Kenyan Economy shedding jobs like nonsense

[Nefertiti]

Satellites have leapfrogged in last decade. 20 years ago cellular was separate from satellite. So you had cell towers and cable all over the world for cellular. Satellites were used for weather and astronomy. Internet was first step of convergence. VoIP meant calls could use non-cellular network. Instead of bulky underwater cables in the oceans - most of 5G uses satellite transmission. Your next smartphone will be satellite enabled... so you can buy Facebook simcard.

[RV Pundit]

Satellite is low frequency high coverage but 5g is on high frequency radio wavelength that covers short distance and consume lots of power.You cannot change physics.

[Nefertiti]

Satellites operate on very high frequency - very high speeds. Ka-band is 50GHz+ - which is most sats. 4G cellular is around 16GHz. Only downside for sats is high latency - so realtime apps like autonomous cars can have problems. But streaming movies or most IoT usecases - smart TV or fridge or alarm - is quite good. Low earth orbit (LEO) sats have a better latency about 30 milliseconds. Musk claims his Starlink has 15ms latency. Latency is handshake or connection delay.

Now, cellular towers will be obsolete because already the 3G or some 4G towers are incompatible or not upgradable to 5G. 5G tiny cells at high frequency works more efficiently with satellite than tower. Every sector of the city will have a dedicated LEO satellite - basically a low-hanging constellation - with receiver dishes on the ground. Why have so many towers while sat has direct line on most locations? Especially remote 5G - outside the cities - sat will be more economical than tiny cellular cells.

[RV Pundit]

Nonsense. The future is 5G.

Satellites operate on very high frequency - very high speeds. Ka-band is 50GHz+ - which is most sats. 4G cellular is around 16GHz. Only downside for sats is high latency - so realtime apps like autonomous cars can have problems. But streaming movies or most IoT usecases - smart TV or fridge or alarm - is quite good. Low earth orbit (LEO) sats have a better latency about 30 milliseconds. Musk claims his Starlink has 15ms latency. Latency is handshake or connection delay.

Now, cellular towers will be obsolete because already the 3G or some 4G towers are incompatible or not upgradable to 5G. 5G tiny cells at high frequency works more efficiently with satellite than tower. Every sector of the city will have a dedicated LEO satellite - basically a low-hanging constellation - with receiver dishes on the ground. Why have so many towers while sat has direct line on most locations? Especially remote 5G - outside the cities - sat will be more economical than tiny cellular cells.

[Nefertiti]

You have it backwards. Let me help you.

5G is about speeds or quality of communication. It is not a competitor to satellite but rather a standard. Your phone is cellular and 4G or 5G... it could alternately be satellite and 5G.

Satellite is a means to communicate - same as telco masts and physical cable. Traditional cellular has run on telco masts and cable because satellite is high frequency 50GHz upwards - while 3G or 4G cellular is lower frequency 12 to 20GHz.

5G needs high frequency to achieve high speeds. This makes it compatible with satellite due to the similar frequency. But old 3G or 4G cellular towers may not be upgradable to 5G - nor can they suffice to boost the signals - because high frequency signals need "direct line of sight" to be effective. Towers would need to be super-tall to ensure direct line of sight in cities or mountainous areas. That is why telco operators are installing 5X as many cell towers per every small area to operate on the high frequency needed by 5G. 5G installations in San Francisco is possibly 000's of small cells. They are causing political problems in some places - folks are scared of cancer from masts hanging over their houses like power transformers.

Why do I think satellite is the future? Why are Google, Facebook, SpaceX launching 000's of satellites all over? Why are major telcos investing big in satellite? Because - duh - satellite is more economical in beaming 5G with direct line of sight. This is especially true outside cities. In cities, a few satellites can actually beam 5G more effectively with support of dishes in buildings. Much more efficiently than multiple mini-cell towers. Many houses and buildings already have tv or data receivers and would not even notice any change.

The future is 5G yes. But it is not ocean cable or cell towers. It 5G, 6G, etc on satellite. All the renewed satellite R&D and mega-investments in the last decade is definitely bearing fruit. Safaricom is a dinosaur because it has missed out on major tech shifts since mobile pay. They floundered on cloud, streaming TV, e-commerce and name it. Now they are missing out on satellite. I stand advised on the Vodafone shackles firmly on their heads - as visible as akorino turbans.

Nonsense. The future is 5G.

