Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on April 13, 2016, 10:14:28 PM
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I watch Kiriro Wa Ngugi and I am left scratching my head. Is Kiriro utterly clueless or did the GoK simply not give a damn about better alternatives? Are Kenyans able to utilize information to their advantage or are we just helpless prisoners of political/tribal/corruption agendas?
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detractor..we have to build so that the cargo can come.. Ndii calls it Cargo mentality. Now let us see who the capacity will be utilized. Another behemoth Government owned Enterprise is in offing to start draining treasury year in year out. RVR could not turn a profit even with all the help it could get from Kibaki cronyism
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In all fairness this project was started by kibaki/Raila admin. Uhuru hasn't really come up with any serious projects. This is more a long term project that will benefit when the economy grows -20yrs.
In my opinions a nrb-ksm dual carriage way will benefit the rift and the west.
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SGR is water under the bridge. It past 70% completion mark. Now it going to snake it way to Naivasha then Narok then Bomet to Kissi then Kisumu and finally Malaba. This is trans-formative project.
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This is very tragic. There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour. Obviously this captain of industry does not know that. Ukabila is finishing Kenya...
There are people with better knowledge of the rail industry than this thicko. Mr Mutoko could have done a better job..
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeurWeIW4AIDsmu.jpg:large)
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This is very tragic. There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour. Obviously this captain of industry does not know that. Ukabila is finishing Kenya...
There are people with better knowledge of the rail industry than this thicko. Mr Mutoko could have done a better job..
So he was wrong about the diesel trains. What about the rest of it? Did he make sense in his arguments about refurbishing the meter gauge? I am not sure how ukabila comes into the man's presentation; he didn't indulge in any politics.
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I watch Kiriro Wa Ngugi and I am left scratching my head. Is Kiriro utterly clueless or did the GoK simply not give a damn about better alternatives? Are Kenyans able to utilize information to their advantage or are we just helpless prisoners of political/tribal/corruption agendas?
We cannot even answer either of those questions, because of reasons that are implicit in the second question. A sort of "meta" thing ....
As the EAC's Japanese consultant said: "Your obsession with gauge is misplaced. After you spend all that money, your trains will be slower than what we have on narrow gauge lines that are older than yours. Why not just work with what you have, but learn to maintain it?". And Kiriro has a related point: nobody wants to move cargo particularly fast. In Japan, the longest 130 kph line is used for cargo, on a line parallel to a "bullet rain line", although there is one passenger train for people who wish to take their time (dark-night, touchy-feely on a train etc.)
The other interesting point I picked up from a quick listening was on Chinese idea for costs on passenger tickets. Once the Chinese were told a different number, they came to their own conclusions on profitability. WHACK! That's the sound from the insurance cost they put on the loans (in case the line makes no money). Compare that insurance cost with the interest on the loan.
Seeing as you live in the USA, this might interest you. In order to move to standard gauge, the USA took a most logical approach: Given that gauge is simply the distance between rails, in order to change gauge, why not just pick one side of the railway line and move it by a few inches to the left? And they did exactly that---about 12,000 miles in two (yes, two) days! In 1886.
The middle of this debate: http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3
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In all fairness this project was started by kibaki/Raila admin. Uhuru hasn't really come up with any serious projects. This is more a long term project that will benefit when the economy grows -20yrs.
In my opinions a nrb-ksm dual carriage way will benefit the rift and the west.
Not quite. At the time Raila/Kibaki were getting ready to pack up and go, there were at least two clear options: (a) refurbish the existing lines, and (b) SGR. Uhuru could just as easily have chosen (a) instead of running off to borrow huge sums.
20 years? Maintenance: how long, post-1963, did it the old lines to go to the dogs?
Growing economy? I've looked at most of the relevant data---and least what's readily available---and I'd be interested in seeing any reasonable projections that show that growth in cargo (based on economic growth) will allow the railway to run at anything other than a loss.
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There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour.
I think I missed something here. The point is?
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I watch Kiriro Wa Ngugi and I am left scratching my head. Is Kiriro utterly clueless or did the GoK simply not give a damn about better alternatives? Are Kenyans able to utilize information to their advantage or are we just helpless prisoners of political/tribal/corruption agendas?
We cannot even answer either of those questions, because of reasons that are implicit in the second question. A sort of "meta" thing ....
As the EAC's Japanese consultant said: "Your obsession with gauge is misplaced. After you spend all that money, your trains will be slower than what we have on narrow gauge lines that are older than yours. Why not just work with what you have, but learn to maintain it?". And Kiriro has a related point: nobody wants to move cargo particularly fast. In Japan, the longest 130 kph line is used for cargo, on a line parallel to a "bullet rain line", although there is one passenger train for people who wish to take their time (dark-night, touchy-feely on a train etc.)
Seeing as you live in the USA, this might interest you. In order to move to standard gauge, the USA took a most logical approach: Given that gauge is simply the distance between rails, in order to change gauge, why not just pick one side of the railway line and move it by a few inches to the left? And they did exactly that---about 12,000 miles in two (yes, two days)! In 1886.
The middle of this debate: http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3 (http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3)
I think they have heard of these options. It should be obvious they have. I find it hard to believe otherwise. Why choose SGR? Maybe they think it is transformational, even if they cannot put a finger on why? That it is better than the other options even if they cannot quite explain why. Or, something you can never rule out in Kenya, it is just easier to eat from SGR.
The example about USA standard gauge is intriguing. In that case they were reducing the gauge, so they did not have to worry about running out of crosstie space. Still it makes a lot of sense. The challenges would be on the curves, where you might have to add or chip off sections; probably minor given that they were able to pull this off with 19th century manual labor.
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The example about USA standard gauge is intriguing. In that case they were reducing the gauge, so they did not have to worry about running out of crosstie space.
True; I was primarily thinking of: (a) working on "top" of the existing line, and (b) how impressive the feat was.
