2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[Omollo]

But Omollo, its not naivety to be prepared on both fronts. You fight the entrenchment AND you get people out to vote. I'm just saying we must get our people to the booths on that day. I'm not saying that there is nothing else to be on the lookout for.....

Of course

However if the rigging systems are in place and get out 85% turnout, they will just stuff more votes.

So NASA must get high turnout and trust me, they will. But must guard against vote stuffing, children voting and multiple voting among others. Must stop Safaricom setting up an Interceptor Node to be used to doctor results

Am watching Madaraka in Nyeri. They have decided to freeze out Raila. He's unfazed. God loves humility and Jesus warned against taking the high seat. The speeches are mostly in Gikuyu.

Now when people choose to isolate themselves, why do they later accuse others of doing that to them?

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru won by 50.5

[Kichwa]

Pundit is obnoxiously full of himself. Like Omollo said, in 2002 we all predicted Kibaki win. In 2007 we all know what happened and agreed Kibaki stole. It's only 2013 that we disagreed and still do. It is therefore a flat out lie that you are God when it comes to predicting kenya's presidential elections.  Just make your predictions like everybody else and stop the unnecessary hubris.  It is my humbly and informed opinion that NASA will win. I am in KE right now and I feel extremely optimistic about NASA's chances. Hiyo tuu.

[RV Pundit]

Kichwa - enjoy kenya and don't waste time on NASA - never gonna happen. Numbers don't lie. I always make sound arguments backed with evidence and data. Having ran the numbers I can tell you NASA win is so unlikely - Jubilee will have to score zero outisde GEMA+Kalenjin for that to happen.

9th August is exactly 2 months from now - be here - and see numbers 53%-46%-1% - margin of error +-2%.

Pundit is obnoxiously full of himself. Like Omollo said, in 2002 we all predicted Kibaki win. In 2007 we all know what happened and agreed Kibaki stole. It's only 2013 that we disagreed and still do. It is therefore a flat out lie that you are God when it comes to predicting kenya's presidential elections.  Just make your predictions like everybody else and stop the unnecessary hubris.  It is my humbly and informed opinion that NASA will win. I am in KE right now and I feel extremely optimistic about NASA's chances. Hiyo tuu .

[Kichwa]

Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions.  She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K. 

[RV Pundit]

I have always differed with many opinion polls - it for same reason I saw Trump win - Theresa may ni nani - I don't follow the news of that small island anymore.

Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions.  She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K. 

[RV Pundit]

MOAS 2017 update
Total votes: 19,647,552
Expected turn out: 86%
Total Expected Cast votes:16,827,911
Jubilee (UHURUTO) 8,873,657 (53%)   
NASA(Railonzo) 7,783,298   (46%)
Others(Abduba Dida) 170,956 (1%)

[Nefertiti]

Counties?  MPs?

MOAS 2017 update
Total votes: 19,647,552
Expected turn out: 86%
Total Expected Cast votes:16,827,911
Jubilee (UHURUTO) 8,873,657 (53%)   
NASA(Railonzo) 7,783,298   (46%)
Others(Abduba Dida) 170,956 (1%)

[RV Pundit]

Working on that...number of mps, women rep, senators and governors -each coalition will get.

Counties?  MPs?

[Kichwa]

Actually Hilary won the popular vote.

I have always differed with many opinion polls - it for same reason I saw Trump win - Theresa may ni nani - I don't follow the news of that small island anymore.

Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions.  She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K. 

[Omollo]

There was never any doubt in me that Teresa may would lose to Jeremy. The Anti-Trump wind blowing in Europe is so strong you can feel it toppling bigots like May.

I am today sitting in a French Ice Cream Bar near Geneva (French Side) enjoying the breeze as news of Macron's landslide victory in the parliamentary polls comes in. The quantum of the win has not even been established and may well grant him an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

Actually Hilary won the popular vote.

I have always differed with many opinion polls - it for same reason I saw Trump win - Theresa may ni nani - I don't follow the news of that small island anymore.

Pundit, Ask Theresa May about predictions.  She counted her chicken before they were hatched just like you are. I do not believe you have predicted more elections than those who were wrong in USA and now U.K. 

[Kadame5]

Pundit, if things are as solid for Jubilee as you believe, why is Uhuru desperately trying to woo Kisii? For a man with this thing in the bag, Uhuru sure seems less than perfectly confident.

[Globalcitizen12]

Kadame5
He still needs 4 percent and control of the Assembly to terrorize NASA

[RV Pundit]

I don't think 53% is solid enough when you're taking about 50% plus 1 - higher turn out matching Jubilee zones can wipe out that advantage. Jubilee is not desperate for Kisii vote - Jubilee are on campaign trail carpet bombing all the counties - today they are in West Pokot - tomorrow Kericho then Bomet then etc - and in each county they'll address issues they've know matters - from local politician & intelligence.

Obviously Jubilee are keen to retain their 25% of Gusii vote - and keep those 5-10 mps that got elected. That would translate about 1.5% of national vote - with Gusii contributing 5% of total votes.

I know as Raila supporters - you'd love to have Gusii vote 100% for NASA - but it simply aint happening - Jubilee have Gusii leader with lots of influences - starting from Obure/Nyachae/etc.

Pundit, if things are as solid for Jubilee as you believe, why is Uhuru desperately trying to woo Kisii? For a man with this thing in the bag, Uhuru sure seems less than perfectly confident.

