyama just like the addict said. Very stupid reasoning. Its like Uhuru helping raira reclaim luo vote. Daft!

Offline Pajero

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2020, 12:02:06 PM »
Pundito,you need to take some leave coz at this rate you will go mad.You have been peddling theories here since 2013 left,right and centre.You even claimed Uhuru will step down for Ruto 3 months prior to 2022 elections.All your predictions are falling flat.The only consistent theory you have is GEMA will never support Raila.
Fast foward,we are in 2020 Uhuru is showing no sign of tosharing Ruto,he has frustrated Ruto left ,right, centre,he has been chased out of mombasa official residence,his lietanants removed from key party positions,mau evictions,kibichos,murathes,gitaus used to undermine him,roles transferred to matiangi,budget slashed,executive order on precidency and many more.Yet you still believe that Uhuru and by extension gema will support Ruto.What is soo hard for you and kalenjins to believe that you have been played big time,not once,not twice.Pick up the pieces and accept reality.

on to Raila,i still insist that Uhuru nor gema have no good plans for him just as they dont have for Ruto.But unlike Ruto and kalenjins,Raila and his luos do not loose anything because after all kikuyus have never supported him,if anything he stands to gain much from a divided jubilee.Besides Raila has his political bases intact,vis nyanza,western,nairobi and coast.Raila interest here is to divide jubilee and ensure Kalenjin wing of jubilee Ruto goes south,while kikuyu wing goes  north.

Now back to Ruto,he needs uhuru and jubilee more than uhuru needs him.Thats a plain fact.Dont tell us about ground,Kenya poltics is tribal and it will never change with Ruto.Gema will go with Uhuru,take that to bank.For now Ruto has no party,he will be forced to defect with his kalenjin wing to revive URP of another outfit may be jubilee kenya,jubilee Eldoret or asili,i dont care.thats already a blow to his ambitions,he will be playing catch up with Raila and Uhuru.You dont form a party 5 months to elections and expect to win.
Ruto thinks Raila is the enemy but i disagree,he needs to look at the bigger picture,he is fighting an imaginary enemy,his enemy no 1 is Uhuru and gema.he should focus his lenses beyond Raila.

Digest.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2020, 12:45:21 PM »
Only that Raila plan is so transparent it laughable. You can only execute a trojan horse once. When Raila think he is done imploding Jubilee - Jubilee will meet one afternoon - and declare the hostilities ceased - and Ruto endorsed.

If not - then like you say - Raila will win. But does GEMA want Raila to win? No. Does Ruto want Raila to win? No.

Are Jubilee differences irreconcilable? I don't think so.

So anyway let start with plausible scenarios.

1) Raila splits Jubilee into two -  We have 3 horse fight - btw Gema, Raila, and Ruto.
2) Jubilee ceases hostilities - endorse Ruto - and goes on to win.


Pundito,you need to take some leave coz at this rate you will go mad.You have been peddling theories here since 2013 left,right and centre.You even claimed Uhuru will step down for Ruto 3 months prior to 2022 elections.All your predictions are falling flat.The only consistent theory you have is GEMA will never support Raila.
Fast foward,we are in 2020 Uhuru is showing no sign of tosharing Ruto,he has frustrated Ruto left ,right, centre,he has been chased out of mombasa official residence,his lietanants removed from key party positions,mau evictions,kibichos,murathes,gitaus used to undermine him,roles transferred to matiangi,budget slashed,executive order on precidency and many more.Yet you still believe that Uhuru and by extension gema will support Ruto.What is soo hard for you and kalenjins to believe that you have been played big time,not once,not twice.Pick up the pieces and accept reality.

on to Raila,i still insist that Uhuru nor gema have no good plans for him just as they dont have for Ruto.But unlike Ruto and kalenjins,Raila and his luos do not loose anything because after all kikuyus have never supported him,if anything he stands to gain much from a divided jubilee.Besides Raila has his political bases intact,vis nyanza,western,nairobi and coast.Raila interest here is to divide jubilee and ensure Kalenjin wing of jubilee Ruto goes south,while kikuyu wing goes  north.