[Nefertiti]

Folks don't want 5G "transformers" in their neighborhoods.



Mike Blake/Reuters

Communities Are Fighting 5G, Permit by Permit
SARAH HOLDER MAY 15, 2019

NIMBY backlash is complicating the next generation of wireless internet technology, with recent help from the California Supreme Court.small cells can cause long-term health problems, and even cancer.

...

https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/05/fast-internet-wireless-service-provider-wifi-5g-boxes-fcc/587269/

[Nefertiti]

Pundit: here are Safcom's new "innovations" - after shuttering the R&D lab


Data now won't expire: Safaricom

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Safaricom-marks-19-years-products-without-expiry-dates/996-5321546-7qbk4m/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Pundit: here are Safcom's new "innovations" - after shuttering the R&D lab


Data now won't expire: Safaricom

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Safaricom-marks-19-years-products-without-expiry-dates/996-5321546-7qbk4m/index.html

Once at a job interview I proposed to the fools a blockchain app - LPX - for Bonga Points, airline fly miles, Starbuck Rewards - and entire shebang of loyalties in the globe. They thought am a Martian.

[RV Pundit]

You should have got the job first - before unleashing all that.Safaricom at it's core - is still Telkom/Posta -the 400 or 1000 staff that initially started it came from Telkom and are seniors - culturewise - a parastal - with most of technical stuff done by  Chinese and Indian contractors.

Once at a job interview I proposed to the fools a blockchain app - LPX - for Bonga Points, airline fly miles, Starbuck Rewards - and entire shebang of loyalties in the globe. They thought am a Martian.

[Nefertiti]

Yep. You're so right. They thought "bespoke" is wrong idea. All thinking must be outsourced to Huawei.

You should have got the job first - before unleashing all that.Safaricom at it's core - is still Telkom/Posta -the 400 or 1000 staff that initially started it came from Telkom and are seniors - culturewise - a parastal - with most of technical stuff done by  Chinese and Indian contractors.

Once at a job interview I proposed to the fools a blockchain app - LPX - for Bonga Points, airline fly miles, Starbuck Rewards - and entire shebang of loyalties in the globe. They thought am a Martian.

[Nefertiti]

I was gona take the job but my PI let me in on the dirty secret - of the feuds n entrenched CYA politics - that Kamal Bhattacharya and Ron Webb faced. I can't wire the machines and hack people heads too. The board needs to fix the top layer so innovators can breathe in some hope into the skeleton.

You should have got the job first - before unleashing all that.Safaricom at it's core - is still Telkom/Posta -the 400 or 1000 staff that initially started it came from Telkom and are seniors - culturewise - a parastal - with most of technical stuff done by  Chinese and Indian contractors.

Once at a job interview I proposed to the fools a blockchain app - LPX - for Bonga Points, airline fly miles, Starbuck Rewards - and entire shebang of loyalties in the globe. They thought am a Martian.

[Georgesoros]

Pundit: here are Safcom's new "innovations" - after shuttering the R&D lab


Data now won't expire: Safaricom

https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Safaricom-marks-19-years-products-without-expiry-dates/996-5321546-7qbk4m/index.html

Once at a job interview I proposed to the fools a blockchain app - LPX - for Bonga Points, airline fly miles, Starbuck Rewards - and entire shebang of loyalties in the globe. They thought am a Martian.

MArtian LOL!

[Nefertiti]

Parker how is our dear pitiful KQ doing?

[RV Pundit]

If they keep MJ longer - until they get someone that strong - then it will work. Bob collymore fired the previous administration - that was very corrupt. I am praying gov sells it shareholding and use the money to build roads - it's the biggest risk to Safaricom future.

Gov are sitting at 4B dollars -  when it badly need the money to fix infrastructure deficit.

I was gona take the job but my PI let me in on the dirty secret - of the feuds n entrenched CYA politics - that Kamal Bhattacharya and Ron Webb faced. I can't wire the machines and hack people heads too. The board needs to fix the top layer so innovators can breathe in some hope into the skeleton.

[Nefertiti]

You are right MJ need to be chairman - and scout for global talent - too old to actively steer the ship. It good he has not let that Sylvia Mulinge - chief something officer and such low grade managers - anywhere near the corner office. Yes GoK and Mucheru need to ship out and let MJ's do their thing.