As to the practicalities, I once went to look at a railway line, wondering what it would take to extend gauge by moving one line little to the left and the other line a little to the right. The better and more practical alternative seemed to be to add a third rail, ... and then lost interest.
Or, something you can never rule out in Kenya, it is just easier to eat from SGR.
Bingo!
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Ignoring the postmortem issues (sgr is snaking its way); which data did you look into? The last I heard Mombasa port was the forth busiest port in Africa and is moving more than 1M containers annually.
Growing economy? I've looked at most of the relevant data---and least what's readily available---and I'd be interested in seeing any reasonable projections that show that growth in cargo (based on economic growth) will allow the railway to run at anything other than a loss.
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MGR is locked under 25yrs concession by both Kenya and Uganda gov. A concession that was badly designed by World Bank and Kibaki folks. GoK had the options of messy cancellation...but Uganda need to agree..or build a brand new line....
The brand new line except for Mombasa-Nairobi will not pass the same route with old line..it goes to Naivasha to Narok to Bomet to Sondu to Kisumu...so this line is going to open another corridor.
So Gok in the future [when 25yrs elapses] will upgrade MGR to SGR..in Nakuru to Eldoret to Malaba..and all the other lines.
Lapset rail-line will then cover the northern kenya.
And kenya may in few years be somewhere near where it should when it comes to railway network for moving cargo.
We cannot even answer either of those questions, because of reasons that are implicit in the second question. A sort of "meta" thing ....
As the EAC's Japanese consultant said: "Your obsession with gauge is misplaced. After you spend all that money, your trains will be slower than what we have on narrow gauge lines that are older than yours. Why not just work with what you have, but learn to maintain it?". And Kiriro has a related point: nobody wants to move cargo particularly fast. In Japan, the longest 130 kph line is used for cargo, on a line parallel to a "bullet rain line", although there is one passenger train for people who wish to take their time (dark-night, touchy-feely on a train etc.)
Seeing as you live in the USA, this might interest you. In order to move to standard gauge, the USA took a most logical approach: Given that gauge is simply the distance between rails, in order to change gauge, why not just pick one side of the railway line and move it by a few inches to the left? And they did exactly that---about 12,000 miles in two (yes, two days)! In 1886.
The middle of this debate: http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3 (http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3)
I think they have heard of these options. It should be obvious they have. I find it hard to believe otherwise. Why choose SGR? Maybe they think it is transformational, even if they cannot put a finger on why? That it is better than the other options even if they cannot quite explain why. Or, something you can never rule out in Kenya, it is just easier to eat from SGR.
The example about USA standard gauge is intriguing. In that case they were reducing the gauge, so they did not have to worry about running out of crosstie space. Still it makes a lot of sense. The challenges would be on the curves, where you might have to add or chip off sections; probably minor given that they were able to pull this off with 19th century manual labor.
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Ignoring the postmortem issues (sgr is snaking its way); which data did you look into? The last I heard Mombasa port was the forth busiest port in Africa and is moving more than 1M containers annually.
I'll see if I can did it up tomorrow; it was either from a Canadian consulting company of from the World Bank. It looked at the projected growth, by tonnage, year by year.
Mombasa being the 4th busiest port in Africa or moving 1M containers would not be relevant to the data, in that if Africa is not moving a lot of tonnage, then being the 4th does not matter much. The issue is simply one of how much the line is projected to carry.
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WindyCity,
The ukabila simply comes in because this man cannot bring himself to critically appraise the project purely because wameshika serekali. His tribal blinkers even lead him to conclude that ALL diesel trains are slow. Is this because perhaps all he knows are slow diesel trucks in his backyard?
Points to a shockingly lazy and misinformed chap. How did he qualify to speak anyway?
A simple websearch would have led him to the following wiki:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dc/British_Rail_Class_43_at_Chesterfield.jpg/300px-British_Rail_Class_43_at_Chesterfield.jpg)
The InterCity 125 was the brand name of British Rail's High Speed Train (HST) fleet, which was built from 1975 to 1982 and was introduced in 1976. The InterCity 125 train is made up of two Class 43 power cars, one at each end of a fixed formation of Mark 3 carriages (the number of carriages varies by operator). The train operates at speeds of up to 125 mph (201 km/h) in regular service, and has an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), making it the fastest diesel-powered train in the world, a record it has held from its introduction to the present day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCity_125
I gave up listening after his silly claim about slow diesels...
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There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour.
I think I missed something here. The point is?
The point is that he claims the SGR will only be good for freight as it will be operating diesel trains, and that diesels are too slow for passenger traffic. I think he was trying to justify the reasons why Kenya went for diesel as opposed to electric. He supported that by declaring that Kenya generates 1600MW of power while electric trains on the same line will need 1700MW. The funniest bit was suggesting that cargo is not time sensitive and therefore will make do with the slow trains on the SGR.
Anyway, i do not know much about the railway industry to offer suggestions, apart from what I have seen in Europe and the Middle east. My hope is that the line is designed with the option of high speed trains in the future. The Brits are suffering massive costs trying to adopt their windy lines to accommodate high speed trains.
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WindyCity,
The ukabila simply comes in because this man cannot bring himself to critically appraise the project purely because wameshika serekali. His tribal blinkers even lead him to conclude that ALL diesel trains are slow. Is this because perhaps all he knows are slow diesel trucks in his backyard?
Points to a shockingly lazy and misinformed chap. How did he qualify to speak anyway?
A simple websearch would have led him to the following wiki:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dc/British_Rail_Class_43_at_Chesterfield.jpg/300px-British_Rail_Class_43_at_Chesterfield.jpg)
The InterCity 125 was the brand name of British Rail's High Speed Train (HST) fleet, which was built from 1975 to 1982 and was introduced in 1976. The InterCity 125 train is made up of two Class 43 power cars, one at each end of a fixed formation of Mark 3 carriages (the number of carriages varies by operator). The train operates at speeds of up to 125 mph (201 km/h) in regular service, and has an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), making it the fastest diesel-powered train in the world, a record it has held from its introduction to the present day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCity_125 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCity_125)
I gave up listening after his silly claim about slow diesels...