Now back to Ruto,he needs uhuru and jubilee more than uhuru needs him.Thats a plain fact.Dont tell us about ground,Kenya poltics is tribal and it will never change with Ruto.Gema will go with Uhuru,take that to bank.For now Ruto has no party,he will be forced to defect with his kalenjin wing to revive URP of another outfit may be jubilee kenya,jubilee Eldoret or asili,i dont care.thats already a blow to his ambitions,he will be playing catch up with Raila and Uhuru.You dont form a party 5 months to elections and expect to win.
Ruto thinks Raila is the enemy but i disagree,he needs to look at the bigger picture,he is fighting an imaginary enemy,his enemy no 1 is Uhuru and gema.he should focus his lenses beyond Raila.

Digest.


Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2020, 01:58:08 PM »
If one was to ask the most basic question, "how would raira help Uhuru reclaim central" these newspapers are good for wrapping nyama just like the addict said. Very stupid reasoning. Its like Uhuru helping raira reclaim luo vote. Daft!

That's a literal statement - as in Raila is acting as a go-between or soft landing for defecting GEMA - meeting them at the fake AU office. Obviously Warugurus are not joining Raila but re-joining Uhuru.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Njuri Ncheke

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2020, 02:47:39 PM »
If one was to ask the most basic question, "how would raira help Uhuru reclaim central" these newspapers are good for wrapping nyama just like the addict said. Very stupid reasoning. Its like Uhuru helping raira reclaim luo vote. Daft!

That's a literal statement - as in Raila is acting as a go-between or soft landing for defecting GEMA - meeting them at the fake AU office. Obviously Warugurus are not joining Raila but re-joining Uhuru.
Raira has begun repeating same mistakes he did previously... And Uhuru is very happy. Why not let addict deal with his problems, i see tears very soon for baba. Tuju should be doing dirty work for wanjohi not baba.

Offline patel

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #30 on: June 12, 2020, 04:03:28 PM »
Y'all waking up to Baghdad bob fake punditry littered with URP propaganda. Only good for entertainment value. Grandeur delusion.  Man down. Man on the ground. Ruto strategy lay low for 1 year and run down the clock. Who does that when scud missiles are raining down ? 

Offline Garliv

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #31 on: June 13, 2020, 12:26:56 AM »
Ruto's strategy to lie low is the best option and most logical of all steps he could take. I have stated before that Ruto WAS NOT COMPETING WITH UHURU. So when Uhuru comes from woodwork intoxicated with not retiring, it got a lot of people off guards. If Ruto complains or try to assert himself then he gives Uhuru nuts justifications to keep attacking him.
Take it to the bank; ONLY envisaged constitutional changes can delay Ruto as 5th President or Death. Right now, you give him anybody including Raila and Uhuru he will beat them at the polls. Period.

All claims here that Raila has "non-Gema" is overhyped hopes. He cannot get Eastern without Kalonzo/Mutua/Ngilu factors. Somalis are HUGELY pro-Ruto. Luhya as usual will give Ruto like 30% (depending), Maasai's are pro-Ruto. Turkanas are pro-Ruto. Raila is guranteed Nyanza/Western 70%. Coast he gets majority but Coast is so low in population that it doesn't have huge impact except for MPs/Senators factor. That takes like the "majority of non-Gemas"... Now ADD RV numbers and Mt. Kenya behemoth and Ruto has no competitor. He's competing to outlast Uhuru's madness/dictatorship which for now BEST medicine is silence; that's all.



Y'all waking up to Baghdad bob fake punditry littered with URP propaganda. Only good for entertainment value. Grandeur delusion.  Man down. Man on the ground. Ruto strategy lay low for 1 year and run down the clock. Who does that when scud missiles are raining down ?

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #32 on: June 13, 2020, 03:17:23 AM »
If one was to ask the most basic question, "how would raira help Uhuru reclaim central" these newspapers are good for wrapping nyama just like the addict said. Very stupid reasoning. Its like Uhuru helping raira reclaim luo vote. Daft!

