:D :D :D
Miguna˛ will make out of the whole issue a circus. Could be a good manouvre to deflect the attention of the Kenyan public for some time.
Do not forget Ruto was also part of the handshake government. Why not start the investigations from 2013 instead of 2018?
It will only get worst..state capture, industry capture (remember the steel story)..seems like the owner of capital have ganged up against Ruto. Ndii magic has failed to gain traction and how I want this guy to succeed! Theory and practical 2 different animals.
Oil deal money due in September prepare for another dollar crunch..
It is clear the owners have ganged up against Ruto, they went mute after he won and were shitting on their pants, but they realized he is toothless lion.
Ruto should not be comfortable with the current happenings, either fight back or have a deap with owners of capital.
Stop all the foreign tripsIt will only get worst..state capture, industry capture (remember the steel story)..seems like the owner of capital have ganged up against Ruto. Ndii magic has failed to gain traction and how I want this guy to succeed! Theory and practical 2 different animals.
Oil deal money due in September prepare for another dollar crunch..
Ruto is a coward, you can't behave like a gentleman against saboteurs.
He needs to use all the state power he has, he needs to capture all arms of government, and get Raila and his financiers squeezed.
Send backdated tax recalculations to brookside, Kenyatta bank and also Rai sugar companies, flood the market with cheap sugar from Uganda and neighbouring countries, flood the market with cheap steal etc.. hapo atashinda hi vita , but as long as the owners still control key industries and can dictate price of essentials , mambo will ngumu.Yes...forget global image for a month..use the goddammit sword spill kenyattas n odingas blood on the streets
Those with more than one cell brain are plotting to get the hell out of there. Ruto and his cabal will be left with alcohol soaked hustlers, a very thin tax base.
State is captured by people close or within the government. KK if they were serious about state capture, they'd have dismantled tools of state capture i.e regulatory and policy formulation. Instead everything is intact so that its captured by the new elites, case in point is KNTC.
KK regime had a golden opportunity to cut spending to stabilize macros, the spending cuts would have been painful especially to tenderprenurs and other leeches. But within 6 months capital would have started flowing to the private sector spurring economic growth. Now 6 months down the road government is borrowing at 12% short term and 16% long term and rising. Populist initiatives like hustler funds are hemorrhaging money with little benefit to overall economy.
In a nutshell kk regime problem isn't opposition, its the economy.
State is captured by people close or within the government. KK if they were serious about state capture, they'd have dismantled tools of state capture i.e regulatory and policy formulation. Instead everything is intact so that its captured by the new elites, case in point is KNTC.
KK regime had a golden opportunity to cut spending to stabilize macros, the spending cuts would have been painful especially to tenderprenurs and other leeches. But within 6 months capital would have started flowing to the private sector spurring economic growth. Now 6 months down the road government is borrowing at 12% short term and 16% long term and rising. Populist initiatives like hustler funds are hemorrhaging money with little benefit to overall economy.
In a nutshell kk regime problem isn't opposition, its the economy.
What can we cut? We already havent paid tenderprenuers 600B KES?
Go through gov budget - show me where 400B cuts will be got - that will plug 2B dollars 2015 eurobond principal payment.
This is example of empty talk.
What can we cut? We already havent paid tenderprenuers 600B KES?Every ministry can withstand more than 10% cut, start with discretionally spending. Treasury should have cut several budget line items in each ministry and government institutions but that means spending serious political capital. The 600b tenderprenurs debt shouldn't be a priority, its not the economic albatross that suppliers and government purports it to be.
Go through gov budget - show me where 400B cuts will be got - that will plug 2B dollars 2015 eurobond principal payment.
This is example of empty talk.State is captured by people close or within the government. KK if they were serious about state capture, they'd have dismantled tools of state capture i.e regulatory and policy formulation. Instead everything is intact so that its captured by the new elites, case in point is KNTC.
KK regime had a golden opportunity to cut spending to stabilize macros, the spending cuts would have been painful especially to tenderprenurs and other leeches. But within 6 months capital would have started flowing to the private sector spurring economic growth. Now 6 months down the road government is borrowing at 12% short term and 16% long term and rising. Populist initiatives like hustler funds are hemorrhaging money with little benefit to overall economy.
In a nutshell kk regime problem isn't opposition, its the economy.
You hit the head on the nail. :DState is captured by people close or within the government. KK if they were serious about state capture, they'd have dismantled tools of state capture i.e regulatory and policy formulation. Instead everything is intact so that its captured by the new elites, case in point is KNTC.
KK regime had a golden opportunity to cut spending to stabilize macros, the spending cuts would have been painful especially to tenderprenurs and other leeches. But within 6 months capital would have started flowing to the private sector spurring economic growth. Now 6 months down the road government is borrowing at 12% short term and 16% long term and rising. Populist initiatives like hustler funds are hemorrhaging money with little benefit to overall economy.
In a nutshell kk regime problem isn't opposition, its the economy.
