Tyranny of numbers on sinking ground

[patel]

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Buyers remorse for electing international criminals ..by ngugi thiongo...."Today President Uhuru Kenyatta has made it clear that before you allege that something has been stolen, you must have evidence thereof. Now, I remember on 5th Jan, 2015, my Phone was grabbed from my hand by some thug along Haile Selassie Avenue and the thief quickly rushed with all the evidence. I posted here on Facebook that my phone had been stolen and I also told a good number of my friends that my phone had been stolen. I also went ahead and instructed Safaricom to disable my number and went to police station to obtain an abstract. All these without an evidence, yet everyone would believe that indeed my phone had been stolen; One because, I didn't have it with me and Two because, they couldn't also prove that it wasn't stolen.
Now, according to Uhuru, if a thief come into your house and steal your Television as you watch, you shouldn't tell people that it was stolen unless you had some videos or pictures capturing the thief stealing it. You shouldn't ask for investigation to be done since you didn't obtain evidence. And because you can't tell where the thief has hidden it.
Today I've learnt something new, a man can have a head and fail to use it."

[Globalcitizen12]

discontent is there it now a matter of getting a candidate in Central to hive off some vote out of Uhuru basket and we can see a run off

[RVtitem]

Patel,

I believe western diplomats are also protecting their interests in kenya. They do not want to risk losing market for their manufactured goods and source of raw materials. They have already lost ground to Chinaman.

If they really were honest, then they could have assisted africa in reparations and reparations.

Welcome to this part of the world Mr. Patel, I noticed you resignation from sewer.com!!

[RV Pundit]

That some wishful extrapolation. Central kenya or RV folks (the bedrock of his support) can differ with Uhuru on several issues but that doesn't translate into them supporting CORD. In my considered view, UhuRuto have done a great job to hold onto their majority in both houses of parliament and elsewhere. Kibaki didn't last 2 yrs before his NARC coalition unraveled. Raila's ODM didn't last 1yr before it was raptured.

The two guys have done a commendable job and are sleep walking into another election.

And it obvious...Uhuru and Ruto have kept their political bargains...the power has been shared as per their MOU...there has been goodwill and friendship btw the coalition parties.

As of now....UhuRuto have already won 2017...that happened long time ago when Ruto decided he was going to support Uhuru for 2nd term.

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit,
All the two need to do is lose 800K votes in their strong holds and this thing goes to round 2 making it anyone's game. Do you think the level of corruption is not anything to be worried about and something that voters can revolt due to

[RV Pundit]

And you think loosing 800K vote is easy. That is the entire Kamba vote. or if you go county by county..those are 4 or 5 counties. I just don't see how Jubilee can be beaten. It the same drill. But now with benefit of incumbency. This thing was over before it started. Maybe some dynamics will change but so far Jubilee is more than intact...meaning they are assured of 50% support they had last time.

Pundit,
All the two need to do is lose 800K votes in their strong holds and this thing goes to round 2 making it anyone's game. Do you think the level of corruption is not anything to be worried about and something that voters can revolt due to

[Globalcitizen12]

You are right.. Uhuru gets a second term and I think Ruto becomes President in 2022. Corruption should be legalized so that we can all partake

[RV Pundit]

1.5yrs in politics in a long time. CORD have to hope Jubilee sort of implode. If it doesn't, then it going to be impossible task for them. Whatever Jubilee will lose, they will make it up through incumbency/patronage. As for corruption....everyone is in it.

You are right.. Uhuru gets a second term and I think Ruto becomes President in 2022. Corruption should be legalized so that we can all partake

[Globalcitizen12]

What if two counties in Central revolt against Uhuru it appears like Nyeri and Muranga can revolt

[RV Pundit]

I think you've been out of kenya for such a long time buddy. Well, possible, but highly improbable.

What if two counties in Central revolt against Uhuru it appears like Nyeri and Muranga can revolt

[Globalcitizen12]

Hehe agreed. I think your boys win another 20 years of uninterrupted ruling. Wow that is game changer knowing there is no way out politically especially for opposition. The difference is 800K votes but like you pointed out it is a hard gap to breach in place like Kenya where tribal loyalty rules

[Omollo]

My friend Pundit has become less and less objective. We have polls showing Uhuru losing ground in Central and around the country. We know that some engineering was done to get a win in the first round and we also know the roles of Devil MaDvD and Ngilu to snatch votes from CORD.

800K Kamba votes can't be lost?!!! I want to know how Uhuru will claim even a few votes in Ukambani with the two leading Kamba demagogues united against him? And nobody tell me Alfred Mutua will bring votes before he explains why Raphael Tuju failed to deliver even his own wife's vote to Kibaki! Mutua owes his position to Kalonzo and he's already on notice. Like Tuju he wants to polish his retirement package as he heads home in to oblivion. If CORD gets to power he will probably join Mwiraria in KNH to hide from arrest and prosecution for blatant theft.

Uhuru has got this silly idea that if he buys discredited politicians, then he has votes in the areas they come from. Marende is supposed to bring Luhya (Nyore) votes. Never mind that the man owes his Parliamentary and later Speaker post to Raila who remains extremely popular in the area (review Presidential elections 2013 for evidence). Other rejects include Soita Shitanda, Raphael Wanjala, Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa, Balala, Gideon Mung'aro, etc.The Bungoma governor who had to make a deal with CORD to win the seat now is his own man promising Uhuru votes.