That's a literal statement - as in Raila is acting as a go-between or soft landing for defecting GEMA - meeting them at the fake AU office. Obviously Warugurus are not joining Raila but re-joining Uhuru.
Raira has begun repeating same mistakes he did previously... And Uhuru is very happy. Why not let addict deal with his problems, i see tears very soon for baba. Tuju should be doing dirty work for wanjohi not baba.

Baba is not so naive as desperate clocking 80. Having been near-executive PM he has only one ambition left - to be on the portraits. So he has literally nothing to lose and won't experiment like Ruto. Even the 2010 greed of giving up parliamentary is gone. He is ready to be ceremonial and let Uhuru 2.0 in as Exec PM. I don't see big chance of betrayal when he is already giving up CEO powers for figurehead.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #33 on: June 13, 2020, 07:24:19 AM »
Nobody will buy that ceremonial thing Robina.Unless Constitution is overhauled to parliamentary system the president remains very powerful.Raila strategy to keep Uhuru longer in power will collapse because Uhuru is smarter than that that..

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #34 on: June 13, 2020, 07:27:54 AM »
Ruto's strategy to lie low is the best option and most logical of all steps he could take. I have stated before that Ruto WAS NOT COMPETING WITH UHURU. So when Uhuru comes from woodwork intoxicated with not retiring, it got a lot of people off guards. If Ruto complains or try to assert himself then he gives Uhuru nuts justifications to keep attacking him.
Take it to the bank; ONLY envisaged constitutional changes can delay Ruto as 5th President or Death. Right now, you give him anybody including Raila and Uhuru he will beat them at the polls. Period.

All claims here that Raila has "non-Gema" is overhyped hopes. He cannot get Eastern without Kalonzo/Mutua/Ngilu factors. Somalis are HUGELY pro-Ruto. Luhya as usual will give Ruto like 30% (depending), Maasai's are pro-Ruto. Turkanas are pro-Ruto. Raila is guranteed Nyanza/Western 70%. Coast he gets majority but Coast is so low in population that it doesn't have huge impact except for MPs/Senators factor. That takes like the "majority of non-Gemas"... Now ADD RV numbers and Mt. Kenya behemoth and Ruto has no competitor. He's competing to outlast Uhuru's madness/dictatorship which for now BEST medicine is silence; that's all.



Y'all waking up to Baghdad bob fake punditry littered with URP propaganda. Only good for entertainment value. Grandeur delusion.  Man down. Man on the ground. Ruto strategy lay low for 1 year and run down the clock. Who does that when scud missiles are raining down ?
Yes Ruto lay low strategy deflated Uhuru.I don't see Uhuru sharing power now that he has Jubilee majority.Ruto needs to play dumb for the next 1yr unless BBI is really provocative.Come mid 2021 Wanjohi will naturally be lameduck.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #35 on: June 13, 2020, 10:36:41 AM »
Well conjecture vs news as usual. Uhuru is perceiving a "constitutional moment" - it's on YouTube :) - Raila and ODM dream day and night about referendum. What evidence backs your take - referendum budget?

Nobody will buy that ceremonial thing Robina.Unless Constitution is overhauled to parliamentary system the president remains very powerful.Raila strategy to keep Uhuru longer in power will collapse because Uhuru is smarter than that that..
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #36 on: June 13, 2020, 10:38:08 AM »
No thanks - this I cannot even take to the local Ajua down the street.
Ruto's strategy to lie low is the best option and most logical of all steps he could take. I have stated before that Ruto WAS NOT COMPETING WITH UHURU. So when Uhuru comes from woodwork intoxicated with not retiring, it got a lot of people off guards. If Ruto complains or try to assert himself then he gives Uhuru nuts justifications to keep attacking him.
Take it to the bank; ONLY envisaged constitutional changes can delay Ruto as 5th President or Death. Right now, you give him anybody including Raila and Uhuru he will beat them at the polls. Period.



Raila has non-GEMA is not hype - he has polled highly among the for 10yr+ - even the 44% vs 53 Uhuruto is bulk non-GEMA-RV votes. You can argue Kalonzo and Weta-Mdvd but that depends on where they go, no?