We are borrowing from NCBA at 16%. The state capture commission is foregone.Not to digress, Equity bank is being coerced(forced) to buy maturing euro bond to the tune of 70b or $500m. KCB is almost maxed out, the only other bank with enough capital to buy substantial euros is NCBA. Gachora is ready with about 42b or $300m, Guess who's now on the driver seat?
It is now a matter of how lucky long the abused economy can continue before we default on local and global bankers and recently acquired oil dealers.
With demos taking a life away from baba and rains seemingly failing in some areas or El Nino wreaking havoc, 2024 will implode.
With a collapse the cuts will be deep wacha saa hii tunaexpand expenditure.
What was the use of retaining CBC confusion with no teachers. Going back to 8-4-4 would have saved the billions being added to TSC payroll.
Equity bank is being coerced(forced) to buy maturing euro bond to the tune of 70b or $500m
HK you're talking in general - but again - symbolic 10% cut in every ministry? Ruto attempted to cut 300B last year - found no headway - because discretionary spending -aka development budget is just suggestion.The current proposed budget is whopping 400b increment from the previous budget from 3.2t to 3.6t. That in itself shows there's a big fiscal space for spending cuts.
You literally need to retrench people, cut education spending, health care - which is also as unpopular as increasing taxes.
Biggest budget is MOE - 600B - for education - if you tell kenyans to start paying fees - for their kids - they will be more mad than petrol.
In short - consider that Ndii, IMF, Treasury and many economist have gone through the budget - and this BEST DEAL we can get.
400B is basically Eurobond principal that is maturing?No the budget allocation for Euro is only 200b. And furthermore the government is arranging for kenya banks to at least buy half of bond. The point is, it wasn't necessary to raise taxes , it would have been easier to cut spending. Strict austerity policy is what supply side economist would have recommended.
government is arranging for kenya banks to at least buy half of bond
200b how when dollar is 140 n could end up 150..hk wacha za ovyohttps://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-gets-300-proposals-on-settling-2b-eurobond-4246334
200b how when dollar is 140 n could end up 150..hk wacha za ovyohttps://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-gets-300-proposals-on-settling-2b-eurobond-4246334
In the Draft Budget Estimates for the financial year 2023/24, the Treasury has budgeted Ksh241.75 billion ($1.75 billion) for the maturing bond, gobbling up a staggering 51 percent of the next financial year’s external debt redemptions.
Fact is total debt servicing this year rise by 400b.200b how when dollar is 140 n could end up 150..hk wacha za ovyohttps://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-gets-300-proposals-on-settling-2b-eurobond-4246334
In the Draft Budget Estimates for the financial year 2023/24, the Treasury has budgeted Ksh241.75 billion ($1.75 billion) for the maturing bond, gobbling up a staggering 51 percent of the next financial year’s external debt redemptions.
No it doesn't rise by 400b, the government decided to buy half https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ruto-vows-to-buy-back-half-of-kenya-s-2-billion-bond-this-year-1.1936611 of the maturing bond . That's why equity bank are being coerced to purchase $500m worth of euro at the prevailing rate, with the threat of kra business and deposit withdraw(I am privy to the negotiations in a very minor capacity), KCB doesnt have strong enough balance sheet and neither coop. The only bank that can swing $250m is NCBA.Fact is total debt servicing this year rise by 400b.200b how when dollar is 140 n could end up 150..hk wacha za ovyohttps://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-gets-300-proposals-on-settling-2b-eurobond-4246334
In the Draft Budget Estimates for the financial year 2023/24, the Treasury has budgeted Ksh241.75 billion ($1.75 billion) for the maturing bond, gobbling up a staggering 51 percent of the next financial year’s external debt redemptions.
No it doesn't rise by 400b, the government decided to buy half https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ruto-vows-to-buy-back-half-of-kenya-s-2-billion-bond-this-year-1.1936611 of the maturing bond . That's why equity bank are being coerced to purchase $500m worth of euro at the prevailing rate, with the threat of kra business and deposit withdraw(I am privy to the negotiations in a very minor capacity), KCB doesnt have strong enough balance sheet and neither coop. The only bank that can swing $250m is NCBA.Fact is total debt servicing this year rise by 400b.200b how when dollar is 140 n could end up 150..hk wacha za ovyohttps://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-gets-300-proposals-on-settling-2b-eurobond-4246334
In the Draft Budget Estimates for the financial year 2023/24, the Treasury has budgeted Ksh241.75 billion ($1.75 billion) for the maturing bond, gobbling up a staggering 51 percent of the next financial year’s external debt redemptions.
The rest either they'll rollover at higher rate or restructure. Anyhow having committed to repurchase half, they have bought themselves breathing room.
The down grade https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-kenya-outlook-to-negative-affirms-at-b-20-07-2023#:~:text=Fitch%20Ratings%20%2D%20Hong%20Kong%20%2D%2020,the%20IDR%20at%20'B'. will only worsen the debt repayment options.
Crisis postponed??