Frankly, I have no idea where Uhuru will get votes outside Central. RV vote will be less than 2013 and that you can take to the bank. Kalenjins have just seen through the trickery of Uhuru and his tribe and will not buy the 2022 LIE. I doubt that Ruto will support Uhuru come 2017. It is NOT in his interests for Uhuru to get a second term

[RV Pundit]

To be fair, CORD have also held their coalition tightly (Kalonzo's maybe 50-50 and has not like WSR declared support for Raila 2017 bid--so there is war there --) and they may take some votes off MaDVD/Amani. In short, if election are held today, I think Jubilee wins with the same or more votes.

Hehe agreed. I think your boys win another 20 years of uninterrupted ruling. Wow that is game changer knowing there is no way out politically especially for opposition. The difference is 800K votes but like you pointed out it is a hard gap to breach in place like Kenya where tribal loyalty rules

[Globalcitizen12]

what if there is voter apathy in central I doubt the middle class will line up to vote for uhuru tena?

[RV Pundit]

Well let just says we disagree on this. First I think Jubilee have managed to hold onto their tribal coalition. The major headache was Ruto backing Uhuru....that was granted without asking!.

I just don't see where CORD can take Jubilee votes. CORD will struggle to keep their votes if anything but maybe attract more Luhyas ( I think they got 60%?). The guys in trouble maybe MaDVD. But with Wetangula possibly going for early retirement.....bukusu are in for a ride...and then you have both Bungoma and Tranzoia...having to deal with sizeable Kalenjin/Kikuyu votes..and that is where governors and mps from those areas..will make deal with Jubilee.

In short, however much you dice it, the situation remains largely as it were in 2013. Nothing has CHANGED.

My friend Pundit has become less and less objective. We have polls showing Uhuru losing ground in Central and around the country. We know that some engineering was done to get a win in the first round and we also know the roles of Devil MaDvD and Ngilu to snatch votes from CORD.

800K Kamba votes can't be lost?!!! I want to know how Uhuru will claim even a few votes in Ukambani with the two leading Kamba demagogues united against him? And nobody tell me Alfred Mutua will bring votes before he explains why Raphael Tuju failed to deliver even his own wife's vote to Kibaki! Mutua owes his position to Kalonzo and he's already on notice. Like Tuju he wants to polish his retirement package as he heads home in to oblivion. If CORD gets to power he will probably join Mwiraria in KNH to hide from arrest and prosecution for blatant theft.

Uhuru has got this silly idea that if he buys discredited politicians, then he has votes in the areas they come from. Marende is supposed to bring Luhya (Nyore) votes. Never mind that the man owes his Parliamentary and later Speaker post to Raila who remains extremely popular in the area (review Presidential elections 2013 for evidence). Other rejects include Soita Shitanda, Raphael Wanjala, Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa, Balala, Gideon Mung'aro, etc.The Bungoma governor who had to make a deal with CORD to win the seat now is his own man promising Uhuru votes.

Frankly, I have no idea where Uhuru will get votes outside Central. RV vote will be less than 2013 and that you can take to the bank. Kalenjins have just seen through the trickery of Uhuru and his tribe and will not buy the 2022 LIE. I doubt that Ruto will support Uhuru come 2017. It is NOT in his interests for Uhuru to get a second term

[RV Pundit]

You're kidding right, what is more important for Central middle class than having PORK. Maybe in 2022 they will not vote Ruto. But for 2017 stop the wishful thinking. Kikuyus will vote 99% for Uhuru and will turn out in great numbers. And so will everyone in Kenya. I think turn out is going to be bigger than 2013.

what if there is voter apathy in central I doubt the middle class will line up to vote for uhuru tena?

[Globalcitizen12]

I do not think any turn out will surpass 2013.. Let us bet if it does I will donate to charity of your choice 2K and you do the same to a charity of my choice if you lose

Look at Turn out in Kiambu. I think Middle Class will sit this one out like they did in 2007 leading to Kibaki getting a whopping

[RV Pundit]

I think devolution is going to bring more votes....it mbig deal...even in Turkana or Mandera. Having to manage 10-20B annually...is going to motivate potential governors to get all the votes out there.

I do not think any turn out will surpass 2013.. Let us bet if it does I will donate to charity of your choice 2K and you do the same to a charity of my choice if you lose

[RV Pundit]

Kibaki lost in 2007 for failing to craft a tribal coalition big enough to win. He only had GEMA and maybe Bukusus.

I do not think any turn out will surpass 2013.. Let us bet if it does I will donate to charity of your choice 2K and you do the same to a charity of my choice if you lose

Look at Turn out in Kiambu. I think Middle Class will sit this one out like they did in 2007 leading to Kibaki getting a whopping

[Globalcitizen12]

Governor and MP races in most places will be decided during party nomination stage so they wont be a factor in PORK race. Only Nairobi and Mombasa Governorship wont be decided until after final count. Right now Kidero has a headstart so is Joho but if they will have to fight jubilee candidates