[Kadame5]

Kadame5
He still needs 4 percent and control of the Assembly to terrorize NASA

Have you seen Pundit's predictions? Uhuru already has minimum 53% which could go up to 55%. NASA have no path to victory. And Uhuru is getting something like 60% parliamentary majority. That sure sounds "in the bag" to me. If I were Uhuru and believed this, I would not be throwing my money at Kisiis or any other suitors that were playing hard-to-get.

[Kadame5]

I don't think 53% is solid enough when you're taking about 50% plus 1 - higher turn out matching Jubilee zones can wipe out that advantage. Jubilee is not desperate for Kisii vote - Jubilee are on campaign trail carpet bombing all the counties - today they are in West Pokot - tomorrow Kericho then Bomet then etc - and in each county they'll address issues they've know matters - from local politician & intelligence.

Obviously Jubilee are keen to retain their 25% of Gusii vote - and keep those 5-10 mps that got elected. That would translate about 1.5% of national vote - with Gusii contributing 5% of total votes.

I know as Raila supporters - you'd love to have Gusii vote 100% for NASA - but it simply aint happening - Jubilee have Gusii leader with lots of influences - starting from Obure/Nyachae/etc.

Pundit, if things are as solid for Jubilee as you believe, why is Uhuru desperately trying to woo Kisii? For a man with this thing in the bag, Uhuru sure seems less than perfectly confident.

It's not just campaigning that he's doing though. It's money too. It's the money that makes me think Uhuru is more than keen to get Kisii votes, and not just the 25% you believe he is retaining. Those smaller seats, MPs, I really don't think can be impacted by national politics. Those seats get distributed according to local fitina and politics.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru is aiming at 70% plus one . I don't know why - because 50% plus 1 single vote- is more than enough. But you're right I don't see how Uhuru can lose this with 47% of expected cast votes expected to come from GEMA +Kalenjin. I have put the data out there.... so you can disprove.

Does Uhuru knows about MOAS ? Maybe not? Otherwise he'd save his money.In 2013 - MOAS predicted Gusii vote to the DOT. And if I am not wrong we engaged with you on this so many times. But I read the tea leaves...and predicted CORD would get 68 with Jubilee 23%...and the verdict was absolutely totally completely accurate.

I don't know about know (still watching it) but something tells me Uhuru will improve.....not actually regress like you say...in any case any improvement or regression will be marginal...nothing significant has happened btw 2013 and now...it a re-match.

Have you seen Pundit's predictions? Uhuru already has minimum 53% which could go up to 55%. NASA have no path to victory. And Uhuru is getting something like 60% parliamentary majority. That sure sounds "in the bag" to me. If I were Uhuru and believed this, I would not be throwing my money at Kisii's or any other suitors playing hard-to-get.

[Globalcitizen12]

I would because if I get 65 percent even better. A majority of 70 percent even more sweet because it gives you ability to expand legislative agenda. If Uhuru wanted to amend Constitution then with such majority he can do it without sweating

[RV Pundit]

Obviously Gusii have never been happy (and they shouldn't) about PEV against their people by Kalenjin (Ruto people) when they weren't part of Kibaki rigging and then fact there IDPS integrated with relatives & were forgotten. I guess Uhuru did the right thing. Gusii deserve the 800M votes. Kakamega got more for Mumias. Bungoma got more for Webuye. Each county is getting something because Uhuru is the incumbent and can direct money be spent anywhere.

It's not just campaigning that he's doing though. It's money too. It's the money that makes me think Uhuru is more than keen to get Kisii votes, and not just the 25% you believe he is retaining. Those smaller seats, MPs, I really don't think can be impacted by national politics. Those seats get distributed according to local fitina and politics.

[Kadame5]

Uhuru is aiming at 70% plus one . I don't know why - because 50% plus 1 single vote- is more than enough. But you're right I don't see how Uhuru can lose this with 47% of expected cast votes expected to come from GEMA +Kalenjin. I have put the data out there.... so you can disprove.

Does Uhuru knows about MOAS ? Maybe not? Otherwise he'd save his money.In 2013 - MOAS predicted Gusii vote to the DOT. And if I am not wrong we engaged with you on this so many times. But I read the tea leaves...and predicted CORD would get 68 with Jubilee 28%...and the verdict was absolutely totally accurate.

Have you seen Pundit's predictions? Uhuru already has minimum 53% which could go up to 55%. NASA have no path to victory. And Uhuru is getting something like 60% parliamentary majority. That sure sounds "in the bag" to me. If I were Uhuru and believed this, I would not be throwing my money at Kisii's or any other suitors playing hard-to-get.

Pundit, yes I remember nipate conversations. It was I who posted that tidbit on nipate.com about Gusii voting patterns re elderly vs youth and urban vs rural. I engaged with Energizer about Gusii votes, and the very moment Jubilee dumped cash super close to the elections and got its percentage up, I admitted so, on nipate. This was VERRY close to the election when the shift happened. Before then, CORD was well over 80%. And when the shift happened, it was tangible, you could actually talk to people in shags who were openly planning to vote for Jubilee after getting 50 bob. Lots of alcoholics, no kidding!  This time, I have no access to the pulse of the community and I'm relying on the assessment of others but apart from one Raila-loathing nephew of mine, I honestly have not spoken to a single Kisii who is either openly saying they will vote Jubilee or predicting votes for Jubilee. If I were home this past year, I'd have my own feel for things, both Gusii and Luhyas, but alas, I don't.