NASA Statement: Concession or Secession?

[Dear Mami]

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I'm seeing NASA people online say that the People's Assembly is more or less like the organization that lead to the freedom charter in SA. Combining this with bits from Raila's two interviews on international media, I am wondering if the longer-term goal is a declaration of independence? Considering that Raila says this shall remain in force until a credible election is held, I am wondering if he is saying: elections or secession, take your pick...but without saying so? He may be building some ground of legitimacy for other actions in the future. Indeed that name People's Assembly has a ring to it resembling the touted People's Republic. 

Jubilee seems to interpret it as a concession speech. Personally, if anything I've ever observed about RAO is any indication, I have strong doubts.

[Globalcitizen12]

NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold

[RV Pundit]

No leverage.Secession is asking military to burst your skulls.Deal with Boinett first

[Dear Mami]

Watching/listening to Otiende Amollo explain the statement to these international journalists, I am now even more convinced that this People's Assembly is the beginning of a Kenyan separatist/secessionist movement.

He says the aim is credible elections but if you listen to the ideas he is putting forth, he is talking about people withdrawing sovereignty from the govt in some form at some point. They are careful to avoid terms that at the moment would appear illegal but eventually, my view is that is they expect to make declarations of independence (again, my view: he doesn't say so).

[Dear Mami]

NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold

You may just be right.

What I see happening here is the creation of a body that can earn international recognition as a legitimate representative of people from regions that feel alienated from the current govt/state. This is the game here. I may be wrong and it seems radical, but I really don't think I'm misreading things.

Whether it succeeds is something else.

[vooke]

[Dear Mami]

I doubt anyone is interested in an Egyptian revolution in Kenya with its sharp ethnic divisions. If someone is trying to start a revolution, it is one of separation/independence. Anything else in this ethnically divided country will not work.

[Empedocles]

NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold

You may just be right.

What I see happening here is the creation of a body that can earn international recognition as a legitimate representative of people from regions that feel alienated from the current govt/state. This is the game here. I may be wrong and it seems radical, but I really don't think I'm misreading things.

Whether it succeeds is something else.

I'm also of the same opinion that Rao's looking for a way bring up secession and become king of the castle.

At the moment, he has a lot of support from his ardent supporters but, and this is important, the governors, MPs, etc. from the affected regions, not knowing where they'll get money to steal (not to mention salaries plus benefits), will be very wary of such a move. They'll be cutting off their own livelihoods before they've even started recouping their campaign expenses.

I doubt it'll go very far when the true implications of secession sink in and they'll start abandoning him.

[Dear Mami]

NASA is done. They have no options. Knowing raila he will continue with protests and most of his supporters will get tired and fold

You may just be right.

What I see happening here is the creation of a body that can earn international recognition as a legitimate representative of people from regions that feel alienated from the current govt/state. This is the game here. I may be wrong and it seems radical, but I really don't think I'm misreading things.

Whether it succeeds is something else.

I'm also of the same opinion that Rao's looking for a way bring up secession and become king of the castle.

At the moment, he has a lot of support from his ardent supporters but, and this is important, the governors, MPs, etc. from the affected regions, not knowing where they'll get money to steal (not to mention salaries plus benefits), will be very wary of such a move. They'll be cutting off their own livelihoods before they've even started recouping their campaign expenses.

I doubt it'll go very far when the true implications of secession sink in and they'll start abandoning him.

I agree with most of your points. But I think the push for secession is not really RAO but younger NASA members. RAO probably aims to use it as leverage only. I agree it is an uphill task. Far more likely to fail than it is to succeed. Glad someone else can see what to me is now very clear. Amollo is describing an organization that will be able to hold its own referenda outside IEBC. That's separatist talk if I ever heard any.

[Empedocles]

Here's David Ndii, from the warm comfort of his home, passport and visas at the ready, fanning the flames of secession:

“We want guns! Give us guns! We want guns! Give us guns!”
Kenya and the politics of provocation https://t.co/oX02RuS3gm

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) November 1, 2017

[RV Pundit]

When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.

[Empedocles]

When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.

Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.

[Dear Mami]

When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.

Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.

It's difficult in general to charge people with non-existent crimes as well.

[Empedocles]

When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.

Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.

It's difficult in general to charge people with non-existent crimes as well.

Ndii is dog-whistling, just like Trump to the white supremacists. Very hard to pin down legally. The message is crystal clear.

[Dear Mami]

When folks start facing treason - this seccession nonsense will disappear. Ask MRC.

Difficult to charge NASA bigwigs with treason.

Impunity (which Jubilee takes full advantage of anyways) works both ways.

It's difficult in general to charge people with non-existent crimes as well.

Ndii is dog-whistling, just like Trump to the white supremacists. Very hard to pin down legally. The message is crystal clear.

Even if you could pin it down, the point is it's not a crime to create a secessionist movement in Kenya. It is in fact a right already defended by the Court of Appeal at least once before.

[RV Pundit]

You can talk about it all day - trying to implement it - is something else. Ask Spain. No country in planet earth will allow secession that easily. This is a crazy idea that will led to lots of tears, pain and no secession. Don't even try it. Don't even think about it. Unless you're ready to pay the ultimate price.

Even if you could pin it down, the point is it's not a crime to create a secessionist movement in Kenya. It is in fact a right already defended by the Court of Appeal at least once before.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Watching/listening to Otiende Amollo explain the statement to these international journalists, I am now even more convinced that this People's Assembly is the beginning of a Kenyan separatist/secessionist movement.

He says the aim is credible elections but if you listen to the ideas he is putting forth, he is talking about people withdrawing sovereignty from the govt in some form at some point. They are careful to avoid terms that at the moment would appear illegal but eventually, my view is that is they expect to make declarations of independence (again, my view: he doesn't say so).

Otiende Amollo is a really together guy.  Yes, they seem to be sympathetic to secession.  At a minimum they are working out how to render the government basically meaningless or redundant in certain parts of the country.  The national government holds the purse strings, so it may be forced to use those.  That is illegal.  But the jubilant believes he operates at a level where whatever he does is automatically legal.