Bryan,
You are wrong if you assume he is batting for Jubilee. You want to listen to the end. The impression I have is that he is highlighting alternatives that Jubilee failed to consider. Obviously his points about the diesel trains are wrong as you correctly point out.
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Bryan,
You are wrong if you assume he is batting for Jubilee. You want to listen to the end. The impression I have is that he is highlighting alternatives that Jubilee failed to consider. Obviously his points about the diesel trains are wrong as you correctly point out.
Well, accuracy is everything, I will try to muscle through the inaccuracies to see what else he has to say.
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bryan275:
I can see where you are coming from, as the Americans would say.
Let us start with the speed of diesel trains. Such trains are, in principle capable of even higher speeds than the InterCity 125; this has been shown in numerous tests. But in practice, who actually runs diesel trains at high speeds? The InterCity is an exception, and, as you note, it holds some sort of world record. Still, compared to really fast passenger trains, it would be considered something like a "medium-speed" train. (Who else is running diesel trains at anything approaching that speed?)
You also state that:
The funniest bit was suggesting that cargo is not time sensitive.
He did not suggest that. What he suggested is cargo is not as time sensitive as passengers, which is an entirely different statement. And he in support of that, he gave an argument that seems easy enough to verify: look around the world; who is moving train cargo at really high speed? As far as I can tell, even where countries have high-speed tracks and trains, cargo tends go to much slower. In Japan, for example, the railway lines are operated on the basis of "speed for passengers" and "predictability for cargo"; and the two generally travel on different lines.
Lastly: I see no basis for the charge of ukabila. A case of "your name betrays you"?.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-08/africa-s-30-billion-rail-renaissance-holds-ticket-for-trade
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Railway need enough cargo to make enough money to pay back Kung Fu ...
Borrrowed from Jukwaa, written back in May 2014:
What about Mr. Kagame's Rwanda? He seems rather coy when it comes to details; hardly a word out of him on Rwanda's part of the SGR Spider-Network. Let's first see how the loudmouth Kenyans fare? But, of course, we fully support them. Go Kenya, go!
And speaking of the Kenyans: Kenyans excited about Kung Fu's "free help" or worried about the debt should keep in mind that so far we are only up to Nairobi, and that's in thought, not deed. Does anyone there have even Detail One on what happens after the Great SGR reaches Nairobi? Funding, construction plans, etc? The significance of this question is this: In about 4 years, the Kenyan SGR will have reached Nairobi. Beyond that, who knows. In the meantime, the rehabilitated Tanzanian line will be ready for goods to roll from whichever one of their ports that are getting geared for the big time. Which route will Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and the DRC take?
http://jukwaa.proboards.com/post/130076/quote/9031
(The new Tanzanian line definitely takes care of Rwanda and Burundi, as joint partners.)
Today, May 2016:
Rwanda dumps Kenya SGR route for Tanzania.
Rwanda has announced plans to develop rail link to Indian Ocean ports through Tanzania because they are cheaper and shorter than the route transiting Kenya, says Claver Gatete, the minister of finance and economic planning.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Rwanda-abandons-Kenya-SGR-route/-/1056/3206084/-/my4av1z/-/index.html
The DN article states that
Studies by EAC member states showed Tanzanian ...
This is actually the Canadian Consultants report on a review of the Master Plan. All EAC countries have had that for several years, but we still had Kagame showing up for all sorts of discussions and photo-ops with Uhuru and Museveni, as if ...
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(http://www.dikkmrail.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DIKKM_Map-1024x770.png)
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SGR still make economic sense even if we were to do it linking it to kenyan towns.
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SGR was initially for the link Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda and East DRC. Now in the middle of the project we change it to a Kenyan city link project.
Guys, we did not do our homework properly before starting this project. Uhuru just had his eyes set on the 10% commission he and his buddies pocketed. Let the Kenya taxpayer now bleed for the next 50 years.
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I think that is not true. Most of traffic btw mombasa port end up in Nairobi. SGR will proof the most transformative project. And it being delivered on schedule and time. We could have done better with tendering and all that..but that now is water under the bridge. Next yr I look forward to train ride to Mombasa.
SGR was initially for the link Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda and East DRC. Now in the middle of the project we change it to a Kenyan city link project.
Guys, we did not do our homework properly before starting this project. Uhuru just had his eyes set on the 10% commission he and his buddies pocketed. Let the Kenya taxpayer now bleed for the next 50 years.
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I think that is not true.
It is true. Go look up the EAC Railway Master Plan ... what is referred to above as the "SGR Spider-Network".
SGR still make economic sense even if we were to do it linking it to kenyan towns.
There is a World Bank report that says it doesn't. I have yet to see a solid counter-argument to that.
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What I find shocking is that it took over 50 years for Rwanda to realize that this is the obvious thing to do.
(http://www.dikkmrail.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DIKKM_Map-1024x770.png)
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If Safaricom had read those projections; they won't be raking in revenues of 200B and making profit of 40b now. Mombasa port has grown to become top 5 busiest port in Africa. You have cargo growth of more than double digit every year....this should mean we have to be build many more railways.
After this SGR, kenya gov should look internally before going to small country like Rwanda or even Uganda whose GDP are miniscule. Get railway and road network spanning all the counties of kenya. And we will be building foundation for the future.
SGR is something that will last more than 100yrs....so it can never become loss making in my opinion.
It is true. Go look up the EAC Railway Master Plan ... what is referred to above as the "SGR Spider-Network".
SGR still make economic sense even if we were to do it linking it to kenyan towns.
There is a World Bank report that says it doesn't. I have yet to see a solid counter-argument to that.
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If Safaricom had read those projections; they won't be raking in revenues of 200B and making profit of 40b now.
