Tyranny of numbers on sinking ground

[RV Pundit]

I don't think so. Even in 2013, it was not like that. It was bloodbath including in Nyanza with likes Obado winning in some unknown party, the same in Nyeri and many other places. Governor is big deal. It cannot be decided in fake primaries. It has to go to the wire. It will attract guys with really sizeable resources to fight it out.

Governor and MP races in most places will be decided during party nomination stage so they wont be a factor in PORK race. Only Nairobi and Mombasa Governorship wont be decided until after final count. Right now Kidero has a headstart so is Joho but if they will have to fight jubilee candidates

[Globalcitizen12]

which counties that have a Non CORD or Jubilee Governor? Less than 4
Here is the voter turnout for Kenyan Elections
http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?CountryCode=KE

If anyone in Central secure JAP ticket they win even the affliate parties candidates will win like Gachagua did in Nyeri

[Omollo]

If Kalonzo concedes to Raila this early, CORD would lose votes to Jubilee or even any Kamba politician who goes for the Presidency. It is strategic for Kalonzo, Wetangula and others to keep presidential hopes alive to give CORD maximum advantage. What you call war is really mobilization and consolidation of votes

To be fair, CORD have also held their coalition tightly (Kalonzo's maybe 50-50 and has not like WSR declared support for Raila 2017 bid--so there is war there --) and they may take some votes off MaDVD/Amani. In short, if election are held today, I think Jubilee wins with the same or more votes.

Hehe agreed. I think your boys win another 20 years of uninterrupted ruling. Wow that is game changer knowing there is no way out politically especially for opposition. The difference is 800K votes but like you pointed out it is a hard gap to breach in place like Kenya where tribal loyalty rules

[Globalcitizen12]

[RV Pundit]

Make senses. But if we are heading to election with essentially the same configuration as 2013 but Uhuru now PORK, what chances do CORD really have? Sort of radically registering more votes in their stronghold, I don't see how this will turn out any differently.

I'll put my money on Uhuru winning If it were held today. Raila and CORD have to work harder.

If Kalonzo concedes to Raila this early, CORD would lose votes to Jubilee or even any Kamba politician who goes for the Presidency. It is strategic for Kalonzo, Wetangula and others to keep presidential hopes alive to give CORD maximum advantage. What you call war is really mobilization and consolidation of votes

[RV Pundit]

Best case for CORD is to take MaDVD 4%. That takes their numbers to 47%. That is assuming they can keep their coalition. That is going to be very hard because you can expect Uhuru has PORK to have far more patronage to dish out deals.

[Globalcitizen12]

CORD gets Martha Karua and Dida 1% too so it 48% I am also banking on 4% Jubilee staying home because of not being satisfied by Jubilee performance

[RV Pundit]

Okay. We have about 1.5yrs to watch the political scene and make more accurate predictions. For now CORD have to vanguish MaDVD who is crawling from among the deaths..and somehow hope Wetangula can keep the luhya (bukusu) fire burning...then hope Kambas don't split. Jubilee has to hope Ruto will deliver RV. Uhuru will get "all" GEMA votes.

CORD gets Martha Karua and Dida 1% too so it 48% I am also banking on 4% Jubilee staying home because of not being satisfied by Jubilee performance

[Globalcitizen12]

still early By next year June we will know

what would happen in scenario where Raila passes away would Orengo Join Uhuru and Kalonzo Join Ruto.. I think Raila health makes him the greatest wildcard. Raila has serious diabetes and I do not think he fully recovered for aneurysm he suffered in 2008.Does Bonny Khalawele carry any weight in West.. What is the value of Ababu?

[Georgesoros]

Ngugi was Never a Uhuru supporter

[patel]

Uhuru lost a very big constituency when he lost most teachers and their families.  Most gema and kalenjin folks are waking up to uhuru failed presidency.  Talk to people or browse sites and you will notice the tide has turned but will that translate into votes? If Peter keneth runs in 2017 he will surely dent uhuru numbers. What if in 2017 there will be a kalenjin presidential candidate? 
In the end what will be Jubilee reelection platform? 

[MOON Ki]

We have polls showing Uhuru losing ground in Central and around the country.

Meaningless polls.  Who do you think the people in Central will vote for in 2017?    You think they will abandon their own man and vote for Raila or Kalonzo or another?

[MOON Ki]

If Peter keneth runs in 2017 he will surely dent uhuru numbers.

How much denting did he do in 2013?   Uhuru got 6.2 million votes; Kenneth got 0.072 million.    He had the crap beaten out of him even in his own Gatanga!

[Globalcitizen12]

Raila had 5% of votes in central may be from Westerners living there and a few principled Kikuyus. Raila needs to increase this number by 3 percent and he has a chance against Uhuru nationally

[Pajero]

Uhuru will not let it go 2017,NEVER,This is Africa and incubents dont go home easily,most likely we may have a re run but Uhuruto will squeeze through at whichever cost unless CORD registers over 1.5 million new voters more than Jubilee.
2022 will be the epic battle and last for Raila.Uhuru will be exiting,Ruto will be vying hoping to get kikuyu votes,Peter Kenneth will have matured as GEMA candidate.e will have too many presidential candidates,Wetangula,Kalonzo,Mudavadi,Mutua,Munya,Oparanya,Ruto,Keneth,Raila, all will be on ballot.First round will be between Raila and Kenneth.As to who wins round 2,i dont know.RV will revolt big.

[Globalcitizen12]

Raila will be 82 then and in bad shape like his dad diabetes will have decimated his organs. I wonder why Raila still drinks liquor at his age and health

[Pajero]

Unfortunately in Kenya age is never an issue,its tribal cards.Someone once said even a dog dressed in some colours will be voted.

[Globalcitizen12]

Raila at 82 will be like ole ntimama no one but his core  county will hang on his coat tails

[Pajero]

Moi would have won in 2002 had it not been the constitutional limitation,the same to Kibaki in 2013.This is Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah 2022 may be more interesting. The way things are...Uhuru just seem to have all the handles on 2017. Ruto will become PORK if and only IF UHURU wants him. If Uhuru wants Ruto as pork, all he has to do is to resign few months to elections, and let Ruto ran as incumbent.

Ruto has to squeeze such a deal..that ensure Ruto becomes PORK the last 6 or 3 months to 2022....with DPORK from GEMA. That is all Ruto need to become PORK for 10yrs.

Uhuru will not let it go 2017,NEVER,This is Africa and incubents dont go home easily,most likely we may have a re run but Uhuruto will squeeze through at whichever cost unless CORD registers over 1.5 million new voters more than Jubilee.
2022 will be the epic battle and last for Raila.Uhuru will be exiting,Ruto will be vying hoping to get kikuyu votes,Peter Kenneth will have matured as GEMA candidate.e will have too many presidential candidates,Wetangula,Kalonzo,Mudavadi,Mutua,Munya,Oparanya,Ruto,Keneth,Raila, all will be on ballot.First round will be between Raila and Kenneth.As to who wins round 2,i dont know.RV will revolt big.