If they keep MJ longer - until they get someone that strong - then it will work. Bob collymore fired the previous administration - that was very corrupt. I am praying gov sells it shareholding and use the money to build roads - it's the biggest risk to Safaricom future.

Gov are sitting at 4B dollars -  when it badly need the money to fix infrastructure deficit.

[RV Pundit]

Vodacom (40%) and foreign investors basically own 60% of Safaricom - so Gok & Mucheru can puff and huff - but the will be out-voted in the board. GoK should simply ship out - they add no value on Safaricom - they should concentrate on making CA - a real sector regulator. Now they cannot regulate the sector because they sit in Safaricom board.

You are right MJ need to be chairman - and scout for global talent - too old to actively steer the ship. It good he has not let that Sylvia Mulinge - chief something officer and such low grade managers - anywhere near the corner office. Yes GoK and Mucheru need to ship out and let MJ's do their thing.

[Nefertiti]

There are AoA clauses giving GoK reserve powers. It was a bad sign Vodafone divesting - "switching" stock with Vodacom. I doubt international investors still hold majority of the stock. Safcom has shrunk 12B to 10B usd in last few years. I suspect international investors have quietly offloaded - thus the bear run - while locals have kept it afloat. Locals eyeing the profits but can't see beyond their nose.

[RV Pundit]

I hope they don't let gok near it...otherwise it will die a slow painful death. Vodafone divesting allows Safaricom chance to divest abroad. If they get into Ethiopia - that will be huge - they need to do everything possible to be allowed to rollout M-pesa in Ethiopia.

There are AoA clauses giving GoK reserve powers. It was a bad sign Vodafone divesting - "switching" stock with Vodacom. I doubt international investors still hold majority of the stock. Safcom has shrunk 12B to 10B usd in last few years. I suspect international investors have quietly offloaded - thus the bear run - while locals have kept it afloat. Locals eyeing the profits but can't see beyond their nose.

[Pragmatic]

There is no innovation going on at Safcom. It is a shame for the tonnes of money that it makes. It should have sprouted a couple of start-ups which would compete on the world stage and look to IPO in Nasdaq or NYSE. You can literally run it with your eyes closed, auto-pilot. It has no competition to talk of. Safcom badly needs a real innovator manager. Their next tier managers after Michael Joseph are just clueless and not business managers at all, leave alone being tech savvy.

Mpesa has been their boon, it has helped Safcom retain/hold-on to its subscriber base because of the "network effect". Safcom has benefitted from soft regulation also known as state capture and i agree with Pundit better state unbundled its stake and makes the billion dollars while it is still riding high. In a different market Mpesa would already have been flagged and unbundled as a financial service/bank and not a telco VAS service. This is literally a national payment system and Ethiopia wont make the same mistake as Kenya by allowing a non-regulated service like Mpesa; at very worst Mpesa may be under regulator or CBE (Commercial Bank of Ethiopia), their "KCB", which is literally like their Central Bank.

Safcom is a seating duck, some disruptive tech or business will literally send it into a serious contraction. Voice has been a major revenue earner, but voice is being commoditized and a "dying" dependable line of business. Safcom has milked this.... even as the most expensive calling charges in the market. I agree with Robina, 5G satellite could be it. I heard Tesla has launched or is launching Starlink or something like that. Literally raining down satellites for a global IP network blanketing the world. This will be a game changer! Today we had an outage on SEACOM and almost all the service providers were out. It tells you that we have no real redundancy and the so called redundant links with the likes of TEAMs and the other undersea providers are literally also using SEACOM as their service provider! Satellite would have been a reliable redundant link.

I see some disruptive OTP service killing the voice service as we know it. This is why most operators are throttling OTP, but this can't last for long. In Dubai, they throttle Whatsapp calling. There are already ways to get around this. In-country regulatory regime are a dying holdover. Soon you could literally have a global mobile phone and you don't have to be regulated by your corrupted/state-captured domicile regulator.


Robina, time to talk about that idea you had on taking on Mpesa in Kenya.... going for Pesalink land-grab and building an open-API ecommerce/mobile money ecosystem around it. Bingo! a real Game changer that would turn Mpesa on its head. Also a currency backed (shilling) crypto-currency. To be honest, long before Facebook decided that their (Ca)Libra will be a currency backed crypto, Mpesa is actually a shilling backed crypto-currency. You literally hold an e-currency in your e-wallet with the confidence that when you go to the Mpesa agent, he/she will give you a shilling for every 1 unit of what you hold in your e-wallet.

