Author Topic: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff  (Read 10475 times)

Offline vooke

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #40 on: August 08, 2019, 01:55:29 PM »
But when we want to put in cheap coal plants...enviromentalist go gaga. Our electricity is expensive because we are using expensive sources. Coal is cheap...about 1-2 cents...hydro is cheap..at 3 cents..but we are just in semi-arid region with few rivers..so hyrdo is out.

Anyway this conversation to have now. Put up Coal and Natural Gas plants.....and lower electricity. But first let thermal power IPP run out.

And you cannot just fix power - you need to fix the infrastructure - bad roads, lack of rail, and lack of water & sewage - will make manufacturing impossible.

In short you need to tick many boxes.

2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #41 on: August 08, 2019, 02:17:04 PM »
International contracts are international contracts. Unless we can prove corruption, they stand. Anything else will be setting a country on a slippery slope. Like Tanzanai demanding obscene taxes from Acacia.

We have to respect and honour international financial obligations. Anglo leasing was paid for that. There are innocent buyers of debts out there - and people want to trust contracts.

You refuse to pay - and you'll never borrow.


Offline veritas

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #42 on: August 08, 2019, 04:40:09 PM »
Actually, international contracts don't necessarily need to be upheld- this is a gamble international investors make but if someone in Kenya doesn't honor the agreement then there's nothing to enforce this agreement in Kenya. I'm starting to make sense of
the perpetual loss ODM experiences politically. ODM values customary law and treats agreements like MoUs with reciprocity, whereas the current coalition treats contracts like toilet paper the same way the West treat international contracts. Loot and loot.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2019, 09:16:37 PM »
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #44 on: August 09, 2019, 02:22:38 AM »
Empty sloganeering.Socialist state doesn't have a private sector.Here we are talking public investment in infrastructure through long term debt.We are shifting the conversation from Eurobond to Century bonds like Ghana
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #45 on: August 09, 2019, 09:03:18 AM »
Ghana is now a role model  :(
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #46 on: August 09, 2019, 09:53:32 AM »
Yes the fastest growing economy in the world this year.
Ghana is now a role model  :(

Offline Kadudu

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #47 on: August 10, 2019, 01:11:01 AM »
Yes the fastest growing economy in the world this year

Ghana started exporting oil some years back and within three years had to release Eurobonds in order to fix the holes in its budget. Bad example of how to run an economy.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #48 on: August 10, 2019, 11:37:44 AM »
Ghana has been growing rapidly except few years when growth dropped to 4% (our normal) - otherwise they have grown at near 10%  - and are going to become a middle income country soon.Zambia and Ghana pioneered floating Eurobond   - and now we need to go big - go for 50 yr or 100yr loan.
Ghana started exporting oil some years back and within three years had to release Eurobonds in order to fix the holes in its budget. Bad example of how to run an economy.

Offline hk

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #49 on: August 11, 2019, 10:17:08 AM »
Ghana growth from 2013 to 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/ghana-economic-growth-slows-in-2018-as-oil-expansion-cools in 2018 ghana gdp growth was 6.3% vs kenya 6.1% . What's eerily similar is ghana borrowing and spending in 2013 before crashing to 2.9% and 2.2% growth before IMF bailout to Kenya GDP growth and debt now. Ghana is a commodity driven economy.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #50 on: August 11, 2019, 11:31:51 AM »
Yes but it's not only Ghana who have done this. Most developed country we know of developed by tapping the near bottomless international debt market - with investors happy to get 1 or 2% per annum.
 
We began as country from depending on Aid from Britain, then we started borrowing small loans from IMF & WB, then WB/IMF became political tools for US & Europeans - and we had to build domestic debt market, China also happened with IMF/WB like loans, and then we realized we were crowding domestic debt market & we didn't have to beg IMF/WB, and have started floating Eurobonds.

Now we need to think like Ghana ...and start taking HUGE 50 or 100 yrs loans. It's no brainer for me. With such monies...we can bridge the infrastructure deficit...and grow the economy at double digit.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ghana-bond/update-1-ghana-may-issue-50-bln-century-bond-president-idUSL8N1VP1BJ

Ghana growth from 2013 to 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/ghana-economic-growth-slows-in-2018-as-oil-expansion-cools in 2018 ghana gdp growth was 6.3% vs kenya 6.1% . What's eerily similar is ghana borrowing and spending in 2013 before crashing to 2.9% and 2.2% growth before IMF bailout to Kenya GDP growth and debt now. Ghana is a commodity driven economy.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #51 on: August 11, 2019, 11:38:24 AM »
Even someone in UK is lamenting why they can't issues such long-dated bonds?
https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2019/07/12/will-the-uk-issue-a-century-bond/

Offline hk

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #52 on: August 11, 2019, 07:12:28 PM »
Yes but it's not only Ghana who have done this. Most developed country we know of developed by tapping the near bottomless international debt market - with investors happy to get 1 or 2% per annum.
 