State is captured by people close or within the government. KK if they were serious about state capture, they'd have dismantled tools of state capture i.e regulatory and policy formulation. Instead everything is intact so that its captured by the new elites, case in point is KNTC.Predictably the fiscal strain is only getting worse. Populist demand economic interventions don't spur economic growth case in point hustler fund. Govt is borrowing at 16% but its suppose to lend at 8% to hustlers, this clearly isnt sustainable https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/cheap-loans-dry-up-as-hustler-fund-budget-cut-to-sh5bn--4418612 .
KK regime had a golden opportunity to cut spending to stabilize macros, the spending cuts would have been painful especially to tenderprenurs and other leeches. But within 6 months capital would have started flowing to the private sector spurring economic growth. Now 6 months down the road government is borrowing at 12% short term and 16% long term and rising. Populist initiatives like hustler funds are hemorrhaging money with little benefit to overall economy.
In a nutshell kk regime problem isn't opposition, its the economy.
Default loading.
What's more important and crucial is market reaction. Government isnt able to borrow longterm and even shortterm now its at 15% plus interest rate. As it is now government wont be able to rollover eurobond. Its increasingly likely that kenya will default,QuoteDefault loading.
What is your opinion on what Ndii is doing?
Uhuru’s debt legacy nightmare. A trillion domestic redemption in 2023. It’s a miracle we’ve not defaulted. Foreign redemptions double in 2024. If US rates don’t ease for markets to open for frontier economies…its a wing and a prayer. Over to you churchgoers. pic.twitter.com/P0noP5U7D1
— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) October 29, 2023
What's more important and crucial is market reaction. Government isnt able to borrow longterm and even shortterm now its at 15% plus interest rate. As it is now government wont be able to rollover eurobond. Its increasingly likely that kenya will default,QuoteDefault loading.
What is your opinion on what Ndii is doing?Uhuru’s debt legacy nightmare. A trillion domestic redemption in 2023. It’s a miracle we’ve not defaulted. Foreign redemptions double in 2024. If US rates don’t ease for markets to open for frontier economies…its a wing and a prayer. Over to you churchgoers. pic.twitter.com/P0noP5U7D1
— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) October 29, 2023
What should we expect if kenya default?
Big chunk of debt is domestic owned, will this take banks down?What's more important and crucial is market reaction. Government isnt able to borrow longterm and even shortterm now its at 15% plus interest rate. As it is now government wont be able to rollover eurobond. Its increasingly likely that kenya will default,QuoteDefault loading.
What is your opinion on what Ndii is doing?Uhuru’s debt legacy nightmare. A trillion domestic redemption in 2023. It’s a miracle we’ve not defaulted. Foreign redemptions double in 2024. If US rates don’t ease for markets to open for frontier economies…its a wing and a prayer. Over to you churchgoers. pic.twitter.com/P0noP5U7D1
— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) October 29, 2023
Incase of default (local debt) the treasury bills would be restructured and new ones would be issued. Deposit wouldn't be confiscated unless the restructuring resulted in banks rans e.g chase bank.
The money in banks will be frozen and Govt will use it to offset debt and run the public sector.
You will have a limit of how much one can withdraw daily, weekly and monthly .
When money is out circulation the economy will depreciate .
Investors will also get hold of the news before and there will be capital flight . Then Kenya will go to a recession , possibilty of even a Government shutdown .What should we expect if kenya default?
Big chunk of debt is domestic owned, will this take banks down?What's more important and crucial is market reaction. Government isnt able to borrow longterm and even shortterm now its at 15% plus interest rate. As it is now government wont be able to rollover eurobond. Its increasingly likely that kenya will default,QuoteDefault loading.
What is your opinion on what Ndii is doing?Uhuru’s debt legacy nightmare. A trillion domestic redemption in 2023. It’s a miracle we’ve not defaulted. Foreign redemptions double in 2024. If US rates don’t ease for markets to open for frontier economies…its a wing and a prayer. Over to you churchgoers. pic.twitter.com/P0noP5U7D1
— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) October 29, 2023
Incase of default (local debt) the treasury bills would be restructured and new ones would be issued. Deposit wouldn't be confiscated unless the restructuring resulted in banks rans e.g chase bank.
The money in banks will be frozen and Govt will use it to offset debt and run the public sector.
You will have a limit of how much one can withdraw daily, weekly and monthly .
When money is out circulation the economy will depreciate .
Investors will also get hold of the news before and there will be capital flight . Then Kenya will go to a recession , possibilty of even a Government shutdown .What should we expect if kenya default?
Big chunk of debt is domestic owned, will this take banks down?What's more important and crucial is market reaction. Government isnt able to borrow longterm and even shortterm now its at 15% plus interest rate. As it is now government wont be able to rollover eurobond. Its increasingly likely that kenya will default,QuoteDefault loading.
What is your opinion on what Ndii is doing?Uhuru’s debt legacy nightmare. A trillion domestic redemption in 2023. It’s a miracle we’ve not defaulted. Foreign redemptions double in 2024. If US rates don’t ease for markets to open for frontier economies…its a wing and a prayer. Over to you churchgoers. pic.twitter.com/P0noP5U7D1
— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) October 29, 2023