2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I accept the fact that in Kenya tribe is a very strong indicator of a person's political ideology, In the US, you can guess the political ideology of a person based on their race, education, gender and where they reside. Having said that, I believe that a politicians job is to change or maintain that ideology to their favor.  Many people predicted that Obama could not win because of his color but Obama managed to change that proved many people wrong.  This is the reason why I do not accept the notion that in Kenya presidential election can be predicted months before the elections just by plugging the candidates tribe and adjusting the previous voting numbers accordingly.  One can close their eyes and cross a busy highway twice without being hit by a care but that does not mean they are a genius as to matters of crossing roads with eyes closed. 

No question tribe is king.  I think in Kenya, it overwhelms every other factor rendering them inconsequential.  A good pollster should factor that into their sampling data. 

It is tribal.  But how tribal?  You figure that out by polling.  Historical data can be used to normalize the result. 

It's a bit like weather forecasting.  Historical data by itself does not tell you what's likely to happen tomorrow other than that it is probably summer weather.  You want to capture the current readings of relevant weather variables, then you can use those in combination with historical data to make a reliable forecast.

[RV Pundit]

Yeap the day pollster will capture tribe is the day they'll become more accurate esp in comsopolitan areas.

[RV Pundit]

Arranged election by clan elders for peace & harmony. This time nothing changed. The tribal maths for Mandera is Somali 97.6% (Gurre 50%,Degodia 28%,Hawiya 15%),Gabra,others 2%. Now like in 2013 clans have met and endorsed the guys on FP led by former PC (which support Jubilee). Basically Mandera is fight btw Jubilee allied Forntier party and Jubilee party (current leadership who've defied elders). There is no NASA in there. The same is true for Isiolo & Marsabit...the fight is btw Jubilee & FP.

Wajir -Somali 98% (Degodia, 46%,Ogaden 26%, Ajuran 20%) Gabra &others(2%) - NASA has headstart because Ahmed the current governor comes from largest clan - Degodia- so his lineup may win. I am yet to find who Jubilee fielded.

Garisaa -Majority Ogaden clan- Jubilee has headstart because while former Garissa district is fight btw Maalim & mohammud family (Duale) - in Dujis - Yusuf Haji has no competition and support Jubilee. So Jubilee takes Garissa.

Pundit, what is the mystery behind the excellent Jubilee performance in Mandera viz the rest of NFD, where the ethnic composition is basically the same? I smelt a rat in 2013 but it seems your MOAS maintain 90% washout.

[RV Pundit]

Isaac may poll better than 15% - very unlikely - he is only "popular" in drier parts of Bomet - chepalungu - but where I come from - Konoin- he'd be lucky to get 5%. NASA of course will be lucky to get 10%. As regard Narok - I think Jubilee will do better - Purko superiority complex is repelling everyone else.

Pundit is right about Narok County. Tunai will win not because he has anything good or he is liked by the people but because the purko have alienated the small clans besides fielding two candidates both in Nasa (ntutu and musuni). As far as the presidential election Nasa is still leading but jubilee is worker way harder to improve its numbers. In the neighboring bomet, jubilee is still ahead. Isaac  (who I like very much) will lose but not by a huge margin like the one pundit is predicting.

[Globalcitizen12]

http://saharareporters.com/2017/06/20/buhari-suffers-speech-impairment-london

[Globalcitizen12]

polls show that Raila is way behind Uhuru

[RV Pundit]

Western in polls is intriguing - Raila seem to be doing below bar - 60% with Uhuru at 30% - otherwise northern kenya figures looks about right - also COAST is showing Jubilee has made some inroads.

polls show that Raila is way behind Uhuru

[Globalcitizen12]

Yeah raila needs to tighten his campaigns in his strongholds ..I see a 57 win for Uhuru

[RV Pundit]

I have been waiting for opinion polls to cross-check figures before realizing MOAS but unlike 2013 there is nothing come
Star has one that Uhuru is leading raila by 10% points...regional figures are wild..Meru for example - Uhuru has 53% while Raila has 33% - hard to believe - just as is equal hard to believe uhuru has 33% of Kitui.
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/06/27/uhuru-still-ahead-of-raila-in-poll_c1586322

[RV Pundit]

Governor race
Independents (2)   
Jubilee   (19)
ODM(7)
Too close(18)
WIPER(1)    

Total 47

[Nefertiti]

What's the pass mark? - I expect you to fail - excluding the "too close to call". Places like Tharaka Nithi have clan issues you haven't considered. Ragwa (NARC-K) likely winner.