We began as country from depending on Aid from Britain, then we started borrowing small loans from IMF & WB, then WB/IMF became political tools for US & Europeans - and we had to build domestic debt market, China also happened with IMF/WB like loans, and then we realized we were crowding domestic debt market & we didn't have to beg IMF/WB, and have started floating Eurobonds.

Now we need to think like Ghana ...and start taking HUGE 50 or 100 yrs loans. It's no brainer for me. With such monies...we can bridge the infrastructure deficit...and grow the economy at double digit.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ghana-bond/update-1-ghana-may-issue-50-bln-century-bond-president-idUSL8N1VP1BJ

Ghana growth from 2013 to 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/ghana-economic-growth-slows-in-2018-as-oil-expansion-cools in 2018 ghana gdp growth was 6.3% vs kenya 6.1% . What's eerily similar is ghana borrowing and spending in 2013 before crashing to 2.9% and 2.2% growth before IMF bailout to Kenya GDP growth and debt now. Ghana is a commodity driven economy.
There are no investors willing to lend to poor african countries at a rate of 1-2%. Ghana 31yr bond has interest of 9% and if they go for 50yr it'll be in the 11-12% ballpark. Bottom line we need to produce  more stuff, from commodities to finished goods. Its counterproductive to borrow heavily raising interest rates, taxes and debt, hampering the productivity that the said infrastructure is suppose to facilitate. Its like a farmer spending all his money to build a barn and  have no money left to farm.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #53 on: August 11, 2019, 07:29:41 PM »
Hk, but locally we are happy to float treasury bonds at those rates.The only risk I see is exogenous FX risk.If they give us 100b for 10%.. that way better than borrowing the same domestically..and just mark timming.This would injection of FDI...and if we tie to infrastructure it will pay for itself.We cannot force the current generation to fund a rail line that will last 200yrs.That is robbing the present to fund future.Most of public investment are long term in nature.My theory there is a lot of money out there just waiting to be grabbed...stupid silicon valley companies are snapping them.. African countries with real assets have to beg imf or Chinese.I am happy jubilee pioneered Eurobond like Moi built the domestic market..we need to go big and plug the infrastructure deficit...build superhighways, expressways, mega cities and really dream big.Worse case we default..they cannot unplug the roads, the rails .Greece or Argentina still pretty decent and developed .We will dictate to them..take or leave.So we got no risk.. except the risk of dreaming big.I know Ruto will do this.

Offline hk

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #54 on: August 11, 2019, 08:08:33 PM »
Hk, but locally we are happy to float treasury bonds at those rates.The only risk I see is exogenous FX risk.If they give us 100b for 10%.. that way better than borrowing the same domestically..and just mark timming.This would injection of FDI...and if we tie to infrastructure it will pay for itself.We cannot force the current generation to fund a rail line that will last 200yrs.That is robbing the present to fund future.Most of public investment are long term in nature.My theory there is a lot of money out there just waiting to be grabbed...stupid silicon valley companies are snapping them.. African countries with real assets have to beg imf or Chinese.I am happy jubilee pioneered Eurobond like Moi built the domestic market..we need to go big and plug the infrastructure deficit...build superhighways, expressways, mega cities and really dream big.Worse case we default..they cannot unplug the roads, the rails .Greece or Argentina still pretty decent and developed .We will dictate to them..take or leave.So we got no risk.. except the risk of dreaming big.I know Ruto will do this.
Greece and argentina were plenty developed before defaulting. Kenya treasury bill rates for 10yr is about 12%. The government should be working to lower this to about 5%. Which means cutting budget deficit, borrowing etc. This would ensure even internationally you'd borrow at lower rate. Start with that and the economy would take off and actually start generating enough revenue to service debts. There's nothing like infrastructure deficit, we have a production deficit.  Even worse all those eurobonds aren't ringfenced for specific projects, so we end up with fungible funds that are misused. Ruto like you believes in government, he's a typical fiscally liberal politician, his policy would be heavy spending to show a tangible thing as an accomplishment. Something like reducing unemployment and raising productivity would be very low on his list. That'd be a disaster just like the one we're witnessing with Uhuru.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #55 on: August 11, 2019, 08:39:07 PM »
Hk development is very straight forward at our level of underdevelopment.More often you prescribe solutions that would work in mature economies.Here it's common sensical low hanging fruit.Yes Ruto get like Eisnseworth got in 1950s and before that when most of US infrastructure was laid down.When is last time us build an expressway or rail...very long time ago.Your kibaki tricke down economics were unanimously rejected in 2007 even by the unschooled.Jubilee won relection by bigger margin than in 2013.That is HUGE.kibaki is a piece of shiet.After Moi even a corpse would have turned Kenya fortunes .Moi will always be better than piece of shirt of kibaki.In fullness of time kibaki will be footnote .Yes was kibaki was brilliant but sadly he was a vegetable by time he was pork.Even Lucy knew he was done.How can you grow economy and get rejected in 2005 and 2007.If election are held now Jubilee will win third term unopposed.That is why NASA folded camp.From zero tarmac or electricity to what we got now.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #56 on: August 11, 2019, 10:47:50 PM »
Hk development is very straight forward at our level of underdevelopment.More often you prescribe solutions that would work in mature economies.Here it's common sensical low hanging fruit.Yes Ruto get like Eisnseworth got in 1950s and before that when most of US infrastructure was laid down.When is last time us build an expressway or rail...very long time ago.Your kibaki tricke down economics were unanimously rejected in 2007 even by the unschooled.Jubilee won relection by bigger margin than in 2013.That is HUGE.kibaki is a piece of shiet.After Moi even a corpse would have turned Kenya fortunes .Moi will always be better than piece of shirt of kibaki.In fullness of time kibaki will be footnote .Yes was kibaki was brilliant but sadly he was a vegetable by time he was pork.Even Lucy knew he was done.How can you grow economy and get rejected in 2005 and 2007.If election are held now Jubilee will win third term unopposed.That is why NASA folded camp.From zero tarmac or electricity to what we got now.