Sorry, I don't see how Safaricom comes into the picture; please explain. Nor do I see what one would consider a solid counter-argument to the report I referred to; please clarify.
Mombasa port has grown to become top 5 busiest port in Africa. You have cargo growth of more than double digit every year....this should mean we have to be build many more railways.
You seem to assume that all that cargo will automatically go onto the railway. That is not necessarily so.
SGR is something that will last more than 100yrs....so it can never become loss making in my opinion.
Try applying your logic to the existing rail lines. You forget the little matter of maintenance and that SGR is being built because Kenya has been unable to do that with existing rail lines. Also, as a rule, profit and loss are determined by more than mere existence.
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You always fail to see the big picture as you focus on nitpicking. My point is simple...any projection done here in Africa where is data is spotty or missing or things are bound to dramatically change anytime is plain nonsense. It just doesn't pan out that way. This is young growing country that will need more SGR....and that is for future.
As long as we can afford..and we can afford 10b USD for the railway to Malaba...we should do it.How much has corruption cost this country? 10B? And yet the country is still functioning. SGR and Laptop is money well spent.
I just don't see how SGR can become white elephant. The old line served it purpose for many years and was later mismanaged in 90s. Nothing to do with "maintenance" culture but old corruption and mismanagement brought it down to it knees. Moi kleptomania just saw huge land reserves and brought once successful KR down..otherwise it been serving this country for nearly 100yrs.
Then Kibaki come in and ask world bank's to fix it. WB's IFC screw up by not doing proper due diligence on the south African conman RVR...and gave it 25 yrs concession. The idiot turned out had no capital to be running a rail line anywhere.Something we could not just quit because Ugandans would not agree to it.
The country faced a simple choice....wait for 20yrs to upgrade the MGR to SGR...or start another line of SGR to Nairobi...then from Nairobi it takes a completely new route towards narok, bomet, nyamira to sondu to ahero and kisumu....areas that never had the MGR.After RVR fiasco is done..GoK intend to upgrade the MGR to SGR. MGR to SGR wherever the line exist is done deal. We should be talking new rail line like LAPSET one.
Hold your horse...this is just the start.....in 10-20yrs we should be rolling more and more SGR like China is doing. More railways, more roads, more ports, more pipeline and more power stations....this is a country that is a toddler...not a developed country like USA or Japan or UK..that need to debate whether building this road or rail make economic sense..it by default here make economic sense.
If Safaricom had read those projections; they won't be raking in revenues of 200B and making profit of 40b now.
Sorry, I don't see how Safaricom comes into the picture; please explain. Nor do I see what one would consider a solid counter-argument to the report I referred to; please clarify.
Mombasa port has grown to become top 5 busiest port in Africa. You have cargo growth of more than double digit every year....this should mean we have to be build many more railways.
You seem to assume that all that cargo will automatically go onto the railway. That is not necessarily so.
SGR is something that will last more than 100yrs....so it can never become loss making in my opinion.
Try applying your logic to the existing rail lines. You forget the little matter of maintenance and that SGR is being built because Kenya has been unable to do that with existing rail lines. Also, as a rule, profit and loss are determined by more than mere existence.
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You always fail to see the big picture as you focus on nitpicking.
I prefer to think of it as asking for solid arguments, based on clear facts. But I'm OK with it if you wish to consider it nitpicking, and I'm grateful that you are here to point out the big picture.
My point is simple any projection done here in Africa where is spotty or missing is plain nonsense. It just doesn't pan out that way.
People in Africa (in the private sector and public sector) are involved in that "plain nonsense" all the time; even your Safaricom right now has its own. Why do you think they bother? Or do they use such projections to make important decisions?
And specifically on this SGR thing: where do you think the WB and EAC consultants are working with "spotty" and "missing"?
I just don't see how SGR can become white elephant. The old line served it purpose and was mismanaged. Nothing to do with "maintance" culture but old corruption and mismanagement brought it down to it knees. Then world bank's IFC screwed up attempt to revive it by not doing proper due diligince on the south african conman RVR...and gave it 25 yrs concession. Something we could not just quit because Ugandans would not agree to it.
The lines were never maintained properly. No need for debate on that: just go look at them. Perhaps that was a consequence of mismanagement and corruption. At any rate, let us take corruption and mismanagement as the root causes. What makes you think that the SGR will be free of those? Did Kenya suddenly change while we slept last night?
Funnily enough, you (in an odd way) agree with the Japanese consultant who said the real problems had nothing to do with gauge and that no new, SGR lines were necessary!
The country faced a simple choice....wait for 20yrs to upgrade the MGR to SGR... or start another line of SGR to Nairobi..
Sorry; you lost me somewhere. What exactly in the concession agreement stopped or stops GoK from rehabilitating those lines? (And why 20 years?)
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More nitpicking. Kenya has definitely turn the corner infrastructure wise thanks to Chinese. We have learnt our lesson. The country cannot return to Moi's pot hole filled roads and collapse rail line. This new SGR will be outsourced this time hopefully to company with real reputation.
As for lopsided RVR deal....what is there to gain in looking for that.
We should be talking about lapset rail..otherwise SGR is commonsensical economic sensical must do. Anything done to reduce the atrocious transport time& cost in East Africa however little must be applauded...and this will have mutliplier effect beyond what world bank can see or project.WB in any case should be the last people to talk about SGR after screwing up our MGR.
SGR-MSA-NBO--which is the most important for me --is already 80% done--come next year it will going live. That is transformation. This gov has managed to do truly incredible stuff. When Ruto made that claim pre-2013 I thought it wasn't possible...but they've delivered.
You always fail to see the big picture as you focus on nitpicking.
I prefer to think of it as asking for solid arguments, based on clear facts. But I'm OK with it if you wish to consider it nitpicking, and I'm grateful that you are here to point out the big picture.
My point is simple any projection done here in Africa where is spotty or missing is plain nonsense. It just doesn't pan out that way.