Meru I stick with Munya - Meru won't have an outsider (Ruto) lorded over them by Kikuyus. Uhuru has actually cowed from endorsing Kiraitu & Jubilee.

Turkana ODM. Jubilee has delayed oil bill to avoid trouble but this will not save Munyes.

[RV Pundit]

I think for governors - those that delivered are safe - someone like Prof Chepkwony of kericho - or Tolgos of ElgeyoMarakwet - I am no longer sure of Mutua (although he delivered he got ambitious & fought wiper - that may cost him like Peter Kenneth debacle).

As for others...those that failed..then clan or tribal consideration will be key. I don't see Munya beat Kiraitu backed by Imentis. I also don't see Rangwa beating Chuka's meru. Just look at the numbers.

Turkana the same thing - Turkana Oil may be a factor - but consensus from most turkana leaders is that current governor Nanok has nothing to show for 50B Turkana has received. I expect Munyes & Senate Speaker plus all those Mps backing them to roll over Nanok.

Those Too Close to call - we will have to make a final call either way before election date - this my first go at this.

What's the pass mark? - I expect you to fail - excluding the "too close to call". Places like Tharaka Nithi have clan issues you haven't considered. Ragwa (NARC-K) likely winner.

Meru I stick with Munya - Meru won't have an outsider (Ruto) lorded over them by Kikuyus. Uhuru has actually cowed from endorsing Kiraitu & Jubilee.

Turkana ODM. Jubilee has delayed oil bill to avoid trouble but this will not save Munyes.

[RV Pundit]

MOAS as of 30th June 2017
--Update
 -- I have increased Jubilee vote in Bungoma, Tranzoia & Narok - also small upward adjustment in Gusii & coast.
 -- I have increased NASA votes in Nakuru
 
--Next major update - I think Other Candidates - Abduba Dida & Ekuru - have totally failed to catch national attention - and if they don't participate in the national debate - I have to cull their numbers.

[RV Pundit]

Infotrak Uhuru leads with 48% against Raila 43% with 8% undecided; look like if we split undecided; Infotrak would mirror MOAS; 52% versus 47%.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001245478/president-uhuru-leads-in-latest-opinion-polls

[Globalcitizen12]

Raila needs a Miracle to win. may be a runoff is possible..

[RV Pundit]

This already is a run-off; I don't think bumping Dida, Nyaga & Ekuru off will improve Raila fortunes..they are all combined polling 1%. The problem for Raila is dealing with combined GEMA+Kalenjin base who account for 43-45 (depending on turn out)..and so Uhuru just need 5% of the vote...if we expect about 16M votes...5% is just 800,000 votes UhuRuto need to win from all over the country. UhuRuto will get about half of that from Northern Kenya where they are popular - all opinion polls I have seen consistently shows Uhuru win 60% to 40% - and we know ODM outside Wajir & Garissa - has no game in Mandera, Isiolo & Marsabit. Before you go to Coast, Gusii& Kuria & Matusa - Uhuruto would already have surpassed 50%.

There is only one way to beat UhuRuto - splinter GEMA+Kalenjin. Isaac Ruto lame attempt is too little.

Raila needs a Miracle to win. may be a runoff is possible..

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I am thinking just from a quick scan of the data, that NASA strongholds have registered a higher number of new voters than the jubilant compared to 2013.  That is the impression I get just from a quick scan.

[Kichwa]

The generals tend to fight the last war.  That's why they never saw Trump coming in the USA.

I am thinking just from a quick scan of the data, that NASA strongholds have registered a higher number of new voters than the jubilant compared to 2013.  That is the impression I get just from a quick scan.

[RV Pundit]

Ambitho's stew -- seem Somalis are pretty much decided on voting UhuRuto. Uhuru has improved in Coast by 10% points. Eastern also looking good. RiftValley ( I can understand it hard to sample due to many tribes residing there and Nairobi figures are hard to believe. Nyanza and Central are about right.

Western is interesting - because all opinions polls are showing the same thing - that Uhuru is doing so well - from 5% to 30%--with 18% undecided. Would be interesting to know which counties they sample.

[Kichwa]

This elections is still wide open and I would not rely on polls at all. I am sure the candidates are not taking anything for granted.