UKAMBANI for instance Raila has the 3 governors going by Kibra. They delivered Kamba to Imra as wishy-washy Kalonzo backed Prezzo- then Butichi- then Mariga :)

LUHYA Raila bagged 95% 2017. He is destabilizing Mdvd and Weta because he is going with GEMA partner so he needs Luhya divided - that way he gets the most spoils. Raila has fierce anti-Ruto Luhyas mbutas - Oparanya, Atwoli, Eugene, Malala, Wangamati, Khaemba, etc. Ruto diehards are pawns - Khalwale, Waluke, Washiali. He just lost Echesa - I suspect Khalwale will be the next Judas to stab him in the back.

GUSII was split about 50-50 Uhuruto-Raila - but we know Ruto has no following there. Cause he has warrior issues akin to Uhuru coast land problem. Unless Ruto pulls a Matiang'i or such rabbit he is DOA.

NFD is arguable but with their pro-incumbent DNA and Ali Robas defecting Ruto is in trouble. More trouble with Borana, Samburu with Koreres, Yattanis. NFD is dicey and hard nut for Ruto with loss of incumbency. If Duale decamps it will be the last stroke.

MAA the ground was pro-Ruto before BBI and Mau. Then Tunai and Lenku decamped. Kina, Tobiko lit up Mau. The Kipsigis-Maa simmering and fermented tensions are the worst. on't hold your breath.

TURKANA - if Ruto keeps Nanok, Munyes, Ethuro he can nick it. Tough luck - Nanok has been lying low like an envelope - Munyes is CS so cannot back him - Ethuro is MIA.

In short Ruto is not doing well in Mijikenda, Gusii, Luhya (3) and is struggling in Matusa, NFD (2). Kamba is up in the air but Raila has the upper hand cause of Ngilus. That 3 blocks strongly pro-Raila. 2 blocks 50-50. One is open. Zero blocks strongly pro-Ruto.

So you see it fair to say Raila has non-GEMA, no?

MT KENYA... ha! The trend of course is a nighmare scenario for Ruto. Raila is backed by Gema king as the pawns desert Ruto - in a long file - you know the litany. The only "ground" we can point to is thuraku on social media - not looking good for your Ruto. Sorry I don't how "silence" is the best medicine. I know you don't agree - despite that I have evidence - maybe let time settle this for us?
All claims here that Raila has "non-Gema" is overhyped hopes. He cannot get Eastern without Kalonzo/Mutua/Ngilu factors. Somalis are HUGELY pro-Ruto. Luhya as usual will give Ruto like 30% (depending), Maasai's are pro-Ruto. Turkanas are pro-Ruto. Raila is guranteed Nyanza/Western 70%. Coast he gets majority but Coast is so low in population that it doesn't have huge impact except for MPs/Senators factor. That takes like the "majority of non-Gemas"... Now ADD RV numbers and Mt. Kenya behemoth and Ruto has no competitor. He's competing to outlast Uhuru's madness/dictatorship which for now BEST medicine is silence; that's all.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Garliv

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #37 on: June 13, 2020, 01:41:49 PM »
And am FIRMLY SAYING THIS; NO ONE CAN BEAT RUTO SHOULD KATIBA BE AS IT IS. PERIOD. All (secret) Opinion polls plus intelligence report have come to that undeniable conclusion. ONLY RAILA can give him competition BUT has no chance of prevailing over Ruto. Even with meaningless Uhuru Meta Meta Endorsement Raila doesn't beat Ruto. Hence the "real fear" of some Uhuru Nuts that "left alone haka kamtu katachukua..."

NB: We don't mind for Kalonzo to get DP with Ruto and that would FINISH any chance Raila may think he has.

And you agree that Raila is only guaranteed FULL SUPPORT in Nyanza/Western. And to a degree Coast. The rest Ruto Rules. You can argue whatever but that is the way it is. Ruto can even give Raila 100% of Nyanza (but Kisiis will give Ruto 40%) and Western (but Ruto can get 30%) BUT STILL HE BEATS RAILA OR ANYONE ELSE.