People in Africa (in the private sector and public sector) are involved in that "plain nonsense" all the time; even your Safaricom right now has its own. Why do you think they bother?
And specifically on this SGR thing: where do you think the WB and EAC consultants are working with "spotty" and "missing"?
I just don't see how SGR can become white elephant. The old line served it purpose and was mismanaged. Nothing to do with "maintance" culture but old corruption and mismanagement brought it down to it knees. Then world bank's IFC screwed up attempt to revive it by not doing proper due diligince on the south african conman RVR...and gave it 25 yrs concession. Something we could not just quit because Ugandans would not agree to it.
The lines were never maintained properly. No need for debate on that: just go look at them. Perhaps that was a consequence of mismanagement and corruption. At any rate, let us take corruption and mismanagement as the root causes. What makes you think that the SGR will be free of those? Did Kenya suddenly change while we slept last night?
Funnily enough, you (in an odd way) agree with the Japanese consultant who said the real problems had nothing to do with gauge and that no new, SGR lines were necessary!
The country faced a simple choice....wait for 20yrs to upgrade the MGR to SGR... or start another line of SGR to Nairobi..
Sorry; you lost me somewhere. What exactly in the concession agreement stopped or stops GoK from upgrading those lines? (And why 20 years?)
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More nitpicking.
That's the usual signal for quitting time. Now given twice. OK, I have taken note. :D
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Sure thing. You are nitpicking at kenya's biggest investment since 1963. A project that will reduce transport cost by nearly 3 times and transport time by nearly the same factor. Transport cost of a container from China to Mombasa now cost about same as shorter nairobi-msa. Come next year this may go down by 2.5-3 times and container will arrive in the same day.The multiplier effect on the economy with import/export worth 20B USD....all mainly go through Nairobi....to Mombasa..is going to be amazing..before you factor transhipment cost for UG,SS and the rest.
That's the usual signal for quitting time. Now given twice. OK, I have taken note. :D
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It is impossible though. And true to made in China skimping plans, not to mention the cheap materials they used to skimp some more:
Controversial Railway Splits Kenya’s Parks, Threatens Wildlife
The line under construction in the modernizing nation will run through two national parks and has already disrupted elephant movement
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160412-railway-kenya-parks-wildlife/
These trains may not even be functional because of train kill.
A container from China to Sydney is completely free. Importing goods from China to Sydney below AU$1000 is free and exempt from custom taxes. Even though the same deals were made with Kenya, Kenyans still pay ludicrous amount of custom tax for shipping freights and parcels. The GoK has done nothing to trickle down these Chinese agreements to the common wananchi.
These development milestones with China are a result of Chinese agreements and investments across the globe and not just specific to Kenya. I wouldn't credit Jubilee for due diligence enacted by the Chinese. In most instances and especially with transport developments it should've been subject to a tender/bidding war.
The Chinese offers to build things for practically any country but most countries like Uganda aren't that desperate. But I guess Uhuruto had to give the illusion of development after stealing the elections, PEV, printed fake money, money laundered, caused inflation, borrowed yet again from WB/IMF, caused deficits, stole from Irish stock, bribed ICC, set up cyber taskforces, extrajudicial killings etc. who knows how long they can keep up the bromance, development illusion etc. etc. probably until they blame all turmoils on Raila Raila Big Daddy Raila. Kenya is still spiralling towards a failed State. Perhaps like Haiti in 10 years at this rate.
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Railway need enough cargo to make enough money to pay back Kung Fu ...
Borrrowed from Jukwaa, written back in May 2014:
What about Mr. Kagame's Rwanda? He seems rather coy when it comes to details; hardly a word out of him on Rwanda's part of the SGR Spider-Network. Let's first see how the loudmouth Kenyans fare? But, of course, we fully support them. Go Kenya, go!
And speaking of the Kenyans: Kenyans excited about Kung Fu's "free help" or worried about the debt should keep in mind that so far we are only up to Nairobi, and that's in thought, not deed. Does anyone there have even Detail One on what happens after the Great SGR reaches Nairobi? Funding, construction plans, etc? The significance of this question is this: In about 4 years, the Kenyan SGR will have reached Nairobi. Beyond that, who knows. In the meantime, the rehabilitated Tanzanian line will be ready for goods to roll from whichever one of their ports that are getting geared for the big time. Which route will Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and the DRC take?
http://jukwaa.proboards.com/post/130076/quote/9031 (http://jukwaa.proboards.com/post/130076/quote/9031)
(The new Tanzanian line definitely takes care of Rwanda and Burundi, as joint partners.)
Today, May 2016:
Rwanda dumps Kenya SGR route for Tanzania.
Rwanda has announced plans to develop rail link to Indian Ocean ports through Tanzania because they are cheaper and shorter than the route transiting Kenya, says Claver Gatete, the minister of finance and economic planning.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Rwanda-abandons-Kenya-SGR-route/-/1056/3206084/-/my4av1z/-/index.html (http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Rwanda-abandons-Kenya-SGR-route/-/1056/3206084/-/my4av1z/-/index.html)
The DN article states that
Studies by EAC member states showed Tanzanian ...
This is actually the Canadian Consultants report on a review of the Master Plan. All EAC countries have had that for several years, but we still had Kagame showing up for all sorts of discussions and photo-ops with Uhuru and Museveni, as if ...
There-in lies the answer to Kiriro's question. He was wondering why Uganda and Rwanda were not working on their end-points of the SGR. It seems like they have never been on board. I find it difficult to believe they had an agreement with Kenya that they simply trashed with impunity.
MGR is the main gauge in East Africa. If one is talking regional railway integration, that seems like a natural way to go.
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Kenya is now even sceptical of Uganda taking part in SGR. Jubilee leadership did not do its homework well.