Kibaki will be remembered for FPE and infrastructure expansion that Jubilee copied ingenuously. Don't conflate political incompetence with economics. Ruto or Jubilee is a great political mobilizer - Moi too won despite rock-bottom growth. I agree we have infrastructure deficit - what we disagree on is priorities. We have other deficits - capital deficit, automation deficit, and definitely manpower deficit. The demographic dividend will bridge the manpower deficit - followed by the capital deficit as earning, savings, spending and taxes balloon. Demand for infrastructure like the SGR will come organically. Metro train or subway would be wonderful in place of the SGR - with definite returns - cause people would happily avoid the traffic jams in towns. There is actual demand for infrastructure there. You can literally count the $$ saved by solving commute hours for working class - while you struggle to give us stories about future 50-100 years - after you long gave up tabling ROI projections.

Kibaki had high marginal utility from the Moi mess. Jubilee growth formula is very imprudent.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #57 on: August 11, 2019, 11:18:40 PM »
Robina, the conversation before she, was it cost a container 1000 USD from China to Mombasa, 8000kms long, same cost it cost from Nairobi to Mombasa.That conversation to be had.

Offline hk

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #58 on: August 12, 2019, 06:05:48 AM »
Hk development is very straight forward at our level of underdevelopment.More often you prescribe solutions that would work in mature economies.Here it's common sensical low hanging fruit.Yes Ruto get like Eisnseworth got in 1950s and before that when most of US infrastructure was laid down.When is last time us build an expressway or rail...very long time ago.Your kibaki tricke down economics were unanimously rejected in 2007 even by the unschooled.Jubilee won relection by bigger margin than in 2013.That is HUGE.kibaki is a piece of shiet.After Moi even a corpse would have turned Kenya fortunes .Moi will always be better than piece of shirt of kibaki.In fullness of time kibaki will be footnote .Yes was kibaki was brilliant but sadly he was a vegetable by time he was pork.Even Lucy knew he was done.How can you grow economy and get rejected in 2005 and 2007.If election are held now Jubilee will win third term unopposed.That is why NASA folded camp.From zero tarmac or electricity to what we got now.
Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
 were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services.  Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc. 

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff
« Reply #59 on: August 12, 2019, 08:57:28 AM »
Who said we will just throw away the money. We will build metro line in Nairobi - needs about 1-2B dollars. We will also build mega dams to provide water to everyone  and sewage services to all towns (We probably need 50 mega dams to serve all residents....and each probably cost anything upto 0.5B dollars). We will also build expressways connecting Malaba to Mombasa & Namanga to Isiolo- Maybe Busia to Mau Sumit--definitely build a roads in Northern Kenya- that may required maybe 5B dollars. We will also build coal plants and nuclear plants to provide cheap energy if need be. We will build connect all the 47 counties with freeways. We will spend the 20B dollars need to open up the north via LAPSSET. So you see we badly need that 100B now....and there is so much money in the international markets...we just need to ask!

In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our road & bridges - to move from shamefully 15-20% of paved roads to 90%
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our rails (metro, light, mono rail) - to move from shamefully 3,000kms of rails to say 30,000kms - including light rails in major towns.
In short  - we need to spend say 25B dollars on WATSAN (dams & supply)- so everyone in kenya can have clean piped water and all the shiet can be hygienical stored & treated.
In short   - We have moved electricity coverage to respectfully 75% ( I think it's lower than that  - we will see in Census) - but we need to invest billions dollars in cheaper and reliable sources.
In short  -  We need to spend on public facilities - schools,hospitals,  - etc.

After we have done that - we can now resort to trying to grow the economy  - by improving productivity, efficiency, social spending, interest rates manipulation, - your kind of thing - fiscal and monetary policies  - bla bla - software issues.

But BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST. We need to nail the hardware.


Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
 were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services.  Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc. 
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 09:58:19 AM by RV Pundit »