Only salvation for you and Raila team are CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES.


NB: FOR MT. KENYA; Don't even argue anything here. Believe what you want and analyse till cows home. Nothing will change facts; Even regular Sub-Chiefs and Chiefs reports from locations across Mt. Kenya emphatically report that people have not warmed up to BBI or to proposed or intended constitutional changes. For Presidential consideration after Uhuru, Ruto is OVERWHELMINGLY PREFERRED. If you have contacts at Interior or other place they have access to such reports they will CONFIRM THAT. Na sisi tuko ground pia....


No thanks - this I cannot even take to the local Ajua down the street.
Ruto's strategy to lie low is the best option and most logical of all steps he could take. I have stated before that Ruto WAS NOT COMPETING WITH UHURU. So when Uhuru comes from woodwork intoxicated with not retiring, it got a lot of people off guards. If Ruto complains or try to assert himself then he gives Uhuru nuts justifications to keep attacking him.
Take it to the bank; ONLY envisaged constitutional changes can delay Ruto as 5th President or Death. Right now, you give him anybody including Raila and Uhuru he will beat them at the polls. Period.



Raila has non-GEMA is not hype - he has polled highly among the for 10yr+ - even the 44% vs 53 Uhuruto is bulk non-GEMA-RV votes. You can argue Kalonzo and Weta-Mdvd but that depends on where they go, no?

UKAMBANI for instance Raila has the 3 governors going by Kibra. They delivered Kamba to Imra as wishy-washy Kalonzo backed Prezzo- then Butichi- then Mariga :)

LUHYA Raila bagged 95% 2017. He is destabilizing Mdvd and Weta because he is going with GEMA partner so he needs Luhya divided - that way he gets the most spoils. Raila has fierce anti-Ruto Luhyas mbutas - Oparanya, Atwoli, Eugene, Malala, Wangamati, Khaemba, etc. Ruto diehards are pawns - Khalwale, Waluke, Washiali. He just lost Echesa - I suspect Khalwale will be the next Judas to stab him in the back.

GUSII was split about 50-50 Uhuruto-Raila - but we know Ruto has no following there. Cause he has warrior issues akin to Uhuru coast land problem. Unless Ruto pulls a Matiang'i or such rabbit he is DOA.

NFD is arguable but with their pro-incumbent DNA and Ali Robas defecting Ruto is in trouble. More trouble with Borana, Samburu with Koreres, Yattanis. NFD is dicey and hard nut for Ruto with loss of incumbency. If Duale decamps it will be the last stroke.

MAA the ground was pro-Ruto before BBI and Mau. Then Tunai and Lenku decamped. Kina, Tobiko lit up Mau. The Kipsigis-Maa simmering and fermented tensions are the worst. on't hold your breath.

TURKANA - if Ruto keeps Nanok, Munyes, Ethuro he can nick it. Tough luck - Nanok has been lying low like an envelope - Munyes is CS so cannot back him - Ethuro is MIA.

In short Ruto is not doing well in Mijikenda, Gusii, Luhya (3) and is struggling in Matusa, NFD (2). Kamba is up in the air but Raila has the upper hand cause of Ngilus. That 3 blocks strongly pro-Raila. 2 blocks 50-50. One is open. Zero blocks strongly pro-Ruto.

So you see it fair to say Raila has non-GEMA, no?

MT KENYA... ha! The trend of course is a nighmare scenario for Ruto. Raila is backed by Gema king as the pawns desert Ruto - in a long file - you know the litany. The only "ground" we can point to is thuraku on social media - not looking good for your Ruto. Sorry I don't how "silence" is the best medicine. I know you don't agree - despite that I have evidence - maybe let time settle this for us?
All claims here that Raila has "non-Gema" is overhyped hopes. He cannot get Eastern without Kalonzo/Mutua/Ngilu factors. Somalis are HUGELY pro-Ruto. Luhya as usual will give Ruto like 30% (depending), Maasai's are pro-Ruto. Turkanas are pro-Ruto. Raila is guranteed Nyanza/Western 70%. Coast he gets majority but Coast is so low in population that it doesn't have huge impact except for MPs/Senators factor. That takes like the "majority of non-Gemas"... Now ADD RV numbers and Mt. Kenya behemoth and Ruto has no competitor. He's competing to outlast Uhuru's madness/dictatorship which for now BEST medicine is silence; that's all.