“The decision has not been reached but we have a number of options at our disposal. We can decide to end the SGR at Naivasha or Kisumu but it will still be a viable venture due to the presence of Lake Victoria,” said Mr Macharia.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-to-terminate-railway-at-Kisumu-after-Rwanda-exit/-/1248928/3207470/-/rjhj8ez/-/index.html
There-in lies the answer to Kiriro's question. He was wondering why Uganda and Rwanda were not working on their end-points of the SGR. It seems like they have never been on board. I find it difficult to believe they had an agreement with Kenya that they simply trashed with impunity.
MGR is the main gauge in East Africa. If one is talking regional railway integration, that seems like a natural way to go.
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Kenya is now even sceptical of Uganda taking part in SGR. Jubilee leadership did not do its homework well.
“The decision has not been reached but we have a number of options at our disposal. We can decide to end the SGR at Naivasha or Kisumu but it will still be a viable venture due to the presence of Lake Victoria,” said Mr Macharia.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-to-terminate-railway-at-Kisumu-after-Rwanda-exit/-/1248928/3207470/-/rjhj8ez/-/index.html (http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-to-terminate-railway-at-Kisumu-after-Rwanda-exit/-/1248928/3207470/-/rjhj8ez/-/index.html)
There-in lies the answer to Kiriro's question. He was wondering why Uganda and Rwanda were not working on their end-points of the SGR. It seems like they have never been on board. I find it difficult to believe they had an agreement with Kenya that they simply trashed with impunity.
MGR is the main gauge in East Africa. If one is talking regional railway integration, that seems like a natural way to go.
SGR was always a purely Kenyan affair. The Mombasa-Nairobi portion is a horse that has bolted. That said, does it mean that it makes less economic sense to refurbish the existing MGR? Is it more expensive to refurbish the entire MGR than to keep extending SGR?
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Meanwhile those guys are happy to keep cheering Kenya to aim for even greater heights---just as long as they themselves don't have to do anything. Go Kenya, go!
Just a couple of months ago:
East African Community states have endorsed Kenya’s plans for the electrification of the standard gauge railway operations
...
“The meeting recommended the adoption of Kenya’s proposal to convert Mombasa–Nairobi–Malaba to electric traction by the time all other sections in partner States commence construction,” Transport and Infrastructure Cabinet Secretary James Macharia said in a statement after the meeting.
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-electric-rail-plan-receives-regional-backing/-/996/3068142/-/hj1uqxz/-/index.html
Macharia was very pleased:
Mr Macharia said following the endorsement, Kenya will move ahead with its plans to include the provision for electric traction in the engineering and construction contracts for all other sections including the Nairobi-Malaba route.
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Kenya should concentrate on kenya own interest. UG & Rwanda do not use Dar port that much because TZ is generally a mess. Just make it cheaper for intransit cargo to move to Kisumu and Malaba and Busia and Namanga and Taita...and let them do whatever they want from their end. Right now after Jubilee reform clearing time in Mombasa has dramatically reduced to 2-3 days from a week in 2013...those and such reforms are the ultimate winners for economy. We should be aiming for clearing time of even 1 day and cargo being moved the next day to Nairobi by 2017.
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SGR was always a purely Kenyan affair. The Mombasa-Nairobi portion is a horse that has bolted. That said, does it mean that it makes less economic sense to refurbish the existing MGR? Is it more expensive to refurbish the entire MGR than to keep extending SGR?
Not true. SGR was designed to go till Rwanda while passing through Uganda and even the possibility of taking it till East DRC was in plan.
Kenya has messed big time and it is time we admitt the obvious and reorganise not only our finances but our relationship to the neighbouring countries.
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How has kenya messed up and what relationship need repairing? Kenya is delivering the rail 1yr ahead of schedule.
Not true. SGR was designed to go till Rwanda while passing through Uganda and even the possibility of taking it till East DRC was in plan.
Kenya has messed big time and it is time we admitt the obvious and reorganise not only our finances but our relationship to the neighbouring countries.
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SGR was always a purely Kenyan affair. The Mombasa-Nairobi portion is a horse that has bolted. That said, does it mean that it makes less economic sense to refurbish the existing MGR? Is it more expensive to refurbish the entire MGR than to keep extending SGR?
Not true. SGR was designed to go till Rwanda while passing through Uganda and even the possibility of taking it till East DRC was in plan.
Kenya has messed big time and it is time we admitt the obvious and reorganise not only our finances but our relationship to the neighbouring countries.
You are right about Rwanda. They have denied they are pulling out of the project. Kiriro's question about why they haven't started work on their end, remains relevant.
The Rwandan government has rejected claims that it was abandoning the Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway route in favour of the Dar-es-Salaam-Isaka-Kigali/Keza-Musongati Standard Gauge Railway.
Media reports had earlier quoted Claver Gatete, the Minister for Finance and Economic Planning, as having said that Rwanda was opting out of the Kenyan route because the Tanzanian route was cheaper and shorter.
“Rwanda is not pulling out of the Kenyan railway route. What I pointed out was that the Tanzanian route is shorter and slightly cheaper compared to the Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway. To suggest that Rwanda was pulling out of one railway route in favour of the other is simply misleading,” Gatete said in a statement sent to The New Times yesterday.
Studies conducted by the East African Community (EAC) indicate that the Tanzanian railway route would cost Rwanda about US$800 to $900 million dollars, while the Kenyan one would cost US$1 billion.
“We do not favour one route over the other because we see both the Northern and Central corridors as critical in cutting transport costs and facilitating trade to and from the ports of Mombasa and Dar-es-Salaam,” added the minister.
“We intend to have access to both routes by railway. Nothing has changed and that decision still holds.”
http://www.newtimes.co.rw/section/article/2016-05-19/200028/
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You are right about Rwanda. They have denied they are pulling out of the project. Kiriro's question about why they haven't started work on their end, remains relevant.
The Rwandan government has rejected claims that it was abandoning the Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway route in favour of the Dar-es-Salaam-Isaka-Kigali/Keza-Musongati Standard Gauge Railway.
