Okay looking forward to it. I have put Ruto at 35% in Ukambani and Gusii. I suspect he will do surprisingly better in Ukambani. Gusii he may suffer because he doesnt have good counter leader to Matiangi-Ongwae-Arati - but he has ground support and Gusii are generally very quarrelsome people who are hard to herd into one way. I try to watch opinion polls, top politician and understand the local issues.
Bungoma is Kalenjin 10% - then Bukusu like 80% - Tachoni like 10%. I believe Bukusu have bought into Ruto. Ruto could go even as high as 80% percent. 70 percent is bare minimum. Almost all opinion polls agree that Bungoma long flipped.
Tranzoia is bit complicated - it's 55% Luhyas - 35% Kalenjin - 10% others (kikuyus, gusii, turkana, etc).
Now the Luhyas of Tranzoia are bit complicated - Bukusu are still the majority - but we have all other Luhyas too. So Bukusu are hard on Ruto - but other Luhyas outside Maragoli are soft on Ruto. For example Gumo is Banyala. Wekesa I dont is not Bukusu. Bukusu dominate the areas of Tranzoia around Bungoma all the way to Likuyani (in Kakamega)
So I would go for half Luhyas of Tranzoia - 25% with probably additional 5-10% because Bukusu are the majority - 30-35% - Raila will get 20-25% - and 5% from others.
Ruto will get Kalenjin 35% plus 30-35% plus 5% of others - so you it's roughly 70 percent - highs of 75% - lows of 65%. Raila will do 25-35%.
Tranzoia - and upper Kakamega (Likuyani & Lugari) - Luhyas of Turbo and even Nandi - are admixture of Luhyas - so you can expect they will play 50-50 as it appears the Luo leaning Luhyas are hard on Raila - while the Bukusu-Maragoli-Kabras- Tachonis are hard on Ruto.
Remember when dealing with Busia - Luhyas are like 70% with Iteso at 30%. Ruto has 50% of Iteso - last time they elected two URP Mps. Ruto has a struggle amongst the Luo leaning Luhyas (Banyala, Samia & Marachi) - but ANC will assist Ruto to score 15% from Luhya stock - and so Ruto will do 30-35% of Busia.
Vihiga is 55-60% Maragoli: 25-30% Bunyore; 10-15% - MaDVD have maragoli - Raila has the rest.
Kakamega - is very complicated - but generally Ruto has upper kakamega - Raila has the lower kakamega - the central kakamega is split 50-50.
I'm also cooking my final, the big difference between our figures are in Ukambani, Western and Gusii. I think yours are too optimistic for K.K.
I got a question on two related counties, Trans Nzoia and Bungoma.
If Bungoma is at 30 - 70, Trans Nzoia should be higher than that for D.P, or if thats the figure for Trans Nzoia, then Bungoma should be lower.
Happy Hunting!