Offline Garliv

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #38 on: June 13, 2020, 02:12:18 PM »
Ceremonial President and Executive PM is how it started and it is how it's still being framed/phrased. But there is more to it..

Consider this: They amend constitution and have a one term President of 7 years. The President is ceremonial (in the sense that has "reduced powers"). The PM is elected based on numbers of MPs and Senators (so both houses). Uhuru becomes President under one-term of 7years and Raila get PM to run government. Gideon/Kalonzo either deputise President or the PM. With Mudavadi given some prominent role like second deputy PM in charge of Treasury, Planning, Industrialization, IT ministries under him.

Legal Justification for Uhuru to be one term President is based on Moi Ruling when he amended Section 2A of the old constitution and managed to rule for another 10years. Remember under the current constitution they inserted a specific clause to deny Kibaki from playing that game. So Kibaki could not argue that he was eligible to "restart" his Presidential bid. And that clause applied SPECIFICALLY FOR THAT SPECIFIC MOMENT so Uhuru is free to argue. With Raila political backing, Uhuru has muzzled Senate, National Assembly and now hammer is falling on the Judiciary.

My point is this; UHURU HAS ALL INTENT OF EXTENDING HIS STAY IN POWER. It looks logically insane, but from all that is out there i know he's damn serious.  There are 3 versions of expected constitutional changes in limited circulation/consultations. Haji and his group of Wazees are just waiting to be handed the preferable version and publish it.




Nobody will buy that ceremonial thing Robina.Unless Constitution is overhauled to parliamentary system the president remains very powerful.Raila strategy to keep Uhuru longer in power will collapse because Uhuru is smarter than that that..

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Uhuru reclaims Central through Raila
« Reply #39 on: June 13, 2020, 03:15:47 PM »
Hahaha let us deal with what is in the news or past elections - or reliable opinion polls - not what Philip Kameru whispered to Garliv over beer. Hearsay about "ground" is not useful without an objective source.

Let us try a small one: who supports Ruto in Gusii? So he can bag 40%. As at now - Raila has all the big kahuna: both governors, both senators, I believe all MPs. The other factor is Matiang'i who of course is Hanshake. Why exactly would Ruto bag 30% - because he is a performer?

Let us settle Gusii then go to Luhya - and establish Ruto vs Raila numbers.

And am FIRMLY SAYING THIS; NO ONE CAN BEAT RUTO SHOULD KATIBA BE AS IT IS. PERIOD. All (secret) Opinion polls plus intelligence report have come to that undeniable conclusion. ONLY RAILA can give him competition BUT has no chance of prevailing over Ruto. Even with meaningless Uhuru Meta Meta Endorsement Raila doesn't beat Ruto. Hence the "real fear" of some Uhuru Nuts that "left alone haka kamtu katachukua..."

NB: We don't mind for Kalonzo to get DP with Ruto and that would FINISH any chance Raila may think he has.

And you agree that Raila is only guaranteed FULL SUPPORT in Nyanza/Western. And to a degree Coast. The rest Ruto Rules. You can argue whatever but that is the way it is. Ruto can even give Raila 100% of Nyanza (but Kisiis will give Ruto 40%) and Western (but Ruto can get 30%) BUT STILL HE BEATS RAILA OR ANYONE ELSE.

Only salvation for you and Raila team are CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES.


NB: FOR MT. KENYA; Don't even argue anything here. Believe what you want and analyse till cows home. Nothing will change facts; Even regular Sub-Chiefs and Chiefs reports from locations across Mt. Kenya emphatically report that people have not warmed up to BBI or to proposed or intended constitutional changes. For Presidential consideration after Uhuru, Ruto is OVERWHELMINGLY PREFERRED. If you have contacts at Interior or other place they have access to such reports they will CONFIRM THAT. Na sisi tuko ground pia....
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527