Media reports had earlier quoted Claver Gatete, the Minister for Finance and Economic Planning, as having said that Rwanda was opting out of the Kenyan route because the Tanzanian route was cheaper and shorter.
“Rwanda is not pulling out of the Kenyan railway route. What I pointed out was that the Tanzanian route is shorter and slightly cheaper compared to the Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway. To suggest that Rwanda was pulling out of one railway route in favour of the other is simply misleading,” Gatete said in a statement sent to The New Times yesterday.
....
“We do not favour one route over the other because we see both the Northern and Central corridors as critical in cutting transport costs and facilitating trade to and from the ports of Mombasa and Dar-es-Salaam,” added the minister.
“We intend to have access to both routes by railway. Nothing has changed and that decision still holds.”
http://www.newtimes.co.rw/section/article/2016-05-19/200028/
The guy simply realized that he shouldn't have spoken. It is not necessary to announce any "pull-out"; it suffices to simply do nothing.
The guy says the Tanzanian path is cheaper and shorter. So, they want the Kenyan one because? The statement that they will have both would make a great deal of sense only if they were getting at least one for free; the only thing that is free here is the statement.
One also has to take into account Macharia's statements here (unless he too wishes to spin it into a "misunderstanding"):
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-to-terminate-railway-at-Kisumu-after-Rwanda-exit/-/1248928/3207470/-/rjhj8ez/-/index.html
Does that sound like all are together, happily working on the that route? Either they do not have a very good plan and are not even communicating properly, unless one counts the media---and it's supposedly major project!---or both sides are simply out to produce a good story.
To actually see which way Rwanda will go, all one needs to do is look at the timeline: Extension from Nairobi to Malaba to start at some unknown date and end at some unknown date; Uganda is then to start its connection to Malaba at some unknown date and finish at some unknown date; after that Uganda is to do a line to the Rwandan border, again dates unknown. In the meantime, what is happening down south?
Here is an example of what I consider a good indicator of the reality: Go to the webpage of the Rwanda Transport Development Agency, here:
http://www.rtda.gov.rw/index.php?id=86
To see what they have on railways, click on "Projects". The only thing there is a summary of the Tanzanian project. Nothing about any SGR with Kenya and Uganda.
...
The more I think about this, the less I see Kenya's SGR going beyond Nairobi, ... which is not to say that I believe it won't happen.
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MOON Ki,
I see what you are saying. The only project on the Rwanda side is here (http://www.rtda.gov.rw/fileadmin/templates/documents/Info_current_status_of_the_Project.pdf). It looks more and more like a go-it-alone Kenya project. Uganda may conceivably be forced on board, not sure how; but they are more at Kenya's mercy than Rwanda.
Rwanda has little to gain on that front. Maybe solidarity with Kenya. In fact, they'd be stupid to start construction, when Uganda is not clearly on board; it's not free.
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Rwanda has little to gain on that front. Maybe solidarity with Kenya. In fact, they'd be stupid to start construction, when Uganda is not clearly on board; it's not free.
There's little danger of that. They don't have any plans on which they would base any construction. They have not even carried out feasibility studies that would lead to the production of such plans. In fact, it appears that they don't even have serious plans to carry out feasibility studies!
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The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?
Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.
Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.
This is akin to nonsense we had from NEPAD with EASSY fiber network...it took Dr Bitange Ndemo guts to start our own teams and seacom. We laid fibre on our own all the way to Omani and we have far better internet here....than those guys who depend on EASSY alone.
In 2015 the total cargo throughput handled at the port stood at 26.732 million tonnes compared to 24.875 million the previous year, reflecting a growth of 7.5 per cent. A total of 22.67 million tonnes of cargo were imports while 3.53 million tonnes were export commodities.
Transit traffic to the East African hinterland significantly increased from 7.19 million tonnes in 2014 to 7.66 million in 2015. “Going by 2015 trends and statistics, almost all transit countries are increasingly using the port of Mombasa,” the KPA said
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The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?
Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.
Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.
25% seems rather large when it is about serious money, so I would consider it a big deal. But people may argue about that. There are those who say it is not economically sensible right now, but, again, people may argue about that. What is more important is that anything resembling reasonable economics will depend on growth of traffic, to both destinations in Kenya and outside Kenya; so just looking at the figures right now do not necessarily help.
As for "Kenya should just build ...", it is not just a matter of Kenya deciding. Funding is required. For that, it cannot be assumed that Kung Fu is just burning to hand out (actually loan) money for these projects---in Kenya, Uganda, and elsewhere. I doubt that it is. For the Mombasa-Nairobi line, Kung Fu's approach to questions of economic viability were dealt with by forcing Kenya to take out very costly insurance on those loans. The rest of the line to Malaba, and beyond, is even more questionable. Will Kung be ready and willing? If so, at what cost? Remains to be seen ...
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The most important center of economy in whole of east africa is NAIROBI. I can say MSA-NBO line is good enough. The rest are nice to have. And now that we have taken insurance..what the BIG DEAL? We have our a.rse covered litterally...so keep building the railway...for the future.
We invest about the same amount every year investing in education of our kids..so what again is the big deal here.
That we are having this debate...in country that is lacking infra..is for me truly shocking.
25% seems rather large when it is about serious money, so I would consider it a big deal. But people may argue about that. There are those who say it is not economically sensible right now, but, again, people may argue about that. What is more important is that anything resembling reasonable economics will depend on growth of traffic, to both destinations in Kenya and outside Kenya; so just looking at the figures right now do not necessarily help.
As for "Kenya should just build ...", it is not just a matter of Kenya deciding. Funding is required. For that, it cannot be assumed that Kung Fu is just burning to hand out (actually loan) money for these projects---in Kenya, Uganda, and elsewhere. I doubt that it is. For the Mombasa-Nairobi line, Kung Fu's approach to questions of economic viability were dealt with by forcing Kenya to take out very costly insurance on those loans. The rest of the line to Malaba, and beyond, is even more questionable. Will Kung be ready and willing? If so, at what cost? Remains to be seen ...