[RV Pundit]

Most of what you write is unwarranted attack. Safaricom has helped built ecosystem around m-pesa that has affected nearly all industries. From fintech to agritech - to solar or energy tech - name it - m-pesa is now the back-bone of kenyan economy. Kenya is still the global leader. That is not easy when you're a third world country - and you're shackled by Vodafone.

When you're managing such a responsibility - then you cannot afford trial & error - Safaricom main business is to KEEP MPESA ALIVE 99.99% of the time. The rest can come later. Kenya M-PESA last I checked was nearly getting to where likes of VISA & Master card are - in terms of volume of transactions. That is helluva BUSY BUSY payment system processing billions of transactions annually. In my current hassle - I manage our m-pesa systems - we are not big company - but we receive m-pesa payment nearly every second - that is like 80,000 Mpesa transaction daily - 2.5M every month - 30M annually - literally one m-pesa payment every second - huge responsibility to ensure the least possible downtime.

Nigeria tried your ideas of letting banks to run their M-PESA. EPIC FAIL. GHANA went kenyan model - and Ghana is pretty much second to Kenya now - I think Tanzania is not far behind.

Safaricom is now a 12B dollars goliath. That is not an easy fete,

I think they should focus more on growing M-pesa (M-pesa is just about started), then focus on data - FTTH ( Fiber to the Home) and 5G network -  they can eventually give you free calls - like now SMS are essentially free - I get like 1000 SMS everytime I buy data bundle.

They can future-proof their business by rolling out fiber to homes & 5-6G when you're out of home (nothing will beat that in near future) and being your banker (M-pesa). Those two will mean safaricom will be untouchable in kenya forever.

There is no innovation going on at Safcom. It is a shame for the tonnes of money that it makes. It should have sprouted a couple of start-ups which would compete on the world stage and look to IPO in Nasdaq or NYSE. You can literally run it with your eyes closed, auto-pilot. It has no competition to talk of. Safcom badly needs a real innovator manager. Their next tier managers after Michael Joseph are just clueless and not business managers at all, leave alone being tech savvy.

Mpesa has been their boon, it has helped Safcom retain/hold-on to its subscriber base because of the "network effect". Safcom has benefitted from soft regulation also known as state capture and i agree with Pundit better state unbundled its stake and makes the billion dollars while it is still riding high. In a different market Mpesa would already have been flagged and unbundled as a financial service/bank and not a telco VAS service. This is literally a national payment system and Ethiopia wont make the same mistake as Kenya by allowing a non-regulated service like Mpesa; at very worst Mpesa may be under regulator or CBE (Commercial Bank of Ethiopia), their "KCB", which is literally like their Central Bank.

Safcom is a seating duck, some disruptive tech or business will literally send it into a serious contraction. Voice has been a major revenue earner, but voice is being commoditized and a "dying" dependable line of business. Safcom has milked this.... even as the most expensive calling charges in the market. I agree with Robina, 5G satellite could be it. I heard Tesla has launched or is launching Starlink or something like that. Literally raining down satellites for a global IP network blanketing the world. This will be a game changer! Today we had an outage on SEACOM and almost all the service providers were out. It tells you that we have no real redundancy and the so called redundant links with the likes of TEAMs and the other undersea providers are literally also using SEACOM as their service provider! Satellite would have been a reliable redundant link.

I see some disruptive OTP service killing the voice service as we know it. This is why most operators are throttling OTP, but this can't last for long. In Dubai, they throttle Whatsapp calling. There are already ways to get around this. In-country regulatory regime are a dying holdover. Soon you could literally have a global mobile phone and you don't have to be regulated by your corrupted/state-captured domicile regulator.


Robina, time to talk about that idea you had on taking on Mpesa in Kenya.... going for Pesalink land-grab and building an open-API ecommerce/mobile money ecosystem around it. Bingo! a real Game changer that would turn Mpesa on its head. Also a currency backed (shilling) crypto-currency. To be honest, long before Facebook decided that their (Ca)Libra will be a currency backed crypto, Mpesa is actually a shilling backed crypto-currency. You literally hold an e-currency in your e-wallet with the confidence that when you go to the Mpesa agent, he/she will give you a shilling for every 1 unit of what you hold in your e-wallet.