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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Dear Mami on October 31, 2017, 08:31:13 PM

Title: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on October 31, 2017, 08:31:13 PM
I'm seeing NASA people online say that the People's Assembly is more or less like the organization that lead to the freedom charter in SA. Combining this with bits from Raila's two interviews on international media, I am wondering if the longer-term goal is a declaration of independence? Considering that Raila says this shall remain in force until a credible election is held, I am wondering if he is saying: elections or secession, take your pick...but without saying so? He may be building some ground of legitimacy for other actions in the future. Indeed that name People's Assembly has a ring to it resembling the touted People's Republic.  :o

Jubilee seems to interpret it as a concession speech. Personally, if anything I've ever observed about RAO is any indication, I have strong doubts.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Globalcitizen12 on October 31, 2017, 09:21:43 PM
NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: RV Pundit on November 01, 2017, 09:21:26 AM
No leverage.Secession is asking military to burst your skulls.Deal with Boinett first
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on November 01, 2017, 11:49:20 AM
Watching/listening to Otiende Amollo explain the statement to these international journalists, I am now even more convinced that this People's Assembly is the beginning of a Kenyan separatist/secessionist movement.


He says the aim is credible elections but if you listen to the ideas he is putting forth, he is talking about people withdrawing sovereignty from the govt in some form at some point. They are careful to avoid terms that at the moment would appear illegal but eventually, my view is that is they expect to make declarations of independence (again, my view: he doesn't say so).
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on November 01, 2017, 11:56:04 AM
NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold
You may just be right.

What I see happening here is the creation of a body that can earn international recognition as a legitimate representative of people from regions that feel alienated from the current govt/state. This is the game here. I may be wrong and it seems radical, but I really don't think I'm misreading things.

Whether it succeeds is something else.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: vooke on November 01, 2017, 12:13:40 PM
Theres little NASWA can do in the next 3 weeks.


Cant agitate for electoral reforms unless theres invalidation. Ive heard Magaya claim that they are not interested in petitioning ,though Im doubtful if its not another ruse, and that in any case, only implementation of their irreducible minimums would get them back to the ballot bla bla. So whos going to bark against IEBC with no election in sight?

But they are also hellbent on fresh elections,and the only other Avenue is perhaps resignation of Uhuruto. Nothing short of 2007 grade violence would bring them close to this.

These are hard times for anyone trying to study NASWA tea leaves.

Itll even be harder if SCOK upholds the results.

But dreams are always there and some are wont to remind us that Hosni won with over 80% and was toppled in under 90 days thereafter.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on November 01, 2017, 12:25:08 PM
I doubt anyone is interested in an Egyptian revolution in Kenya with its sharp ethnic divisions. If someone is trying to start a revolution, it is one of separation/independence. Anything else in this ethnically divided country will not work.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Empedocles on November 01, 2017, 12:28:09 PM
NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold
You may just be right.

What I see happening here is the creation of a body that can earn international recognition as a legitimate representative of people from regions that feel alienated from the current govt/state. This is the game here. I may be wrong and it seems radical, but I really don't think I'm misreading things.

Whether it succeeds is something else.
I'm also of the same opinion that Rao's looking for a way bring up secession and become king of the castle.

At the moment, he has a lot of support from his ardent supporters but, and this is important, the governors, MPs, etc. from the affected regions, not knowing where they'll get money to steal (not to mention salaries plus benefits), will be very wary of such a move. They'll be cutting off their own livelihoods before they've even started recouping their campaign expenses.

I doubt it'll go very far when the true implications of secession sink in and they'll start abandoning him.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on November 01, 2017, 12:35:41 PM
NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold
You may just be right.

What I see happening here is the creation of a body that can earn international recognition as a legitimate representative of people from regions that feel alienated from the current govt/state. This is the game here. I may be wrong and it seems radical, but I really don't think I'm misreading things.

Whether it succeeds is something else.
I'm also of the same opinion that Rao's looking for a way bring up secession and become king of the castle.

At the moment, he has a lot of support from his ardent supporters but, and this is important, the governors, MPs, etc. from the affected regions, not knowing where they'll get money to steal (not to mention salaries plus benefits), will be very wary of such a move. They'll be cutting off their own livelihoods before they've even started recouping their campaign expenses.

I doubt it'll go very far when the true implications of secession sink in and they'll start abandoning him.
I agree with most of your points. But I think the push for secession is not really RAO but younger NASA members. RAO probably aims to use it as leverage only. I agree it is an uphill task. Far more likely to fail than it is to succeed. Glad someone else can see what to me is now very clear. Amollo is describing an organization that will be able to hold its own referenda outside IEBC. That's separatist talk if I ever heard any.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Empedocles on November 01, 2017, 02:04:05 PM
Here's David Ndii, from the warm comfort of his home, passport and visas at the ready, fanning the flames of secession:

Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: RV Pundit on November 01, 2017, 02:06:32 PM
When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Empedocles on November 01, 2017, 02:10:44 PM
When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.
Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on November 01, 2017, 02:19:10 PM
When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.
Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.
It's difficult in general to charge people with non-existent crimes as well.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Empedocles on November 01, 2017, 03:28:06 PM
When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.
Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.
It's difficult in general to charge people with non-existent crimes as well.
Ndii is dog-whistling, just like Trump to the white supremacists. Very hard to pin down legally. The message is crystal clear.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Dear Mami on November 01, 2017, 03:51:53 PM
When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.
Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.
It's difficult in general to charge people with non-existent crimes as well.
Ndii is dog-whistling, just like Trump to the white supremacists. Very hard to pin down legally. The message is crystal clear.
Even if you could pin it down, the point is it's not a crime to create a secessionist movement in Kenya. It is in fact a right already defended by the Court of Appeal at least once before.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: RV Pundit on November 01, 2017, 03:59:48 PM
You can talk about it all day - trying to implement it - is something else. Ask Spain. No country in planet earth will allow secession that easily. This is a crazy idea that will led to lots of tears, pain and no secession. Don't even try it. Don't even think about it. Unless you're ready to pay the ultimate price.
Even if you could pin it down, the point is it's not a crime to create a secessionist movement in Kenya. It is in fact a right already defended by the Court of Appeal at least once before.
Title: Re: NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 01, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
Watching/listening to Otiende Amollo explain the statement to these international journalists, I am now even more convinced that this People's Assembly is the beginning of a Kenyan separatist/secessionist movement.


He says the aim is credible elections but if you listen to the ideas he is putting forth, he is talking about people withdrawing sovereignty from the govt in some form at some point. They are careful to avoid terms that at the moment would appear illegal but eventually, my view is that is they expect to make declarations of independence (again, my view: he doesn't say so).

Otiende Amollo is a really together guy.  Yes, they seem to be sympathetic to secession.  At a minimum they are working out how to render the government basically meaningless or redundant in certain parts of the country.  The national government holds the purse strings, so it may be forced to use those.  That is illegal.  But the jubilant believes he operates at a level where whatever he does is automatically legal.