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The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?
Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.
Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.
This is akin to nonsense we had from NEPAD with EASSY fiber network...it took Dr Bitange Ndemo guts to start our own teams and seacom. We laid fibre on our own all the way to Omani and we have far better internet here....than those guys who depend on EASSY alone.
In 2015 the total cargo throughput handled at the port stood at 26.732 million tonnes compared to 24.875 million the previous year, reflecting a growth of 7.5 per cent. A total of 22.67 million tonnes of cargo were imports while 3.53 million tonnes were export commodities.
Transit traffic to the East African hinterland significantly increased from 7.19 million tonnes in 2014 to 7.66 million in 2015. “Going by 2015 trends and statistics, almost all transit countries are increasingly using the port of Mombasa,” the KPA said
It looks more like 31%(7.19/22.67) of the cargo is in transit. But if it is 25%, I am gathering you think Kenya just ignore that. I think Uganda is a captive regardless of which way Kenya goes; it makes sense to work out a common approach. Rwanda seems to have more options, and are apparently sorting themselves out already.
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And now that we have taken insurance..what the BIG DEAL? We have our a.rse covered litterally...
No, no, no.
It's Kung Fu that has his "arse literally covered": Whether the line makes money or not, he gets paid in full. (On top of that, he's already pocketing that hefty insurance fee.) The big deal is that Kenya---i.e. the collection of taxpaying Kenyans---gets f**ked if the line loses money.
That we are having this debate...in country that is lacking infra..is for me truly shocking.
You get shocked too easily.
The debate is not whether or not Kenya needs good railway lines; it is whether or not it needs this costly SGR. If the government is serious about having a good railway system, then consider this: Right now Kenya has something like 2100 km of rail. How much of that is operational? Something like a half. There seems to be an obvious project there---repair, refurbish, maintain ... Anybody talking about that?
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The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?
Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.
Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.
25% seems rather large when it is about serious money, so I would consider it a big deal. But people may argue about that. There are those who say it is not economically sensible right now, but, again, people may argue about that. What is more important is that anything resembling reasonable economics will depend on growth of traffic, to both destinations in Kenya and outside Kenya; so just looking at the figures right now do not necessarily help.
That's correct. One would think all these photo-ops by regional leaders are more than just publicity stunts. That the countries need to increase integration of their infrastructure is a no brainer.
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“The SGR requires a return load to become economically viable, it should lower the cost of goods and increase competitiveness, allowing Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) to increase turnaround,” Mr Murimi told Daily Nation by telephone
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Rwanda-exit-casts-doubts-on-viability-of-SGR-/-/1056/3214544/-/7jv1h8z/-/index.html
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I am at Uganda now and UG's SGR team are already working on compensation starting from Malaba & Tororo. Kenya therefore should continue with SGR all the way to Malaba and possibly extend it to other border posts along TZ & UG border.
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Interesting analysis of the SGR from The Economist:
The Kenyan project is perhaps the most ambitious. Unlike the old line, which is on a 1,067mm gauge, the new railway is built to a modern “standard gauge” (1,435mm), which ought to increase capacity. Travellers on the ancient British-era passenger trains, which run three times a week from Nairobi to Mombasa, now have their view of the elephants of Tsavo National Park impeded by an enormous embankment for the new line. The idea is that it will carry as much as half of the cargo unloaded at the port of Mombasa, or about ten times as much as the current railway shifts.
Drivers on the main road to the capital ought to cheer if the line results in fewer smoke-spewing trucks coming out of the port, but the business case for it is shaky. The new track is costing Kenya about $4 billion, mostly funded by a loan from the Chinese ExIm bank, but how it will be repaid is unclear.
Although only a year remains before completion, not only are tariffs and rates undecided, but it is not even clear who will run the railway. Kenyan officials have apparently taken to skipping trade conferences of late to avoid answering questions.
Could this be because the new railway is a dud investment? Its fastest trains will do a fairly mediocre 80kph. Much as with the old railway, parts of the new line will be single-track, forcing trains to stop, often for hours, to let others pass. Most absurdly, it is built to a lower standard of load-bearing than most other new freight railways. Some fret it may not be possible to load four full containers onto each wagon, as is done on other new lines. “They’re getting a third-rate railway for the cost of a very expensive one,” says a consultant.
Repaying the loans taken out to build the line will require hefty fees or huge volumes of traffic. But truckers—who now handle more than 95% of the freight moved from Mombasa port—will compete fiercely on price, and shipping companies may look for other ports if levies rise.
Rehabilitating the older line might have cost just 5% as much as building a new one on a new right of way, reckons Pierre Pozzo di Borgo of the International Finance Corporation, part of the World Bank. But efforts to mend rather than buy have generally not gone well either. Since the 1990s many African railways have been handed over to private concessions to boost investment and improve management. But the reality has been disappointing. Competition from truckers (who don’t have to pay their share to maintain roads, even though they do the most damage to them) has shifted cargo from rail to tarmac, shredding the business plans of concessionaires. Many are struggling to cover their running costs, never mind invest.
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21699919-africas-new-railways-risk-going-way-old-ones-puffed-out
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They didn't do any homework. They should have asked WB/IFC dude how the current railway went when GoK allowed WB/IFC them to ran the show and modernize it. Secondly they should have known GoK has already selected China Roads & Bridges to ran the rail line for the first five years. The rolling stock is being shipped this year for a test ran..and the largest investment in modern kenya..is well on course for roll out next year. Other facts ignored in this SGR..is that kenya one including rolling stock and 23B kshs inland depot in Embakasi...and of course it passes several animal parks...meaning many overpasses...so our line is more expensive.
This article is beyond lame. Certainly not upto the Economist standard.
Interesting analysis of the SGR from The Economist: